top of page

Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

Dirty Horse Derby Top Ten - Mar '24



This analysis may not be copied or paraphrased, in part or in full, without permission. LDM 4/01/24


10. DOMESTIC PRODUCT

DP = 0-2-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.50 Mare Profile = 8-4-4-11-6   Speed = 12   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.89   Triads = 16-19-21


Domestic Product makes it to the 10th on the list based solely on his configurations. Highly stamina leaning which would come in handy if the lead pace hits that extreme target yet again this year. It is never a good idea to dismiss these types too early in the game. He is configured for a typical advantage in a 12f Belmont Stakes contest which obviously means he has the Derby distance easily but the speed side lacks because of the split on the balance. Again, this is advantageous when an extremely speedy race happens to fall apart. There will be a couple of hotshots striking that spot up front and if they don't want to concede to one another, colts built like Domestic Product could take advantage. There are a couple who fit into this mold as well.

 

9. SIERRA LEONE

DP = 2-2-8-0-0 (12) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.50 Mare Profile = 5-3-5-6-8   Speed = 8   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.67   Triads = 13-14-19


As we enter the final month of preparation, I have decided to take a more stringent approach in terms of breeding this year. While Sierra Leone could very well be the type to outrun his numbers when it comes to sustaining wicked speed the full 10f, ultimately, these configurations are not advantageous historically. He displays his speed for 1/2 the race, not the full race, which works under very certain pace circumstances. Caution keeps him tied to the top ten list none-the-less because his performances so far do back up the respected attention.

 

8. RESILIENCE

DP = 5-5-8-0-0 (18) DI = 3.50   CD = 0.83 Mare Profile = 2-12-4-13-2   Speed = 14   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.95   Triads = 18-29-19


Since Timberlake is out and we now know that Resilience is happy and healthy, I am returning him back to his rightful place on the top Ten list. He is sporting one of the best and most aligned sets of configurations for the Kentucky Derby. He has everything he needs built into him to tackle the 10f at a heightened pace. He needs a huge show on Saturday to secure his gate but if he doesn't, we will revisit him if he shows up at the Preakness. With an ANZ figure that rises to 4.00 above those mares numbers, he certainly has quite an advantage to run again on May 4th.

 

7. HONOR MARIE

DP = 9-11-15-1-0 (36) DI = 3.24   CD = 0.78 Mare Profile = 4-3-6-4-9   Speed = 7   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.61   Triads = 13-13-19


There are two reasons why Honor Marie gets a nod above Sierra Leone, both of which rely on pace and tendency to give it their all for only half of the race. The first is the excessive speed found in his chefs configurations coupled with a very hefty 36 points in his profile. Those two points at 10f at Churchill Downs is very advantageous historically.

 

TIE:

6. FOREVER YOUNG (JPN)

DP = 4-2-6-0-0 (12) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.83 Mare Profile = 7-3-6-6-7   Speed = 10   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.88   Triads = 16-15-19

and

6. T O PASSWORD (JPN)

DP = 2-0-6-2-0 (10) DI = 1.00   CD = 0.20 Mare Profile = 6-5-5-12-4   Speed = 11   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.88   Triads = 16-22-21


For now, we'll group the two Japanese starters together, but suffice it to say, that both are being watched like a hawk this year. Forever Young has the resume and the tenacity while T O Password has the proper Derby configurations and the speed. Both will be the cause of major headaches as usual, however this year, both are being tracked on a daily basis. Both of these guys have the distance and different reasons to take them as serious threats this year. We'll keep them joined at the hip for the time being.

 

5. SEIZE THE GREY

DP = 7-16-9-0-0 (32) DI = 6.11   CD = 0.94 Mare Profile = 4-6-4-9-6   Speed = 10   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.72   Triads = 14-19-19


I'm going to go out on a limb here. There are two colts who "should have" remained from last month's Top Twelve list but are now removed. The first is Resilience, and this is based on info garnered from Gerard that he may have sustained an injury after his last workout. We can't confirm at this time, but even the possibility needs to be taken to heart. Hopefully, that is not the case and we will revisit. (False alarm - He's Okay!)


The second colt, Liberal Arts, who was built like a titan for the Kentucky Derby, appears to have severe temperament issues and took himself out of contention in his last race. Based on his wicked temper when locked between horses on a smaller field, imagine what he would have done on a 20-horse field!


Because of how incredible Liberal Arts' chart was for Kentucky, I am hitching that same boat to his half brother Seize the Grey. In reality, Seize the Grey has even more positives than his brother Art when it comes to the Derby. This son of Arrogate has the perfect balance of massive speed with massive stamina just like Art, but he is also sporting 32 total chef profile points which is a major bonus. At the moment, he is sitting with 27 prep points and needs to punch it in his final contest. He needs a gate because he is built like a Champ for the Kentucky Derby and appears that he is not as mean spirited as Liberal Arts.

 

4. CATCHING FREEDOM

DP = 2-5-3-0-0 (10) DI = 5.67   CD = 0.90 Mare Profile = 5-5-7-6-5   Speed = 10   Stamina = 11   Index = 0.96   Triads = 17-18-18


The 5.67 index attached to Tapit in his second generation keeps him in place on this list. He is highly and safely configured to perform well for the board in Kentucky, but would need a huge bolt of luck to secure a win.

 

3. JUST A TOUCH

DP = 3-6-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57   CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 12-2-3-5-8   Speed = 14   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.21   Triads = 17-10-16


This son of Justify has shown much more allegiance to the favorable attributes that are being bestowed on that sire's second crop in only two races than with his half brother, Just Steel, who has had eleven races. The main stand-out item with Just a Touch is not only Justify's speed and classic propensity, but take a look at the mare's extreme speed set-up. They are dumping severe excessive and over the top speed on top of an already advantaged Justify son. But the main point here and the tell-tale difference between Just a Touch and Just Steel's chart is that with all of that excessive speed inheritance that he has also displayed to date, he is also sporting the stamina dominant Tapit in his second generation. If that isn't a recipe for Derby success, I don't what is!


At the moment, he is sitting in the same boat as Seize the Grey. He has 25 prep points in his pocket and one month to gain more. If he does, he is loaded and should not be disregarded because he is late to the game. This horse is stacked on both sides of the scale with incredible Derby advantage. He has posted two back to back 97 beyer figures in his short two race career. Just because he has been silent up to this point doesn't mean a late invader isn't holding the goods. He is, in spades. And he has already proven that he is handling the load. This is not a horse to dismiss lightly in a final prep if he shows up with Brad Cox.

 

2. FIERCENESS

DP = 1-3-2-0-0 (6) DI = 5.00   CD = 0.83 Mare Profile = 5-6-6-8-5   Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.92   Triads = 17-20-19


One more good break out of that gate and the horse demolishes the field. That is basically all that needs to be said. Some are downplaying his extraordinary win and stating that he beat a poor field. The only thing I can say about that: Any extremely well bred and high performing horse will always enter a gate against those who can't compare. It means, he is the cream of the crop. It means, he is bred better. It means, he performs better. It means that he will crush anything in his path if you dare enter a gate against him. With Fierceness, Good Break = Untouchable.

 

1. DORNOCH

DP = 2-4-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50   CD = 0.57 Mare Profile = 7-8-2-9-8   Speed = 15   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.89   Triads = 17-19-19


I was so prepared to move Dornoch to second place and move Fierceness up to the top spot but one thing stopped me in my tracks. This guy ran a bullet in 47.20 at Palm Meadows yesterday. That is serious speed for a guy drenched in stamina and who prefers the lead tier. The fact that he has shown an ability to sit behind a surging competitor and still prevail gives us some type of proof that if Dornoch does not secure that lead, he can sit behind if need be. This is something that Fierceness has not shown and in a 20 horse gate, that reassurance becomes very helpful. Gate reservations and breaking cleanly for Fierceness also forces the hand to proceed with caution. This is why Dornoch stays where he was from February, even with a 2.50 index and a slower last prep. As far as betting goes, that's a different story. They would be interlocked on that ticket. Even if Dornoch does not post another 9f win prior to May 4th, he would still remain one of the top players for the 10f contest. That is the race he is built for.


Historically, his 2.50 index is not ideal for the Derby, however, it wasn't ideal for his winning 8.5f maiden. It was not ideal for his winning muddy Remsen. It was not ideal for his easy win down at Gulfstream. What he has is endurance on the lead. He will not be as fast as Fierceness, but his ability to sit off with his wicked staying power and unmatched determination will set him apart at the 10f distance.

コメント


bottom of page