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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

A Heads-Up on The Belmont Stakes



Back in 2017, twelve starters competed in the Belmont Stakes and Tapwrit took his trophy over Irish War Cry by 2 lengths. It has been 6 years since the "Tapit" influence became clear but now it is fairly known among horseplayers. If there is a son of Tapit entered into the Belmont Stakes now, he is sure to be bet down as far as it can go. We lost our upper-hand.


But what is not so widely known is "what type" of Tapit offspring thrives for a win and what else does it involve.


As we know, Tapit boys do not have an easy time in the Kentucky Derby but they thrive at Belmont Park because of the incredibly high amount of pure stamina inheritance, regardless of mares. But we also know, that Tapit advantage is undeniably connected to the 2.10 to 3.00 category, be it first or second generation. We also know that regardless of Tapit, that same category is highly advantaged when the colt is holding the goods from his mares as well. These things are not as well known but surely a huge factor for us.


Over the last 20 years at 12f:

A stamina horse (2.00 and under) - 3 winners - has a 15% win rate. (especially in the rain).

A speed horse (over 3.10) - 1 winner - has a 5% win rate.

An “average” horse (2.10 – 3.00) - 15 winners - has an 80% win rate.


Tapit offspring are no different. Those in the 2.10 to 3.00 category WIN. Those above 3.00 have grabbed their piece underneath.

The only Tapit boy who won the Belmont Stakes that was sporting an index over 3.00 (Tiz the Law with a 4.33) was back in 2020, the year that the race was run at only 9f because of the pandemic scheduling.


The Belmont Stakes is a BREEDING RACE. Fancy Beyers and Thorograph figures are meaningless. At 12f, those who thrive have several factors that give them advantage in this race for the WIN.


1) First or Second Generation Tapit at 3.00 and under.

2) 2.10 to 3.00 category with mare stamina that leans heavily on the scale.

3) Balanced breeding with balanced energy distribution.

4) Even paced.


Below is a premature list of the potential contenders with their dosage figures. Without Past Performance sheets, gate assignments, or weather conditions, there are three colts on this list who stand out with just their breeding alone.


The three stand-outs are NOT the favorites, they are not the ones who everyone is talking about, and they do not have the most exciting race record to date. In a nutshell, they do not hold lavish speedy short wins nor exceptionally fast workouts. These are things that a 12f runner WOULD NOT HOLD in the first place.


As far as the WIN is concerned, what they do have is the ability to run the 12f with exceptional ease. They have the 12f with the ability to sustain their energy at an even pace. Historically, they have a severe advantage in crossing the wire first. One of them has all of this PLUS the Tapit Factor - and it is not Tapit Trice.


As you begin your early handicapping, you should look deeply for the following:

  1. Ability to sustain an even pace

  2. Their style of running

  3. Proper energy distribution

  4. Location of workouts and are they moderate (average) or too fast for the bias.

  5. St. Simon Factor

Over the coming days, all eyes will be on the most likely favorites: Tapit Trice and Forte. Although both have the talent and their shot at the wire (especially Tapit Trice) - they are both extremely vulnerable for the win based on history and breeding. Over the next week, my advice would be to look into these three colts who may not be on everyone's radar, especially this early.


Hit Show, Prove Worthy and Reincarnate.


They are the three (so far) who are built correctly and the best suited for the 12f. This does not mean that these 3 will make up the Trifecta. It means that, historically, these three have the best set up breeding-wise and they are sitting quietly under the radar. The work now begins to see how they relate in terms of those listed points up above. Odds will not matter for the 12f Belmont which, in this year's case, is exceptionally nice if they pass the other criteria. Again, this is simply a heads-up. Out of the three, it is Hit Show who holds the most advantage of them all - breeding-wise.


If Tapit Shoes shows up with a gate, he would also be a major player to look into.


This also does not mean that any choice has been made at all this early and without even handicapping the race yet. They are the three colts who SHOULD be highly looked into even though they are not being touted out there as threats. The potential with their breeding makes them early threats in terms of their charts until all insight has been exhausted - good or bad.


In addition, the presence of Baffert with possibly three entries means that even more work and insight into the strategy will need to be done this year. Based on breeding, Reincarnate is the best built of his trio, but that doesn't mean his strategy won't go in a different way.


This is simply meant to be a heads-up prior to handicapping as to who is built very well for a win in the Belmont Stakes. I know you all would like the numbers in advance as well. There are also a couple of very easy tosses this year as well. See if you can spot them.


The full analysis will be posted once the field is settled and after much work is completed. It may turn out that one, two, or all three get tossed (highly doubtful) or it could mean that all three need to be on that superfecta. Please update the thread with any pertinent news as well.



ANGEL OF EMPIRE

DP = 4-4-2-0-0 (10) DI = 9.00 CD = 1.20

Mare Profile = 6-4-6-11-3 Speed = 10 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.96 Triads = 16-21-20


ARCANGELO

DP = 3-16-5-0-0 (24) DI = 8.60 CD = 0.92

Mare Profile = 6-7-4-9-5 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.00 Triads = 17-20-18


TAPIT TRICE

DP = 5-15-11-1-0 (32) DI = 3.92 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 10-6-1-7-7 Speed = 16 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.23 Triads = 17-14-15


SUN THUNDER

DP = 2-3-2-1-0 (8) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 5-9-6-7-4 Speed = 14 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.19 Triads = 20-22-17


FORTE

DP = 4-4-5-1-0 (14) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.79

Mare Profile = 11-2-5-1-11 Speed = 13 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.04 Triads = 18-8-17


TAPIT SHOES

DP = 4-11-12-1-0 (28) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.64

Mare Profile = 8-2-2-9-8 Speed = 10 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.74 Triads = 12-13-19


REINCARNATE

DP = 2-3-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.70

Mare Profile = 6-5-5-7-8 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.79 Triads = 16-17-20


ARABIAN LION

DP = 3-5-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.69

Mare Profile = 12-2-5-6-9 Speed = 14 Stamina = 15 Index = 1.07 Triads = 19-13-20


PROVE WORTHY

DP = 6-6-14-0-0 (26) DI = 2.71 CD = 0.69

Mare Profile = 10-2-1-7-10 Speed = 12 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.82 Triads = 13-10-18


HIT SHOW

DP = 2-5-6-1-0 (14) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.57

Mare Profile = 6-2-4-6-8 Speed = 8 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.69 Triads = 12-12-18


NATIONAL TREASURE

DP = 4-4-7-1-0 (16) DI = 2.56 CD = 0.69

Mare Profile = 8-7-3-3-9 Speed = 15 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.08 Triads = 18-13-15


RAISE CAIN

DP = 5-4-8-3-0 (20) DI = 1.86 CD = 0.55

Mare Profile = 9-2-5-4-7 Speed = 11 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.09 Triads = 16-11-16

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