Derby Future Pool Three Analysis - 2025

2025 Kentucky Derby Future Pool Three - January 17th through January 19th

Ratings pertain strictly to the 10f Kentucky Derby and have no bearing on suitability for any Derby Prep Races

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50-1 American Promise Justify - Tapella (Tapit) Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas

DP = 2-6-6-0-0 (14) DI = 3.67   CD = 0.71 ANZ = 3.50

Mare Profile = 10-2-6-5-8   Speed = 12   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.04   Triads = 18-13-19 (2nd gen Tapit)

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

First generation Justify and Second generation Tapit Boy who excelled on a muddy track at 8.5f. Nice hit of Mare early speed with those dominant 10 points in the brilliant category. Beginning to come into his own with killer performance in his last race. A very good prospect moving forward as distances lengthen. Beautiful combination in his chart.

10-1 Barnes Into Mischief - All American Dream (American Pharoah) Trainer: Bob Baffert

DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.67 ANZ = 5.67

Mare Profile = 7-6-5-7-4   Speed = 13   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.25   Triads = 18-18-16

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ + +

Love the uptick to 5.67 through the prominent non-chefs. Triads 2 to 3 points short in 3rd slot but that does not keep this colt from being a superfecta player. This 3.2 Million dollar purchase is expected to have a say on that tote board. Killer horse from a barn that will be on fire for that trophy. He won't be 10-1 come Derby day. Great exacta play.

30-1 Built Hard Spun - Sea Garden (Curlin) Trainer: Wayne Catalano

DP = 3-6-13-0-0 (22) DI = 2.38   CD = 0.55 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 4-3-6-9-6   Speed = 7   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.63   Triads = 13-18-21

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Sticking with the 5 stars from the beginning. This guy is built extremely well for the Derby and is showing massive speed to go along with his incredible stamina inheritance. Very impressive all the way around. Most of us grabbed him at 99-1 during Pool One which was great, and still, at 30-1, not a bad proposition based on his chart and suitability for the 10f task.

20-1 Bullard Gun Runner - Reve D'Amour (Warrior's Reward) Trainer: Mike McCarthy

DP = 3-3-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50   CD = 0.64 ANZ = 3.50

Mare Profile = 2-8-5-11-4   Speed = 10   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.71   Triads = 15-24-20

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

This guy is a definite 5 stars for the 10f but he needs to be downgraded to 4 stars for the time being. He showed us at DelMar that his breeding would not interfere on a fast bias. Combined with his numbers, this was excellent evidence and deserving of 5 stars. Then, on a similar fast bias traveling further, he found it difficult to sustain that early speed and his energy took a nose dive late. He is built to sustain EVEN energy throughout his races and he will not find a slow early pace in the Derby traveling even further. Very promising horse but looks to be a major player in the Jeff Ruby Steaks or the Tampa Bay Derby as opposed to the Kentucky Derby. Should revisit on Derby Day and not now at 20-1.

20-1 Chancer McPatrick McKinzie - Bernadreamy (Bernardini) Trainer: Chad Brown

DP = 1-2-4-1-0 (8) DI = 1.67   CD = 0.38 ANZ = 2.20

Mare Profile = 7-4-4-6-6   Speed = 11   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.00   Triads = 15-14-16

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥

No chance. Mares entire line is completely off. Historically incorrect.

20-1 Citizen Bull Into Mischief - No Joke (Distorted Humor) Trainer: Bob Baffert

DP = 2-6-2-0-0 (10) DI = 9.00   CD = 1.00 ANZ = 11.00

Mare Profile = 3-10-5-11-2   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.05   Triads = 18-26-18

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥

Sticking with the 3 stars for now. Will upgrade to 4 stars once he reveals allegiance to that 9.00 index on the lead. The numbers aren't half bad but until he wins a race based on his own merit not being spoon-fed and reveals allegiance to that 9.00 index and 11.00 ANZ figure, he stays put for now. Preakness is a different story, he'd be closer to that 5 star league for that race - but only if Baffert happens to lose the Derby with another, that is. If Baffert takes the Derby on another, all bets are off for this guy for the 2nd jewel. Baffert wants the Triple Crown trophy. His Derby Winner becomes the Chosen One, all others would then be considered assets to make that happen.

50-1 Coal Battle Coal Front - Wolfblade (Midshipman) Trainer: Lonnie Briley

DP = 1-7-3-1-0 (12) DI = 3.80   CD = 0.67 ANZ = 3.80

Mare Profile = 8-7-4-5-5   Speed = 15   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.42   Triads = 19-16-14

Rating for the Derby: ♥

His configurations are the perfect blueprint for what does not work in the Kentucky Derby. No. No. No.

50-1 Colloquial Vekoma - Terminology (Bernardini) Trainer: George Weaver

DP = 1-4-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.60 ANZ = 4.60

Mare Profile = 6-4-5-6-8   Speed = 10   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.78   Triads = 15-15-19

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥

He gets 3 stars for being blessed with 10f+ ability, however, its almost too much which would inevitably cut into his speed. He is built much better for a 12f Belmont and unfortunately that cant happen for him this year. Nice breeding and could see him excelling against Bullard in the Jeff Ruby should they show up. The ANZ upgrade to 4.60 is very intriguing and he deserves monitoring as we move into Pool 4. Not now.

40-1 Cyclone State McKinzie - Chanel's Legacy (Dominus) Trainer: Chad Summers

DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 8-2-5-11-5   Speed = 10   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.88   Triads = 15-18-21

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Configurations are correct. Major speed and major stamina inheritance is excellent. He needs to exhibit capability of true speed on a fast bias and that he is grabbing ahold of that inheritance. Wait for the evidence first.

50-1 Disco Time Not This Time - Disco Chick (Jump Start) Trainer: Brad Cox

DP = 1-2-11-0-0 (14) DI = 1.55   CD = 0.29 ANZ = 2.64

Mare Profile = 6-10-3-8-4   Speed = 16   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.32   Triads = 19-21-15

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥

Looks like a "Simplification 2.0." Nice enough numbers up top for board hit consideration low in a superfecta. Exhibiting very nice speed already but the added speed from his sire Not This Time and the diminishing mares line will affect his energy going 10f. Can he lug in 14 lengths behind and grab a piece of the board - Yes, but so could they all. Looks like a very nice prospect in the Preakness range.

40-1 Donut God Into Mischief - Sweet Kisses (Carpe Diem) Trainer: Brian Lynch

DP = 0-2-4-0-0 (6) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.33 ANZ = 4.00

Mare Profile = 3-10-6-9-2   Speed = 13   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.16   Triads = 19-25-17

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Lead speed guy who is built just like Citizen Bull with the same running style. The only difference though is that his Roman chefs offer him a shot at some extra stamina, albeit minimal in excess. The non-chefs do dip into it. He's very fast early and has 2 wins at the 5f and 6f distance, so we know he is capturing that speed. We have that evidence but we dont have the other side. This guy does have potential and would be a "just in case" type early futures bet at this point.

15-1 East Avenue Medagia d'Oro - Dance Music (Ghostzapper) Trainer: Brendan Walsh

DP = 5-9-8-2-0 (24) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.71 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 13-3-2-5-6   Speed = 16   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.63   Triads = 18-10-13

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥

Good for Derby Prep distances and the Dirt Mile in November. Possible for Preakness, but that may be pushing it. Great potential with his configurations to make a name for himself in his career, but not at the 10f distance. The mares contribution is backwards, which in turn, hikes his speed side of the scale in the opposite direction of 10f.

30-1 Ferocious Flatter - Napier (Midnight Lute) Trainer: Gustavo Delgado

DP = 7-5-12-0-0 (24) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.79

Mare Profile = 7-4-4-5-9   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.81   Triads = 15-13-18

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥

He falls just shy of the 10f, however, possibly hits it for lower "board-hit" potential. Not the greatest set-up for the Derby, but not the worst to secure a small piece. Configurations lack for a Futures Bet.

30-1 First Resort Uncle Mo - Fair Maiden (Street Boss) Trainer: Eoin Harty

DP = 1-2-5-0-0 (8) DI = 2.20   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 1.67

Mare Profile = 7-3-4-9-5   Speed = 10   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.91   Triads = 14-16-18

Rating for the Derby: ♥

These are not Kentucky Derby Configurations but the distance is there. Needs to show evidence of serious natural speed capability with that 2.20 index going forward, so far he really hasn't.

30-1 Gaming Game Winner - So Stylish (Johannesburg) Trainer: Bob Baffert

DP = 6-2-6-0-0 (14) DI = 3.67   CD = 1.00 ANZ = 5.67

Mare Profile = 8-4-3-4-11   Speed = 12   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.79   Triads = 15-11-18

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥

The distance is there but out of all of Bafferts crew, he is holding the least desirable configurations of the bunch for the race at Churchill Downs. Also, his set-up does not scream lead runner, but this is how Baffert is "race training" him. His configurations would appear better served at reserving energy for the final stretch. If he starts running mid-pack in future preps, stars would get upgraded to 4. Son of Game Winner would favor stamina side.

50-1 Getaway Car Curlin - Surrender Now (Morning Line) Trainer: Bob Baffert

DP = 5-5-8-0-0 (18) DI = 3.50   CD = 0.83 ANZ = 4.00

Mare Profile = 8-3-1-8-10   Speed = 11   Stamina = 18   Index = 0.69   Triads = 12-12-19

Rating for the Derby:  ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Out of Baffert's crew so far, this guy is holding the 2nd most stamina of the bunch (just below Varney) plus he is displaying competitive speed. He needs that 10f track to shine above Baffert's speedsters who will always stand out first this early and at the shorter distances. If he stays put and competes in the USA, he has a greater chance to excel in May. If he is shipped overseas for a race, he would excel there but could take a toll upon his arrival home.

50-1 Grande Curlin - Journey Home (War Front) Trainer: Todd Pletcher

DP = 6-10-12-0-0 (28) DI = 3.67   CD = 0.79 ANZ = 3.67

Mare Profile = 5-6-1-9-8   Speed = 11   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.65   Triads = 12-16-18

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥

10f distance is absolutely there from his mare contributors. Stamina side tips the scale to a greater extent which has an affect against his speed capability going the distance. Stagnant numbers for the Derby but trust that the 10f is easily attained. Would imagine that Todd has better.

99-1 Grayscale Frosted - Petunia (Into Mischief) Trainer: Saffie A. Joseph

DP = 1-5-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00   CD = 0.70 ANZ = 3.80

Mare Profile = 8-7-4-6-8   Speed = 15   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.04   Triads = 19-17-18 (2nd gen Tapit)

Rating for the Derby:  ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Built incredibly well for the Derby. Combination of Tapit and Into Mischief covering his 2nd generation with a 4.00 index is stellar. Lead Style of running is excellent, showed a blast of speed capability in his solo maiden win as well. Excellent potential with his breeding and configurations. Historically correct in every way.

30-1 Gunmetal Gun Runner - Classy Dancer (Speightstown) Trainer: Brad Cox

DP = 1-2-7-0-0 (10) DI = 1.86   CD = 0.40 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 8-2-4-10-5   Speed = 10   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.92   Triads = 14-16-19

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ + + (expecting to upgrade moving forward)

10f distance is there. Major shift in balance when adding the prominent non-chefs into the mix. Lead tier runner and highly capable of tackling the Churchill Track. Very impressive and very fast maiden win out on the lead and dictating the pace against the backdrop of those configurations says he has something very special. Candy Ride descendants usually show off later in the game but this guy didnt want to wait. Great momentum and potential to upgrade as we move along. For a 1.86 stamina category horse, which is very important to consider when handicapping the Derby, this guy looks very promising.

50-1 Guns Loaded Gun Runner - Sky My Sky (Bernardini) Trainer: Jose D'Angelo

DP = 1-2-7-0-0 (10) DI = 1.86   CD = 0.40 ANZ = 3.57

Mare Profile = 3-6-5-6-6   Speed = 9   Stamina = 12   Index = 0.74   Triads = 14-17-17

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥

Ditto with Gunmetal. Exactly the same in everyway except that Gunmetal above has a few extra positive points to grab ahold of.

50-1 Hill Road Quality Road - Exotic Notion (Lemon Drop Kid) Trainer: Adrian Murray

DP = 3-2-9-2-0 (16) DI = 1.46   CD = 0.38 ANZ = 2.08

Mare Profile = 10-2-3-6-10   Speed = 12   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.86   Triads = 15-11-19

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥

Nice horse. Easy 10f distance capability. Rear runner who showed ease of speed late. Overseas races split between bad and excellent. Mares line is harsh. Hard to bypass the Lemon Drop Kid factor but configurations suggest that in the Kentucky Derby he would need a serious lead tier meltdown to compete. Not impossible, but you would most likely secure the same odds come Derby day for this longshot.

50-1 Innovator Authentic - Inspired (Unbridled's Song) Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas

DP = 3-13-4-0-0 (20) DI = 9.00   CD = 0.95 ANZ = 9.00

Mare Profile = 1-10-8-7-4   Speed = 11   Stamina = 11   Index = 0.87   Triads = 19-25-19

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Don't let the race record fool you. A few troubled trips along the way but he is coming into his own now and will excel each time the track extends further. This horse is built incredibly for the Derby. His display of killer speed is a testament to Unbridled's Song (Intermediate chef) in the 2nd generation and the balance of his scale is wonderful at the 10f distance. 7 races under his belt already, he's gearing up. Nicely bred horse. These are quintessential Derby numbers. WOW!

40-1 Jonathan's Way Vekoma - Female Drama (Indian Charlie) Trainer: Philip Bauer

DP = 1-1-4-0-0 (6) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 2.00  

Mare Profile = 7-3-6-8-5   Speed = 10   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.96   Triads = 16-17-19

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥

Dropped from 4 stars down to 3 stars. Didn't follow through, and with a 2.00 index, that was imperative to do.

20-1 Journalism Curlin - Mopotism (Uncle Mo) Trainer: Michael McCarthy

DP = 4-5-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57   CD = 0.81 ANZ = 3.67

Mare Profile = 6-5-4-7-7   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.84   Triads = 15-16-18

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥

Beating a trio of Baffert's boys at 8.5f does not constitute a Derby player. Configurations are historically incorrect and very stagnant. Mare profile leaves plenty to be desired. Add him to a couple of others on this list who can easily grab Derby points, secure a gate, and then can be easily crossed off when handicapping come Derby Day. The more of that kind, the better!

40-1 Keep It Easy Hard Spun - Boxwood (English Channel) Trainer: Dale Romans

DP = 3-7-14-0-0 (24) DI = 2.43   CD = 0.54 ANZ = 2.43

Mare Profile = 5-3-4-9-8   Speed = 8   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.59   Triads = 12-16-21

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Stamina to burn as these are 12f Belmont numbers, not Kentucky Derby numbers. That said, for a 2.43 indexed colt he has shown some serious high quality with wins exhibiting multiple running styles. Lead speed fractional times in his short maiden win are extremely impressive with these configurations. My kind of horse!

50-1 Madaket Road Quality Road - Frolic's Dream (Smoke Glacken) Trainer: Bob Baffert

DP = 2-2-8-0-0 (12) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 2.00

Mare Profile = 14-1-2-5-12   Speed = 15   Stamina = 17   Index = 1.00   Triads = 17-8-19

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥

Historically incorrect for a win in the Kentucky Derby. These are board hit numbers underneath. Baffert has much better "Derby Players" in his barn and most likely, he already knows that. This means that Madeket Road would more likely become a "strategy asset" rather than the main focus. Configurations are off.

80-1 Magnitude Not This Time - Rockadelic (Bernardini) Trainer: Steve Asmussen

DP = 2-7-11-0-0 (20) DI = 2.64   CD = 0.55

Mare Profile = 4-9-5-8-3   Speed = 13   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.16   Triads = 18-22-16

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥

Steve may be thinking Epicenter 2.0 with another Not This Time boy but the bottom of the chart says otherwise. Definitely inherited capability to run a 10f distance which makes him possible board hit material but configurations are harsh for a win at this early stage. Better served to see how he moves later because we already know that Baffert will scoop up those low odds and favorite spots, leaving guys like Magnitude in the double digit tier. Keep an eye on him for possible use underneath.

50-1 Owen Almighty Speightstown - Tempers Rising (Bayern) Trainer: Brian Lynch

DP = 4-5-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57   CD = 0.81 ANZ = 4.33

Mare Profile = 6-4-8-5-5   Speed = 10   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.04   Triads = 18-17-18

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥

Configurations are boring and ordinary. Nothing really screams player although the distance is plausible. Much better contenders with incredible balance found elsewhere for now. Be aware of progression moving forward.

20-1 Patch Adams Into Mischief - Well Humored (Distorted Humor) Trainer: Brad Cox

DP = 1-1-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 5.00

Mare Profile = 4-7-5-11-4   Speed = 11   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.83   Triads = 16-23-20

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ +++

Absolutely positively a superstar for the Kentucky Derby in every aspect. Quite possibly the only horse at this stage of the game who could easily go toe to toe with Baffert, if not surpass completely. Major Top Tier 10f player, without a shadow of a doubt, for Churchill Downs in May. This guy is an Epicenter-League colt.

40-1 Poster Munnings - Pin Up (Tapit) Trainer: Eoin Harty

DP = 2-7-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57   CD = 0.69 ANZ = 4.14

Mare Profile = 8-5-3-5-8   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.00   Triads = 16-13-16 (2nd gen Tapit)

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Second generation Tapit with a 3.57 index is board-hit worthy and a half decent prospect for Exacta Pool betting, but not on the top spot.

50-1 Rated by Merit Battalion Runner - Banner Waving (Speightstown) Trainer: Michael Yates

DP = 3-16-7-0-0 (26) DI = 6.43   CD = 0.85 ANZ = 7.00

Mare Profile = 13-1-3-4-8   Speed = 14   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.30   Triads = 17-8-15

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥

This guy will disintegrate before the stretch at 10f. The Kentucky Derby is not his race even though he has the goods to dictate the pace. His speed is too overly defined. Seize the Grey type. Possible Preakness Player and definitely built exceptionally well for the Dirt Mile. Nice horse but not at 10f.

***UPDATE 1/31 - Rated by Merit is now off the Derby Trail due to Bone Bruising per trainer.***

20-1 Rodriguez Authentic - Calaya (Cherokee Run) Trainer: Bob Baffert

DP = 1-1-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 4-5-8-12-2   Speed = 9   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.88   Triads = 17-25-22

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Sire Authentic is dropping very nice configurations on all of his offspring, no doubt about that. Slight red flag with such low profile points (only 4) - which of course tells of extremely low listed chef contributors. But the kicker, Baffert pulled it off before with American Pharoah (only 8 points) - so nothing is impossible for Baffert this year. Yes on the 10f and yes on beautifully configured mare numbers. If this horse gets a gate, he won't be anywhere near 20-1. Most likely, a favorite.

50-1 Romanesque Practical Joke - Monyslittlegracie (Alphabet Soup) Trainer: Bob Baffert

DP = 0-1-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 8-6-4-7-7   Speed = 14   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.04   Triads = 18-17-18

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥

Baffert has much better elsewhere. Same boat as Madaket Road. Distance is half decent, but the weight on each side of the scale is not shattering like his others.

50-1 San Saba Justify - Palace Princess (Hard Spun) Trainer: Bob Baffert

DP = 2-4-10-0-0 (16) DI = 2.20   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 8-3-6-9-7   Speed = 11   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.86   Triads = 17-18-22

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ +++

Do not get blinded by the razzle dazzle of Baffert's speedy winners and neglect this guy. San Saba is not a sprinter and he will absolutely thrive at the 10f distance. That is what he is built for. The jump from the 2.20 Roman index to the 3.00 ANZ Index is exciting and his mare's line is perfection. Major 10f player and at 50-1, a great play in January. The only knock is that he will need to step up and mature quicker in order to secure points below his optimum against his own speed-driven barn mates in the same races. One must assume that Baffert knows his horses well enough to make that happen.

80-1 Sandman Tapit - Distorted Music (Distorted Humor) Trainer: Mark Casse

DP = 6-15-13-2-0 (36) DI = 3.24   CD = 0.69 ANZ = 3.24

Mare Profile = 8-5-1-7-8   Speed = 13   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.92   Triads = 14-13-16 (2nd gen Tapit)

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Tapit son with a 3.24 index. Ditto with Poster above. Will do better with distance. Tapit offspring are usually lop-sided to the stamina side which knocks the balance - but at least there is heftiness in the Intermediate slot of his chefs profile. That is necessary for the Derby. Also, the 36 total points in his chefs profile is an asset based on the higher amount of listed chefs (masters of the breed) found within his chart. Board hit material unless, of course, he starts running like Flightline. Then he would break the mold.

25-1 Sovereignty Into Mischief - Crowned (Bernardini) Trainer: Bill Mott

DP = 2-3-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33   CD = 0.88 ANZ = 7.00

Mare Profile = 3-10-5-7-4   Speed = 13   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.05   Triads = 18-22-16

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Forced to drop this guy from 5 stars down to 4 stars for this particular pool. This is based solely on pitting him against these particular players as opposed to his 5 stars from Pool One. It is also because of the drop in the 3rd slot of the triads. I still believe the numbers are very nice for Kentucky in May, but up against the other Into Mischief offspring and some other players here, he falls to board-hit material for this Pool, so exacta plays still stand.

50-1 Tappan Street Into Mischief - Virginia Key (Distorted Humor) Trainer: Brad Cox

DP = 1-1-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 7.00

Mare Profile = 4-10-5-7-4   Speed = 14   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.15   Triads = 19-22-16

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Built exactly like Sovereignty in every way. Sits in the same exact boat with the triads but at double the odds. Going forward, these two must be joined at the hip. Exactly what was said about Sovereignty pertains here. Monitor both, keeping them tightly bound. The numbers never lie and can never be disregarded.

99-1 Tiztastic Tiz the Law - Keesha (Tapit) Trainer: Steve Asmussen

DP = 1-5-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00   CD = 0.70 ANZ = 6.00

Mare Profile = 10-5-3-6-5   Speed = 15   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.47   Triads = 18-14-14 (2nd gen Tapit)

Rating for the Derby: ?????

I can't rate this horse with any confidence yet. I am too baffled by too many elements. He could easily be 1-star for some of those factors but on the flip side, easily go to 5-stars for the other factors. This is one set-up that I have never come across yet and I refuse to steer anyone in the wrong direction if I am not 100% with the chart and configurations. Tapit offspring have their own set of rules but this guy throws in a massive wrench. On the one hand, he offsets the Tapit stamina beautifully with those 4.00/6.00 indexes. Mares throwing in even more extreme speed. That is usually major and might even garner 5 stars for that exquisite potential with that scale - BUT - there are two reasons to step back and pause.

One, he is a rear runner and a turf winner which says he is favoring his stamina side. This of course comes into major consideration based on the fact that Tiztastic is holding Tapit TWO TIMES in his chart. 3rd generation on top through Constitution and in the 2nd generation through his mare. That is a DOUBLE SHOT of Tapit influence which goes against the grain in the Derby.

When it comes to inheritance and Derby history: Massive speed + Massive stamina = Derby player.

4.00/6.00 chef indexes + 1.47 Mare Index = Exceptionally Massive Speed

Double shot of Tapit = Exceptionally Massive Stamina

This inheritance fits the bill perfectly. This would be Major for the Derby.

This should constitute 5 stars automatically. But...

Tapit boys do not win the Derby because of the natural thrust toward stamina.

Now with this guy - two full shots of Tapit says it obliterates his speed. That would constitute 1 star for a win in Kentucky.

Do you see the dilemma?

Numbers and configurations cannot come into play here in January and I can't rate him and run the risk of a shady analysis. This is the only early player that needs to be monitored and handicapped based solely on his performances and ability to display speed on a dirt surface against all of that stamina. I have no doubt that he is a 10f player, but I have no conclusive grasp on how his chart and configurations would work historically and to how it would affect his speed side. Put him in your virtual stable and watch every move he makes. Total wildcard, but if I was forced to offer up a guess, I'd go with the 1 - star.

40-1 Varney Vekoma - Summer of Fun (Include) Trainer: Bob Baffert

DP = 1-4-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.60 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 4-4-4-11-5   Speed = 8   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.64   Triads = 12-19-20

Rating for the Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ +++

Unraced colt enters the January Futures Pool at 40-1 with a 5+ star rating from the DHC just goes to show you how stacked Baffert is for this Triple Crown. This is Baffert's race no matter how you slice it. This horse has killer configurations for the 10f in both the Derby and the Belmont this year. (He would have also been stacked in a 12f Belmont.) When you couple these "Stamina-dominant" configurations with the list of his workout times at Santa Anita, he stands out like a sore thumb. Can we assume a Justify 2.0 as an unraced 2 year old? We certainly can. This guy can run 10f blindfolded and backwards and still excel with his speed capability. He will not be 40-1 come May if he has the determination and will to win above his stablemates to secure those points. Major Player.