It Always Comes Full Circle

Sovereignty's 2nd Maiden - Aqueduct - Sept. 2024

With the 2025 Triple Crown now in the history books, a full assessment of how the DHC fared with tracking the two standouts is in order. Well, let's call it 50-50 for this year. One was excellent, one, not so much.

It is important to be as transparent as possible when it comes to this website and what we do here. This is mainly due to the simple fact that 75% of this website revolves around tracking 2 year olds starting with their maiden, moving into the early preps and through to their Championship Prep races and onward to a gate at Churchill Downs for the first Saturday in May.

The tracking process is highlighted utilizing Dr. Roman's magical numbers as they align with the new colt's performances. How that all shakes out throughout the season begins with that first step onto that first track in their debut race.

This process takes into account what they reveal in that first performance and how it aligns with their breeding for the 10f distance. With each successive race, we can then make a decisive and clear judgement if in fact the horse is capable of running to his chart in terms of the Triple Crown Distances.

More importantly, it becomes the telling factor if the process works or not and if the efforts are worth continuing on for yet another year.

In the past, there was no question. You could set your watch to those numbers, consistently and without an ounce of trepidation. Speaking in terms of the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes, that is.

Up until 2021, everything was sparkling and perfectly on track with the configurations. Perfect year in and year out. The numbers hit the mark every single time. This track record is easy to come back to for yet another year. There would be no question about that.

Even in 2022, with the win by the 80-1 longshot Rich Strike, it could be argued that the configurations still held some merit for that Superfecta. Rich Strike, Epicenter and Simplification were perfectly set-up, while Zandon was completely off. That was a 75% year, unlike the normal average of the 90% of years passed.

Then came 2023 and with it, the percentage dropped all the way down to 25%. Only Angel of Empire hit the magical mark, and oddly, the other 75% of the superfecta was aligned perfectly with 12f Belmont Stakes numbers. Mage, Two Phil's and Disarm hit that Churchill tote board carrying the most exquisite 12f Belmont configurations. That had not happened since way back when, with the power in Affirmed and Seattle Slew's years, 1977 and 1978.

Understanding that the oddness of 2023 could have been fueled by the unreasonable 45.73 half set by Verfying and Kingsbarns, we ventured forward.

As far as last year, 2024, the DHC was out of commission and did not participate. Even so and looking back, the numbers sitting in that superfecta were not consistent with the past. Fierceness and Dornoch stood out with their configurations and early performances here at DHC, beginning with their maidens and all the way through, and were nowhere near that Churchill finish line in the end.

Feeling a bit robbed for circumstances beyond my control last year, there was no way of missing 2025. It was September of 2024 and Sovereignty took 2nd place behind Praetor in his second maiden attempt. Both Into Mischief colts stood out with their configurations as ones to track for the Kentucky Derby. So much so that both were highlighted in the Two Year Olds - Release # 2 article published Sept 29, 2024.

With Sovereignty's configurations sitting against his running style, he stood out amongst his kin and Baeza and Final Gambit also hit the mark with their numbers against their performances prior to the running of the Derby. At least this year was back to 75% - but that is still far from the normal 90% of years gone by.

Journalism was not holding the proper configurations. Yes, colts do outperform their numbers from time to time and one could argue with his race record prior to the Derby that there was ample evidence of an extra special horse, but the minimal fields he conquered on the West Coast tracks tampered down full evidence to be confident.

In addition, both the Derby and the Belmont were run on sloppy tracks. With the Derby, the proper configurations rose to the occasion. In the Belmont, horses with 3.00 and over indexes were conducive to that bias all day long, which is why Baeza (2.00) and especially Hill Road (1.46) struggled.

The weather conditions for both of those races forced advantage away from the typical Triple Crown winning configurations over to being more about the sloppy wet track configurations. They still produced but on a slightly different path. Weather will infiltrate from time to time and we never know how things may have truly ended up on a nice clean track. It is what it is.

So where does all of this leave 2026 as far as the DHC is concerned?

Looking back to the beginning with the early 5 star colts, Sovereignty stood out - but so did Rodriguez and he did not perform in the final leg. Getaway Car stood out, but he was compromised midstream. John Hancock, missing in action since the Louisiana Derby. Patch Adams also rated 5 stars, eventually slams a minimal 7f race in the Woody Stephens against Citizen Bull, Madaket Road, Neoequos and Chancer McPatrick.

Not the best track record for this year, now is it?

As is the case every year, The Dirty Horse Club takes a Summer Vacation after the Triple Crown in anticipation of the two year old debuts with full dissection of their charts for the 2026 Derby. From time to time, an article may be posted and the website may get a revamp again.

But there is one other thing that will happen over the next couple of months, and that is reassessing whether or not the changes in breeding have altered the reliability that we have so enjoyed with Dr. Roman's theories as we did in the past. Those numbers were so on point with the addition of the mares that it would have been a travesty not to share but the last couple of years I am sensing a turning point.

Yes, the pace of a couple of editions and the weather conditions of this year do alter but I don't like 25% to 75% perfection. I expect 90% and if it isn't there any more, then the course of breeding has finally caught up. It is one of the main reasons why I do believe that Dr. Roman retired when he did. (That and the use of medications which took its toll on the mastery of his chefs lists.)

We'll see how the next couple of months play out. I have alittle to think about before renewing the site again.

And with that, we'll see you closer to the Haskell Stakes running on July 19th. It's time for a break.