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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

Hoosier Philly and the Derby - Does She Have It?

Sire - Into Mischief

When a 5.5f maiden race is won against a full field of 13, charging from mid-pack, three wide, you have to take notice. When that same horse wins two more consecutive 8.5f races by a combined 12.5 lengths, you must watch those replays over and over again. When all three of those wins come on the Churchill Downs dirt, you must stop and research for the Derby, regardless of sex.

First Impressions

To be honest, my first impression after reviewing all 3 races several times was fear. This is a remarkable 2 year old filly, but configurations and scales generally do not align as perfectly as they do with the colts. The fear factor enters the picture when you are wary of getting a handle on the capabilities and limitations when it comes to a filly - one of the main factors when handicapping for the Derby (or any race for that matter!)

Judging by the way Hoosier Philly has run so far, she certainly does appear to be right in sync with her numbers, scale, balance and potential with her combined configurations. Appearance though, is not perfect clarity.

Zenyatta ran directly in line with her configurations, as did Beholder, Rachel Alexander, Nest, Winx, Havre de Grace, among many others great Champion fillies. Generally, the "better" fillies will run directly in line with those configurations, capturing everything, just as the colts do. Based on Hoosier Philly's first 3 performances so far, she is right on target to be "one of the better ones" - making her configurations just a readable as the colts - at the very least, we shall soon find out.

Derby Player or Pretender?

Contrary to what most "pedigree people" push in their articles, the immediate sire is not the end all and be all when it comes to potential attributes, limitations, distance capabilities and probable champion qualities. How the sire ran on the track or what he may have produced in a handful of examples has zero bearing. Ditto with the mare or grandsire as well.

It is the combination of all the heavy-hitter sires and mares within the chart and how they BALANCE when those ingredients are mixed together. It is not one or two sires or simply the first 2 generations.

It is definitely not in the simplistic approach of Into Mischief producing Derby players in the past. One must also realize that the sire has also produced offspring who could not compete at 10f in the Derby. What gives one offspring advantage over the other is who that sire mated with and what her bloodlines bring to the table.

You cannot simply cherry pick names who have hit that tote board in previous editions of the Derby without also recognizing the high number of offspring who couldn't come close to the 10f.

Each colt or filly must be looked at individually. Each one has their own scale, their own balance, their own distance capability. Even more importantly, each one will possess their own distinctive will to win.

It is easy to see that Hoosier Philly has that raw determination that is so under-rated when reading past performance sheets, but it is one of the most important attributes of a champion horse. It is the most required asset of a Kentucky Derby winner, in direct alignment with his/her 10f+ capability.

Let's assume that this filly can indeed run to her stated configurations and we will treat her exactly like the boys, for now.

The Breeding

DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 6-7-7-6-4 Speed = 13 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.24 Triads = 20-20-17

In most cases, when you see chefs points total under 12 points, this would point to a greater chance that the offspring will find greater influence from the mares. This is not the case when it comes to Into Mischief offspring. Just like the presence of Tapit affects the configurations with his offspring, the same goes with Into Mischief, in the opposite direction. That 4.33 chef index depicts 4.3 times more speed than stamina and that stays true with this particular sire.

For Hoosier Philly, her mares are basically spread across the board, no major stand-out dominance in any of the specific slots. She hits par in the first two slots of the triads and the "stamina wing" is only 2 or 3 points off from perfection. This is also generally the case with the majority of Into Mischief offspring but it does not affect their ability to hit the board.

In Hoosier Philly's case, her mares are spread fairly the same from 4f to 15f which offers her the same probability of capturing each section in the same manner. This means that endurance for her amazing speed should stay absolute across the board, just as it does when a colt is overloaded in points in his profile. They do not find one optimum distance to excel in, they are proficient across the board.

The typical lack of listed chefs within the first four generations of Into Mischief colts points to a bit more dependence on the Prominent non-chefs found within the chart. The mares are dominant, but the addition of these sires found through the sires line and, even more importantly, through the mares line, can compensate for those missing couple of points.

It is obvious from the chefs and also from the speed leaning mares (20 points in the first slot of the triads), that this filly is packing serious speed inheritance. We can also throw in even more from both prominent non-chefs, Harlan's Holiday and Storm Cat. With all of this inbred speed, we can see why Hoosier Filly demolished her first 3 races between 5.5f and 8.5f. But is it too much speed?

The stand-out prominent non-chef in Hoosier Philly's chart can be found in the second generation through her mare. There we find the one and only TAPIT. That is the mother-load of "non-chef" stamina that completely offsets the "Stamina = 10" number. Realistically, that is all that one needs to see with a 4.33 indexed horse, male or female. But we can keep going. This filly also has Distorted Humor in her 4th generation. Lump in even more stamina on top of Tapit and this girl sits with an almost perfect scale, balanced heavily on both sides of the spectrum.

The incredible extra point with the speedy gifts that Into Mischief passes through, he is also a prominent non-chef in the STAMINA category. So, adding in Tapit, Distorted Humor and Into Mischief himself, that lovely .75 CD can be dropped even further. Hoosier Philly is running 10f blind-folded.

Remember, when it comes to breeding for the Kentucky Derby:

Major Speed + Major Stamina = Derby Player

The Final Score

If Tom Amoss decides to put Hoosier Philly on the road to the Kentucky Derby to face off against the boys, he is holding a Royal Flush. The breeding is spectacular, but I would knock one star off for the sex at the moment. Also, because it is not a 100% guarantee that she will accept her configurations. It appears so at this time but I believe that answer will easily come to fruition when she competes in her first prep against the boys, if that is where she is pointed.

Between Extra Anejo, Cascais, Full Moon Madness, Rocket Can and now Hoosier Philly, Into Mischief is one hot sire in 2022. Let's see how he persists into 2023. It's getting very interesting, and we are still only dealing with 2 year olds!


Rating for the Derby: ++++

On a side note: the 2 year old colt, Rocket Can, son of Into Mischief, is Hoosier Philly's half+ brother. They are configured exactly the same with Tapit in the second generation. Rocket Can is stabled in Bill Mott's barn.


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