American Pharoah Stakes - History and Ratings
- 5 days ago
- 9 min read
Updated: 21 hours ago
The American Pharoah Stakes is a prestigious Grade I race for two-year-olds contested at 8.5f on dirt at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California.
Established in 1970 as the Norfolk Stakes, it was renamed to the Front Runner Stakes in 2012 following the end of a lease agreement with the Oak Tree Racing Association, which had previously managed Santa Anita's fall meet.
In 2018, the race was renamed the American Pharoah Stakes to honor its 2014 winner, American Pharoah, who went on to become the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years the following season.
The event serves as a key "Win and You're In" qualifier for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and awards 10 qualifying points to the winner on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Purse has been consistently $300,000 since 2014, with $180,000 to the winner.
For our purposes, the 11 editions between 2014 to 2024 will be scrutinized, with trainer Bob Baffert dominating seven of those winner's circles.
From 2024 back to 2014, it's been a reverse chronicle of prodigies, where trainer Bob Baffert's iron grip (a jaw-dropping 64% win rate) has turned the track into his personal coliseum, spawning Derby dreams and Eclipse shadows in equal measure.
Last year's Citizen Bull, a front-running speedster under Martin Garcia for Baffert, scorching home in 1:43.07 by two lengths, dictating terms from the jump and moving on to another winner's circle in the BC Juvenile.
Muth from 2023, another Baffert speed demon with Juan Hernandez in the irons, who bucked his trainer's tradition off the lead, rallied from 4th position to blaze 1:42.45. He had to settle for 2nd behind Fierceness in the Juvenile.
Hernandez doubled down in 2022 aboard Cave Rock, Baffert's trainee who never saw a horse in front of him during the race, leaving rivals in the dust amid a field of futures. This time settling for 2nd again behind Forte in the BC Juvenile at Keeneland.
The Baffert machine hums on back to 2021 with Corniche, this time with Mike Smith performing another gate to wire win, clinching an Eclipse as champion two-year-old and another gate to wire win in the Juvenile.
I think you get the picture.
Winners List (2024–2014)
Year | Horse | Trainer | Final Time | Style in the Prep | BC Juvenile |
2024 | Citizen Bull | Bob Baffert | 1:43.07 | Gate to Wire | FIRST |
2023 | Muth | Bob Baffert | 1:42.45 | 4th position | SECOND |
2022 | Cave Rock | Bob Baffert | 1:43.05 | Gate to Wire | SECOND |
2021 | Corniche | Bob Baffert | 1:44.75 | Gate to Wire | FIRST |
2020 | Get Her Number | Peter Miller | 1:44.92 | 2nd position | *Did Not Run |
2019 | Eight Rings | Bob Baffert | 1:45.41 | Gate to Wire | SIXTH PLACE |
2018 | Game Winner | Bob Baffert | 1:43.77 | 2nd position | FIRST |
2017 | Bolt d'Oro | Mick Ruis | 1:43.54 | 2nd position | THIRD PLACE |
2016 | Gormley | John Shirreffs | 1:43.57 | Gate to Wire | SEVENTH PLACE |
2015 | Nyquist | Doug O'Neill | 1:44.89 | 2nd position | FIRST PLACE |
2014 | American Pharoah | Bob Baffert | 1:41.95 | Gate to Wire | **Did not run |
*Get Her Number, the surprise winner in 2020 did not compete in the BC Juvenile at Keeneland due to an injury sustained shortly after his victory. Trainer Peter Miller opted to give the colt time off to fully recover.
**American Pharoah, undefeated and fresh off the dominant win, was the early favorite for the 2014 BC Juvenile at Santa Anita Park. However, just days before the event, Baffert made the call to scratch him after discovering a deep bruise in his left front foot.
Running Style
Staying within a good boundery of history, the lead horse or the one pushing the lead sitting in second from the offshoot has won 10 out of the last 11 editions. That is a 91% win ratio on the Santa Anita Bias. This is where Baffert will always have his runners positioned and why he has taken first 70% of the time.
Since the Breeder's Cup Juvenile will be held at DelMar again, Baffert will enter that race with the favorite and most likely will be the easy front running winner.
BREEDING
2024 CITIZEN BULL
DP = 2-6-2-0-0 (10) DI = 9.00 Â CD = 1.00 ANZ = 11.00
Mares = 3-10-5-11-2 Â Speed = 13 Â Stamina = 13 Â Index = 1.05 Â Triads = 18-26-18
2023 MUTH
DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.63 ANZ = 7.00
Mares = 6-7-3-6-7 Â Speed = 13 Â Stamina = 13 Â Index = 0.96 Â Triads = 16-16-16
2022 CAVE ROCK
DP = 2-14-5-1-0 (22) DI = 5.29 Â CD = 0.77 ANZ = 5.29
Mare Profile = 6-3-3-9-6 Â Speed = 9 Â Stamina = 15 Â Index = 0.75 Â Triads = 12-15-18
2021 CORNICHE (Baffert Gate to Wire)
DP = 2-2-6-0-0 (10) DI = 2.33 Â CD = 0.60 ANZ = 2.33
Mares = 12-3-2-6-11 Â Speed = 15 Â Stamina = 17 Â Index = 0.97 Â Triads = 17-11-19
2020 GET HER NUMBER
DP = 3-2-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.80 ANZ = 6.20
Mares = 9-4-7-5-8 Â Speed = 13 Â Stamina = 13 Â Index = 1.04 Â Triads = 20-16-20
2019 EIGHT RINGS
DP = 7-6-5-0-2 (20) DI = 3.44 Â CD = 0.80 ANZ = 4.78
Mares = 5-5-5-10-4 Â Speed = 10 Â Stamina = 14 Â Index = 0.87 Â Triads = 15-20-19
2018 GAME WINNER (Baffert 2nd position)
DP = DP = 3-6-10-1-0 (20) DI = 2.33 Â CD = 0.55 ANZ = 2.33
Mares = 6-1-4-5-11 Â Speed = 7 Â Stamina = 16 Â Index = 0.55 Â Triads = 11-10-20
2017 BOLT D'ORO
DP = 7-11-12-2-0 (32) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.72 ANZ = 3.00
Mares = 11-2-2-4-10 Â Speed = 13 Â Stamina = 14 Â Index = 1.00 Â Triads = 15-8-16
2016 GORMLEY (outlier)
DP = 7-5-12-2-0 (26) DI = 2.25 Â CD = 0.65 ANZ = 2.75
Mares = 6-6-4-6-9 Â Speed = 12 Â Stamina = 15 Â Index = 0.79 Â Triads = 16-16-19
2015 NYQUIST
DP = 1-2-1-0-0 (4) DI = 7.00 Â CD = 1.00 ANZ = 23.00
Mares = 7-1-7-7-6 Â Speed = 8 Â Stamina = 13 Â Index = 0.85 Â Triads = 15-15-20
2014 AMERICAN PHAROAH
DP = 2-3-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33 Â CD = 0.88 ANZ = 7.00
Mares = 7-4-4-9-4 Â Speed = 11 Â Stamina = 13 Â Index = 1.05 Â Triads = 15-17-17
Consulting 11 winners, overwhelmingly dominated by speed driven colts 3.00 and over, with the massive bulk sitting way above that 3.00, especially when the prominent non-chefs are factored in through the ANZ figure. 72% Win ratio.
With Corniche and Game Winner, (both sitting with 2.33 indexes) they were both Baffert Lead and 2nd lead speedsters. This must be factored in when handicapping this year's race. Obviously, the higher speedier indexes are the key on this track bias, but if Baffert enters any that fall within the mid 2.00 categories and THEY RUN UP FRONT - they must still be a high consideration.
There is ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS an outlier (as far as configurations) within any Graded Stakes winners list when other factors (like the lead tier Baffert factor) do not apply. It never fails. For this particular race, that trophy goes to Gormley trained by John Shirreffs. The 10 to 1 longshot bucked tradition, although he still stakes claim to managing the gate to wire win even without Baffert.
Mares generally do not come into play for this race and truly should not factor in this early for a two year old and especially on the Santa Anita bias traveling only 8.5f.
BOTTOM LINE:
3.00+ speed indexes with dominance well over that mark: 72% win ratio
3.00+ speed horses lead or stalking lead in 2nd: 91% win ratio
2.30 and Under with First or second position running style: 27% win ratio
Extreme Speed ANZ Figure/Prominent Non-Chefs: 64% win ratio (Bolt D'oro at 3.00, not extreme)
Gate to wire or stalking the lead: 91% win ratio
Baffert Trained: Took the Win: 64% win ratio. Hit the Trifecta: 91% ratio
Stamina Driven Under 2.00 index: 0% win Ratio, no surprise there at 8.5f at Santa Anita.
October 4th, 2025
AMERICAN PHAROAH STAKES
8.5f Santa Anita
With only 6 entries and 4 of them trained by Baffert, there is no profit here at all. This prep only now serves as a mirror into the Breeders Cup Juvenile and likely better served saving any wagers here to be matched and used there.
Historically, 5 out of the 6 horses are built properly for this 8.5f contest on the Santa Anita bias, which means that aspect is now a moot point. Projected energy along with raw speed should become the key up front, however, in more realistic terms, it now becomes a matter of Baffert's strategy with his 4 colts.
This is now a horrible race to gamble on. This is not set up like the Iroquois where one stood out like a sore thumb based on history and bias. It all revolves around Baffert's strategy in how he ultimately uses his horses at the start of the race.
Post One - DESERT GATE Baffert Juan Hernandez
DP = 3-4-7-0-0 (14) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.71 ANZ = 6.43
Mare Profile = 7-4-6-4-7 Â Speed = 11 Â Stamina = 11 Â Index = 1.00 Â Triads = 17-14-17
Sire: Omaha Beach ($260k) Pharoah Stakes: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ Kentucky Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥
Running Style: Lead, 2nd and 5th positions, won 2 when forward, second when sitting in 5th early
He's got the right configurations plus the split triads set that scream speed. He can run the 8.5f with his eyes closed and his energy has been straight and commendable so far. I see him holding steady with Kristofferson late in the race but ultimately have to give the nod to Nyquist's maiden winner for this one, saving Desert Gate for 2nd place. In the end though, it will boil down to Baffert's strategy.
Post Two - INTREPIDO Mullins Hector Berrios
DP = 1-8-5-0-0 (14) DI = 4.60 Â CD = 0.71 ANZ = 4.60
Mare Profile = 3-6-5-10-4 Â Speed = 9 Â Stamina = 14 Â Index = 0.74 Â Triads = 14-21-19
Sire: Maximus Mischief ($385k) Pharoah Stakes: ♥ ♥ Kentucky Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
Running Style: Basically Gate to wire and 8th at the 2nd call, 1st when up front, 4th from rear (but track too short)
Way too slow up front in his last 8f race to even consider a shot at a win here. Running line at 67 78 101 on the lead??? Flip those numbers and add 1/16th and this colt's energy tanks. Those call times resemble a rear runner, which would revert back to his debut race where he came from the rear, ala Into Mischief's star Sovereignty. Not the best set-up for this race.
Post Three - PLUTARCH Baffert Kazushi Kimura
DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.63 ANZ = 4.00
Mare Profile = 7-6-4-7-8 Â Speed = 13 Â Stamina = 15 Â Index = 0.89 Â Triads = 17-17-19
Sire: Into Mischief (not sold via auction) Pharoah Stakes: ♥ ♥ ♥ Kentucky Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
Running Style: Rear runner, sat 5th and 13th early, came in 2nd place in both.
Very nice style with his breeding that may serve him well later in the game. For this particular race, it bucks tradition for a win. He would need to have Intrepido alone up front trying to keep up with the likes of Kristofferson or Desert Gate but unfortunately for him, both of Baffert's boys has the proper set-up up front to continue on. He'll come running late but at 8.5f, he'll probably end up running out track by that time. Another in the same vein as Sovereignty in terms of that style coming from Into Mischief but he's entered into a race that does not necessarily cater to his strengths.
Post Four - CIVIL LIBERTY O'Neill Antonio Fresu
DP = 0-1-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.50 ANZ = 11.00
Mare Profile = 6-4-6-6-5 Â Speed = 10 Â Stamina = 11 Â Index = 1.00 Â Triads = 16-16-17 (3rd gen Tapit)
Sire: Independence Hall (160k) Pharoah Stakes: ♥ ♥ ♥ Kentucky Derby: ♥ ♥
Running Style: Stalked both race in 2nd and 3rd position, Maiden Non-Winner.
The combinations are very nice, major speed through ANZ and backed with some minor Tapit, and will most likely be able to keep steady pace for 8.5f on this bias. Better distance here than his first two races and may be able to satisfy by beating 1 or maybe even 2 of Baffert's crew - but not all.
Post Five - BALBOA Baffert Umberto Rispoli
DP = 1-3-12-0-0 (16) DI = 1.67 Â CD = 0.31 ANZ = 2.33
Mare Profile = 4-9-5-8-4 Â Speed = 13 Â Stamina = 12 Â Index = 1.05 Â Triads = 18-22-17 (3rd gen Tapit)
Sire: Not This Time ($875k) Pharoah Stakes: ♥ ♥ ♥ Kentucky Derby: ♥ ♥
Running Style: 3rd place when on the lead, 1st place on the lead, 5th place stalking lead. He's all over the place.
He'd be bucking tradition with that 1.67 index, plus, he was used as a rabbit for Brant in his debut. But the main red flag is the exceptional loss of energy in his last 7f race that screams he is here for other purposes. It's unfortunate because based on breeding alone, with Not This Time's speed and Tapit's stamina, there may have been something here away from the West Coast barn. No clue where he'll sit in this race because so far, nothing has been situated properly.
Post 6 - KRISTOFFERSON Baffert Mike Smith
DP = 0-1-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.50 ANZ = 11.00
Mare Profile = 8-1-6-7-7 Â Speed = 9 Â Stamina = 14 Â Index = 0.85 Â Triads = 15-14-20
Sire: Nyquist ($1.15 million) Pharoah Stakes: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ Kentucky Derby: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
Running Style so far: Lead, won maidenÂ
Breeding correct, running style correct, high quality chart that translates to Juvenile, but more importantly, the Kentucky Derby. Showed commanding steady speed across the board in his debut with 4 seconds faster while competing at 6f than his 6f work while alone. That shows determination and a will to win against competition, therefore he gets the highest rating for this race. Most likely Baffert's favored here, but he'll go for that Exacta, if not the Trifecta, with this guy (and Brant) as his early superstars. Top pick for the race with all advantages factored in.