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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

After the Derby - Fake, Phony and Bullshit

Something smelled real fishy in Kentucky yesterday and that putrid stench has made its way across the land. The entire farce has not left me bitter, it has left me questioning the entire sport that I have loved for a better part of my life.

It’s wrong. It doesn’t correlate. It defies history. It makes zero sense. It turns my stomach. It is obvious. It goes against reasoning. It goes silent and unquestioned. It makes me sick. So much so, that I have to stop and somehow forget what I see here for a very long time.

Up until about 6 years ago, the breeding of a horse consistently dictated the fate of the colt in the Kentucky Derby. It read like a script, over and over again. This was about the time when I decided it was time to really put in the work and get it out there. For those beginning years, the numbers were close to infallible. And still, I will say, they do work their magic but something about this year’s edition is even more suspicious than norm.

I know how to read the inbred capabilities of a horse. I am not being smug, I simply know my own track record of consistency over the last 10+ years. Even when I falter and the results are laid out, it has always made complete sense as far as how that order of finish ultimately laid out. Even going as far back as the 60’s in my studies, way before I was even born, the layout of the race results in the Kentucky Derby were as consistent as the sun rising. The pattern always revealed itself. That is, until Bob Baffert hit the stage.

With this year, the crackdown on drugs seemed to appear to be a nice stepping stone into a fair and even horse race. This year was filled with a rare amount of colts bred for the distance. A tough puzzle with 15 horses with the capability to sustain the distance. That number represents an extra 7 colts over norm. Just about every year, with complete dominating consistency, three speed horses and one stamina horse has hit the board in the Kentucky Derby. That stamina horse does not mean simply with an index below 2.00. It could come in the 2.00 category, it would be based on the BALANCE and on the dominance of that balance. This year, is no different in that respect. That is exactly how it turned again - but something is radically strange.

That consistency did not fail (in one respect). Three speed horses and one “other” hit that board. They ultimately made up the classiest of the field and I would venture to guess that most every person in the United States and abroad had those top 4 on their super tickets in some capacity. I will also be honest and say that I boxed the top 4 who hit that board with two other colts (Rock Your World and Brooklyn Strong) for the trifecta as a side bet to my two losing super tickets. It cost me $120.00 for that 1.00 ticket and I cashed. The profit was dwindled substantially by the other two bets. But that is the art of gambling!

Back to the race results. There is something quite amiss with the order of finish of this year’s Derby. Being a gambler, I would bet everything I had, that something “over and above” the use of drugs was employed this year. What I am seeing in these results defies rationality and points directly at that track. The way these results and order of finish lay out look to be further than a million to one odds of it occurring. I have no solid proof but I am also one with half a brain that can see that it is fake and phony and complete bullshit. The obvious and distinct “backwardness” of how the 10f Kentucky Derby has consistently played out vs this year is over the top and points to something close to robbery. With the ban on Lasix this year, it is even more unrealistic and backwards than can even be easily explained in one article. Something is rotten, not in Denmark, but in Kentucky, at Churchill Downs, and it reeks of that white-haired cheat.

The order of finish this year was still consistent with the numbers, however, it was flipped for the entire field. Completely backwards. The top four were the hot shots and graced the top but it points to a complete and total over extension of inbred speed far surpassing what stamina means at 10f. Over the top speed even without the capability and inbred stamina to sustain 10f had a complete and total unrealistic, never seen before, historically impossible, 101% advantage on that surface this year.

In my opinion, based completely on the history of the Kentucky Derby, somehow that track gave OVERT SPEED (regardless of distance capability) the most lop-sided and ridiculous advantage over those who carried a dominance of stamina. Even though the classiest and the higher echelon did hit that board (rightfully-so) it reveals a very telling story as it pertains to the winner and those who came just below Essential Quality.

Again, this is my opinion based on the final results as it compares to the history of this race. I believe that the surface played a very very strong part in what transpired in this race and it 101% benefited Bob Baffert. It spilled down and affected the order of finish. With the ban on drugs, I would bet the entire profit from that trifecta ticket, that somehow that track was manipulated to throw advantage to extreme speed and to the complete and total destruction of stamina. There is no other way that these results could have possibly occurred. It has NEVER EVER happened over the last 50 years.

These results are so blatantly upside-down that I have been left with a complete distaste and respect for this sport that I love so much. So much so, that this will be my last article until the Belmont Stakes and I will look closer at the overseas Graded Stakes races going forward. I sincerely have no faith in the Belmont race being on the up and up either to be perfectly honest. As usual, I always study the order of finish as it pertains to breeding and I have also studied the order of finish of this race dating back the last 50 years. This year, defies logic, it defies history and could only be attributed to nefarious play. There is no other explanation.

Top Board Hitters: All Speed plus one “Baffert Clone” - These top 4 represent the four runners who also were positioned in the first 6 spots at the ¼ pole. Once there, the bias made sure that no other horse could infiltrate it. Again, we are talking about the ¼ pole. If that doesn’t scream CRAZY ENHANCED BIAS than nothing will. That bias flowed in descending order straight down beginning with the heightened advantage of whoever hit that lead spot. STRAIGHT DOWN THE LINE.

1st. 2.20 Medina Spirit DP = 3-6-15-0-0 (24) DI = 2.20 CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 6-5-4-8-7 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.81 Triads = 15-17-19

This horse has consistently lost steam at the tail end of his races traveling 9f and under. He grabs the lead in the Kentucky Derby and somehow wires the field at 10f. Up front, he catches the favorable and illogical ability to sustain outward speed on that lead. He has never pushed his speed passed the 9f mark in any race he has run prior. How does a horse with a track record of winding down prior to 9f hold and sustain a drive past the 9f mark travelling an additional furlong in this race? The lead spot ENHANCED his speed and allowed him to skate along without expending too much energy giving him the ability to sustain that full speedy forward motion the entire 10f. It “intensified” his speed ability with his class. The bias of the track could only allow this to happen and as the following order of finish reveals, there is something extremely fishy and totally apparent.

2nd. 11.00 Mandaloun DP = 2-3-1-0-0 (6) DI = 11.00 CD = 1.17

Mare Profile = 2-9-6-10-2 Speed = 11 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.95 Triads = 17-25-18

This horse represents the absolute highest inbred speed on the field. At the top of the list with an 11.00 chef index. Sporting over double the amount of speed genes on the entire field. This horse hits second very close to Medina Spirit. That bias played directly into this colt’s hoofs and ENHANCED his balance toward his crazy inbred speed. He found great ease with his speed and allowed him to skate easily on that track which augmented his advantage with his class.

3rd. 3.00 Hot Rod Charlie DP = 1-4-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.60

Mare Profile = 11-1-5-11-3 Speed = 12 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.27 Triads = 17-17-19

This horse came in third right with the top two. He had presented to us a track record prior to this race. Killer displayed speed which was ENHANCED on this bias. It allowed for his incredible speed ability to be BOOSTED and raised his advantage with his class.

4th. 3.00 Essential Quality DP = 5-12-14-1-0 (32) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.66

Mare Profile = 12-3-2-2-12 Speed = 15 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.04 Triads = 17-7-16

The favorite did his job but was at a disadvantage for the win all along. The other three beat him because this high caliber talented horse leans more to stamina over his speed. The three who came out over him were all given a severe track bias advantage. He most likely found favor with the track bias as well from his speed side and his class served him well. But his stamina inheritance kept him from the wire. I would venture to guess that the intensified bias played a part against his Tapit stamina and this (to me anyway) confirms the quality of this horse.

5th. 3.57 O Besos DP = 4-5-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57 CD = 0.81

Mare Profile = 4-4-6-5-9 Speed = 8 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.62 Triads = 14-15-20

High 3.57 index colt gets ENHANCED as well with excellent numbers for this race. The horse has 3.5 times inherited speed and with the apparent colossal bias which gave favor to speed put him at an even greater advantage for this race. The top 5 all gained a substantial boost which overwhelmingly leaned to speed inheritance and the class above the other speed horses. They towered disproportionately over stamina and with complete disregard to 10f distance as will be shown below. The classiest of the highest speed inheritance tops the race results regardless of anything else and the enhanced bias saw to it.


Next Tier filled with Speed Oriented Colts without the 10f distance, Speed Dominant - These three horses were the EASIEST and QUICKEST tosses of the entire field. Not one of them has the 10f in their breeding and yet, each one of them BEAT EVERY SINGLE SOLITARY STAMINA DOMINANT CONTENDER. How in the fck does that make any sense??? Where is the logic in that?

6th. 2.50 Midnight Bourbon DP = 4-2-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.71

Mare Profile = 9-3-3-5-6 Speed = 12 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.20 Triads = 15-11-14

This horse is speed dominant WITHOUT the ability to sustain it the entire 10f. His speed balance tilts to the mares 1.20 index and his triads and the set-up is completely backwards against those with 10f under their belt. His speed ability was completely enhanced since the stamina colts found no footing and dropped like flies on that surface. He gained extra lengths because of it. He gained the same favor as Medina Spirit but since the true distance was completely sub-par, this got him as far up as 6th place on this talented 10f field. This makes no sense and confirms the beginning of the tale with this particular order of finish.

7th. 2.00 Keepmeinmind DP = 0-2-4-0-0 (6) DI = 2.00 CD = 0.33

Mare Profile = 11-2-2-4-8 Speed = 13 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.18 Triads = 15-8-14

Exactly the same as Midnight Bourbon. EXACT. One of the easiest tosses for the 10f Derby somehow sees his speed completely enhanced and beats every single stamina horse on the field. That is 101% because of a one-sided fake and phony speed-catering bias on that Derby track. The only way that this horse beats out 10f stamina runners in the Derby is if he was given a heightened advantage with the bias. This horse has a 1.18 mare index below a chef profile containing 6 points. In a “normal” Derby, the chance that a horse bred like this could OUTLAST the stamina on this field is a million to one. This statement is ditto for the one above him and the one below him on this order of finish.

8th. 3.00 Helium DP = 4-3-7-0-0 (14) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.79

Mare Profile = 10-5-3-8-9 Speed = 15 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.97 Triads = 18-16-20

Exactly the same as Keepmeinmind and Midnight Bourbon. This horse has a 9.5f capability and he beat out every stamina horse on the field. EVERY ONE OF THEM. He did it because of a completely and totally heightened speed favoring bias. Again, this has to be a million to one for this to happen and could only logically be explained as an overly enhanced bias which benefited Medina Spirit and trickled down to each and every speed leaning colt who inherited much more speed that went against their 10f capability. These results are transparently backwards and reaffirms to me that the top eight were all given a “gift” of an obvious dominance, leverage, convenience, edge, preference, and upper-hand in that race that reeks of dirty tricks.

One would need to be blind not see the sheer “EXTRA SUPPORT” relegated to those who possessed some sort of higher inherited or displayed speed which most likely would give the most favor to whoever grabbed that lead. Of course, which trainer had the one horse out of a field of nineteen who happened to get that lead? That would be the trainer who couldn’t depend on enhancing his horse with drugs, so where can he possibly go? Enhance the track. The top 4 who hit the superfecta - all comprised the lead 6 at the 1/4 pole. All of them had speed inheritance - except one - Medina Spirit - who was not built in the least to be a lead runner. But of course Baffert's clone gets the lead on a superficial overly enhanced preferred bias. It is so grossly apparent.


Stamina Fell to Bottom. These are the guys with 10f easily, Stamina Dominant

All five of these bottom tier colts carried major stamina and ALL FIVE disintegrated to the bottom. They found NO FOOTING on the surface. The bias played so against their breeding that the probability of this happening to each and every one of these horses is so ridiculous that it makes me want to close shop on this sport for life. There is no other explanation than the BIAS which played a major role in this year’s edition. The results are so crazily obvious that something so suspect and dubious had to have occurred with that surface. Nothing so backwards could ever and has never happened on a clean normal track going back the decades of this race. The only way that Medina Spirit wires the 10f field with his track record of dying down before 9f in every single race he has ever run is if the bias of the track allows for it. This bias trickled down from the top and affected every horse on the field in perfect synchronicity.

I talk about scripts all the time and this script is written out even more perfect than I have ever seen – Except that it is written through a mirror – completely backwards. All 5 of these horses below have inherited stamina dominance and also DISPLAYED stamina dominance. They found no footing and it offered them a total and clear prejudice. That track was manipulated to favor the lead and the speed of the field and in so doing, robbed the public of an even and fair race. It destroyed the logic of how horses are built and how their advantage was stripped. There is no other possible reasoning for this line-up below to fall so perfectly under those who lean on their speed without having the distance. It is so fake and so easy to see that I don’t even think I want to be part of it any more.

9th. 1.44 Known Agenda DP = 4-5-8-4-1 (22) DI = 1.44 CD = 0.32

Mare Profile = 10-3-0-6-13 Speed = 13 Stamina = 19 Index = 0.72 Triads = 13-9-19

Stamina Dominant

10. 1.67 Highly Motivated DP = 1-1-1-1-0 (4) DI = 1.67 CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 2-8-9-7-3 Speed = 10 Stamina = 10 Index = 0.95 Triads = 19-24-19

Stamina Dominant.

11. 1.55 Sainthood DP = 4-2-5-3-0 (14) DI = 1.55 CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 5-3-6-8-11 Speed = 8 Stamina = 19 Index = 0.53 Triads = 14-17-25

Stamina dominant.

12. 4.14 Like the King DP = 3-8-7-0-0 (18) DI = 4.14 CD = 0.78

Mare Profile = 7-4-0-7-11 Speed = 11 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.62 Triads = 11-11-18

Stamina dominant even with 4.14 index - turf.

13. 3.00 Bourbonic DP = 2-6-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.63

Mare Profile = 8-3-2-6-8 Speed = 11 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.88 Triads = 13-11-16

Stamina Dominant and style against bias.


These two guys had no shot from the beginning. Zero Class with their inherited speed against the classiest with their speed. However, there are still telling signs with the bias against them.

14. 3.67 Hidden Stash DP = 6-10-12-0-0 (28) DI = 3.67 CD = 0.79

Mare Profile = 7-8-1-8-7 Speed = 15 Stamina = 15 Index = 1.00 Triads = 16-17-16

This guy has that crazy Tapit stamina line which forces more stamina dominance. Bias dead set against it. Along with his rear-running style, this guy had no shot with those two strikes on this overly-intensified speed favored and lead favoring bias.

15. 3.00 Super Stock DP = 3-2-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.80

Mare Profile = 8-4-7-7-6 Speed = 12 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.04 Triads = 19-18-20

Where he found himself between the gate and the 1/4 pole - he was done.


These guys below represent the bottom 4. Three of them had their problems in the race BUT, there is still something quite telling as it pertains to the bias. All 4 of them had the 10f distance and all four of them had much more INHERITED stamina in them than speed. No matter what adversely happened to them during the race would have made no difference based on the cruel bias of the track. I believe that it was not just nature. I believe it was manipulated for that disgrace of a trainer. His horse gained the highest edge off of that bias on the entire field. His horse, who is not bred in the slightest to run on the lead, finds that spot and with great ease, he swims for the very first time without a skipping a beat at 10f. When I wrote that if Baffert wins this race he should be taken to the Winners Circle in handcuffs, I meant it. That was one enhanced bias which catered to this horse. The entire field (with the exception of the 11.00 indexed horse Mandaloun) had zero shot at a win in this race. ZERO. It all favored the lead of the race. With 19 on the field, 17 of them lost any advantage they would have had. If Medina Spirit didn’t catch that lead, he would have joined the third tier of horses. I believe that based on the history of this race and the race results that I am looking at in black and white.

16. Brooklyn Strong - Solidly Banged Gate DP = 3-4-4-1-0 (12) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 5-6-5-7-7 Speed = 11 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.81 Triads = 16-18-19

10f runner. Lost his shot at the opening of the gates.

17. Rock Your World - Lost Footing & Slammed steps out of Gate DP = 3-4-8-1-0 (16) DI = 2.20 CD = 0.56

Mare Profile = 2-3-4-7-8 Speed = 5 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.41 Triads = 9-14-19

This horse had the HIGHEST STAMINA INHERITANCE ON THE FIELD and he lost his footing on the very step out of that gate. The bias reared its ugly head on his first step on that track. Even if he was not slammed out of that gate, that horse had NO SHOT on that bias. It didn’t matter. He needed the lead with his inheritance on this severely enhanced bias and he was never going to get it. As the only colt on the field with complete and total supremacy in Stamina running in his veins, which that bias SAW TO IT, Rock Your World saw the highest disadvantage of his career in that gate. As severely geared to speed dominant colts as that track was, Rock Your World was lucky to get banged and forced to drop back. His Derby was squashed even before the gates opened. With his 12.9f capability this track was at complete odds and totally backwards for him. However that track was manipulated to force every 10f runner down to the bottom and geared to break every stamina horse on the field (a million to one) that bang he took 5 ft from the gate was a blessing in disguise.

18. Dynamic One - Banged from Rear DP = 6-6-11-1-0 (24) DI = 2.69 CD = 0.71

Mare Profile = 8-5-4-9-6 Speed = 13 Stamina = 15 Index = 1.00 Triads = 17-18-19

This guy took a severely horrible bang which knocked his chances out completely.

19. Soup and Sandwich - EASED DP = 2-6-6-0-0 (14) DI = 3.67 CD = 0.71

Mare Profile = 8-7-4-9-4 Speed = 15 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.29 Triads = 19-20-17

I have no idea what happened in the late stages of the race with Soup but the fact remains, he had Tapit stamina without the class. The bias could have played against that stamina, however, out of the entire field of 20 in this order of finish, he is the only one that we cannot judge the bias affects against. He was eased for a reason. We have no way of knowing where his balance truly falls with his particular set-up and unfortunately the opportunity to know has vanished. He is holding that 3.67 speed index which could have enhanced his speed favorably like the others or that Tapit stamina completely destroyed his chance like the rest of the stamina dominant guys. We just can’t possibly pinpoint the effects on him but as a gambler, I would bet a ton that the arrow points directly at his Tapit stamina.

I will be on sabbatical from this fake and manipulated sport until the Belmont.


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