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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

"A Big No" for the Kentucky Derby




There were two recent wins in the two-year-old division and the fanfare on social media has been relentless.


Two colts added to the "Horses to Watch Lists" for the Kentucky Derby by many sites out there.


"Watch" what happens to that hype as the Derby Prep season gets underway. It will vanish. Both horses will be scrubbed from those Watch Lists come Feb/March as if they never existed.


PRINCE OF MONACO

Speightstown - Rainier (Medaglia D'oro)

Trained by Bob Baffert


Prince of Monaco is undefeated in three races so far.


Maiden:

5f at Los Alamitos against 3 opponents. Yes, I did type 3 opponents!

He stalked Desormeaux's Malibu Rain with openings of 22:20 and 45.48 until that lead disintegrated.


Best Pal Stakes:

6f at DelMar against 4 opponents, one of which was another Baffert trainee. Yes, I did type 4 opponents!

Tranche, trained by Luis Mendez, lead the charge with openings of 21.76 and 44.76 until that lead disintegrated.


DelMar Futurity:

7f at DelMar against 5 opponents, one of which also trained by Baffert. Yes, I did type 5 opponents.

This time, Prince stalked his stablemate with openings of 22:18 and 44:75 until Mirahmadi let off the gas and was sacrificed in the stretch.


Prince of Monaco

DP = 6-7-8-1-0 (22) DI = 3.40 CD = 0.82 ANZ: 4.20

Mare Profile = 8-3-5-3-6 Speed = 11 Stamina = 9 Index = 1.20 Triads = 16-11-14

Rating for the Kentucky Derby: +

Rating for Board-Hit in the Breeder's Juvenile: ++++

Combined Inherited Optimum Distance: 8.8f


Fancy beyers and timeform figures out on the West Coast tracks will never get this horse across the wire in the 10f Derby. He is yet another over-hyped Baffert speed demon who has the ingredients to work the Santa Anita Breeders Cup Juvenile for board hit consideration.


Do not waste one dollar on a Derby Future's bet.


If there is an over the top 1/4 and 1/2 opening in the Juvenile, Prince will capitalize off of his race training and he will perform at the distance, but he is going absolutely nowhere in the 10f Kentucky Derby.


So far, Prince has capitalized at 5f to 7f on his perfect bias in distances that accentuate his breeding. Fancy performances and notching wins with track and distance advantages does not mean that this two-year-old has anything for 10f at Churchill Downs.


The hype for this Baffert speedster will not give him additional endurance, no matter how you slice and dice it. Unfortunately, Prince of Monaco is sitting in a very precarious spot.


The mare's profile, along with the extra speed in the ANZ index will keep this horse at high risk on the souped-up speedy tracks of California. The normal Baffert playbook of using rabbits to heighten his chances of more trips to the winner's circle as the distances grow will only enhance the probability of catastrophe.


This horse is bred to be a sprinter/miler and has no extra endurance. His advantage will be enhanced on the speedy tracks in California, and he will be pushed to his limit. Same story, different horse.


Baffert's best bet and best interest for the horse would see to it that he is kept on a path straight to the 2024 Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. That, my friends, is wishful thinking.


On the flip side, Baffert's second place finisher in the Futurity, Mirahmadi, the one who gained no spotlight exiting that race, has a much better advantage to the Derby than the speedster, regardless of how they land in the Juvenile.


Baffert's other trainee, Heartland, has the most advantage of them all.

 

NUTELLA FELLA

Runhappy - Krissy's Candy (Candy Ride)

Trained by Gary Contessa


Nutella Fella is undefeated in two races so far.


Maiden:

5.5f at Delaware Park with openings of 22.35 and 46.75 saw 2 speedsters burn out with the lead and Nutella capitalize at the short distance. Nutella sat in the perfect position, just behind, and rolled to the win.


Hopeful Stakes:

7f at Saratoga with openings of 22.19 and 44.89 which set it up for all speed to burn out up front. Nutella sat at the very back of the pack. This time, he broke bad, keeping him at the tail end of the field, and this gave him his opportunity to shine. Pure luck in a bad break, against his running style, and he had an extremely broken pace to run into.


The extraordinary hype over this horse is mind-boggling and quite frankly, I am sick of hearing his name. Nothing against the horse at all, but the entire spectacle is so easy to read. The hype is overtly astonishing.


Even with the breeding aside for now, does anyone not see the 44.89 at the half?? Can anyone in the media read a results chart?? Timberlake and Nutella Fella passed retreating lead and forward tier horses because of that 1/2-mile call. The longshot reserved every ounce of energy sitting at the very back of the pack. He and Timberlake saved ground and passed three perfectly stagnant horses, while the others on the field were retreating behind them.


Do not listen to the hype over a rear running two-year-old longshot who wins a 7f race with opening calls like that.

Do not waste one dollar on him in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile.

Not even a dime spot in a cheap super.

Do not back him in a Futures Bet for the Kentucky Derby because of his major distance limitations through his breeding.


Nutella Fella

DP = 2-7-1-0-0 (10) DI = 19.00 CD = 1.10 ANZ = 19.00

Mare Profile = 6-5-4-7-5 Speed = 11 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.00 Triads = 15-16-16

Rating For The Kentucky Derby: +

Rating For Board Hit in Breeder's Juvenile: ++

Combined Inherited Optimum Distance: 8.9f


Because of his win in the Hopeful Stakes, if Nutella takes a gate across the country on Nov 3, he will undoubtedly have single digit odds. The only chance that this horse has in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile is if the entire lead group beats each other up with "over the top" early fractions. Even then, the caliber of a few other potential contenders at that particular distance will absolutely annihilate him. Plus, he would need to either break bad again or purposefully held to the back, which is against his true style.


When Nutella broke well in his maiden at Delaware Park, he was tasked to run only 5.5f. He went to the front to stalk. With that 19.00 chef index, his advantage was through the roof. Perfectly set up for 5.5f but came in with an Equibase figure of only 76. That was what he was capable of when breaking correctly and running his race. That figure is highly sub-par for a 19.00 indexed horse.


When he was a recipient of luck from breaking bad in the Hopeful and relied on the fast early fractions of others, he was given an Equibase figure of 93. He was an opportunist whose figure was heightened by the fast pace of others. He was unknowingly put in a fortunate position of extreme pace dependence and was able to retrieve a trophy because of it.


His chefs index of 19.00 along with a mare index at 1.00 will see to it that he goes completely backwards in the Juvenile. The main giveaway is that this horse was extremely lucky to go off slow out of that gate, which put him (and Timberlake) in a "Rich Strike" position to capitalize off of the 44.89 half.


With a normal good break next time and content up with the front tier in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile, this horse will be travelling backwards before the far turn. He has no chance of competing up front with a Santa Anita pace.


Both Nutella Fella and Prince of Monaco are best suited at sprinting and the one-mile distances, especially with faltering lead speed. They both have absolutely no chance at 10f in the Kentucky Derby.


Prince of Monaco can compete at Santa Anita in the Juvenile at 8.5f because his speed figures were not dependent on others. His inbred speed is obviously shining through in a competitive way. He trains exclusively on the West Coast and is familiar with the surface. His speed figures are aligned with his style, and he has posted three consecutive high pace figures which shows perfect consistency.


Nutella Fella should remain a longshot bet for the Juvenile, but he won't because of the hype.


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