Dirty Horse's Derby Top 10 - March 3rd, 2026
- 2 hours ago
- 7 min read
February flew by in a flash, and it’s now time to reassess January’s Top Ten prospects. We sadly lost a couple of strong contenders, including Plutarch and our No. 1 pick, Thunderously - a very tough blow.
Hopefully, Thunderously will stage a bold comeback as a fresh new shooter in the Preakness or the 10-furlong Belmont Stakes at Saratoga.
If not, he could resurface for the Haskell or the Travers, two races where history has shown Candy Ride progeny often hit their peak and truly shine. Either way, we haven’t heard the last from Thunderously or Plutarch.
We look forward to their healthy and successful return to the track. ...And, we're off...
10 BRANT Gun Runner
DP = 1-5-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 Â CD = 0.70 ANZ = 6.00
Mare Profile = 5-6-4-7-6 Â Speed = 11 Â Stamina = 13 Â Index = 0.87 Â Triads = 15-17-17
I almost chopped this list and thought about doing a Top 8 as opposed to a Top 10 but decided to take two 3.5 star colts who still have time to show us what they have - Brant and Silent Tactic. While Brant's top chef's line is magnificent as a Gun Runner/Candy Ride boy, his mare's line falls just off for the Derby. That said, he is a Baffert charge, and as we know, Baffert's colts somehow find a way to run through and past their inheritance. Yes, he still has Boyd, Cherokee Nation, Blacksmith and Kristofferson but something about a 4.00/6.00 Gun Runner son is still standing out. We'll just have to wait and see how Baffert proceeds with his barn and quite frankly, after the loss of a real good one in Plutarch, which ones are still viable and in contention come May. I went back and forth between Brant and Chad Brown's charge, Canaletto for this Top 10 list and I settled on Brant. Something is telling me that the stamina of the Candy Ride Line sitting with the speed of the Liam's Map line will be sufficient in a balanced scale - at least as board-hit material.
9 SILENT TACTIC Tacitus
DP = 3-8-9-0-0 (20) DI = 3.44 Â CD = 0.70 ANZ = 3.89
Mare Profile = 7-4-3-7-8 Â Speed = 11 Â Stamina = 15 Â Index = 0.81 Â Triads = 14-14-18 (2nd gen Tapit)
This guy started out at 3 stars and recently moved up to 3.5 stars - which is what Brant has. After his performance in the Rebel this past weekend, the horse really stepped up and showed his Tapit influence, his Gun Runner influence and his Candy Ride influence. He hits over the 3.20 threshold and even his mares numbers are uncharacteristically configured on the incline for a Tapit line. I think he is going to have a very nice Graded Stakes future.
8 INTREPIDO Maximus Mischief
DP = 1-8-5-0-0 (14) DI = 4.60 Â CD = 0.71 ANZ = 4.60
Mare Profile = 3-6-5-10-4 Â Speed = 9 Â Stamina = 14 Â Index = 0.74 Â Triads = 14-21-19
Jumps back into contention after the clunker in the Juvenile and retains that 4.5 star rating with redemption in the Robert B. Lewis. I can't forget about him and he sure is holding Derby Numbers top and bottom. He still has more to prove, a win would be nice, but he is suited for the 10f in Kentucky. It is just a matter of stepping up under his optimum to get those points for a gate. Every year, there is a least one or two who are suited correctly but simply miss at those 9f and under races. We'll see if he can overcome and get it done.
7 DON ERECTUS Danon Legend
DP = 2-1-5-0-0 (8) DI = 2.20 Â CD = 0.63 ANZ = 3.00
Mare Profile = 1-4-8-10-3 Â Speed = 5 Â Stamina = 13 Â Index = 0.58 Â Triads = 13-22-21
In all the years that I have been doing this, I have never had three midrange colts on my Top 10 list at any time. It's usually just one a year - like Two Phil's in 2023 and of course Dornoch in 2024 - but never this many. But the configurations set against the performances are top notch and that is what that category demands. This Japanese horse stood out in both the Hyacinth and the Cattleya Sho and if I can't have Tamamo Freesia, I'll take this guy in a heartbeat. Two near misses and running out of track in both with his heavy stamina numbers are too good to pass up. I look forward to his performance in Dubai and hope that he isn't denied again. This is a very good horse. Both Don Erectus and Al Haram (another serious well-configured player) are not nominated for the Triple Crown, and I assume the connections are waiting to supplement until after the UAE Derby. May the better horse win.
6 PALADIN Gun Runner
DP = 1-4-7-0-0 (12) DI = 2.43 Â CD = 0.50 ANZ = 4.71
Mare Profile = 5-4-6-6-6 Â Speed = 9 Â Stamina = 12 Â Index = 0.83 Â Triads = 15-16-18 (2nd gen Tapit)
Undefeated 5 star colt who has done everything right from his debut and all the way through until now but I'm still on the fence with a 2.24 index colt with 2nd generation Tapit. It has never worked in the Kentucky Derby - but what keeps him in the same #6 spot from January, is that his prominent non-chefs push him all the way up to a 4.71. So far, we have seen the evidence that he has taken ahold of it and we know the type of (Belmont quality) stamina that comes with a 1st or 2nd generation Tapit boy. He remains close to that superfecta and most likely will absolutely be included after all is said and done. There is definitely alot of time to move the top 6 around by either upgrading with incredible performances or by downgrading with reversal of form. This goes for all 10 of them. It's only March 3rd and the best preps are on the horizon.
5 COMMANDMENT Into Mischief
DP = 1-2-1-0-0 (4) DI = 7.00 Â CD = 1.00 ANZ = 11.00
Mare Profile = 3-10-5-7-6 Â Speed = 13 Â Stamina = 13 Â Index = 0.88 Â Triads = 18-22-18
I went back and forth with #4 and #5 and opted to fall on this placement for now. Even though the 7.00/11.00 index here stands out much better for the Kentucky Derby than Renegade's 3.00/3.00, the two Into Mischief Rear-Runners are still very compatible. I chose #5 for Commandment at this time which is a drop from January's #2 spot based only on the drifting in the stretch in the FOY. He had excellent energy distribution walking into the race, but the drifting put a kink in that. He sits more mid-pack than rear but that still defies the 7.00 index. He's burning a bit of extra energy earlier than Renegade. At the moment, I kinda see them as equals, but something about Renegade is more in tune with a legitimate shot at the board in the Derby. Maybe it will switch next month.
4 RENEGADE Into Mischief
DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.63 ANZ = 3.00
Mare Profile = 5-9-4-9-5 Â Speed = 14 Â Stamina = 14 Â Index = 1.00 Â Triads = 18-22-18
Rear running Into Mischief son who likes a fast track and was still competitive at Aqueduct points to a very good prospect coming from the rear in Kentucky. It will be very hard to separate Renegade and Commandment, kin who share similar qualities and both very successful in their own right. I would venture to say even at this early date, that these two horses may just end up being joined at the hip should they both succeed in gaining one of those coveted gates. We'll watch for progression in both as we get closer to May.
3 FURTHER ADO Gun Runner
DP = 0-3-7-0-0 (10) DI = 1.86 Â CD = 0.30 ANZ = 3.00
Mare Profile = 7-2-5-8-6 Â Speed = 9 Â Stamina = 14 Â Index = 0.84 Â Triads = 14-15-19
I'm still dreaming about his debut race which completely blew everyone out of the water and exceeded Ted Noffey - so we know what he is capable of. He was also successful with his win in the Jockey Club, however his form was not as powerful. He returns to the track this Saturday in the Tampa Bay Derby which will be his 4th track visited. Good experience on several biases so far. He certainly has the Derby distance and should that form return to its former glory, he would raise up to #1 way before Post Time in Louisville.
2 EMERGING MARKET Candy Ride
DP = 4-4-5-1-0 (14) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.79 ANZ = 4.14
Mare Profile = 1-4-6-7-8 Â Speed = 5 Â Stamina = 15 Â Index = 0.41 Â Triads = 11-17-21
The mare's scale alone is standing out like crazy for the Derby distance and the fact that he sits mid-pack will do him just fine for the inevitable blazing early calls. His configurations are incredible and he's first generation Candy Ride, not 2nd. Nice amount of inbred speed through his chefs (3.00) and non-prominent chefs (4.14) with stamina to burn. Fantastic debut only foretells of a very nice future. Top two for the month of February happen to be simply maiden winners - but that is a testament to the amazing potential found within their perfectly arranged configurations. Does it carry through for the month of March? I sure hope so.
1 POTENTE Into Mischief
DP = 1-4-7-0-0 (12) DI = 2.43 Â CD = 0.50
Mare Profile = 3-10-5-11-3 Â Speed = 13 Â Stamina = 14 Â Index = 0.95 Â Triads = 18-26-19
After careful consideration with who was worthy enough to take over Thunderously's previous #1 spot, I have to fall onto these configurations for the #1 for the month of February. He is slated for the upcoming San Felipe Stakes to be run on March 7th at Santa Anita against his barn mate Brant which will be a huge test for this maiden winner. Normally, a mid-range category colt would not be a top pick (unless his name was Dornoch) but with the Into Mischief set-up, there are no worries about that. He still exhibits massive speed and that figure simply attaches even more stamina in conjunction with his mares lines. His configurations for an Into Mischief son are eccentric and different. A 2.43 index with a balanced scale. Displaying killer speed up front with ample 10f+ stamina. It hurts alot to replace Thunderously, but we're given no choice. Both of them stood out prior to their debuts, both of them excelled in their debuts, and both of them built perfectly for the Derby.
All of the colts on this Top Ten List from #8 down to #1 have been DHC's 4.5 star and 5 star rated colts since the beginning. That has not changed and most likely, the cast of characters will not change even if they get shuffled around.