Dirty Horse's Derby Top 10 - March 3rd, 2026
- Mar 3
- 12 min read
Updated: Mar 25
February flew by in a flash, and it’s now time to reassess January’s Top Ten prospects. We sadly lost a couple of strong contenders, including Plutarch and our No. 1 pick, Thunderously - a very tough blow.
Hopefully, Thunderously will stage a bold comeback as a fresh new shooter in the Preakness or the 10-furlong Belmont Stakes at Saratoga.
If not, he could resurface for the Haskell or the Travers, two races where history has shown Candy Ride progeny often hit their peak and truly shine. Either way, we haven’t heard the last from Thunderously or Plutarch.
We look forward to their healthy and successful return to the track. ...And, we're off...
I will continue to add info to each of these colts throughout the month as new insight becomes available.
Important to openly track these guys as we move forward this month.
10 BRANT Gun Runner Bob Baffert ♥ ♥ ♥ +
DP = 1-5-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 Â CD = 0.70 ANZ = 6.00
Mare Profile = 5-6-4-7-6 Â Speed = 11 Â Stamina = 13 Â Index = 0.87 Â Triads = 15-17-17
Change from January's Top Ten: New addition to the List. Speed is not the issue, the stamina side needs to be revealed after the 8.5f preps to upgrade because mares line is slightly under-par.
I almost chopped this list down from a Top 10 to a Top 8 but then decided to acknowledge two 3.5 star colts who still have time to show us what they have - Brant and Silent Tactic. While Brant's top chef's line is magnificent as a Gun Runner/Candy Ride boy, his mare's line falls just off for the Derby. That said, he is a Baffert charge, and as we know, Baffert's colts somehow find a way to run through and past their inheritance. Yes, he still has Boyd, Cherokee Nation, Blacksmith and Kristofferson but something about a 4.00/6.00 Gun Runner son is still standing out. We'll just have to wait and see how Baffert proceeds with his barn and quite frankly, after the loss of a real good one in Plutarch, which ones are still viable and in contention come May. I went back and forth between Brant and Chad Brown's charge, Canaletto for this Top 10 list and I settled on Brant. (I guess that means Canaletto is #11) Something is telling me that the stamina of the Candy Ride Line sitting with the speed of the Liam's Map line may be sufficient enough to balance out - at least as possible board-hit material. He's been hard at work training consistently since mid-January and should be ready to return to the upper ranks, especially with Ted Noffey out of the picture.
3/5/26 - Upcoming prep - March 7th, San Felipe Stakes at an advantaged 8.5f distance. (Grade 2)
3/8/26 - Faltered terribly in the San Felipe. Gun Runner colt on the lead driving insane early calls is against his breeding and is now out of consideration for the DHC moving forward. Same problem, different year.
9 SILENT TACTIC Tacitus Mark Casse ♥ ♥ ♥ +
DP = 3-8-9-0-0 (20) DI = 3.44 Â CD = 0.70 ANZ = 3.89
Mare Profile = 7-4-3-7-8 Â Speed = 11 Â Stamina = 15 Â Index = 0.81 Â Triads = 14-14-18 (2nd gen Tapit)
Change from January's Top Ten: New addition to the List. Needs another strong performance to add to his rating. 10f distance is easily achieved and speed numbers hit the mark.
This guy started out at 3 stars and recently moved up to 3.5 stars. After his performance in the Rebel this past weekend, the horse really stepped up and showed his Tapit influence, his Gun Runner influence and his Candy Ride influence. He hits over the 3.20 threshold and even his mares numbers are uncharacteristically configured on the incline for a Tapit line. He showed alot of heart and determination forging from the back against a very strong field of players. I think he is going to have a very nice Graded Stakes future ahead of him. There is still plenty of time and extra distances coming up that benefits him a great deal. That Tapit line requires more track to show-off on. We'll see if he can make a move and rise up on this list next month.
3/19/2026 - Oaklawn Workout 5f 1:01.60 (7/11)
3/22/2026 - Next start he faces Renegade in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn on 3/38.
8 INTREPIDO Maximus Mischief Jeff Mullins ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ +
DP = 1-8-5-0-0 (14) DI = 4.60 Â CD = 0.71 ANZ = 4.60
Mare Profile = 3-6-5-10-4 Â Speed = 9 Â Stamina = 14 Â Index = 0.74 Â Triads = 14-21-19
Change from January's Top Ten: New addition to the List even though he was highly rated from the beginning. After his successful redemption race, he returns.
Jumps back into contention after the clunker in the Juvenile and retains that 4.5 star rating with redemption in the Robert B. Lewis. I can't forget about him and he sure is holding Derby Numbers top and bottom. He still has more to prove, a win would be nice, but he is suited for the 10f in Kentucky. It is just a matter of stepping up under his optimum to get those points for a gate. Every year, there is a least one or two who are suited correctly but simply miss at those 9f and under races. I always feel bad for well-bred horses who are destined to fight against Baffert's barn on the west coast going short - they shouldn't be penalized for that! We'll see if he can overcome and get it done.
3/8/2026 - Santa Anita Workout - 5f 1:01.60 (39/80)
3/15/2026 - Santa Anita Workout - 5f 1:00.40 (11/60)
3/22/2026 - Santa Anita Workout - 6f 1:14.40 (2/3) - ouch!
7 DON ERECTUS Danon Legend Noboru Takagi ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
DP = 2-1-5-0-0 (8) DI = 2.20 Â CD = 0.63 ANZ = 3.00
Mare Profile = 1-4-8-10-3 Â Speed = 5 Â Stamina = 13 Â Index = 0.58 Â Triads = 13-22-21
Change from January's Top Ten: New addition to the List with previous top highest rating. January's Top Ten Japanese horse belonged to the filly, Tamamo Freesia. While she still remains a standout player & still hopeful at the DHC, connections give no assurance one way or the other of remaining a Derby Trail contender. We'll keep watching and waiting. Al Haram could be considered a tie for this spot for now.
In all the years that I have been doing this, I have never had three midrange colts on my Top 10 list at any time. It's usually just one a year - like Two Phil's in 2023 and of course Dornoch in 2024 - but never this many. But the configurations set against the performances are top notch and that is what that category demands. This Japanese horse stood out in both the Hyacinth and the Cattleya Sho and if I can't have Tamamo Freesia, I'll take this guy in a heartbeat. Two near misses and running out of track in both with his heavy stamina numbers are too good to pass up. I look forward to his performance in Meydan or Nakayama and hope that he isn't denied again. This is a very good horse. Both Don Erectus and Al Haram (another serious well-configured player) are not nominated for the Triple Crown, and I assume the connections are waiting to supplement until after the UAE Derby or Fukuryu.
3/14/2026 - Came in 1st place in 9f Allowance at Chukyo. Apparently, he'll have an extremely quick turn around if he is indeed entered in the Fukuryu.
6 PALADIN Gun Runner Chad Brown ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
DP = 1-4-7-0-0 (12) DI = 2.43 Â CD = 0.50 ANZ = 4.71
Mare Profile = 5-4-6-6-6 Â Speed = 9 Â Stamina = 12 Â Index = 0.83 Â Triads = 15-16-18 (2nd gen Tapit)
Change from January's Top Ten: Remains exactly the same from January at #6. The obvious favorite has only one hurdle to jump in Louisville, and that is history in conjunction with his build.
Undefeated 5 star colt who has done everything right from his debut and all the way through until now but I'm still on the fence with a 2.24 index colt with 2nd generation Tapit. It has never worked in the Kentucky Derby - but what keeps him in the same #6 spot from January, is that his prominent non-chefs push him all the way up to a 4.71. So far, we have seen the evidence that he has taken ahold of it and we know the type of (Belmont quality) stamina that comes with a 1st or 2nd generation Tapit boy at a 3.00 and under index. He remains close to that superfecta and most likely will absolutely be included after all is said and done. If I were to be completely honest, it boils down to my aversion of going with the obvious, especially this early. If all on this top Ten list were in a race together, I suspect Paladin would be the favorite - and I always want to beat the favorite! There is definitely alot of time to move the listed top 6 around by either upgrading with incredible performances or by downgrading with reversal of form. This goes for all 10 of them. It's only March 3rd and the best preps that separate the men from the boys are on the horizon, still time to bite the bullet and move him up.
3/7/2026 - Payson Workout 4f 49.60 (21/81) - consistent training times at Payson
3/13/2026 - Payson Workout 4f 49.80 (25/64)
3/21/2026 - Payson Workout 4f 49.20 (4/70) - still perfectly consistent.
5 COMMANDMENT Into Mischief Brad Cox ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ +
DP = 1-2-1-0-0 (4) DI = 7.00 Â CD = 1.00 ANZ = 11.00
Mare Profile = 3-10-5-7-6 Â Speed = 13 Â Stamina = 13 Â Index = 0.88 Â Triads = 18-22-18
Change from January's Top Ten: Even with the win in the FOY, he downgrades from January's #2 spot all the way down to #5. Still time to reclaim that spot if energy distribution returns to former quality.
I went back and forth with #4 and #5 and opted to fall on this placement for now. Even though the 7.00/11.00 index here stands out much better for the Kentucky Derby than Renegade's 3.00/3.00, the two Into Mischief Rear-Runners are still very compatible. I chose #5 for Commandment at this time which is a drop from January's #2 spot based only on the drifting in the stretch in the FOY. He had excellent energy distribution walking into the race, but the drifting put a kink in that. He sits more mid-pack than rear but that still defies the 7.00 index. He's burning a bit of extra energy earlier than Renegade, so we'll have to monitor that in his next outing. At the moment, I kinda see them as equals, but something about Renegade is more in tune with a legitimate shot at the board in the Derby. Maybe it will switch next month.
3/13/2026 Payson Workout - 4f 50.00 (33/64)
3/21/2026 Payson Bullet Workout - 5f 1:01.80 (1/17)
3/22/2026 - Next start in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream on 3/28. He'll face The Puma, Nearly, and Chief Wallabee.
4 RENEGADE Into Mischief Todd Pletcher ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.63 ANZ = 3.00
Mare Profile = 5-9-4-9-5 Â Speed = 14 Â Stamina = 14 Â Index = 1.00 Â Triads = 18-22-18
Change from January's Top Ten: Moves up one notch from January's #5 spot to #4 now. Expected dominance on a faster track was proven after the win in the Sam F. Davis. High expectations of another upgrade after next prep.
Rear running Into Mischief son who likes a fast track and was still competitive at Aqueduct points to a very good prospect coming from the rear in Kentucky. It will be very hard to separate Renegade and Commandment, kin who share similar qualities and both very successful in their own right. I would venture to say even at this early date, that these two horses may just end up being joined at the hip should they both succeed in gaining one of those coveted gates. We'll watch for progression in both as we get closer to May.
3/7/26 - Palm Beach Downs Workout 4f 49.20 (4/14) Very nice for a rear runner.
3/13/26 - Palm Beach Downs Workout 5f 1:01.40 (3/4)
3/17/26 - Irad Ortiz opts to ride Renegade in the Arkansas Derby as opposed to Commandment in the Florida Derby.
3/21/26 - Palm Beach Downs Workout 4f 49.40 (6/16)
3/22/26 - Next start in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn on 3/28
3 FURTHER ADO Gun Runner Brad Cox ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
DP = 0-3-7-0-0 (10) DI = 1.86 Â CD = 0.30 ANZ = 3.00
Mare Profile = 7-2-5-8-6 Â Speed = 9 Â Stamina = 14 Â Index = 0.84 Â Triads = 14-15-19
Change from January's Top Ten: Remains exactly the same at #3 from January's Top Ten with hopes that after his next prep in Tampa Bay he will upgrade further. Previous power and dominance hopefully returns to make the #1 move.
I'm still dreaming about his debut race which completely blew everyone out of the water and even exceeded Ted Noffey at the same distance at Keeneland - so we know what he is capable of. He was also successful with his win in the Jockey Club, however, his form was not as powerful as that massive maiden race. He returns to the track this Saturday in the Tampa Bay Derby which will be his 4th track visited. Good experience on several biases so far with alittle more maturity and training time under his belt for this upcoming test. He certainly has the Derby distance and should that form return to its former glory, he would raise up to #1 way before Post Time in Louisville. I'm actually counting on it.
3/5/26 - Upcoming Prep in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 7th at 8.f. (Grade 3)
3/8/28 - 2nd place in Tampa Bay only 3/4 length from the wire in the rain on a slick bias shows another dimension but he'll make no move forward on this list at this time.
3/20/2026 - Payson Workout 4f 49.80 (9/46)
2 EMERGING MARKET Candy Ride Chad Brown ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
DP = 4-4-5-1-0 (14) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.79 ANZ = 4.14
Mare Profile = 1-4-6-7-8 Â Speed = 5 Â Stamina = 15 Â Index = 0.41 Â Triads = 11-17-21
Change from January's Top Ten: New to the list after 5 star rating from Pool 4 was established in conjunction with his maiden performance and how that aligns with his killer configurations.
The mare's scale alone is standing out like crazy for the Derby distance and the fact that he sits mid-pack will do him just fine for the inevitable blazing early calls. His configurations are incredible and he's first generation Candy Ride, not 2nd. Nice amount of inbred speed through his chefs (3.00) and prominent non-chefs (4.14) with stamina to burn. Fantastic debut only foretells of a very nice future. His configurations scream 12f Belmont Stakes but was able to beat out a large group filled with speed horses running a mere mile-40, and he came 1 second below the track record. That is a standout. The Top two for the month of February at the DHC happen to be simply maiden winners - but that is a testament to the amazing potential found within their perfectly arranged configurations against their style and speed. Does it carry through for the month of March? They both have alot of catching up to do but I sure hope they both turn their potential into reality.
2/27/26 - Noteworthy Workout: Ran a bullet 1/77 48.60 at Payson. That is massive with that mare's scale.
3/7/26 - Payson Workout 4f 49.80 (31/81)
Earned a 96 Beyer for his maiden win.
3/12/2026 - Scheduled to run in the Louisiana Derby on March 21st.
3/13/2026 - Payson Workout - 49.60 (14/64)
3/21/2026 - Showed will and determination to win the Louisiana Derby at 9.5f.
1 POTENTE Into Mischief Bob Baffert ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
DP = 1-4-7-0-0 (12) DI = 2.43 Â CD = 0.50
Mare Profile = 3-10-5-11-3 Â Speed = 13 Â Stamina = 14 Â Index = 0.95 Â Triads = 18-26-19
Change from January's Top Ten: Upgrades from January's #8 spot all the way up to #1 this month based on his easy 10f+ capability and built-in speed. Optimum distance way passed the 8.5f of his next prep in the San Felipe. Needs to simply continue to exhibit competitive speed with these configurations even if a win below his optimum is not achieved.
After careful consideration with who was worthy enough to take over Thunderously's previous #1 spot, I have to fall onto these configurations for the #1 for the month of February. He is slated for the upcoming San Felipe Stakes to be run on March 7th at Santa Anita against his barn mate Brant which will be a huge test for this maiden winner. Normally, a mid-range category colt would not be a top pick (unless his name was Dornoch) but with the Into Mischief set-up, there are no worries about that. He still exhibits massive speed and that figure simply attaches even more stamina in conjunction with his mares lines. His configurations for an Into Mischief son are eccentric and different. A 2.43 index with a balanced scale. Displaying killer speed up front with ample 10f+ stamina. It hurts alot to replace Thunderously, but we're given no choice. Both of them stood out prior to their debuts, both of them excelled in their debuts, and both of them built perfectly for the Derby.
3/5/26 - Upcoming prep on March 7th in the San Felipe against his more accomplished stablemate at only 8.5f. (Grade 2)
3/8/26 - Posts a very nice win in the San Felipe as a maiden runner and it appeared to be on his merit, however, there's always the chance that it came on the back of his stablemate Brant running amok on the lead. Potente boxed in and he fought his way through while running midpack this time as opposed to the gate to wire style from his maiden. That was by design, which points to a strong possibility that Brant became the sacrificial lamb.
3/20/2026 - Santa Anita Workout 4f 48.00 (8/35)
3/22/2026 - Next race in the Santa Anita Derby on April 4th.
All of the colts on this Top Ten List from #8 down to #1 have been DHC's 4.5 star and 5 star rated colts since the beginning.
That has not changed and most likely, the cast of characters will not change even if they get shuffled around.