Final Derby Thoughts and Candy Ride

It is the eve of the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby, and all the notebooks, past performance sheets, and charts have been put away. Eight full months of tracking two-year-old maidens and Derby preps have finally ended. It is time.

Future bets are live. We grabbed all the hotshots, every one of them, very early on. Making the Derby gate with ten-furlong ability is all one can hope for, and they did it. We did it too.

Handicapping is over. For the most part, it was not the usual agonizing and second-guessing. It was actually quite pleasant this time around. Whether or not the final tote board lights up with those exact numbers is now left to fate.

This must all be attributed to Dr. Steven Roman and Federico Tesio, because without them, picking 10f Derby players between October and January would have been impossible. We pulled it off because of them.

A couple horses slipped in there that did not make the final field, but we made up for that. We nailed Emerging Market, Renegade, Further Ado, Commandment, and Potente very early on. Now we hope the moon and stars align to see it through.

It has been difficult to choose between those horses for the final big bet because, unfortunately for us, they all became the most noteworthy of the final entries on the strength of their 100-point preps.

All of them are extremely worthy of the roses, and now we also have the two superstars from Japan, Dean and Danon. What a crew of talent.

But when it came down to the wire, the hammer landed directly on Candy Ride. I want to explain why.

The choice came down to breeding and raw ability, and both Further Ado and Emerging Market have it in spades.

They both come from the Candy Ride line. A freshly minted Chefs-de-Race with influence in the Brilliant and Classic categories. Both of their past performances tell the same story: powerful late runs in the hundred-point preps, clean trips, and the kind of stamina that does not fade when the real running starts - and amazingly fast.

Yet there is a piece of the decision that lives closer to the heart as well. Candy Ride also sired Shared Belief, the horse I have loved most in a lifetime of watching races. Shared Belief was a rocket with a mane who left us way too soon.

A certain loyalty that will never fade does not change the facts or the figures; Further Ado and Emerging Market stand or fall on their own merits. It only means that when I watch them driving down the stretch tomorrow, part of me will be hoping the same lightning that once struck for Shared Belief strikes again. The rest is up to fate - and up to you.

So I asked myself a simple question.

If Shared Belief had been healthy and was able to shoot for a gate in the 2013 Kentucky Derby off of his 6f maiden win, his 7f Hollywood Prevue victory, and his 8.5f CashCall Futurity win, would I have placed a Futures bet on him and stuck with him straight to Churchill Downs?

The answer is an emphatic yes and that is based off of two things, his configurations (even back then) and his strong will and determination that I fell hard for after his debut and never faded to this day.

I have no doubt, based on the stellar career he later produced, that he would have beaten California Chrome that year. After all, he demolished him in the San Antonio when he had a fair break. That is my opinion, for what it is worth.

So what does any of this have to do with Further Ado and especially Emerging Market?

Start with Emerging Market. All the obvious signs are there: the stats, the two wins, the class, the trainer, the jockey. Everyone sees the quality, the pedigree and the unyielding determination. But this is what stands out to me.

Chefs:

Shared Belief: DP = 10-2-14-2-0 (28) DI = 2.11   CD = 0.71

Emerging Market:  DP = 12-4-17-5-0 (38) DI = 1.81   CD = 0.61

Mares:

Shared Belief: 0-3-6-8-8   Speed = 3   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.30   Triads = 9-17-22 

Emerging Market: 1-4-6-7-8   Speed = 5   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.41   Triads = 11-17-21

They are twins from another mother.

Match those numbers up top and bottom. That is why I have placed Emerging Market on top alongside Further Ado. I have no choice. It would go against everything I believe in and everything I love about this sport.

Is he ready for the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby? I don't know.

Will he get a safe trip? I don't know.

Is Johnny going to guide him properly? I don't know.

Is he built like a beast for this 10f race? That I do know. Another emphatic yes. As a matter of fact, his Chef's line actually outweighs Shared Belief's. Mare's line right on cue.

Then there is Further Ado.

I do not see him regressing. I see him thriving.

He strikes me not as a Keeneland specialist, but as a Kentucky specialist.

He ran faster as a two-year-old maiden winner than the two-year-old Eclipse Award winner Ted Noffey.

He still collected Derby points while sick. And he turned an entire group of Grade 1 prep horses into what looked like allowance runners.

He may not match the configurations of Shared Belief or Emerging Market, but he still carries historically correct Derby numbers.

I am banking on Candy Ride this year. Let the chips fall where they may.

Good luck tomorrow and I truly hope everyone has a very profitable Derby.