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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

The UAE Derby - Brian Does It Again

February 5, 2023 Emirates Airline Conditions 1900m/9.44f Final Time: 1:59.77

Gate #2 - Red and White Striped Cap

Loggins - Off the Trail.

Extra Anejo - still no workouts.

Faustin - staying with Baffert.

Newgate - hock issues and sidelined.

Tapit Trice - showed less than 1/4 mile of speed.

Forte - distance issues.

Scoobie Quando - No Dirt Races Yet.

Confidence Game - Inconsistent

Slip Mahoney - Promising, but needs to post a win.

Ungodly Mild Weather affecting biases and advantages.

And on and on and on.

Your host here at the Club has been fairly down on this year's cast of characters. Not one complete stand-out in sight. There are a handful of talented horses including Rocket Can, Victory Formation, Angel of Empire, etc. but not one of them has shown that elite power that is attached to their breeding yet. Somber times for a website that dedicates it all to the Triple Crown.

But have no fear - Brian to the rescue - yet again. Every year, this persistent guy will send an email, quietly and without any fanfare, and he completely floors me.

A couple of days ago, I had started to compile a list of entries for the Dubai World Cup Day with a focus on all of the contenders from Japan for an article. My thinking was that with how dismal the Road has been looking on this side of the ocean, maybe it was the perfect storm for Japan to finally stake its claim. They do have the wind at their backs, and horses like Lani are a far cry from what has been occupying the Winners Circles across the seas these days.

Japan stormed Dubai last year and dominated those races. This year, with horses like Equinox, Panthalassa, Vera Azul, Remake, Jun Light Bolt, TO Keynes, Cafe Pharoah, Geoglyph, Do Deuce, and Lemon Pop among their 27-horse brigade, they will surely look to do the same again this year.

Laser-focused yesterday and this morning on the five entries from Japan who will be starring in the UAE Derby; Dura Erede, Derma Sotogake, Continuar, Perriere and Goraiko, I was in the midst of typing an early article for the race.

But Brian's email stopped me in my tracks.

This is all he sent me:

"Thoughts on this profile..."

2nd Gen Tapit on top

DP = 4-8-6-0-0 (18) DI = 5.00 CD = 0.89 Conduit Mare Profile = 9-5-6-7-6 Speed = 14 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.16 Triads = 20-18-19

That's it. That's all I got. It took all of about 6 seconds for my heart to start racing. I didn't even inquire about his name.

Just two simple questions:

  1. Was the horse showing any speed?

  2. Was it early or late?

The only thing I wanted to hear back was that this horse was a late runner. As a 2nd generation Tapit boy with those configurations, please, oh please, let him say LATE! Just let it be opposite of that 5.00 index.

Brian had no written answer, he simply sent me his last 2 replays.


March 4, 2023 Al Bastakiya 1900m/9.44f Final Time 1:58.91

Gate #3 - Red and White Striped Cap

Hayes.Gerard, you were talking about acceleration being critical for the Kentucky Derby, and the lack thereof with Tapit Trice the other day. How was that for acceleration?? I can't stop looking at his legs pumping down that stretch. The height of his knee and the extension as he forges ahead for that wire.

Trained and owned by Fawzi Nass, who splits his time between Bahrain and Dubai, Go Soldier Go was bred in Kentucky and sold for the bargain price of 45k at Keeneland. He was then shipped and sold again in Dubai to the trainer/owner Nass for 136k.

Go Soldier Go Tapiture - Better Again (Thunder Gulch)

DP = 4-8-6-0-0 (18) DI = 5.00 CD = 0.89

Mare Profile = 9-5-6-7-6 Speed = 14 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.16 Triads = 20-18-19 (2nd gen Tapit)

Even without the strong extra forces of Tapit's genes, these are close to the very best "speed" configurations seen so far on the trail. Five times the speed over stamina from those chefs. Loaded triads. The perfect .89 CD. The 8 in the Intermediate slot of the chef's profile coupled with the 9 in the Brilliant slot of the mare's profile depict an enormous amount of inbred speed. Throw in the high 1.16 mare index and these numbers portray the type of speed that would fly out of that gate, up on the lead, and just burn right through his energy.

Mix in Tapit from his second generation and you could only isolate that stamina power IF THE HORSE SHOWED IT THROUGH HIS STYLE OF RUNNING. Extreme and powerful late energy with the ability to run as far from the rail as need be to get the job done. Spectacular late speed that grows the further he runs.

When adding in his Prominent non-chefs, this guy's ANZ number drops down to a 2.71. Lump in even more stamina and cross it with a 5.00 Roman Index and this horse becomes a powerhouse for the UAE Derby.

Speed horses do not win the UAE Derby. (See UAE Derby Stats article)

I read that Nass said this horse is not a fan of kickback and will sit and bide his time taking the punishment until he gets his cue to move out into a clear open lane. Only then will he begin to engage with the race, accelerating with a vengeance as he passes horse after horse. That is will and determination at its finest. Apparently, it doesn't matter how far out from the rail that open lane occurs, but when he gets there, he flies.

Go Soldier Go will be up against five of Japan's best contenders along with quite a few perfectly bred European monsters, including Cairo. With the highly talented colts competing in this race this year, whoever tackles that wire first will be of superior class. This gate will not be filled with one or two high class speedy horses among a field of duds. This race will be on an entirely different level than what we have seen here in the States so far this year.

There have been two outstanding powerful winners of the UAE Derby who went on to compete at Churchill Downs. Both of them arguably the most talented in their gates. In 2017, Thunder Snow. In 2018, Mendelssohn. Both editions that they competed in were blasted with thunderstorms and the tracks were a sloppy mess. Not ideal for their breeding or upbringing in the least. That was bad luck for them and their connections and highly fortunate for our runners in those two years. The tides will turn eventually, especially when you have a Derby Trail like this year that looks like it meanders through a forest of weeds.

Brian, you outdid yourself this year. This horse is massive.

Look for Japan to stake claim to that Winners Circle all day on March 25th in Dubai, but they have a major superstar to contend with in the Kentucky Derby Prep.


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