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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

Candy Man Rocket vs. Rombauer

Understanding the Speed/Stamina Balance

The single most important attribute to being a player in the Kentucky Derby is the ability to go the distance of the 10f. As a handicapper and gambler, there is no better position to be in than having the resources to look at the breeding of any horse and to know which colts on that field have the capability to endure that distance at a high rate of speed.

In the world of breeding and pedigrees, with numerous so-called "pedigree experts" out there, who insist on penning articles touting their expertise with cringe-worthy insight, it would be to your advantage to shut it all out. Most of them will leave out the colt's entire chart and focus directly on items that hold no bearing. The speed/stamina balance of a colt's entire chart will always give you the knowledge of the horse's distance capability when it matters the most, which is the minutes directly before the post parade and the gates open.

The dynamics within the chart, the placement of the colt's chef's index and the addition of his mare's influence will direct you to the colt's true distance potential. The three points will take you full circle and it will land on the specific optimum. You cannot rely on one single aspect within all of the numerical information, it is a compellation of all of the components that sets you on a definite and confident bulls-eye. It is the balance of every number within both sets and where that balance falls directly in line with his furlongs and his lengths capacity.

You cannot simply look at a chefs index to determine how and where that capability will fall. If you do, you will be highly mistaken and you will have no better insight than if you simply listened to those god-awful so-called pedigree experts out there. The world of numbers will always be 100% more accurate and the way they tell the tale is spectacular.

These numbers take the place of the sires (and the mares) names. That's it. Simplicity at its finest and the accuracy that only a number can provide is unmatched. The world revolves around numbers. 2+2 will always equal 4. Einstein used numbers to define the universe. Accuracy and definition. Numbers are amazing in their uncanny ability to morph into any situation. It is no different in the horse racing world. Where numbers fall and how they balance will give you a strong understanding of what exactly went into the making of a new colt and how that balance will dictate his future capability. Every number within that chart is important and crucial and you cannot disregard any one number within both lines. How those numbers balance out when combined together can be astonishing but it also can be the greatest prize you will ever receive as a handicapper.

There are two colts on the Derby trail at this moment who couldn't APPEAR to be any more opposite and who both have the potential to take the roses at Churchill Downs, however, one of them has a severe advantage over the other. If you look at only one aspect in their charts, that opposite look in their breeding (and style) would be extremely deceiving. These two guys are actually on the same even plain as far as optimum distances but you would never know it if you didn't follow through in determining their true balance through all of their numbers. Nothing comes close to the accuracy and definition within these numbers and when you calculate them, you are left with a true "ah-ha" moment.

Candy Man Rocket and Rombauer are both connected by Candy Ride. The top of their charts are exact and separated only by the one generation between Candy Ride and his son Twirling Candy. Through the chefs found on the bottom of their charts through their different mares, one ends up in the "Speed" category and one ends up in the "Stamina" category. Relying on the sole influence of the chefs or Candy Ride alone when trying to determine the outlook and potential of both colts will ultimately leave you with an unfinished picture and a completely inferior analysis of the potential of both of these contenders.

Speed vs. Stamina - or is it?


Chefs: DP = 6-3-6-1-0 (16) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.88

Son of Candy Ride with a 3.00 chef index.

He inherited 3x the amount of speed over stamina from his chefs.

He has a .88 center of distribution in those numbers which translates to exactly 8f optimum distance capability. (Chefs alone)

If you notice the 6 in the first slot of his 5 digit profile, it is exactly the same as his middle classic number. He was lucky to receive a bit of extra stamina from that one extra point in the Solid slot (13f,14f,15f) from the influence of Herbager in his 4th generation but the fact remains that from his chefs we can conclude that the balance of all of his chefs numbers in that profile, when calculated and pinpointed to a direct distance potential, he falls quite short of the 10f distance - or so it would seem. He would appear to be a speed horse and that would be the exact category that he will fall into when grouped with all of the contenders for the 2021 Kentucky Derby.

Having all of those speed qualities from his chefs directly influences his style of running. He utilized that speed inheritance to win his 2nd maiden attempt traveling 6f. He stalked in 2nd position, as dictated by his chefs numbers with high influence in the 4f to 6f slot of his profile. He drew off to win that maiden by 9-1/4 lengths which is exactly how he should run based on the balance of his chefs numbers, running true to form in his style and exactly on par with those chefs.

In the Sam F. Davis, traveling 8.5f, he stayed true to that form again, stalking the lead and then taking charge down that stretch to post his second win. When considering his chefs numbers, his style of running and his ability to capitalize on that 3.00 chef index at these distances are warranted and directly on par with his speedy inheritance.


Chefs: DP = 2-1-7-0-0 (10) DI = 1.86 CD = 0.50

Son of Twirling Candy and Grandson of Candy Ride.

He inherited only 1.8x the amount of speed over stamina from his chefs.

He has a .50 center of distribution in those numbers which translates to exactly 9f optimum distance capability. (Chefs alone)

Notice the minimal amount of points found in that chefs profile, only 10 points - which is distributed through the influences of Giants Causeway (C) - Mr. Prospector (B,C) and Danzig (I,C). Only 3 chefs comprise his first 4 generations, with all three contributing to his classic slot, however they also take some of that classic stamina away while contributing to his Brilliant and Intermediate slots as well.

With his 1.86 stamina index and dominance in the classic slot (although watered down from the speed influence) Rombauer has a running style that is completely opposite of Candy Man Rocket. He is running true to his inheritance as well, preferring to allow the dictates of his balance to shine as well. Each race that Rombauer has run has come from the back of the pack, whether in triumph or defeat, and the balance of his chefs dictates his preference. With this style of running, he will ultimately need to rely on the behest of the lead speed in all of his races, especially as it pertains to the shorter Derby preps.

It is obvious from his 3 out of 5 successful performances with this chefs profile that he does have the late jets to compete against speed when they falter and the longer the distances progress, it will ultimately see to it that many lead speedsters will fall short as they approach that wire. This will ensure that Rombauer will find easier successes as he gears closer to the 9f distance.

Reliance on only one side of the "Balance" will leave you with one colt in the speed category with an optimum of 8f and one colt in the stamina category with an optimum of 9f. This assessment couldn't be any more inaccurate or astoundingly ridiculous if you tried. It is as foolish, absurd, ludicrous and as laughable as the vast amount of the so-called "pedigree-gurus" analysis' out there floating on the web. Pilot yourself as far away as you can from anything resembling such a one-sided dissection. It is akin to a breakdown of the resume of Candy Ride or to one or two sires in a chart or how the immediate mare fared on the race track. Using one or two sires or mares in a chart and cherry-picking certain attributes here or there is not insight - it is a travesty and it is just downright wrong.

Let's continue with Candy Man Rocket and Rombauer in gaining an accurate and full realization as to their true inheritance capability and pinpoint exactly where their true optimum falls. In the assessments, we will look at and balance out ALL ASPECTS of their dominating influences which can only be attained by considering the elite sires (chefs) combined with the elite mares (reines) within the colts chart. Not one sire or one mare has any greater influence than the other within each of the descending generations. The only true way to get the most accurate account is to balance out the strongest influences as they descend down the generations. Only with the use of numbers can this be achieved and as the history of these numbers prove time and time again, no speech on how a single sire or mare performed on a track during their time has any bearing on what they passed down to their offspring as it pertains to their average winning distances along the way.

When combining each sires and each mares Average Winning Distances in their previous offspring and balancing them through the use of numbers, you are in essence thoroughly and accurately giving credence to all influences and not cherry-picking a few. How the sire or mare performed on the race track during their time has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on the mating ritual and what that mating produced in previous offspring and their ultimate distance capability. If a sire consistently won 10f races during his time but 100 of his offspring were proficient and champions in 8f Graded stakes races, then the sire's resume has no bearing. This is exactly what happens in that breeders shed. Every day. Every Year. Every decade. Combining all of those AWD's within the chart is called accuracy.


Mare Profile = 5-3-5-4-11 Speed = 8 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.58 Triads = 13-12-20

When calculated, the mare's center of distribution in that profile is NEGATIVE .46.

From the mares alone, Candy Man Rocket gained a stamina inheritance equal to 12.7f capability.

Neglecting that fact would crush your Derby handicapping and leave you with a ticket destined for the trash heap. When combining the mares, who are just as influential, if not more influential than the chefs when it comes to the Kentucky Derby, you are looking at a "speed" colt with a combined optimum distance of 11.1f - at the bare minimum. This horse is primed for a major success in not only the Derby, but the entire Triple Crown. He has the speed and stamina balance that wins the Derby time and time again (on a clean track) and he has the speed and the style to compete in the Preakness. He has a 3.00 chef index which thrives in the Belmont Stakes and he is packing more than enough mare stamina to go that 12f distance. Candy Man Rocket is not just Derby material. He is Triple Crown Material and if you only consulted the chefs, or, even worse, simply consulted certain sires and mares in the chart and not the AWD's of ALL involved in that chart, you would be completely betrayed.

Candy Man Rocket is a far cry from a "speed horse" in the true sense of the word even though he will fall into that 3.00 speed category. These are the configurations that dominate the Derby on a clean fast track and his style of running gives him one of the best advantages seen to date for the Kentucky race. (Lemon Pop is a close second)


Mare Profile = 4-3-6-8-8 Speed = 7 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.57 Triads = 13-17-22

When calculated, the mare's center of distribution in that profile is NEGATIVE .45

From the mares alone, Rombauer gained a stamina inheritance equal to 12.63f capability.

The fact that both Rombauer and Candy Man Rocket are descendants of Candy Ride and gives one 8f capability and one 9f capability through the chefs is basically a moot point. One has Kenny Lane as their immediate mare and the other Cashmere and that also is a moot point. The only thing that matters is that the balance of those mares in both charts with differing bottoms through their separate mares puts them at the exact same balance stamina wise with the exact same distance capability through their mares. It is the numbers that accurately get you to that 12.7f mare inheritance in distance - and nothing else.

With Rombauer, combining those stellar mare numbers with his chefs gets him to an optimum combined distance of 11.25f. If you look at both of these colts, we are looking at basically the same optimum distance (Rombauer just a slight bit more) coming from the two extreme categories. Both have the Derby distance blind-folded but both hold two competing advantages with that balance and with their style that emanates from that balance.

Even though these two colts reside on the two competing ends of the spectrum, their speed/stamina balance ends up on basically the same exact spot on that scale.

Rombauer also has the distance sewn up but he must rely on other factors besides himself which pushes his advantage further down. Lead speed horses and their distance capabilities aside, the main threat and the central dilemma to Rombauer is Candy Man Rocket. Rombauer has to rely on those up front, pushing a fast pace and falling short of the 10f. His direct rival in the speed category, Candy Man Rocket himself, will be positioned up front and that horse will never ever hit a wall travelling 10f. Rombauer will never get passed Candy Man Rocket but he does have the potential to grab his small piece underneath. At this early stage on the Derby Trail, Candy Man Rocket is sitting with the potential, the best breeding, and the greatest speed/stamina balance for the entire Triple Crown Series. He is built like a steam engine for all three races.


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