Kentucky Jockey Club 2025 History & Analysis
- 6 days ago
- 9 min read
Updated: 6 days ago
Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes
November 29, 2025
8.5f Churchill Downs
In the past decade (2014–2024), this race has produced 27 Derby starters, though no outright winners—highlighting its role as a talent identifier rather than a direct Derby path. The last colt to complete the KYJC/Derby double was Supersaver back in 2009.
With a purse at $400,000, it's part of the "Stars of Tomorrow II" card, a juveniles-only program launched in 2005 that has produced over 50 Grade 1 winners, including recent Derby champions.
Year | Winner | Trainer / Jockey | 1st Call | Notable Details | Dosage |
2015 | Airoforce | Mark Casse/Julien Leparoux | 4th | Stalked pace; 2016 Derby scratch | Chefs: 4.00 ANZ: 4.00 Scale: 8/13 Triads: 12-14-17 |
2016 | McCraken | Ian Wilkes / Brian Hernandez Jr. | 9th | Rallied from behind; 5th in 2017 Derby | Chefs: 2.43 ANZ: 3.57 Scale: 11/14 Triads: 17-22-20 |
2017 | Enticed | Kiaran McLaughlin / Junior Alvarado | 3rd | Stalked Promises Fulfilled. 14th in the Derby | Chefs: 3.00 ANZ: 3.92 Scale: 15/13 Triads: 18-8-16 |
2018 | Signalman | Kenny McPeek / Brian Hernandez Jr. | 6th | Neck win; Did not run in the Derby | Chefs: 5.40 ANZ: 6.20 Scale: 13/14 Triads: 15-17-16 |
2019 | Silver Prospector | Steve Asmussen / Ricardo Santana | 5th | Sloppy track rally; Did not run in the Derby | Chefs: 3.50 ANZ: 3.50 Scale: 12/11 Triads: 16-17-15 |
2020 | Keepmeinmind | Robertino Diodoro/David Cohen | 9th | Rear runner overtook lead. 6th place in the Derby | Chefs: 2.00 ANZ: 4.00 Scale: 13/12 Triads: 15-8-14 |
2021 | Smile Happy | Kenny McPeek / Corey Lanerie | 5th | Wide rally; 8th in the Derby | Chefs: 1.91 ANZ: 1.91 Scale: 11/13 Triads: 12-13-14 |
2022 | Instant Coffee | Brad Cox / Luis Saez | 7th | Very slow rally; Did not run in the Derby | Chefs: 3.67 ANZ: 3.67 Scale: 14/13 Triads: 17-14-16 |
2023 | Honor Marie | D. Whitworth Beckman / Ben Curtis | 8th | Last-to-first thriller; 8th in the Derby | Chefs: 3.24 ANZ: 3.71 (36 points) Scale: 7/13 Triads: 13-13-19 |
2024 | First Resort | Eoin Harty / Luis Saez | 2nd | Pressed in light snow; Never ran again. | Chefs: 2.20 ANZ: 1.67 Scale: 10/14 Triads: 14-16-18 |
This race is extremely easy to point out high quality Kentucky Derby potential players if they pull off a win here. Since we are looking at a November race at Churchill Downs at only 8.5f as opposed to a Spring race at 10f, two different types will be advantaged within the 2 different parameters.
Within the 10 winners listed above, only 2 stood out as Derby players after exiting this race - McCraken and Honor Marie. Neither of those two horses were built with any type of advantage in this short 8.5f race but managed to show off their high quality speed against their endurance capacity.
To win this race, a horse does not necessarily need to have "Derby configurations"- as a matter of fact, it could be a hinderance. But this could easily point out a very high quality horse that shows the ability to display enough speed to compete against horses who have 8.5f to 9f optimums, while holding the added extra stamina that could have otherwise watered down that speed.
This works both ways though. If a properly bred "Classic Runner" does not win or even do well in this particular race, it does not mean that he should be disregarded for the future. A huge misconception with these types of runners who trail behind at the 8.5f wire is that they are distance-limited but the reality is quite the opposite. These types are not 8.5f speedsters, they are colts who are basically just getting revved up when that wire approaches. Additionally, the speedsters are doing the opposite, they are winding down just as that 8.5f wire hits.
For instance, in 2018, Signalman won this race while the superstar Knicks Go was also in that gate with him. Knicks Go could only manage an 11th place trophy here. He wasn't built right for the race to begin with, and quite possibly, had not even grown into his own at this early stage.
Signalman had 13 races after the KJC race - he won only one of them - an 8.5f optional claimer two years later. It took Knicks Go the entire 2019 year of trial and error before he became an unstoppable monster, eventually winning the Breeders Cup Classic.
The reality of this particular prep is that it is not an easy task for the true Classic runners to succeed here, but if one could manage to pull it off, they are showing off (hidden) killer speed at a high maturity level. This would then provide evidence that the horse is not allowing his stamina to water down his speed. Competitive across the distance levels.
Basically, in terms of the Kentucky Derby and future Pool Betting, it is the ones who are NOT BUILT for this race that you will want to watch and track and if they don't pull if off, don't despair. If they do pull it off, they are high quality colts with 10f+ Classic distance.
Their build may be against the parameters of this particular race, but winning it would show major potential moving forward. There are two colts entered in this race that fit this bill (and one that is borderline).
If they ARE BUILT for this race, most likely, they have nothing for the 10f Derby race. Don't get swept up by the eventual hype and displayed speed if they hit that winner's circle. There are 3 colts entered that fit this scenario.
2025 KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB STAKES
RACE 10 - Churchill Downs
Post 1: SPICE RUNNER Asmussen/Rosario Gun Runner
DP = 0-3-11-0-0 (14) DI = 1.55 Â CD = 0.21 ANZ = 2.64
Mare Profile = 6-4-5-6-9 Â Speed = 10 Â Stamina = 15 Â Index = 0.72 Â Triads = 15-15-20
KJC Betting: ♥ ♥ KJC Race Placement: ♥ ♥ Kentucky Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥
The first of two Gun Runner (Candy Ride) colts entered here and there is simply no comparison in terms of displayed speed, determination and will to win. Zero comparison. His time could come after the Triple Crown.
Post 2: CHEROKEE NATION Baffert/Prat Not This Time
DP = 0-0-8-0-0 (8) DI = 1.00 Â CD = 0.00 ANZ = 3.00
Mare Profile = 6-9-5-7-3 Â Speed = 15 Â Stamina = 10 Â Index = 1.44 Â Triads = 20-21-15
KJC Betting: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ KJC Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ Kentucky Derby: ♥ ♥
His style of running is the reason why I give only 4 stars in betting him for this race as opposed to the 5 stars which align with the race placement in conjunction with his breeding. Even though he has a 1.00 index, his mares are completely diluting that as well as adding in the Not This Time factor. At 8.5f, he should be able to withstand it, but it mainly rides on how fast of a pace he will need to sustain in the early go of it. If allowed to reserve some of that energy early, 8.5f would be directly in his wheelhouse.
Post 3: DR. KAPUR Joseph/Jose Ortiz McKinzie
DP = 2-5-4-1-0 (12) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.67 ANZ = 2.60
Mare Profile = 8-4-3-7-7 Â Speed = 12 Â Stamina = 14 Â Index = 0.96 Â Triads = 15-14-17
KJC Betting: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ KJC Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ Kentucky Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
Proper with his configurations for this race and has shown perfect energy distribution at 6f and 7f, while the 8.5f is even better for his build. He did win both of his races in gate to wire fashion, which is not something that truly has worked well in this particular race, but he at least is holding the perfect scale to endure that distance on the lead. Better still would be if Jose held him off the lead and let someone else take that spot. Either way, he holds alot of highly advantaged points for this race and if somehow Further Ado is slightly off from his maiden, Dr. Kapur may have found himself a lucky spot. So far, this colt is running past his set-up which is good for the Road but lacks slightly for the Derby itself. (Triads off a bit.)
Post 4: SOLDIER N DIPLOMAT Asmussen/Gaffalione Army Mule
DP = 3-5-6-0-0 (14) DI = 3.67 Â CD = 0.79 ANZ = 4.33
Mare Profile = 8-7-4-4-6 Â Speed = 15 Â Stamina = 10 Â Index = 1.35 Â Triads = 19-15-14
KJC Betting: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ KJC Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ Kentucky Derby: ♥
It is very obvious that this horse is built very well for this 8.5 race. All speed up top and the mares balance shifts all the way over on the speed side as well. Disastrous for the Kentucky Derby but very advantaged in this spot.
Post 5: VERY CONNECTED McPeek/Esquivel Connect
DP = 2-6-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.63 ANZ = 3.00
Mare Profile = 8-2-4-12-5 Â Speed = 10 Â Stamina = 17 Â Index = 0.85 Â Triads = 14-18-21
KJC Betting: ♥ ♥ KJC Race Placement: ♥ Kentucky Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥
This horse is built perfectly for the 12f Belmont Stakes, therefore he would obviously have a hard time with an 8.5f race against his speedier competitors who would thrive at this distance. Since he is built for that type of endurance, the 10f Derby distance would be a cakewalk as well but unfortunately, up until this date, he has yet to display substantial speed quality in his 4 races (including turf & AWS) - so, it would stand to reason that he would struggle here and also lack in the Derby as well should he procure a gate. In terms of balance, it takes serious speed to be attached to that stamina for the Derby, but not necessarily for a 12f Belmont. Unfortunate for McPeek though, we have one more 10f Belmont at Saratoga. Very Connected is borderline for Derby based on an over-active stamina balance without counteracting with displayed speed - at this point anyway.
Post 6: FURTHER ADO Cox/Irad Ortiz Gun Runner (Candy Ride)
DP = 0-3-7-0-0 (10) DI = 1.86 Â CD = 0.30 ANZ = 3.00
Mare Profile = 7-2-5-8-6 Â Speed = 9 Â Stamina = 14 Â Index = 0.84 Â Triads = 14-15-19
KJC Betting: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ KJC Race Placement: ♥ ♥ Kentucky Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
No, he is not built correctly for this race, nor was he built correctly for his maiden blowout and he showed severe talent none-the-less. That is what we crave to see in these early preps. This horse is built wonderfully for the Kentucky Derby and that 20 length victory at Keeneland showed traces of kinship with Shared Belief with a very similar chef/anz balance. If that race wasn't a fluke, he demolishes this crew. Remember, given the exact same parameters from Ted Noffey's Futurity win, Further Ado beat him at every call and to that wire with great ease. Ted comes back and wins the Breeders Cup Juvenile, which complimented Further Ado even stronger. This guy may not be built for this race, but the talent and potential with his displayed speed is already locked in with evidence, again, with very similar dynamics with the early un-advantaged killer performances of Candy Ride's son, Shared Belief. If for some reason he is unsuccessful here (highly doubtful!) that would not alter his potential exiting this race. I adore this guy and I'm very hopeful that he follows in Shared Belief's footprints and blows us all away with a dominating future career. Candy Ride boys running like monsters so early in the game easily points to high quality and special talent. He is not an 8.5f speedster so a win here will define his dominance on the trail.
Post 7: UNIVERSE McPeek/Hernandez Global Campaign
DP = 2-6-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.63 ANZ = 3.00
Mare Profile = 11-2-4-5-12 Â Speed = 13 Â Stamina = 17 Â Index = 0.85 Â Triads = 17-11-21
KJC Betting: ♥ ♥ ♥ KJC Race Placement: ♥ ♥ ♥ Kentucky Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
He's in the same boat as Very Connected in terms of stamina, but with much more displayed speed attached to it. McPeek has two entries that are built for longer distances but this guy has at least shown a bit of speed to go with it at this early stage in their 2 year old campaign. Should he make a splash in this particular race, he would be one to definitely track. He reminds me of Country House - kinda quiet - not flashy - but holding the goods for a later date. If he can somehow place ahead of Further Ado (and/or the speed guys Cherokee Nation and Soldier), then he has something over and above his configurations while still holding 10f capability. That would be highly meaningful for this horse moving forward. For a very good comparison, this guy is built very much like Forte, same type of balance with a bit of extra stamina on the side.