Eye on the Prize with 50 Days to Go

Six months have passed since the beginning of the Road to the 151st Kentucky Derby.

It is time to reassess, organize and adapt to the ever-changing landscape that only one race can command. While any given horse can strut his stuff as a two year old while holding the most intriguing and well-aligned Derby configurations, we can only point out POTENTIAL - he must then give us proof that he wants to accept it.

As the field begins to formulate with less than 8 weeks to go, let's take a step back and look at who rises, who falls, who steps into the ring, and who has more to prove. It is time to start getting ruthless.

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PATCH ADAMS

DP = 1-1-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 5.00

Mare Profile = 4-7-5-11-4   Speed = 11   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.83   Triads = 16-23-20

St Simon: 8.6%

When a 2 year old breaks his maiden at Churchill Downs in a 7f race against a field of thirteen competitors by 10.5 lengths, you have to stand up and take notice - especially when he is sporting close to the perfect set of Kentucky Derby configurations seen to date.

The potential that he exhibited from that one race was astonishing, but he hasn't displayed anything near it since. With two Derby Preps under his belt, Patch Adams wins the trophy for the best "One Hit Wonder" of the season.

So disappointing were his two attempts at garnering Derby points, he didn't even make it to the Twinspires Pool Five Futures. Unless Patch Adams finally figures out what an incredible profile he owns in his last ditch effort before May, this once promising 5 star colt will be forever remembered as "wasted talent with the perfect chart."

Two of Patch Adams' kin are still going strong:

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PRAETOR

DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.63 ANZ = 4.00

Mare Profile = 4-7-7-8-5   Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.88   Triads = 18-22-20

St. Simon: 26.6%

SOVEREIGNTY

DP = 2-3-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33   CD = 0.88 ANZ = 7.00   

Mare Profile = 3-10-5-7-4   Speed = 13   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.05   Triads = 18-22-16

St. Simon = 16.41%

Back in September of 2024, Praetor and Sovereignty made the headlines here at the DHC for incredible Derby potential based on their 8f maiden showdown at Aqueduct (Baq). While Praetor is holding a better constructed set of mare figures, Sovereignty has a running style that depicts allegiance to his stamina.

It is so eye-opening with reference to the training styles with Chad Brown taking a very conservative path with Praetor and Bill Mott going all out with Sovereignty.

We have Praetor who has been quietly handled, sitting at 80-1 in Pool Five, who excelled on a fast surface, ridden out with 7.5 lengths in front at one mile. He showed pure ability to run at a perfectly even pace, even with getting bumped in his first maiden attempt and losing his forward style.

Front running Into Mischief son who does not even have one point to his name on the Trail yet, but all he needs is that one late prep win and the gate is his.

Then we have Sovereignty at 5-1 in Pool Five, who has performed to the highest level from 6f all the way up to 8.5f without skipping a beat.

Right up the comments line - "Closed Well. Gain. Drew Clear. Surged."

For a son Into Mischief, he really stands out with that running style and proved himself in the Fountain of Youth that he can begin to unleash his wicked speed earlier than previously thought.

You would think that by the way the chef's and the mare's numbers are configured, that the running styles would make more sense if they were flipped. Praetor is holding much more stamina in his chart than Sovereignty. In that sense, this makes Praetor stand out even more based on his preferred forward position and alignment with the 10f Derby.

Both of these horses have been top notch since the beginning and their potential for the Derby should not take a back seat to Baffert's crew at this stage of the game. Especially Praetor.

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JOHN HANCOCK

DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 7.00

Mare Profile = 7-8-4-5-4   Speed = 15   Stamina = 9   Index = 1.53   Triads = 19-17-13 (2nd gen Tapit)

St. Simon: 33%

Here's where I lay it all out there when it comes to this horse. The reality is that this guy has everything he needs to win the Kentucky Derby with his eyes closed and he has everything that says he doesn't break into the top 10 on the results list. There is no in between here. It's all or nothing and here's why...

We'll start with the glaring "Tapit" negatives.

Tiz the Law (2nd). Essential Quality (3rd). Tacitus (3rd). Catching Freedom (4th).

White Abarrio. Rocket Can. Kingsbarns. Charge It. Tapit Trice. Soup and Sandwich. Enforceable. Tapwrit. Untrapped. And on and on...

What those horses all have in common was the quality to win Prep races, gain a gate, and then get completely shut down at Churchill. While Tiz the Law, Essential Quality and Tacitus managed to hit the board, none of the others came close.

Some of them were really top notch early on and some of them actually excelled well after the Triple Crown.

The presence of Tapit offers stamina, but it is a huge negative when it comes to the Derby. Even when some of them showed exquisite speed prior to the big day, it ultimately staked claim to their downfall in the Derby.

Tapit horses have beautiful speed but they sacrifice the dominant portion of their true breeding when they outwardly display too much of it too early. It knocks them off kilter with their balance.

This is why Flightline ultimately became a beast. He never sacrificed his stamina dominance with his raw display of early speed. He was able to hold onto both sides of his scale and that massive intense speed coupled with his inbred massive stamina stayed fully intact. Oh so rare indeed.

By all measures, including the "speed dominant" layouts of both his chefs and mares profiles, this guy could easily pull a "Kingsbarns Maneuver" - Loose out on the lead like a cyclone and completely giving in at the Mile Pole. Everything says that this is his ultimate fate and based on the nose dive in his late energy after rolling off 22.75 46.23 1:10.49 1:35.65 1:42.27 at 8.5f at Tampa Bay - it surely becomes a huge looming possibility.

John Hancock outwardly runs like a speedster out on the lead. With a 6f win with a "mild ask" out front and then coming back to run impressive call times at 8.5f "determinedly."

Flashy and impressive or is it a sign of impending doom?

What is even more perplexing, if you notice, every single 5f workout that Brad Cox has given this guy produced a finishing time at 1:02. EVERY ONE OF THEM! 1:02. Over and over again. That is not the typical workout time of a lead speed demon on the Payson Park bias down in Florida.

His early speed in the Sam F Davis surely does not coincide with those pedestrian workouts.

It would seem that Brad is trying to tamper down that speed and pull out John's stamina, but it surely did not take hold in the Sam F. Davis. Not by a longshot. If John Hancock's call figures from his final prep remain geared to the EXACT layout of his configurations, then he doesn't have a prayer in the Derby. He will join the ranks of every other 1st and 2nd generation Tapit boy who has ever graced that May Churchill track.

(Remember, 1st and 2nd generation Tapit boy's configurations are read differently, especially the mare line. The mares are "generally" responsible for imparting the stamina, but Tapit takes precedence when he is involved.)

So far, John Hancock is performing as if Tapit doesn't even exist in his chart. This is the main worry when it comes to this colt.

If he begins to roll with the proper energy distribution, he has been gifted with serious speed backed with Tapit's stamina and the roses could be in his reach. His next prep in the Louisiana Derby will tell it all.

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UNDER THE RADAR with MAJOR POTENTIAL

There are three colts who have a real shot over the upcoming month to make their presence known with their perfect Derby configurations. Two are currently on the Derby Trail but still remain a bit quiet amongst all the chatter.

The other was found on Pool Five, definitely built for the 10f at Churchill and looks very impressive so far.

CAPTAIN COOK

DP = 0-1-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 8-4-5-10-6   Speed = 12   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.93   Triads = 17-19-21

St. Simon: 8.2%

Rick Dutrow colt who won the 9f Withers Stakes and has really shown us both sides of his impressive mare configurations. This guy can prove to be an exceptionally well-rounded horse based on what he has done already in such a short time.

This horse won by 9-1/4 lengths on a 7f sloppy track. He then comes back on a clear 9f Aqueduct track, stalking the pace for another win. That is pure evidence that he is staking claim to his mares input on both sides. He has the proper complete set-up, lacking only in total points from his chefs with no additional prominent non-chefs. There is something very exciting about Into Mischief sitting on top of Indian Charlie in his 2nd generation that compliments his finely situated mare's line.

The fact that he hit that 100 speed figure traveling 9f as opposed to 8.5f and it came on the Aqueduct bias speaks volumes. Let's see if he surpasses that in his final prep. If he does, he would definitely rise to "Player Status."

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HILL ROAD

DP = 3-2-9-2-0 (16) DI = 1.46   CD = 0.38 ANZ = 2.08

Mare Profile = 10-2-3-6-10   Speed = 12   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.86   Triads = 15-11-19

Be very aware of a potential explosion in his last prep attempt.

For a colt who started his career overseas on turf and subsequently posts a 119 late figure on the fast dirt surface of DelMar has got to make you look very closely in his direction. At the moment, neither Sovereignty nor Sandman has come anywhere close to that late 119 figure, and as we all know, somebody is always going to catapult from the rear to contest that wire.

This horse had a very rough and horrific ride in the Tampa Bay Derby and could easily burst open with revenge in his next. He still managed to move from dead last at the 2nd call all the way back up to hitting 3rd at the wire. First he was trapped at the rail, then he was moved all the way to the back before the opening mile.

His late speed capability is unmatched at the moment. He will be sitting in the stamina category, which is not very well represented yet along this Trail. The Lemon Drop Kid factor could take precedence over the Mare triads, although he has more than enough stamina to tackle the 10f.

The fact that the stamina category is not filled up as usual by this juncture of the Road, the next and last colt to discuss may be a factor as well. His name says it all:

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DISRUPTOR

DP = 1-2-9-0-0 (12) DI = 1.67   CD = 0.33 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 6-2-6-9-5   Speed = 8   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.80   Triads = 14-17-20

St. Simon: 18.75%

The son of Gun Runner, 2nd generation Candy Ride, has configurations (both chef and ANZ, along with the full mare line) that mimic his kin Shared Belief. They both jump up from a low stamina category index, all the way up to a speedy 3.00 when adding in the Prominent Non-chefs. All stamina from the mares. And with the quality to display such raw speed at distances well below their optimum.

Ample early speed - at Gulfstream Park - traveling only 7f - coming out of Post 8 - hitting 103 in the 2nd call - with his configurations - is a standout for a descendant of Candy Ride. His maiden win produced very nice figures and the drop in late speed was not due to lack of reserved energy, it was due to being over 9 lengths ahead down the stretch. Irad did not need to force the issue.

Stamina driven horses displaying that type of speed at Gulfstream Park at such a short distance truly marks a strong potential as he moves forward. He did not have any advantage in that race and yet he beat all of the advantaged ones to the wire. Actually, he annihilated them.

Candy Ride horse's tend to make their presence known after the Triple Crown, however, when they run like this so early, you must take notice. Pool Five is usually a sucker bet, however, at 80-1 M/L with the potential that he has moving forward, it may not be such a bad gamble at this stage. Irad may stick with him if he feels he has himself a player after his future prep and Todd Pletcher was bound to surface some type of quality competitor. Strong potential is an understatement.

There are a ton of speed driven colts in contention for a gate right now, thanks in part to Into Mischief. The mid-range and stamina categories are highly lacking. When you have too much speed competing in one race, most all up front, these other two categories become a hot commodity.

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BAFFERT'S CREW:

Getaway Car is a monster.

Citizen Bull runs like a monster out front.

Barnes was bred to be a monster.

Rodriguez and Cornucopian are monsters in the making.

That's all that needs to be said about that.