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Bowling or Horse Racing

  • May 4
  • 3 min read

Updated: May 13



The harsh reality of the Kentucky Derby is that it starts on a race track and moves into the Bowling alley as soon as those gates open. It is part of the game and the unscathed survive.


Most times, the pins get knocked by pure chance, other times, the ball is laser focused and strategically makes direct hits.


As much as we adore our Kentucky Derby, the harsh truth is that these precious animals take a beating at the hands of jockeys who are vying for their 350k paycheck. There are always going to be a handful of jockeys who want their preferred position and will do what it takes to secure it. Surely, they are even instructed to do it at times.


Truth be told, these tactics are not reserved solely for the Derby. We just scrutinize that race deeper than the other races.


For instance, an earlier race in the day, D. Wayne Lukas happened to draw the dreaded one hole in the Churchill Downs Stakes with Just Steel, a 33 to 1 horse who had no shot in this race. Nik Juarez was aboard.



Looking at Photo One, Just Steel comes straight out of that gate.

In Photo Two, he is now pulled towards the 2 path.

By the 3rd and 4th photos, he's slamming Banishing and Book'em in the 3 path.

By the sixth photo, he's all the way over in the 4 path heading back to the rail.


Could it be simply a coincidence that D. Wayne's buddy, Mr. Bob Baffert, drew the dreaded one hole with Citizen Bull in the Derby and the photos look exactly the same.



In Photo One, Citizen Bull breaks well towards the rail.

Photo Two, somehow he is now headed into the Two Path.

In Photos three and four, he's headed towards the stands, slamming Neoequos, Final Gambit and American Promise.

In Photo five, he's in the 4 path, turning back to the right.

By Photo Six, he's in the clear, heading back to the rail.


It certainly does make you think about that word, strategy, amongst trainers, doesn't it?


But it isn't just a burden against handicapping and the gamblers. It is reckless punishment against the horses. It's dangerous to turn the race track into a bowling alley.


Then there are others who simply want their position with complete abandonment and reckless ambition, even though there was no shot for the colt from the beginning.




Photo One, Brian Hernandez coming out of the 9th gate on Burnham Square cleanly and straight.

Photo Two, Hernandez guides his horse directly from that middle gate immediately towards the rail.

Photo Three, completely disregarding any and all horses on his left.

Photo Four, he careens onward, almost knocking Moreira right off of his mount, almost knocking Luxor off his feet.

Photo Five, undeterred he ventures on to his destination now with momentum, forcing Journalism to a halt.

Photo Six, he proceeds to slam Admire Daytona directly into American Promise, almost wiping out Daytona in the process.


That isn't simply part of the stampede out of the gate. That is coming out of post nine with a mission to get over, regardless of the 8 horses in harm's way. He was sitting on a 9.5f horse to begin with and came close to injuring one jockey and two colts in the process.


Journalism ran on to an incredible performance after taking unnecessary heat from Hernandez in the opening.


After the boxing match and punishment that the two superstars from Japan took from our reckless jockeys right out of the gate, you have to wonder if they may now consider the effort too dangerous and meaningless to even consider in the future.


The Dirty Horse Club will take a breather for a bit, regroup, and venture on.

26 Comments


Unknown member
May 10

Welcome aboard Hill Road!!

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Unknown member
May 07

sure, but Admire Daytona cut off Burnham badly at the 1/2 pole that cost him a much closer finish and everyone and their brother knew Hernandez was going for the rail unlike 'Bull who did his best impression of Bayern.

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Unknown member
May 08
Replying to

I definitely would not go that far. The Japanese are known for training for sloppy and wet tracks. They are masters at it due to their climate. As far as Luxor, he was already successful on a sloppy track. Just because horses don't get a good trip in the Kentucky Derby, doesn't mean they weren't conducive to the race. Year after year, the best horses don't always do well in the Derby and the #1 culprit is the trip. They get steadied, banged, bruised and shuffled right out of the gate and that includes the overseas horses as well as the USA horses. Neoequos on the lead with Citizen Bull didn't aid the speedier horses who were advantaged on that…

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Unknown member
May 07

Thank you Lisa, read and reread your articles and came up with the triple. First one in 45 years😂. Thought it was probably the easiest to get out of all the years of playing but those are my thoughts. Tried to play some supers but got a little to expensive. So just boxed some triples. Think we all think to much about horses and say to ourselves he may win with each horse. Couple of easy cuts for me, especially the two Japanese horses. We keep looking at theses out of country horses and have yet to see one win. If the first one beats me so be it. But your insight is remarkable. The answers are right in front…


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Unknown member
May 07
Replying to

I did alright with Future Pool One, offset some of the loss from the two super tickets. Wish I could have just stuck with a trifecta bet but the super is an obsession. Its alright. There's always the Belmont, Travers and Haskell. Glad you hit!

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Unknown member
May 06

Look at Bullard flashing some speed at Keeneland. What's that all about?!

Bullard worked 4f MT gd in :47.60 B (4/25) at KEE, 05/05/25.

He's starting to resemble the other Gun Runner boy, Disarm.

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Unknown member
May 07
Replying to

Do you think he's ready? Wish they would hold off, maybe give him a conditioner race and wait for the Haskell. I always worry about the Candy Ride boys getting pushed too early.

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Unknown member
May 05

Oh, Gerard - did you realize that you posted the trifecta before Baeza drew into the field in the Head to Head article?!!!! Bam!!!

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Unknown member
May 05
Replying to

I ended up adding Baeza to some tickets.I didn’t play any supers because I was hitting nothing all day either at Newmarket or Churchill.I was happy with the way I handicapped it

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