Dirty Horse's Derby Top Ten - January 2026

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"Into Mischief and His Boys" - AI generated

Click Number Button for Strong Performance/Workout Replay or Article.

10

CANALETTO Into Mischief - Distorted Music (Distorted Humor) Chad Brown

DP = 2-6-3-1-0 (12) DI = 3.80   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 4.60

Mare Profile = 3-9-5-10-3   Speed = 12   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.95   Triads = 17-24-18

With Ted Noffey off the Derby Trail, I decided to switch him out with another Into Mischief kin, this time from Chad Brown's Barn. I hesitated at first, mainly due to the Distorted Humor factor - I recall Brian bringing this sire up with Into Mischief sons - Citizen Bull and Tappan Street (not to mention Sandman as well) - and the differences in their configurations last year. Something is telling me to take heed to their limitations as it pertains to full endurance - so for now - I'm still semi-comfortable with giving him a 10th place nod on this Top Ten list but confidence is not very high. I do believe that this list will shift come February and a few new guys will make their debut. Canaletto's configurations are solid, however, they aren't perfect either. [Chefs Profile is off. 2-6-3-1-0 which depicts double the inheritance in the Intermediate slot (6) over the Classic slot (3)]

Update: Canaletto continues with steady workouts down at Payson Park.

9

TAMAMO FREESIA Le Vent Se Leve - Tamamo El Dorado (Gold Allure) Yuki Ohashi

DP = 1-0-5-0-0 (6) DI = 1.40   CD = 0.33 ANZ = 1.18

Mare Profile = 6-2-2-11-8   Speed = 8   Stamina = 19   Index = 0.55   Triads = 10-15-21

Yes, that's right - a filly from Japan who came in second place in the slow 8f Zen Nippon Nisai Yushan at Kawasaki back in December. There will be at least one Japanese starter who comes to Churchill and out of all that I have seen so far, this girl stands out above all. The way she exploded down that stretch against the boys, only to lose by the slightest of necks, was just spectacular. Important to note as well, she actually cut back in distance from her previous win at 9f to compete at 8f in the Zen Nippon. She beat a very nice packed field in the 9f Graded Stakes JBC Nisai Championship. This filly is not built to be a sprinter, 11-points to the good on the stamina side with a 1.40 index, and she still exhibited exceptional late dominating speed traveling so short. She runs just like her sire, Le Vent Se Leve, who was a powerhouse from his 2 year old 2017 debut and all the way through to his win in the 2018 Champions Cup. So far, Tamamo has had 3 races at 3 different tracks - 2 wins and 1 second place near miss. She is one hell of a slick runner who is completely drenched in stamina. I have no idea if she'll continue on the Derby Trail, but if she does, the way she performs against those configurations are definitely Derby-worthy. For now, she'll represent Japan until everything begins to unfold.

Update: Tamamo is not found on the Nominations list, however, she could always be added if the connections go that route.

8

POTENTE Into Mischief - Sweet Sting (Awesome Again) Bob Baffert

DP = 1-4-7-0-0 (12) DI = 2.43   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 4.14

Mare Profile = 3-10-5-11-3   Speed = 13   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.95   Triads = 18-26-19

Six consecutive recent workouts at Santa Anita (one on AWS, five on dirt, including one recent 46.40 1/90 bullet) should manifest in a maiden debut very soon. Beautiful mares line sitting beneath a very eccentric and uncommon 2.43/4.14 Into Mischief set-up. The dam-sire Awesome Again kicks that stamina up a few notches but he still retains that normal high speed capability. Baffert may be looking to pull a "Justify" here as a non-runner as a two year old and his inheritance says he has enough on both sides to be a player just as well. Any longer with the waiting game and we may see a new shooter for the Preakness or Belmont.

Update: He won his 6-furlong debut at Santa Anita on January 31, scoring a gate-to-wire victory against four opponents. He'll need to dramatically raise his level of competition and distance soon if he's to be taken seriously as a Kentucky Derby contender.

7

SPARTACUS Curlin - Marion Ravenwood (A.P. Indy) Todd Pletcher

DP = 6-10-16-0-0 (32) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.69 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 4-3-0-7-12   Speed = 7   Stamina = 19   Index = 0.35   Triads = 7-10-19

I'm going out on a limb with this one, but there is no way that I couldn't. Stumbled upon this workout of a new Pletcher boy who will be making his debut on January 25th at Gulfstream on an 8f track. This horse can move! Based on that stellar fast work along with so many promising and notable points, there is no way to resist. Look at that mare scale:  Speed = 7   Stamina = 19 and then add to it the replay of his latest work. The horse is sporting 32 chef profile points, killer ascending triads with speed on top and he is backed with A.P. Indy in his second generation. When you see such speed from a workout, especially down in balmy Florida with a 12-point spread favoring stamina, you must take notice. This is a 10++ furlong horse, definitely not a miler, so we'll see how he handles his 8f short maiden this weekend. Haven't seen configurations like this in a very long time. Packed and loaded chef profile with mare stamina that doesn't subside and quick moving prior to debut. Did I mention he is a full brother to Nest? Update: He unloaded way too much early lead tier speed and compromised his late stamina - which, in all reality, should have been opposite. If he figures out how incredibly he is built, maybe he'll get it together in time for a later Triple Crown attempt. Reasonable cause to still keep an eye on him. The horse needs a steadier pace and distance and should not be run against the grain of his breeding.

6

PALADIN Gun Runner - Secret Sigh (Tapit) Chad Brown

DP = 1-4-7-0-0 (12) DI = 2.43   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 4.71

Mare Profile = 5-4-6-6-6   Speed = 9   Stamina = 12   Index = 0.83   Triads = 15-16-18 (2nd gen Tapit)

Built very well for his two Aqueduct wins, the horse is now settled down in Florida at Payson Park and has posted three consecutive neutral works on that faster bias. We'll soon see how the Gun Runner/Tapit stamina lean reacts to that Florida weather and if he can flaunt that 4.71 ANZ speedy figure. He's going to have to do that in order to retain another win over Renegade moving forward on a faster bias.

Update: Paladin scores his win in the Risen Star on 2/14. He's proven versatility on multi-biases. Perfect.

5

RENEGADE Into Mischief - Spice is Nice (Curlin) Todd Pletcher

DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.63 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 5-9-4-9-5   Speed = 14   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.00   Triads = 18-22-18

There are many Into Mischief sons on this list, but the sire certainly passes down historically correct configurations, so we go with the best of the best. Some run up front and some come from behind - like this guy, which is why I like him so much. With the suicidal pace trend lately in the Derby, along with ever-present threats of heavy downpours, sometimes that is the place to be. He captured no shame in his second place behind Paladin in the Remsen coming from so far off the pace on the Aqueduct surface. He showed off killer stamina and expectations are high that he continues along on his way to Churchill. Love seeing a son of Into Mischief excel at Aqueduct and even though he was short down the stretch against a highly advantaged Gun Runner/Tapit boy with Paladin, he showed that he had a conviction to compete for the wire and he should thrive on a faster surface traveling 10f+.

Update: Renegade wins the Sam F. Davis with conviction on a faster track on 2/7.

4

PLUTARCH Into Mischief - Stellar Wind (Curlin) Bob Baffert

DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.63 ANZ = 4.00

Mare Profile = 7-6-4-7-8   Speed = 13   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.89   Triads = 17-17-19

Something very intriguing about an Into Mischief son, stationed in Bob Baffert's barn, breaking his maiden on a 9f track, coming from the far rear, ON TURF, that simply can't be left unnoticed. He was steadily trained on the AWS and has now changed to dirt training for his last recent works. Many a Derby Roses Superstar had a turf background, transitioning to dirt for a clear Derby shot. Only time will tell of Baffert's intent, but rest assured, this guy has the 10f easily. Should this son of Stellar Wind continue along with his rear style on dirt, Baffert could have something quite special. With Ted Noffey now off the trail, things got a little switched around for January. We won't have to wait too long to see his dirt form in a contest, entered in the Robert B. Lewis on February 7th. At the very least, he needs to show some competitiveness in this race while still dropping down in distance on a dirt surface, but a win would be even nicer.

Update: Plutarch wins the 8f Robert B. Lewis traveling up front on 2/7.

3

FURTHER ADO Gun Runner - Sky Dreamer (Sky Mesa) Brad Cox

DP = 0-3-7-0-0 (10) DI = 1.86   CD = 0.30 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 7-2-5-8-6   Speed = 9   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.84   Triads = 14-15-19

Besides the filly from Japan, Further Ado is the only colt on this list sitting in the "true" stamina category. This is a must for any Derby superfecta and he holds the reins here. Arguably the best debut performance from the entire crop so far (at 8.5f no less), coupled with a very respectable first place score in the Kentucky Jockey Club, hopes are high that he continues to remain as competitive and determined moving forward. The only setback at this juncture is that many from the Candy Ride line tend to truly shine late, sometime around Travers time. This would hold true for Thunderously and Paladin as well. Steady as she goes with all three is the hope.

Update: Further Ado continues to flash killer workouts at Payson. Form stays intact.

2

COMMANDMENT Into Mischief - Sippican Harbor (Orb) Brad Cox

DP = 1-2-1-0-0 (4) DI = 7.00   CD = 1.00 ANZ = 11.00

Mare Profile = 3-10-5-7-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.88   Triads = 18-22-18

This guy has exceptional energy distribution which in turn, follows his configurations perfectly. Balanced in his inheritance translates directly onto the track. The other magical point in his favor is his damsire, Orb, was loaded to the max in his killer profile [DP = 11-12-15-0-2 (40)] and that inevitably will leave its mark on Commandment. With only 4 points in his chefs profile, he will rely heavily on Into Mischief's stamina, Orb's hefty gifts spread across the board and nicely balanced and packed mare's bloodlines. Everything he has done so far on the track mimics these exceptional inherited qualities. Nicely arranged configurations to succeed on both a clean track and a sloppy track is the icing on the cake.

Update: Training at Payson.

1

THUNDEROUSLY Gun Runner - Princess Warrior (Midshipman) Bill Mott

DP = 1-5-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00   CD = 0.70 ANZ = 6.00

Mare Profile = 2-6-6-9-6   Speed = 8   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.59   Triads = 14-21-21

One smashing maiden race coupled with killer speed inheritance sitting on top of perfectly aligned and balanced stamina underneath makes this guy truly stand out as my # 1 in January. His configurations read "extreme speed inheritance with complete 10f+ endurance from start to finish." He inherited everything he needs to be successful at Churchill, now he simply needs to follow through and continue to rise on the trail. The 10f+ is of no issue, the late speed capability was realized and Bill Mott knows how to win a Derby. May he continue on a safe and healthy path straight to Louisville.

Update: No workouts since prior to his debut win.

Update 2/15 - Trainer Bill Mott confirms that Thunderously will be sidelined indefinitely and is off the Kentucky Derby trail. Heartbreaking news.