Belmont Stakes - Head to Head with Gerard & Lisa
- 1 day ago
- 5 min read
2026 Belmont Stakes Saratoga 10f
POST 1: VITRUVIAN MAN Doug O'Neill Antonio Fresu Rear Runner
Gerard: Last seen finishing a non threatening third in the Santa Anita Derby. Looking at the past performances, it looks like he’s on a good race/bad race pattern. I can’t see him improving enough to do any damage here.
Lisa: The horse has been subjected to every bias; AWS, Turf, Sloppy and Fast Dirt, but this time he enters a race that is more conducive to his breeding at the 10f distance. He has the stamina for the race, but the outward late speed that he needs here is lacking. He could straggle in late within these better parameters for his breeding but there are much much better entered here.
POST 2: POWERSHIFT Todd Pletcher Luis Saez Forward Runner
Gerard: Probably best known for his first race when he went toe to toe with Emerging Market. Looked to be outclassed in the Tampa Bay Derby but came back to break his maiden on Derby day. The distance gets longer and he has to carry eight pounds more here and the feeling is he might be here to ensure an honest pace for his stablemate.
Lisa: The Pletcher/Repole entry here appears more strategic than logical and as an obvious aid for Renegade. They'll send him quick from the gate (especially with his lucky #2 post) with hopes that the Tapit factor keeps him going up front at least to the final turn.
POST 3: CHIEF WALLABEE Bill Mott Junior Alvarado Multi Runner
Gerard: This guy has been competitive in all his races and was not disgraced when finishing fourth in the Derby after enduring a horrible stretch run. He won’t face as much traffic here and could be in prime position to get first jump on the closers.
Lisa: I truly don't put much stock into the Derby for any colt exiting that race. This is 10f at Saratoga with a 9-horse field, not a 20-horse field and not 8.5f or 9f at Gulfstream. That said, the combo of Mott/Alvarado within these parameters with a successful grand-son of Tapit make him a logical superfecta player. I like him better than the Derby winner in this spot. Tough call between him and Commandment for higher up on the board.
POST 4: RENEGADE Todd Pletcher Irad Ortiz, Jr. Closer
Gerard: Another one who had a troubled trip in the Derby and was unlucky to come up a neck short. Back to a happier hunting grounds (for Pletcher and Repole) he will need his stablemate to inject a little early pace to set up his stretch run. Deserving morning line favorite.
Lisa: This guy took some punishment out of the gate in the Derby and still came running late. A pure professional. He is the quintessential 10f Classic distance runner with severe class and quality from maiden til now. Better post, less traffic, cleaner trip, and workouts at Saratoga still consistent with works down at Palm Beach, make him the one to beat here. I see him relishing the track at Saratoga alongside one other who may be ready to explode.
POST 5: OTTINHO Chad Brown Dylan Davis Rear Runner
Gerard: Finished second in his last start in the Blue Grass but was a long way back that day. It will be two months since his last start and this seems like a tough spot. I just think there will be too many better on the day.
Lisa: Not in the same league as far as class, speed, and experience. Would have liked him better if we were at Belmont Park running a 12f race because the even balance in his pedigree would have agreed much better within those parameters. 10f at Saratoga - he needs speed.
POST 6: GROWTH EQUITY Chad Brown Manny Franco Forward Runner
Gerard: Interesting entry from the Chad Brown stable was last seen winning a rather lackluster Peter Pan at Aqueduct. This field is a lot tougher than the one he faced that day and Saratoga won’t play like Aqueduct. I can’t see him winning here but he could make some noise in the Travers with a little more experience.
Lisa: This guy was successful at Saratoga, Gulfstream and Aqueduct which shows a very nice quality horse. I fear that his configurations lack for the 10f though and see him as a better fit for the Haskell. Looks to be quite a promising horse moving forward. Could be an aid for Chad's Emerging Market - somehow.
POST 7: COMMANDMENT Brad Cox John Velazquez Mid-Pack
Gerard: He ran some bang up races in Florida and his seventh place finish in the Derby was better than it looked as he was bumped and jostled in the stretch. He figures to get a cleaner trip today and John Velazquez in the irons doesn’t hurt his chances.
Lisa: I see Commandment and Chief Wallabee fairly even for this race with the Chief just a tad luckier late in the Derby - everything else is fairly similar. Both will fly late but I have a slightly different feeling with Johnny V on the mount. He hasn't been firing correctly in these bigger races as of late and he appears to try to run the same race over and over with no positive results - therefore, the nod for 3rd on the trifecta will go to the Chief and I'll save Commandment for lower spots on the Super. The horse always shoots late and hopefully he isn't ridden against the grain and fires again.
POST 8: EMERGING MARKET Chad Brown Flavien Prat Mid-Pack
Gerard: Another one who had issues in the Derby after losing a shoe early on. He has packed a lot into three starts and Brown could have him ready to fire here. I would let the price dictate whether to bet on him or not. I prefer him for the Travers but wouldn’t be surprised if he runs big here.
Lisa: Went back and forth between EM and Renegade for the top pick and finally settled on Renegade. I absolutely believe that EM will love Saratoga just as much as Renegade, but just a slight wary as to whether or not his pedigree has caught up with him yet. I adore this guy (along with Further Ado) and the Derby trip has no bearing on a 9-horse field with his jets and determination. I just think that Renegade's late energy and speed will override in early June - but it will be a different story on August 29th for the Travers. That Candy Ride magic will definitely kick in by then. (I'll still box the two on top because I truly want Emerging Market to win here!)
POST 9: GOLDEN TEMPO Cherie DeVaux Jose Ortiz Closer
Gerard: Came 10 wide to prevail in the Derby but is unlikely to get the same setup here. I can’t see the price holding up as he is the Derby winner and there is the back story of Cherie DeVaux being the first female trainer to win the roses. I can’t see see him being third or fourth but would be surprised if he does better than that.
Lisa: There is no doubt that this horse is built for 10f with his 44 chef points, overtly dominant in the Classic distance, Curlin and Bernardini in his 1st & 2nd generations, and killer mare scale but LUCK doesn't come into play here like it does for the Derby. Skill and talent with late sustaining speed on a 9-horse field is the key here and I think there are better in all 3 categories. If he beats me, it wouldn't be the first time!
TRIFECTA PICK:
Gerard:
Chief Wallabee
Renegade
Commandment
Lisa:
Renegade
Emerging Market
Chief Wallabee