It's the Whole Chart that Makes the Colt

CURLIN

This is the time of year when you see all types of "pedigree gurus" out there who can't see past the first and second generations.

They will talk at length about what those sires and mares accomplished on the track themselves as if that has anything to do with what they did in the breeding shed.

They pay no mind to the mating couple together, opting to focus on the individual, completely discounting the entire full chart. These are the same people who scoff at dosage, mainly because they have no clue how to read those numbers or to combine those numbers. No clue at all.

Nothing makes me cringe more than reading those half-assed pedigree analyses on the Derby contenders. Not only do they neglect generations of influences, they pay no mind as to how it relates to this specific race. The 10f race on the Spring Bias at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.

We are going to take a deep dive into four colts who are running in the 151st Kentucky Derby.

This will illustrate the importance of understanding that it is not simply the 1st or 2nd generation that defines the thoroughbred.

IT IS THE ENTIRE CHART and THE COMBINATION OF THE INGREDIENTS THAT BUILD THE COLT. It is then attached to this specific race.

The track bias at Churchill Downs in the beginning of May is affected by the rains of April. The entire chart of the colt will tell you if he aligns. Just because a certain sire or a certain mare produced a few note-worthy colts who had gone a certain distance has absolutely NO BEARING at all.

Unless the colt has the exact same set of parents, his inheritance will never ever match any of his siblings. He will carry his own optimum distance, his own traits, his own strengths and weakness. He may favor one side or the other. He will attach himself to all of the ingredients and become a result of his entire chart.

First up is Journalism and Grande.

Both of these colts are offspring of Curlin. Both were born from DIFFERENT MARES. That sentence right there will tell you that Journalism and Grande could not possibly have the same traits, the same balance, the same distance capabilities nor the same qualities. They are their own horse.

Only 50% of their chart is the same, it is the other half that combines with the top that changes the entire complexion of the colt. How those ingredients mix together, along with the additional sires who put their mark on that specific horse will make him completely different than the ones who came before him.

First, we'll back up.

Back in 2018, three offspring of Curlin entered the Kentucky Derby. Good Magic, Vino Rosso and Solomini.

The fact that the sire Curlin "generally produces Classic distance runners" holds ZERO bearing on the new horse and on the race itself. The big simple fact that one of Curlin's most famous offspring, Cody's Wish, was a Champion Miler, is always neglected.

Even further proof, the entirety of the chart mixes together to make the colt what he is.

SOLOMINI Curlin - Surf Song (Storm Cat)

Came in 10th place in the Derby

DP = 6-5-11-0-0 (22) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.77

Mare Profile = 4-6-2-6-11   Speed = 10   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.53   Triads = 12-14-19

VINO ROSSO Curlin - Mythical Ride (Street Cry)

Came in 9th place in the Derby

DP = 5-4-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57   CD = 0.88

Mare Profile = 5-3-2-9-8   Speed = 8   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.56   Triads = 10-14-19

GOOD MAGIC Curlin - Glinda the Good (Hard Spun)

Came in 2nd place in the Derby. Lost to the Triple Crown Winner, Justify, by only 2.5 lengths.

DP = 6-6-10-0-0 (22) DI = 3.40   CD = 0.82

Mare Profile = 4-7-2-10-8   Speed = 11   Stamina = 18   Index = 0.61   Triads = 13-19-20

The very first thing to note is that in the case of each one of these horses, it is not Curlin who is responsible for passing through 10f+ stamina - it is the mares bloodlines, both TOP and BOTTOM, that go back over 100 years in the full chart. Look at the mares scales straight down the line. All three happen to lean extremely heavy on the stamina side.

To simply lump these three 10f horses together based simply on Curlin's name is wholly incorrect.

It was raining that day and the track was Sloppy/Sealed. This type of bias on the first Saturday in May caters to speed, not stamina. A horse can run 10f all day long, but that doesn't mean that he is bred for the bias. Most every pedigree guru neglects that little tidbit.

Based on the bias, all three would have had a huge disadvantage based on the intense amount of stamina they collected through their elite mares dotted throughout their charts on a sloppy sealed fast bias.

THE ONLY WAY TO KNOW THIS INFORMATION IS IF YOU CONSULTED THEIR INHERITED CONFIGURATIONS.

So why did Good Magic thwart that disadvantage and almost win this race while his Curlin brothers suffered through the unfavorable bias they had to endure?

Was it Curlin? - obviously not.

Was it the Mares? - Nope, Reines bloodlines through all 3, both top and bottom, lumped in extreme stamina.

Was it the Triads? Yes, partly. Let's look at that first.

The Kentucky Derby favors balance within the mares and the chefs. Note the triads for Good Magic. 13-19-20

The 19 in the center is the Classic Distance. It hits par for the Kentucky Derby race. The other two do not. Good Magic had more Classic Distance bred into him than the other two - for this specific race. Secondly, it is okay that the first slot (speed) is not as intense because Good Magic is holding a 3.40 index - he gets the speed from his chefs.

His triads set, much better configured than his kin, but that is not what aided his ability to tackle that bias while holding all of that stamina. Again, just looking at 1st and 2nd generations and making assumptions isn't going to help. It is the full chart.

Was it the Immediate Dam? Absolutely. It was the line running directly from her that gave Good Magic the magic that he needed.

All three of those colts were bred to run the 10f distance, but only one was bred for that specific bias on the first Saturday in May.

And here is the answer:

The combination of the Chefs for his speed, the mares for his stamina, and the presence of Miswaki. The quiet stallion who passes through the high ability to conquer every bias under the sun is what propelled Good Magic on that sloppy sealed track on the first Saturday in May.

It was not Curlin's race record, nor the cherry-picked few offspring, nor what Glinda produced in the past with a completely different sire. It was Good Magic's entire chart, combined together, top and bottom - utilizing every contributor within his chart. It is the combination of the numbers aligning with all of the parameters of this particular edition of the Derby.

Now, lets look at Journalism and Grande.

Journalism Curlin - Mopotism (Uncle Mo)

DP = 4-5-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57   CD = 0.81

Mare Profile = 6-5-4-7-7   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.84   Triads = 15-16-18

Grande Curlin - Journey Home (War Front)

DP = 6-10-12-0-0 (28) DI = 3.67   CD = 0.79

Mare Profile = 5-6-1-9-8   Speed = 11   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.65   Triads = 12-16-18

Here are two Curlin colts with Uncle Mo and War Front mares. Leaving it at that would be a travesty and would tell you absolutely nothing. Both received strong speed from ALL OF THEIR CHEFS, not just Curlin. Grande simply received it from more elite contributors. Look at the chefs profiles.

They both received different amounts of pure stamina. This stamina came from ALL OF THE ELITE MARE'S Bloodlines on both the Top of the chart and the Bottom of the chart. Not simply through Mopotism or Journey Home. All of them. These two colts are built differently, based on their complete combined chart.

Grande is configured similarly to the three colts from 2018. He is holding much more inbred stamina. Journalism does not have as much stamina that would WATER DOWN his speed. Both have given us full evidence of this dynamic in all of their past performances. Curlin doesn't change that.

In the 9f and under races, Journalism absolutely held the upper hand with his speedier inheritance. Both colts have outwardly displayed their allegiance to their configurations. Moving to the 10f mark now, this could easily change the advantages - based on the bias and the ultimate pace structure. Grande's 10f capability would not be questionable at all, Journalism would be.

This means that when pitting the two against each other, the bias will favor one over the other. Unfortunately for Grande, he is not holding Miswaki. So on a wet slick sealed track, he has a major disadvantage because he leans to stamina. His set-up is against that bias. Journalism, on the other hand, leans to speed, and that bias would enhance his performance.

If we switch it up, and we do get massive rain and the track is completely muddy, thick and deep, switch the advantage. Grande would have the extra killer endurance to get through it. Journalism would cave.

On a clear track, normal fast pace, Journalism has favoritism based on more inherited speed.

On a clear track, extreme suicidal fast pace, the tides turn back to Grande.

The point is that even though both of these colts are products of Curlin and they have very good Broodmare Sires, they are completely different in inheritance based on the full chart.

Now we'll look at Citizen Bull and Tappan Street.

My good friend, Brian, had this great idea of looking into these two colts to distinguish why they are so closely knitted together, yet so different in inheritance. This ties directly into utilizing the entire chart as opposed to singling out simply the 1st two generations. That will never give the full picture.

Both of these Derby Prospects are a product of Into Mischief.

Both of them are also born from a daughter of Distorted Humor.

CITIZEN BULL Into Mischief - No Joke (Distorted Humor)

DP = 2-6-2-0-0 (10) DI = 9.00   CD = 1.00

Mare Profile = 3-10-5-11-2   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.05   Triads = 18-26-18

TAPPAN STREET Into Mischief - Virginia Key (Distorted Humor)

DP = 1-1-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 4-10-5-7-4   Speed = 14   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.15   Triads = 19-22-16

So close, and yet, so far away. Only the numbers and the full chart would reveal that important information.

Citizen Bull was bred with 9X the amount of speed over stamina from his chefs.

Tappan Street was bred with only 3X the amount of speed over stamina. Same sire, same broodmare sire, but triple the difference.

The mares are perfectly balanced for Citizen Bull. They are totally lopsided to speed for Tappan Street, which will ultimately dilute his stamina.

The bullshit of these so-called pedigree aficionados would never ever point out these major differences between these two colts. Into Mischief... Distorted Humor... Blah Blah Blah.

They are built considerably different. First, if you don't consult the combinations of Dr. Roman's numbers, you would never know this to begin with. Secondly, it is the ENTIRE CHART - all of it.

The answer lies with the two quiet dams, No Joke and Virginia Key. Their contribution will be a direct result of what travels through their lines which will become the main factor in shaping the new colts.

Into Mischief passes no chefs to any of his offspring within the first 4 generations. His contribution is additional stamina as a listed prominent non-chef. Also whenever you see Into Mischief, he comes with the highly powerful Ribot/Flower Bowl Combination as an added bonus.

Distorted Humor is also a listed Prominent Non-Chef who adds additional Stamina as well.

Both Tappan Street and Citizen Bull hold the exact same elite mares from ONLY ON THE TOP OF THE CHART.

The line through their immediate mare running through to the second mare changes the entire complexion of the inheritance that both of the colts attained.

Citizen Bull's dam, No Joke, travels to Unenchantedevening on the very bottom of his chart.

This unimposing quiet single mare adds the listed:

Intermediate chef, Unbridled's Song (he passes through killer speed) along with the

Brilliant and Intermediate Chef, Unbridled (he passes through major killer speed) in his 3rd and 4th generation.

Tappan Street DID NOT RECIEVE THESE INGREDIENTS. Therefore, he did not gain all of that massive excessive speed that makes Citizen Bull who he is and how he is built. Tappan Street has a different mare, who then constructs a completely different traveling line. This is why the radical change in the alignments of their numbers.

In addition, through that lone mare, the bloodlines of the elite reines are changed radically as well. That one line gradually gets bigger and bigger and the reines numbers travel back over 100 years.

Even though we have the same sire and the same 2nd generation sire on the bottom of the chart, there is no comparison between the two. Citizen Bull towers over Tappan Street based on how those numbers combine for advantage in Kentucky, if he captures a favorable bias on that particular day.

Speed plus stamina works in the Derby. Citizen Bull is holding 9x the amount of speed over stamina. His mare line gives him an even balance, the same amount of speed and the same amount of stamina balancing that scale for endurance.

Citizen Bull: Clean track - advantage. Wet Fast Track - Major Advantage. Board Hit Numbers, not necessarily winning numbers.

Tappan Street is not even close. That is the power of dosage. Thank you, Dr. Roman. You are well-appreciated here.