Dirty Horse's Top Ten - April 1st, 2026
- Mar 30
- 13 min read
Updated: Apr 5
There are three types of Weather biases that we recognize here at the DHC:
Clean Fast Track - Sunny or Cloudy → Top Ten is laid out as is for this type of track.
These two biases are addressed for each:
TYPE ONE MUDDY TRACK - very deep, thick, sticky and yielding
TYPE TWO MUDDY TRACK - wet, slick, sealed.
We still have the Santa Anita Derby, The Blue Grass Stakes and the Wood Memorial coming up on April 4th, so we will have one more TOP TEN list after that and prior to the Kentucky Derby Analysis.
10 DANON BOURBON Maxfield (Street Sense) and Wild Ridge (Tapit)
DP = 1-5-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 Â CD = 0.70 ANZ = 3.50
Mares Profile = 7-6-2-8-6 Â Speed = 13 Â Stamina = 14 Â Index = 1.00 Â Triads = 15-16-16 (2nd gen Tapit)
Manabu Ikezoe St. Simon: 25% Ribot with Flower Bowl: Yes
NEW ROMAN'S NUMBERS:
DP = 1-7-16-0-0 (24) DI = 2.00 Â CD = 0.38
I don't like this now at all for the parameters of the Derby. These are 12f Belmont configurations. He won't be on the final Top Ten List.
I'll get right to the point here. One of the main reasons why this guy gets a spot on this list is because he beat an extremely solid player with Don Erectus. Possible that Don was compromised by being overworked but the fact remains Danon is undefeated, he hits several positive factors with his history as compared to previous Derby Winners and no entries from Japan can be dismissed when it comes to Graded Stakes in the USA. The other reason is because unlike Wonder Dean, this guy is packaged through America. Maxfield and Tapit. It may not be such a stretch that he would be eager for our bias and surface. He's a very good horse, but even still, Tapit is a hard one in the Derby, so we'll keep him close by but still stay a bit leery. Between the two possible Japanese starters, Wonder Dean does have more upside as far as history goes. For now, we'll keep only one Tapit horse on the list.
TYPE ONE MUD (Thick and Yielding) - Even with Tapit's stamina, it may be too much to ask a foreign horse to plod through quicksand. It is hard enough for them to get adjusted to their surroundings - throw in deep cement and it could be a disaster.
TYPE TWO MUD (Slick and Wet) - He would probably enjoy this type of surface, he favors his speed side, he has a 4.00 index, and Japan is used to the wetness.
9 INCREDIBOLT Bolt d'Oro (Medagia d'Oro) and Sapphire Spitfire (Awesome Again)
DP = 5-10-10-1-0 (26) DI = 3.33 Â CD = 0.73 ANZ = 3.33
Mares Profile = 11-3-3-5-11 Â Speed = 14 Â Stamina = 16 Â Index = 0.93 Â Triads = 17-11-19
Riley Mott St. Simon: 31.25% Ribot with Flower Bowl: No (Ribot with Pocahontas)
NEW ROMAN'S NUMBERS:
DP = 5-10-18-1-0 (34) DI = 2.40 Â CD = 0.56
Upgrade.
This guy was never on the radar until he ranked the highest with alignment against the last 21 victors of the Derby. Then, I did a deep dive and the more I looked, the more I liked. The thing that stood out here was the fact that his split triads gave me pause from the beginning, just like Journalism's did - so much so that it overtook the performances. That was a mistake. Both stayed at 3.5 stars all the way through and I won't make that mistake again. Incedibolt's triads depict balance on the extreme sides of the speed/stamina scale - looks like they could be meeting in the middle. Wary of the Virginia Derby alittle, but he ran extremely well in the Street Sense, coming in from the rear into very slow earlier calls. He did throw in quite a clunker in the Holy Bull but better that he got that one out of his system early in the game and progressed off of the back of it in his next. It could be a mistake choosing Incredibolt over The Puma but we still have a month and a few more preps to move things around if need be. I do not think he is a win contender, but he could be positioned well enough to make a good long shot player if he gets the trip. I think he deserves to stay for awhile.
TYPE ONE MUDÂ (Thick and Yielding) - With the recent upgrade in the Chefs, this bias becomes much more plausible.
TYPE TWO MUDÂ (Slick and Wet) - Possible because of his style of running.
8 WONDER DEAN Dee Majesty (Deep Impact) and Wonder Siang Praw (Wonder Acute)
DP = 1-0-4-1-0 (6) DI = 1.00 Â CD = 0.17 ANZ = 1.00
Mares Profile = 5-4-5-8-7 Â Speed = 9 Â Stamina = 15 Â Index = 0.70 Â Triads = 14-17-20
Daisoke Takayanagi St. Simon: 9.38% Ribot with Flower Bowl: Yes
NEW ROMAN'S NUMBERS:
Stays the Same
Still wonderful.
This guy is 101% built for a nice clean sunny track on the first Saturday in May. He conserved his energy, ran 4 wide for a long time during the Dubai race and he outran the usual forward speed/lead bias. The grandson of Deep Impact is overloaded in stamina and his late kick and determination at a strong distance for one so young is not to be dismissed. He sits in a very advantageous board hit spot among his peers and would be much better served with a far outside post.
TYPE ONE MUDÂ (Thick and Yielding) - Absolutely positively YES.
TYPE TWO MUDÂ (Slick and Wet) - Absolutely positively NO.
7 INTREPIDO Maximus Mischief (Into Mischief) and Overly Indulgent (Pleasantly Perfect)
DP = 1-8-5-0-0 (14) DI = 4.60 Â CD = 0.71 ANZ = 4.60
Mares Profile = 3-6-5-10-4 Â Speed = 9 Â Stamina = 14 Â Index = 0.74 Â Triads = 14-21-19
Jeff Mullins St. Simon: Affirmed → Galopin (St. Simon's sire 9.38%) Ribot with Flower Bowl: Yes
NEW ROMAN'S NUMBERS:
DP = 6-6-10-0-0 (22) DI = 3.40 Â CD = 0.82
Still good.
Upcoming big prep in the Santa Anita Derby against two of Baffert's boys will finally give us the true nature of Intrepido's built-in stamina potential. There are two reasons why I continue to string this guy along throughout the prep season. The first is because he was able to come within 3/4 of a length behind a very very talented Plutarch who was a main standout early on for the Kentucky Derby. The second reason is something that is lurking in his chart that stood out a long time ago that peaked early interest. Of course, the Into Mischief factor is a given but the real highlight is seeing His Majesty so close in his 4th generation. His Majesty [C] is actually a part of his chefs profile which is mind-blowing. That is very rare these days, which means Ribot and Flower Bowl sit much closer than norm, in the 5th generation. That influence is killer for the Derby (historically speaking) and depicts massive stamina attributes. That factor would definitely affect his early short races and foretells much better advantages on longer tracks. Facing Baffert's crew in the shorter prep distances would obviously be difficult for a ridgling bred like this and the fact that he was competitive against a bon-a-fide turf/dirt monster gives full evidence of acceptance of that stamina. He still has one more 9f hurdle to gain those points and coming in second behind Potente this weekend will add 50 points to the 23 he now holds for a total of 73 points and he gets his 10f shot. Third place behind Robusta and he still grabs a gate. He is built much better for the 10f in Kentucky than the 9f at Santa Anita.
TYPE ONE MUDÂ (Thick and Yielding) - High stamina inheritance aids a great deal, however, running style could harm. He would outlast the speedsters, not retreating as quick, but he could have used up more energy early and weaken down the stretch.
TYPE TWO MUDÂ (Slick and Wet) - excellent with his style. He would outlast the speedsters, gain more lengths, and continue with full higher-end stamina up front.
6 FULLEFFORT Liam's Map (Unbridled's Song) and Callmethesqueeze (Awesome Again)
DP = 3-18-7-0-0 (28) DI = 7.00 Â CD = 0.86 ANZ = 7.00
Mares Profile = 4-8-3-10-5 Â Speed = 12 Â Stamina = 15 Â Index = 0.83 Â Triads = 15-21-18
Brad Cox St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy Ribot with Flower Bowl: Yes
NEW ROMAN'S NUMBERS:
DP = 7-10-11-0-0 (28) DI = 4.09 Â CD = 0.86
Even better.
Who would have guessed that a son of Liam's Map would make a Top 10 list at the DHC one month before the Derby? By that same token, who would have guessed that a 7.00 indexed son of Liam's Map would tear up that AWS at 9f in the Jeff Ruby? Certainly not history! Something about it sounds so wrong but it looks so right. When you look closely at the configurations the blend of those ingredients somehow hit the mark - high speed up top and beautifully arranged Mare's Index and triads. It looks right and he has shown off his high stamina over and over again. The Jeff Ruby Steaks (along with previous names for the race) has produced quite a few Derby board-hitters in its time. There is an extremely strong probability that when this guy hits the dirt he may explode. His top line is saying that he has been waiting. Be very diligent with tracking his upcoming workouts, especially when he hits Churchill.
TYPE ONE MUDÂ (Thick and Yielding) - He hits'em both. AWS/Turf background with nicely arranged triads gives him an edge on that tougher bias.
TYPE TWO MUDÂ (Slick and Wet) - It's all about that 7.00 index. That's the type of speed that may see to it that he flies.
5 EMERGING MARKET Candy Ride (Ride the Rails) and Wild Empress (Empire Maker)
DP = 4-4-5-1-0 (14) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.79 ANZ = 4.14
Mares Profile = 1-4-6-7-8 Â Speed = 5 Â Stamina = 15 Â Index = 0.41 Â Triads = 11-17-21
Chad Brown St. Simon: Fappiano → Teddy Ribot with Flower Bowl: No (Ribot with Pocahontas)
NEW ROMAN'S NUMBERS:
DP = 12-4-17-5-0 (38) DI = 1.81 Â CD = 0.61
Sensational.
Built like a titan and runs like one too. The only fault is being lightly raced - however, when a horse is this good and talented, he tends to come out strong in his debut and nothing passes him as he continues to mature. Out of the entire group, this guy has been very impressive and he runs to every single number across the board in his configurations. He mastered his chart perfectly. The horse simply refused to let the other pass him. Will and determination goes along way with a Classic Distance runner. He's a very talented horse and will get better and better as the months pass by. Historically, he's a top player at Saratoga for both the 10f Belmont, but mostly for the Travers Stakes. He needs a good trip in Kentucky and he should be right in the mix if he gets it. Full disclosure, Emerging Market or Further Ado - the ones I WANT TO WIN - personal favorites, but I won't let the heart cloud my judgement.
TYPE ONE MUDÂ (Thick and Yielding) - He has them both covered. His configurations scream 12f Belmont Stakes. His mare's stamina contribution is one of the highest on the field. He is built for endurance and he's too determined to give in.
TYPE TWO MUDÂ (Slick and Wet) - His Chef and ANZ figures, along with his style of running, will keep him competitive on a wet or sloppy sealed track.
4 COMMANDMENT Into Mischief (Harlan's Holiday) and Sippican Harbor (Orb)
DP = 1-2-1-0-0 (4) DI = 7.00 Â CD = 1.00 ANZ = 11.00
Mares Profile = 3-10-5-7-6 Â Speed = 13 Â Stamina = 13 Â Index = 0.88 Â Triads = 18-22-18
Brad Cox St. Simon: 17.96% Ribot with Flower Bowl: Yes
NEW ROMAN'S NUMBERS:
DP = 9-2-9-0-0 (20) DI = 3.44 Â CD = 1.00
Still remains positive.
Call it superstition, call it paranoia, or whatever you wish - but I simply cannot return Commandment to his previous #2 position on DHC’s Top Ten. Not right now, anyway. It ultimately boils down to my obsession with percentages, probabilities, and history. How can anyone seriously entertain the idea of three sons of Into Mischief sweeping the trifecta? The odds of that happening have to be in triple digits. I just can’t bring myself to do it.
Commandment looked like his old self in the Florida Derby, displaying strong energy and running exactly as his pedigree indicated he should. Of the three possible track conditions on Derby Day, I believe he would be most advantaged on a sloppy, sealed surface/wet bias. That’s mainly because such conditions would negatively impact several of the horses racing near him from the back - they simply wouldn’t handle it well. Basically, he would lose a couple of serious rear running foes on that surface. On a clean, fast track, however, a few of his stamina-oriented rivals would have far better setups coming from off the pace and would thrive, leaving more competition for him to deal with. In that scenario, Commandment would not rank as high or at the top of the list. At this point, the Top Five all have legitimate reasons why they could wear the roses, depending on how the advantages align with the race-day conditions. As the month unfolds, the picture will sharpen based on the final field, the weather, and the post positions.
TYPE ONE MUDÂ (Thick and Yielding) - Running style helps but top line in his configurations say definitely no.
TYPE TWO MUDÂ (Slick and Wet) - He is built correctly for this type of track. Think Sovereignty - many attributes are similar.
3 FURTHER ADO Gun Runner (Candy Ride) and Sky Dreamer (Sky Mesa)
DP = 0-3-7-0-0 (10) DI = 1.86 Â CD = 0.30 ANZ = 3.00
Mares Profile = 7-2-5-8-6 Â Speed = 9 Â Stamina = 14 Â Index = 0.84 Â Triads = 14-15-19
Brad Cox St. Simon: 27.54% Ribot with Flower Bowl: Yes
NEW ROMAN'S NUMBERS:
DP = 4-3-13-0-0 (20) DI = 2.08 Â CD = 0.55
Still very good.
He's staying put at #3. He's been there since January, no need to jinx things. He was the king of the stamina category until Dean showed up and that guy is very formidable company, especially on a clean track. Further Ado's chefs line is fantastic and unfortunately, he was tasked to run a short 8.5f track with a wet surface against speed driven colts. The stamina-driven boy held his own with a strong disadvantage given the sprinting distance and he persevered like a Champ. This is a very talented horse who will only rise in fame as the months progress. Both Emerging Market and Further Ado will love Saratoga in the Summer. Hoping he makes us proud on Saturday in the Blue Grass.
TYPE ONE MUDÂ (Thick and Yielding) - He would definitely outlast the speedsters.
TYPE TWO MUDÂ (Slick and Wet) - He showed he had the muscle and if there was extra added distance in the Tampa Bay Derby, he would have watched his speedy foes retreat, so that would be a yes to both types of mud.
TIE:
1 POTENTE Into Mischief (Harlan's Holiday) and Sweet Sting (Awesome Again) DP = 1-4-7-0-0 (12) DI = 2.43 Â CD = 0.50 ANZ = 4.14
Mares Profile = 3-10-5-11-3 Â Speed = 13 Â Stamina = 14 Â Index = 0.95 Â Triads = 18-26-19
Bob Baffert St. Simon: Hail to Reason → Plucky Liege (Close 2nd: 20.12%) Ribot with Flower Bowl: Yes
NEW ROMAN'S NUMBERS:
DP = 9-4-15-0-0 (28) DI = 2.73 Â CD = 0.79
Yes. Stays fairly close to previous.
He went from #8 in January, to #1 in February and that is where he will continue to remain. He still has one more prep to go, a very big one we should say, but his numbers with Into Mischief are just so solid for Kentucky that it makes no difference. The way they are laid out, this guy has quite a few different biases covered. Unlike his kin on the field, he's holding much more stamina, both through his chefs and through the mares in the Classic distance. Plain and simple, he is custom built with a running style that is perfect for the first Saturday in May. He is actually built better for the 10f at Churchill than he is for the 9f at Santa Anita, just like Intrepido. A win here would be the icing on the cake in terms of displayed speed against his breeding. He's the real deal even if he's so lightly raced.
TYPE ONE MUDÂ (Thick and Yielding) - His 2.43 index may have given a little bit of an advantage over his Into Mischief brothers but West Coast training hinders a great deal. Way too foreign to his experience so far.
TYPE TWO MUDÂ (Slick and Wet) - Definitely Yes. Rain, sloppy sealed, wet, dry, sunny, cloudy, take your pick. He's built correctly.
1 RENEGADE Into Mischief (Harlan's Holiday) and Spice is Nice (Curlin)
DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.63 ANZ = 3.00
Mares Profile = 5-9-4-9-5 Â Speed = 14 Â Stamina = 14 Â Index = 1.00 Â Triads = 18-22-18
Todd Pletcher St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy (Close 2nd: 7.03%) Ribot with Flower Bowl: Yes
NEW ROMAN'S NUMBERS:
DP = 9-3-20-0-0 (32) DI = 2.20 Â CD = 0.66
Changes drastically but major upgrade in Classic Slot. Very Nice. This now makes even more sense.
He went from #5 in January - to #4 in February - and now he sits at the top at #1. Who knows what it might have been had we not lost Ted Noffey, Plutarch, Paladin and the main guy, Thunderously. That's a complete Derby superfecta all on its own. But Renegade deserves it. He's built great, style is great for the inevitable suicidal pace and he just gets better and better with each passing race.
I decided to stay rational with the Top #1 Pick(s) for this Top Ten list. One running up near the lead tier and one coming from the rear. I went with the best built for both pace scenarios. We have no way of knowing exactly how that pace will play out, it is the blind spot. Lately, its been suicidal and who better to come flying from the rear than the likes of Renegade? If the pace slows a bit, then there is the Into Mischief boy Potente, with his extra shot of stamina positioned closer to the top of the stretch. If Renegade gets slammed out of the gate, there's Commandment and Wonder Dean to take his place. If Potente gets a horrible trip, there's Emerging Market and Further Ado to step in when the sprinters retreat. That's how I am approaching this year's Derby with all of these well built colts. Even if you pick the best of the best top Six colts, you have to accept the fact that at least 1/3 of them will not get an unscathed trip out of that gate. You could lose 2 of them in the first 10 seconds of the race, especially if its sloppy. The second major factor will be constructing 2 tickets for a suicidal pace and a rational pace. It must be done. There are too many well built colts this season and pace and bias forces 2 different winning colts this year. Right now, it's Potente and Renegade headlining two separate tickets. We'll see where that goes in about 3 weeks from now.
TYPE ONE MUDÂ (Thick and Yielding) - No question here - YES.
TYPE TWO MUDÂ (Slick and Wet) - Into Mischief - the 3.00 index - the 18 points in the 1st slot of the triads say it all, Renegade still comes flying on a wet track.