Dirty Horse Top Ten - The Final One, Mid-April
- 17 hours ago
- 7 min read
Updated: 4 hours ago
The Final Top Ten of the season is based on a clean track on the First Saturday in May. Focus would switch a few if the weather forces our hand.
In keeping with the idea that a good number of these players may not secure a perfectly protected and safe trip, 10 colts are grouped together in 5 pairs instead of separated. Each one listed with the back-up and chosen for specific reasons.
The Top FIVE arrangement comes prior to the real gritty handicapping, but it keeps in line with the colts who have held our focus since their two year old campaigns, (some even prior to their maiden debuts too).
The Five below them are those who either aligned with their breeding potential from the beginning or outshined themselves along the way. These are the ones who have good reason to be considered for placement within a superfecta bet. Strictly with good weather on a clean dry fast track.
Leaving their configurations that got them here out of it for now, this deals with straight forward performances in relation to the 10f at Churchill.
THE TOP TEN
10 THE PUMA Javier Castellano 9f Florida Derby RPR: 113
9 SILENT TACTIC Christian Torres 9f Arkansas Derby RPR: 104
The Puma has been very consistent and ran a very good race at 9f against Commandment. He also edged out Further Ado on a wet surface in the rain which adds another plus when it comes to the weather.
The Puma stood out early on with his "old configurations" which shifted more to the speed side allowing a greater balance which is advantageous on the 1st Saturday in May.
Silent Tactic is also a very competitive horse and has been very consistent with gaining ground in the shorter preps, just not as flashy.
It does appear that The Puma is on a higher level than Silent Tactic and probably deserves a much higher placement on this list but the Tapit factor for both strongly favors board-hit, not win.
Danon Bourbon would also sit with these two as a 2nd generation Tapit offspring with the same type of minor flaws within the mare's configurations. Technically, The Puma stands above the other two if a choice needed to be made.
The reason these two are joined together is of course the probability of at least one not getting a safe and secure trip. The main reason though, is because they are both 2nd generation Tapit offspring. Tapit boys in the Derby hit the board (barely) and never win the Derby outright. Someday, and it could be Derby 152, that stat will change, but leaving fate to the mare bloodlines with both still say no historically. With that in mind, they could easily secure a bottom spot if the pace allows. Danon Bourbon would be the alternate to Silent Tactic if so inclined. The Puma would stay.
8 WONDER DEAN Ryusei Sakai 9.5f - UAE Derby RPR: 112
7 FULLEFFORT Tyler Gaffalione 8.5f - John Battaglia (AWS) RPR: 94
Christian Demuro blasted Wonder Dean over the finish line in the UAE Derby, however, he will not be guiding the horse in Kentucky. Trainer Takayanagi opts instead for Ryusei Sakai, the same jockey who guided Forever Young to his third place Derby trophy in 2024. Huge positive.
Drenched in inherited stamina with killer energy and late speed, Wonder Dean will sit in a very good spot within the speed/stamina list historically for a board-hit chance/superfecta player on a clean fast track.
RPR for Fulleffort in the 9f Jeff Ruby is not listed yet, but definitely rises up from the 94 posted for the shorter John Battaglia. Surely 100+.
Fulleffort's two recent workouts at Churchill Downs on dirt match the previous workout times when on AWS. Hopefully, they rise above and not stay the same.
Animal Kingdom PPs prior to his win in the Derby vs. Fulleffort - (both at 30-1):
The reason for joining these two horses together is because both have obstacles to overcome, however, both have good reason to excel here if they do. Wonder Dean faces the overseas battle and acclimating to his surroundings after quarantine. His fate also relies a great deal on the weather, even though Japan has very wet conditions overall. He is built more on the stamina side, not as speedy, but this gives him a stronger reserve as he reaches the stretch. Fulleffort faces dirt for the first time but his configurations and chart give him a thumbs up in that regard. Based on his winning ways on turf and AWS, this implies more stamina dominate even though he sits within the speed category. A huge dilemma if he is split, but a very good chance he explodes as well. Both have reasons to hit that tote.
6 GOLDEN TEMPO Jose Ortiz 8.5f Lecomte Stakes RPR: 102
5 POTENTE Juan Hernandez 8.5f San Felipe Stakes RPR: 107
Golden Tempo's resume is not flashy by any stretch, however, he is the type to sit quietly by waiting for his proper and optimum distance to finally arrive. He did upgrade quite a bit from his Lecomte win but the LA Derby RPR was not posted as of today. That would definitely rise into competitive territory.
Golden Tempo has consistently shot up from the rear, regardless of distance, and the PP comments are very reminiscent of Sovereignty's "willing" and "drew off" performances. He will hit a better distance for his inheritance in Louisville from way off the pace and his last showed excellence in energy distribution.
Potente is a Class A horse who loses his #1 spot, not due to anything he did improperly, but more for the possibility of being forced to the lead and pressured by others to go faster there than he would naturally want. The risk is too high - but he is built so well for Louisville that it may not even matter.
Potente's competition from the SA Derby will not have the same advantage this time around, and if Hernandez lays off, Potente is hanging with the best of them. I think he still has a few aces held in reserve to win this race, he needs the trip and he need to be handled as if he is in that San Felipe race again. Choose a couple rabbits from off the pace and wait until they retreat - because they will. Potente would then be positioned better than his many of his favored foes.
The reasons for joining these two together is because both have opposite running styles and one will capitalize much more off of the bias and pace over the other. Huge advantage will get dumped on one of them - not both at the same time. If Baffert pushes for the gate to wire spectacle, then Golden Tempo may reap the benefits as well. If Hernandez backs off like Rosario did with Epicenter, then Potente is lethal. The only other possibility if Baffert is hell-bent on forcing the lead spot as usual, Potente gets the lead and slows that pace down - which is a tall order in the Derby. It all depends on the ride.
4 COMMANDMENT Luis Saez 9f Florida Derby RPR: 114
3 EMERGING MARKET Flavien Prat No RPR Listed for Louisiana Derby
Commandment is a determined colt who doesn't necessarily need to be in the far rear, offering him a little bit better positioning against those high caliber rear runners. Multi-bias and advantaged in wet weather as well.
Commandment secured a 121 late beyer in the Florida Derby after reserving every ounce of energy early.
Emerging Market did not run as a two year old and has a couple of obstacles but the class he has shown in just two races is remarkable. Built so well for the 10f in Kentucky. Spectacular energy distribution at 9.5f - held it all the way and could easily upgrade at the classic distance off that effort. Third race on his resume could be the charm.
Emerging Market blasted his 9.5f race, not by lengths, but by determination. He was not to be denied his trophy. Another Candy Ride boy who is exceptionally talented and could easily rise to the occasion with that sire on his side.
Brad Cox vs Chad Brown with two very strong runners that may position themselves fairly close together if they leave that gate perfectly. Mid-pack to rear with a possible rabbit in Chad's corner. Emerging Market will take advantage as well. This year is all about Into Mischief - Gun Runner/Candy Ride and who better to go head to head than these two very talented and perfectly configured colts. The trip is the key.
2 RENEGADE Irad Ortiz Jr. 9f Arkansas Derby RPR: 114
1 FURTHER ADO Johnny V 9f Blue Grass Stakes RPR: 117
The Top five here on the list have been a constant all the way through and will remain. For specific reasons they have been moved around within the Top Five but each one could easily get the perfect trip and win.
Renegade has done everything right since his maiden, competitive with Paladin, excelled on a faster track, has beaten strong competition and consistently rides from the back to get to that wire. Built properly.
Further Ado is a monster and his jockey, Johnny V, knows how to win a Derby or two, even when he didn't ride them previously (Authentic and Animal Kingdom).
Heard a story about Further Ado - After his win in the Kentucky Jockey Club, he got sick. (Possibly sick during the race as well). He was sent to a farm for recuperation and rest and he hated it. He lost weight and Brad Cox took him back immediately. He started to fill out a bit more but not 100% - Still put him in the Tampa Bay Derby anyway. Between the rain and the previous sickness, Further Ado still remained highly competitive. Then he continued his training, fill out more and was 100% for the Blue Grass. Further Ado at 100% is the beast of 2026.
The reason for these two hitting #1 together and why they should be joined together - different running styles gives greater advantage to one over the other based on eventual pace, consistent high quality performances, built for the 10f race and highly competitive in the stretch. If they both get to run without being bumped or steadied, they either wrestle to that finish line together or Further Ado blows them all away again, looking like his cousin Shared Belief. That is why Further Ado finally moves from that #3 spot that he has held all season long and moves to the #1 spot at the DHC for this last list. I really want him (or Emerging Market) to win. They have the engines to do it.