2026 Kentucky Derby - Analysis

Still recognizing the previous configurations prior to the new chefs being added because they were successfully used from the beginning of their two year old campaigns and it is impossible to switch at this late stage. It is very important to note that the new configurations not only change for this crop, but they change historically as well. It then becomes a completely different set of rules which, in the short time since the additions, these new and perfect rules have yet to be established.

Therefore, personally, I will not be using the new dosage figures given only 2 weeks to re-establish a "new history" and "new rules" and how they apply. It would be impossible to do so in such a short period of time, however, the few small consistencies that I have already pinpointed with the new configurations for the past 85 winners of the Kentucky Derby will be cross-checked with these entries as well.

LISTED FROM HIGHEST INBRED CHEF SPEED (using old numbers) to HIGHEST INBRED CHEF STAMINA.

Mares are taken into account separately.

Analysis may be updated after the Post Position draw.

This article may not be copied, reproduced, translated, or paraphrased, in whole or in part. 4/23/2026 LDM

SPEED: 3.10 and OVER

7.00 GREAT WHITE POST 20 M/L 41-1 Volatile John Ennis Alex Archard

old: DP = 1-2-1-0-0 (4) DI = 7.00 CD = 1.00 NEW: DP = 7-9-14-0-0 (30) DI = 3.29   CD = 0.77

Mare Profile = 10-3-5-2-8   Speed = 13   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.22   Triads = 18-10-15

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy $55,000

Equibase Rating: 82 Twinspires Odds: 50-1 RPR: 8.5f John Battaglia - 94 9f Blue Grass - 67

4/22 - Workout at The Thoroughbred Center - 4f 52.20 29/33

ANALYSIS: This right here really has every signal of a very bad idea for this horse. Understanding that it is a phenomenal opportunity to run a colt in the Kentucky Derby for his connections, it may not be such a hallmark for the horse himself. It is very nice that Great White gained 5 new listed chefs over the last month with big jumps in the Brilliant, Intermediate and Classic categories, he may not have really needed them in those first 2 slots. His mares unfortunately push him way over the speed edge on that scale. That set-up is wholly incorrect. Great White is actually making a much stronger case for So Happy sitting at the top of this list now with those mare numbers. Looking at his PPs, it would appear that either this fellow wasn't too fond of the Kentucky dirt or not too fond displaying early speed, which, based on his configurations, is strikingly off. Now the poor guy will be installed in Gate 20, on a 20 horse field, with a backwards mare scale, and who only lasted 3/4 of a mile on dirt. I feel sorry for this horse, but the good part is that he will not get bumped and bruised leaving that gate and mostly likely, he'll be done running and clocked out of work quite early on Saturday.

7.00 SO HAPPY POST 8 M/L 15-1 Runhappy Mark Glatt Mike Smith

old: DP = 1-2-1-0-0 (4) DI = 7.00 CD = 1.00 NEW: DP = 1-2-1-0-0 (4) DI = 7.00   CD = 1.00

Mare Profile = 5-6-5-8-5   Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.91   Triads = 16-19-18

St. Simon: 10.94% $150,000

Equibase Rating: 112 Twinspires Odds: 15-1 RPR: 8.5 San Felipe - 102 9f Santa Anita Derby - 111

4/17 - Workout at Santa Anita - 5f 59.60 1/44 BULLET ♥ (Follows inheritance)

4/24 - Workout at Churchill - 5f 1.00.20 8/19

ANALYSIS: The big question here is the distance limitations on a 20 horse field traveling 10f in Kentucky. His configurations, at face value, are just as good and well-suited as a few other of his speed-sided foes below him on this list, historically speaking. Bear with me on this as it is very relative when it comes to So Happy. Back in 2019, a colt by the name of Gray Magician came in second place in the 9.5f  UAE Derby. The son of Graydar was built very similarly with substantial and historically correct mare configurations. At the time, my analysis of the horse was that he was either going to win the race or he was coming in dead last with no in betweens. The latter prevailed. So, when I see 90+ to 100+ figures dotted throughout all of So Happy’s four past races from 6.5f to 9f, all at Santa Anita, it is telling me that his speed is the favorable side and that he appears better suited for the Preakness on a clear day. That bullet on 4/17 isn’t helping his case either. Unlike Gray Magician, he won’t be flying to and from Meydan, but he will be outside of his advantageous West Coast slick and faster backyard which caters to his inheritance. These configurations fancy a wet track to gain extra lengths or a shorter race at Pimlico with fewer entries to navigate around. The bottom line, his mares numbers are conducive, his chart is very nice and with everything laid out, I believe he is a definite "damned if you do and damned if you don't" type on a clean track. I think he is smokin' for a wet track, with his numbers right on point. I'm really not 100% confident enough to read him for a dry bias as far as a board hit shot, so I won't.

7.00   COMMANDMENT POST 6 M/L 6-1 Into Mischief Brad Cox Luis Saez

old: DP = 1-2-1-0-0 (4) DI = 7.00 CD = 1.00 NEW: DP = 9-2-9-0-0 (20) DI = 3.44   CD = 1.00

Mare Profile = 3-10-5-7-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.88   Triads = 18-22-18

St. Simon: 17.96% $500,000

Equibase Rating: 115 Twinspires Odds: 6-1 RPR: 8.5f Fountain of Youth - 107 9f Florida Derby - 114

4/10 - Workout at Churchill - 4f 48.40 14/44

4/17 - Workout at Churchill - 5f 59.60 3/20

4/25 - Workout at Churchill - 5f 1:01.40

ANALYSIS: When laid out on paper, Commandment follows suit with So Happy and Fulleffort with 7X the inherited speed over stamina from his (previous) set of chefs. His mare scale is balanced though and heftier as well. Out of all of the Into Mischiefs testing their luck in Kentucky, this guy is the only one that raises a few red flags as far as an outright win. In the Fountain of Youth, he managed to hold that killer energy of his, (92  108  94  103) - but he did drift severely down the stretch after. He comes back to the Florida Derby and this time he posts (66  75  121  100). He ran early in 6th position on a 6 horse field with 24.10  48.80  1:13.00  1:37.32, basically in sleep mode to the ¾ pole. He will not see anything close to those early beyers and fractional times in the Derby and will be subjected to closer to what he had in the FOY - an 8.5f race - to be competitive here. The fact remains; he drifted at 8.5f when trying to land at a heavier pace. Now he has 19 competitors as opposed to 5 which means if he doesn’t find a seam, he’s running way past 10f on May 2nd. The 121 late beyer figure in the Florida Derby is attainable again only if we put the race in slow motion and that is never going to happen. A player, yes, but too many red flags for a first choice. I do like the input from his stacked damsire Orb and that will keep him heavily represented within my super. Just like So Happy, major upgrade on a wet sealed rainy track.

4.60 THE PUMA POST 9 M/L 10-1 Essential Quality Gustavo Delgado Javier Castellano

old: DP = 2-7-5-0-0 (14) DI = 4.60 CD = 0.79 NEW: DP = 4-7-15-0-0 (26) DI = 2.47   CD = 0.58

Mare Profile = 9-4-5-5-7   Speed = 13   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.13   Triads = 18-14-17 (2nd gen Tapit)

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy $150,000

Equibase Rating: 91 Twinspires Odds: 10-1 RPR: 8.5f Tampa Bay Derby - 110 9f Florida Derby - 113

4/11 - Workout at Gulfstream - 4f 52.32 68/71

4/18 - Workout at Gulfstream - 5f 1:00.77 5/15

ANALYSIS: This guy's analysis goes hand in hand with Commandment’s, specifically with the Florida Derby - with fairly close stats that he will not be able to pull off in Kentucky (68  79  117  100) from a 6 horse field. So we go back to the 8.5f Tampa Bay Derby on the wet track against a sick Further Ado. There he posts 85  91  93  93. Realistically, that’s not setting the world on fire as it relates to a fair projection for 10f at Churchill. Additionally, he is another with no starts at two and while I don’t see that as a major deterrent, I fall short of expecting to see three of them hit the board. I believe that the probability of that happening is at 0%. With that in mind, pitting Potente, Emerging Market and The Puma together, my preference is to keep it in that exact order and only stick with the first two. I don’t think his stats are in their league at this point of his career. Between his configurations and the way he runs, he doesn’t have the feel of a 10f+ horse - he leans to speed based on the evidence. Therefore, if we get rain, the speedier configurations would be on his side and I would then take a shot with adding to the bottom of the super.

4.60 INTREPIDO POST 3 M/L 50-1 Maximus Mischief Jeff Mullins Hector Berrios

old: DP = 1-8-5-0-0 (14) DI = 4.60   CD = 0.71 New: DP = 6-6-10-0-0 (22) DI = 3.40   CD = 0.82

Mare Profile = 3-6-5-10-4   Speed = 9   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.74   Triads = 14-21-19

St. Simon: Affirmed → Sir Gallahad → Galopin $385,000

Equibase Rating: 114 Twinspires Odds: 50-1 RPR: 8f Robert B Lewis - 110 9f SA Derby - 88

4/19 - Workout at Santa Anita - 4f 47.20 2/97 (appears lead training)

→ 4/26 - Workout at Churchill - 4f 45.00 BULLET 1/71 ♥ OMG! Talk about explosion on Churchill Dirt!! 45 seconds!!

ANALYSIS: Never in the limelight, this horse has one of the better sets of configurations on the list (both new and old) but they were never truly advantageous for those West Coast tracks, especially against Baffert’s speed demons. The workout on 4/19 while still on the slicker surface at Santa Anita appears to be training for that lead or lead tier and fortunately for Intrepido, his build gives him heightened stamina against a few that will be up there as well. For the first time in his career, this horse will have a more conducive set of parameters as far as optimum distance and bias, however, his normal fight has been against only 5 to 7 foes as opposed to 19 which could be a bit much to overcome. Built very well though for the task at Churchill, (an Into Mischief boy with excessive stamina) and those who draw in late have often found severe luck in the Derby - at least this one does have the proper set-up historically. Does he finally explode outside of those West Coast tracks traveling further than those lucky speedsters he faced previously? He has a real shot.

AFTER THE DRAW: He'll be on the rail once Renegade and Albus hang back and most likely will sit back and track the eventual leads. He'll save a ton of ground but there is a possibility he gets swallowed up or trapped by the leads eventually giving in. He'll have excellent position if Hector rides him out of there before the retreat begins.

4.33 ALBUS POST 2 M/L 30-1 Yaupon Riley Mott Manny Franco

old: DP = 5-5-6-0-0 (16) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.94 NEW: DP = 6-10-12-0-0 (28) DI = 3.67   CD = 0.79

Mare Profile = 8-2-2-7-8   Speed = 10   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.80   Triads = 12-11-17

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy $320,000

Equibase Rating: 110 Twinspires Odds: 40-1 RPR: 1mi 40 Maiden - 104 9f Wood Memorial 105

4/18 - Workout at Churchill - 4f 49.00 35/65

4/26 - Workout at Churchill - 4f 49.00 44/71

ANALYSIS: Albus was at the right place at the right time sitting in 8th position while the three speedsters - Napoleon Solo, Iron Honor and Jimmy tried to get around that 9f track at Aqueduct in the Wood Memorial. Not one of those guys was built for that race so Albus basically won by default. It was certainly not the best edition of that race. Speed stats way under par, mares configurations way under par and old distance-challenged foes from one prep definitely under par. He’ll progress a bit at Churchill if he has a good clean run but he is way out of his league here.

AFTER THE DRAW: I don't think the draw matters either way for this guy. It simply helps Intrepido move to the rail much easier without getting bumped. He'll retreat back with Renegade where there is no match anyway.

4.00 DANON BOURBON POST 7 M/L 20-1 Maxfield Manabu Ikezoe Atsuya Nishimura

old: DP = 1-5-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 CD = 0.70 NEW: DP = 1-7-16-0-0 (24) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.38

Mare Profile = 7-6-2-8-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.00   Triads = 15-16-16 (2nd gen Tapit)

St. Simon: 25% $450,000

Equibase Rating: N/A Twinspires Odds: 50-1 RPR: 9f Fukuryu Stakes - 106

4/21 - Arrived in Chicago, will quarantine there for 42 hours.

4/28 - Light work at Churchill - 4f 54.60 - final 1/4 in 26.40

ANALYSIS: On the one hand, I’m getting Luxor Cafe vibes with those Mare’s numbers that were bypassed last year due to the lack of well-configured entries in 2025. That is certainly not the case this year. Looking at the old numbers, he hits the mark. With the new numbers, he does not and that revolves around the mare’s numbers. That’s a predicament that I don’t like. The horse has done nothing wrong in his 3 undefeated races, however, the new track record in the Fukuryu was definitely handed to him by Don Erectus, credit where credit is due. The fact that he won his 9f maiden as a 2 year old by 10 lengths in the rain with a 16 horse field is outrageously good as compared to our guys and that experience works very well. He then comes back and slams his 9.5f allowance and the 9f Derby prep. How do you overlook that? The only knock is that he will arrive fairly late to Churchill but with an American pedigree, he should acclimate well. Additionally, his St. Simon factor is smokin'. Never one to bypass an overseas runner with stats like that, so he will make an appearance on my superfectas - and even more heavily in the rain. I’m too superstitious to bypass.

AFTER THE DRAW: He couldn't have drawn any better.

4.00 OCELLI POST 21 M/L 50-1 Connect W. Beckman Joseph Ramos

old: 3-3-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 CD = 0.90 New: DP = 3-7-18-2-0 (30) DI = 1.73   CD = 0.37

Mare Profile = 11-2-2-9-7   Speed = 13   Stamina = 16   Index = 1.04   Triads = 15-13-18

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy $12,000

Equibase Rating: 91 Twinspires Odds: 50-1 RPR: 9f Wood Memorial - 100

4/18 - Workout at Churchill - 4f 47.60 10/65

4/24 - Workout at Churchill - 4f 47.60 15/92

ANALYSIS - Major upgrade with new chefs recognized completely changes this guy's entire complexion and now the PPs start to make sense. He did not do well at the 8.5f and under races, unable to even break his maiden. With the 4.00 old index that made him look completely sub-par. With the new numbers, it is understandable now. It appears that this guys "real" and updated chef configurations says he wants much more distance but he is not going to be quick about it. His mare numbers are tolerable, not in the league of many others here but still compatible with what he is holding now. The post position will allow him to take his time, unbothered and most likely sitting out wide for a bit, but Ocelli is in no rush to start competing anyway. The wierd part is the speedier works he put in over the last couple weeks. Very strange. He may actually upgrade at this distance but I see no chance of breaking his maiden in the Kentucky Derby.

3.80   ROBUSTA POST 20 M/L 50-1 Accelerate Doug O'Neill Christian Torres

old: DP = 1-6-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80   CD = 0.67 NEW: DP = 5-6-9-0-0 (20) DI = 3.44   CD = 0.80

Mare Profile = 7-3-3-11-6   Speed = 10   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.77   Triads = 13-17-20

St. Simon: 11.33% Calumet bred and owned.

Equibase Rating: 91 Twinspires Odds: 50-1 RPR: 8.5f San Felipe - 107 9f SA Derby - 75

4/19 - Workout at Santa Anita - 6f 1:16.00 2/2

4/26 - Workout at Churchill - 5f 1:03.60 23/23

Analysis: This is one that we didn't need coming to the party. Second Generation Into Mischief on the bottom of his chart with fantastic mare stamina-dominant configurations sitting below speed on top. Breeding-wise, he hits the mark historically. But it is not enough and it is not simply because he faded horribly in the 9f Santa Anita Derby trying to keep up with a beast. Realistically, the horse faded in the 8.5f San Felipe (even though he grabbed second there, he still faded late). He faded in the 8f Robert B Lewis. He faded in his first maiden attempt going 6.5f at DelMar. He held strong for one race in his career so far, an 8f maiden back in January. My guess is that this horse favors his mares a great deal - he has a huge 7 point spread leaning to the stamina side knocking that scale way over - and it doesn't appear that he should be running like a sprinter up on the lead tier. It's counterintuitive. It's pretty much written out in Black and White on his PPs. Last 2 workouts were very slow and out of the norm from his long list of past works - either just maintenance (probably) or they are trying to get him to relax early and spread his energy. I think it's a bit late for that but it sure would be in his favor to try. It would follow much closer to how he is built. This is why he faltered so badly in the SA Derby, he's not built for that style on that bias and it simply drains stamina. I suspect it will continue again in Kentucky. I respect his trainer but I don't like the running style and the poor energy distribution of this horse.

3.57 CHIEF WALLABEE POST 12 M/L 8-1 Constitution Bill Mott Junior Alvarado

old: DP = 3-7-5-1-0 (16) DI = 3.57   CD = 0.75 NEW: DP = 3-10-24-1-0 (38) DI = 1.92   CD = 0.39

Mares = 7-8-3-4-6   Speed = 15   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.32   Triads = 18-15-13 (2nd gen Tapit)

St. Simon: Distorted Humor → Polymelus not sold via auction, breeder retains

Equibase Rating: 112 Twinspires Odds: 10-1 RPR: 8.5f Fountain of Youth - 105 9f Florida Derby - 112

4/20 - Workout at Churchill - 5f 1:00.00 2/11 ♥

4/26 - Workout at Churchill - 4f 49.20 50/71

ANALYSIS: This is a very stacked field and you just can’t use them all, so the only thing you can do is nit-pick everything to break it down to a more manageable superfecta using common sense. He is another who didn’t run at two. How many can you realistically rely on to hit those four spots? How many Tapits can you back in the Kentucky Derby when they rarely make a dent? With the addition of those new chefs, the mares' numbers are pitiful against them. Finally, the Florida Derby - for lack of a better word - was just weird. The only saving grace as far as his configurations go is that he jumps to 38 total chef points which are very advantageous historically. With the negatives aside, I do like his progression very much. Being a second generation Tapit and having The Puma, Damon, Silent Tactic and the Chief, do you roll the dice with one and if so, what separates them to make a confident choice? It is hard enough to get a Tapit boy to excel in the Derby, let alone 3 or 4 and up against the caliber of colts entered this year. For now, I will wait to see the draw - knowing damn well straight that I have to use Danon regardless - which means it will be maybe one more to get a slight nod - because it won't be all that's for sure. I'll update after the draw...

AFTER THE DRAW: Well, the draw has come and gone and a definite choice has been made. Sticking with two Tapit offspring for the super - which will include Danon and the Chief. Love his draw, but more importantly, moving away from the Florida Derby and jumping back to his Fountain of Youth performance which, to me, outshine The Puma's earlier preps. The fact that Fulleffort drew Post 20 and the horrific post drawn by Emerging Market, forces the hand to grab one more, just in case. For me, that extra guy will be Chief Wallabee. Old numbers are correct and his workouts have been exceptional at Churchill - plus he has Mott.

 3.33 INCREDIBOLT POST 11 M/L 20-1 Bolt d'Oro Riley Mott Jaime Torres

old: DP = 5-10-10-1-0 (25) DI = 3.33 CD = 0.73 NEW: DP = 5-10-18-1-0 (34) DI = 2.40   CD = 0.56

Mare Profile = 11-3-3-5-11   Speed = 14   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.93   Triads = 17-11-19

St. Simon: 31.25% $75,000

Equibase Rating: 91 Twinspires Odds: 25-1 RPR: 8.5f Street Sense - 97 9f Virginia Derby - 111

4/11 - Workout at Palm Meadows - 4f 47.90 6/70

4/18 - Workout at Palm Meadows - 4f 49.95 34/47

4/26 - Workout at Churchill - 4f 47.00 2/71 - very fast

ANALYSIS: The 10f is definitely there, the mares’ numbers are tolerable, the 2 year old stats are very good, and the St. Simon factor is excellent - but the Virginia Derby as a claim to fame falls very short with this crew. There is always a 50-50 horse that enters the Derby every year and Incredibolt fits the bill perfectly. He’s been crowned “The damned if you do and damned if you don’t” colt of 2026 in my book. (I would even throw So Happy in that category as well). I truly don’t think this is his race and he would really need to up his game dramatically to make a dent. Possibly would revisit him if we get rain.

3.33 GOLDEN TEMPO POST 19 M/L 30-1 Curlin Cherie DeVaux Jose Ortiz

old: DP = 7-8-10-1-0-0 (26) DI = 3.33 CD = 0.81 New: DP = 7-8-28-1-0 (44) DI = 1.93   CD = 0.48

Mare Profile = 6-4-4-5-10   Speed = 10   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.69   Triads = 14-13-19

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy not sold via auction, breeder retains

Equibase Rating: 91 Twinspires Odds: 30-1 RPR: 9f Risen Star - 96 9.5f LA Derby - 104

4/3 - Workout at Keeneland - 4f 48.40 22/51

4/10 - Workout at Keeneland - 5f 1:00.80 3/20 ♥

4/17 - Workout at Keeneland - 4f 47.00 2/58 ♥

4/24 - Workout at Keeneland - 4f 47.40 2/93 ♥

ANALYSIS: He made quite a dramatic jump from his Risen Star performance to his Louisiana Derby race. It was a very commendable and visually attractive effort which pointed to a possible player moving to the 10f. It was such a big jump that now that the dust has settled, it could actually be a prelude to a bounce. He hasn’t gotten the job done after 8.5f and that 47.00 workout at Keeneland on 4/17 is so out of character for a deep closer that the red flags have been raised. Are they risking changing up his style in the biggest race of his career? I was high on him after his last race, but I’ve softened quite a bit after digging deeper. Is he a candidate for a 4th place nod? Possibly, I could still throw him in there but I see better. I put him in the same 2nd tier with The Puma and Chief Wallabee. The three of them basically the same horse with the same pros and cons. Do you take a stand or do you take a dart?? Quick works with this guy but 44 points in those new configurations are very tempting. The post position draw will probably aid the dilemma after Saturday. --- After post position draw, dilemma solved. Chief Wallabee is the one.

AFTER THE DRAW: He'll be running much further than 10.1f, thats for sure. What he does have though with this position is close to 100% assurance that he stays completely unscathed for his wide trip and that is a much better proposition than being taken out of the race after the first 10 seconds from the bell. He'll be hung very wide though and based on his very speedy works, those two concepts may be at odds.

LOWER SPEED: 3.00 EXACT

3.00 LITMUS TEST M/L 30-1 Nyquist Bob Baffert Martin Garcia

old: DP = 4-4-5-1-0 (14) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.79 New: DP = 5-9-9-1-0 (24) DI = 3.36   CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 7-1-7-4-7   Speed = 8   Stamina = 11   Index = 0.88   Triads = 15-12-18

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy $875,000

Equibase Rating: 116 Twinspires Odds: 30-1 RPR: 8.5f Los Alamitos - 110 8.5f Rebel - 92 9f Arkansas Derby- 86

4/23 - Workout at Churchill Downs - 5f 59.00 2/10

Analysis: Litmus Test draws in late with the defection of Chip Honcho. Low rated Derby horse from the very beginning here at the DHC and just looking at the downward spiral of those Racing Post figures from 8.5f on the West Coast to the 9f away from his backyard, the early assessment appears spot on. Post position draw for this guy and his ability to get up on the lead will be extremely important in terms of his stable-mate Potente, but that will also inevitably aid a handful of those closers as well. With better positioning though and the built-in stamina that he holds, raw advantage does exceed for Potente - but - it also aids Further Ado as well. It then becomes a test between Prat and Hernandez in their ability to find a nice pocket and a safe trip around that track. Baffert just gained a very nice lucky charm and with the addition of this barn-mate, Potente just became a bit more lethal than he already was. It all boils down to the gate that Litmus Test draws as to whether or not that little bit of extra advantage remains.

AFTER THE DRAW:  Baffert has got to be thrilled with this post and if Litmus Test breaks and moves quickly, this sets up a nice play to aid Potente (and a couple others sitting idly by) waiting to pounce after the retreat. Better to be sitting outside of it then directly behind it which bodes well for both Potente and Further Ado who drew outside and shouldn't find late position near the rail. (Remember how Fierceness got locked in behind retreating lead speed in the Classic)

3.00   EMERGING MARKET M/L 15-1 Candy Ride Chad Brown Flavien Prat

old: DP = 4-4-5-1-0 (14) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.79 NEW: DP = 12-4-17-5-0 (38) DI = 1.81   CD = 0.61

Mare Profile = 1-4-6-7-8   Speed = 5   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.41   Triads = 11-17-21

St. Simon: Fappiano → Teddy $185,000

Equibase Rating: 111 Twinspires Odds: 20-1 RPR: 8f Maiden - 94 9.5f Louisiana Derby - 106

4/4 - Workout at Payson - 4f 50.80 53/61

4/12 - Workout at Payson - 4f 49.40 4/39

4/18 - Workout at Payson - 4f 48.40 1/47 BULLET ♥ This guy is spectacular.

4/24 - 1st Work at Churchill - 4f 47.60 15/92 ♥ Looked easy.

ANALYSIS:  This guy's mares’ numbers are killer. They really are and the speed that he throws out there in spite of all of that inbred stamina (the highest on the field through the mares) is truly exceptional. His new chef numbers are spectacular as well, stacked across and holding those 5 very rare points in the Solid slot. Both sets are wildly exceptional. Usually, Candy Ride offspring rise severely after the Triple Crown unless the name Shared Belief is attached and usually an unraced two year old with only two races under his belt would be a HUGE red flag but not with this guy. Class from day one. Crowned the 2026 “leader of will and determination” which is very under-rated but points out eventual Champions. There wouldn’t be a chance of dismissing this guy even though I do believe that we will see a true superstar with this one closer to the Summertime. Also, he could find a big disadvantage come his way if it does in fact rain... Even as a lightly raced colt, I still think this guy is a major player across the board because what he has accomplished in one maiden and one Grade II race makes plenty others on this field look like Allowance runners. He is in a league all his own. This guy ran a bullet over 47 others with his configurations. That is a serious standout and deserves a ton of respect come May 2nd. I’m banking on EMERGING MARKET and FLAVIEN PRAT with those beautiful double digit odds and gorgeous configurations. I see no regression here, just progression for his 3rd race. The more I work on this race, the more convinced I get that this horse has every tool to win this race convincingly.

AFTER THE DRAW: Unfortunately, I think his post position is awful with Six Speed and Pavlovian to his right. After the interview with Seemar who trains Six Speed, I hate it even more. He could be right in the line of fire. Thankfully, he has Prat to navigate him out of there and away from trouble. They better not slam into Emerging Market trying to get up to their hopeless lead from Gate 17. The entire scenario puts both Emerging Market and Prat in danger, therefore I think Gate 15 was the worst possible draw for the lightly raced colt.

3.00   RENEGADE M/L 4-1 Into Mischief Todd Pletcher Irad Ortiz

old: DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.63 NEW: DP = 9-3-20-0-0 (32) DI = 2.20   CD = 0.66

Mare Profile = 5-9-4-9-5   Speed = 14   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.00   Triads = 18-22-18

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy $975,000

Equibase Rating: 115 Twinspires Odds: 9-2 RPR: 8.5f Sam F Davis - 106 9f Arkansas Derby - 114

4/16 - Workout at Palm Beach - 4f 48.87 3/10

4/23 - Workout at Palm Beach - 4f 50.94 9/11

ANALYSIS:  What else is there to say about this horse that hasn’t already been said or witnessed. He’s stacked for the Derby, from Day One, and as soon as he quit Aqueduct, he took off like a rocket. That said, I do not think he is all alone on this field as far as talent and at the odds he will no doubt be come post-time, I would not put all my coins solely into his winning barrel. He definitely still has very strong competition sitting with him in that gate. His progression from his 2 year old campaign did rise but it also plateaued so to speak. He would need to kick it up several notches to collect those roses. Can he do it? Of course he can, but there are at least 4 others who hit just as strong, if not stronger in that progression. He’ll be used extensively across the board but I’ll be much more interested in a couple others beating him to that wire.

AFTER THE DRAW: His post definitely hinders a horse with his running style on a 20 horse field. At the very least though, he will save ground early, drop far back retaining as much energy as possible just waiting for the retreat up front to begin. At some point, Albus (post 2) Intrepido (post 3) and/or Litmus Test (Post 4) will be left to hang dry along the rail - Renegade may need to measure the outside and this will eat into his time.

MID-RANGE: 2.00 to 2.99

2.43 POTENTE M/L 20-1 Into Mischief Bob Baffert Juan Hernandez

old: DP = 1-4-7-0-0 (12) DI = 2.43 CD = 0.50 NEW: DP = 9-4-15-0-0 (28) DI = 2.73   CD = 0.79

Mare Profile = 3-10-5-11-3   Speed = 13   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.95   Triads = 18-26-19

St. Simon: Hail to Reason → Plucky Liege $2,400,000

Equibase Rating: 112 Twinspires Odds: 15-1 RPR: 8.5f San Felipe - 107 9f Santa Anita Derby - 103

4/14 - Workout at Santa Anita - 4f 48.60 25/35

4/20 - Workout at Santa Anita - 6f 1:13.20 1/3 Bullet ♥ (Very Nice - not too fast to suggest Lead Training)

4/26 - Workout at Churchill Downs - 5f 57.80 1/23 Bullet ♥ 6f in 1:10.71

ANALYSIS: There is no two ways about it, Baffert’s horse is dangerous and lethal. This 2.4 million dollar horse is built absolutely perfect for this race using both the old numbers and the new numbers. Baffert always has his horses ready for the show and it will be no different this time. Do not let the Santa Anita Derby loss cloud your judgement - he was not 100% suited for that race. We have already discussed the forward progression of horses that did not claim victory at 9f at Santa Anita and then came to Louisville and slammed the 10f with either a win or a board-hit. Advantages switch. The configurations are there in spades, the better odds from the SA Derby loss are there, and this guy is as lethal as they come for this race. He is sitting all alone in this mid-range category (from old configurations) - he runs up front - he sustains wicked speed and he is built for the East Coast - not the West Coast. He was still competitive against the grain which is what you need to see with a mid-range category horse. He is a huge WIN player for this race, rain or shine as long as Hernandez keeps him safe straight from the gate.

AFTER THE DRAW: His barn mate drew perfectly for him, now the worry becomes Six Speed who drew to his outside with Emerging Market in the center of them. My hope is that Potente breaks well and shuts Six Speed out and leaves him hung wide. That angle that Six Speed (and Pavlovian) is forced to take out of the gate leaves plenty in their path. Potente has to break better and get forward faster - out of the line of fire.

STAMINA: Under 2.00

1.93 SIX SPEED M/L 50-1 Not This Time Bhupat Seemar Brian Hernandez

old: DP = 4-4-13-1-0 (22) DI = 1.93   CD = 0.50 NEW: DP = 4-4-21-1-0 (30) DI = 1.61   CD = 0.37

Mare Profile = 8-8-3-5-7   Speed = 16   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.23   Triads = 19-16-15

St. Simon: 18% $304,680

Equibase Rating: N/A Twinspires Odds: 40-1 RPR: 9.5f UAE Derby - 107

4/22 - Arrived at Churchill Downs

★ 4/26 - Trainer Seemar states: "If they go fast (on the lead) then we'll go faster." Keep in mind, this is the same trainer who had Summer is Tomorrow, the speed demon on the lead in the 2022 Derby who rolled off 21.78 45.36 to the half and then gave in and was subsequently eased to last. Summer had gate 4 which aided for his quest to lead. Summer is Tomorrow never ran again after that race and passed away in August of 2023.

4/27 - Workout at Churchill - 4f 48.80 5f 1:01.60 6f 1:15.40

ANALYSIS:  I’m getting shades of Summer is Tomorrow from 2020 who will push for that lead like a speed demon on fire. Between Not This Time handing off additional speed and those backwards mare configurations across the board, everything is pointing to a complete toss. He would probably gain additional lengths if we get a Type Two wet rainy track but it would most likely force him to an even faster pace, leaving it a wash.

AFTER THE DRAW: Now coming out of Post 17, the big worry is not with this horse taking it gate to wire, it is more about the havoc he may sow to the horses on his left trying to get up to that spot. I don't trust it at all. I want this horse left in the dust out from the gate because the mindset of the connections from Post 17 is just freakin dangerous to the participants surrounding him. I really dont like anything about this at all.

1.86 FURTHER ADO M/L 6-1 Gun Runner Brad Cox John Velazquez

old: DP = 0-3-7-0-0 (10) DI = 1.86 CD = 0.30 NEW: DP = 4-3-13-0-0 (20) DI = 2.08   CD = 0.55

Mare Profile = 7-2-5-8-6   Speed = 9   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.84   Triads = 14-15-19

St. Simon: 27.54% $550,000

Equibase Rating: 113 Twinspires Odds: 5-1 RPR: 8.5f Tampa Bay Derby - 108 9f Blue Grass Stakes - 117

4/17 - Workout at Churchill - 4f 48.60 23/61

4/25 - Workout at Churchill - 5f 1:00.00 12/41 ♥

ANALYSIS:  The gorgeous workout from April 17th does not appear to be a horse looking to regress, nor does he look like he is still with a lingering sickness. As a matter of fact, to me, he resembles Code of Honor a great deal. Same powerful workout prior to the Derby, same look. Coincidentally, Johnny V guided Code of Honor to a second place in 2019. I have to believe that those who are stating a regression for this guy (especially those who use Thorograph Numbers) have no clue that Further Ado was sick and recouping at the farm in between the KJC and the Tampa Bay race, and he was not 100% when Brad ran him there. What I see is a stamina-dominant horse who beat his speedy competitors by a combined 31 lengths in the two races when he was 100% fit. Now, does that guarantee he is 100% for the Kentucky Derby? Most likely, yes, and there are 19 others who we also have no assurance of that either. Based on the old numbers, his scale is perfect. Based on the new numbers, he sits within the higher echelon historically. The St. Simon factor is beautiful. The 10f+ is spot on. Based on the past performances when he was 100% - none come close. Further Ado is the star of the show if he truly is 100% fit and Johnny V keeps him safe and untouched for 2 straight minutes.

AFTER THE DRAW: He'll be wide for awhile until Johnny finds his spot but his safety outside of the mad rush out of the gate is much more important. He'll be fine traveling closer to 10.2 - 10.3f with his breeding.

1.29 PAVLOVIAN M/L 30-1 Pavel Doug O'Neill Edwin Maldonado

old: DP = 1-1-5-1-0 (8) DI = 1.29 CD = 0.25 NEW: DP = 1-1-5-1-0 (8) DI = 1.29   CD = 0.25

Mare Profile = 11-2-5-4-4   Speed = 13   Stamina = 8   Index = 1.71   Triads = 18-11-13

St. Simon: 18.75% not sold via auction, breeder retains

Equibase Rating: 82 Twinspires Odds: 40-1 RPR: 8.5f Sunland Derby - 106 9.5f LA Derby - 106

4/5 - Workout at Santa Anita - 4f 49.00 45/81

4/19 - Workout at Santa Anita - 6f 1:15.00 1/2

4/26 - Workout at Churchill - 5f 1:03.40 20/23

ANALYSIS: Extremely commendable 9.5f attempt at a gate to wire score in the La Derby and based on that low CD of 0.25, it seems a plausible correlation. The problem in Kentucky at 10f+ is that entire mare line. It is completely incorrect straight across. One would have to guess that he has accepted none of it and only adheres to the males in his chart. Highly unlikely. His better performances link to a more forward running style and his best came on the East Coast which bodes in his favor. The problem outside of the incorrect mare numbers is the big jump up that he took in his last. He would need yet another huge jump up for Louisville and it may have already come and gone. I think he's suited better for the Preakness.

AFTER THE DRAW: Sitting with Six Speed in those far outside gates does not bode well for those to their inside out of the gate. I hope they both get hung on the outside and retreat. I mean that.

1.00 WONDER DEAN M/L 30-1 Dee Majesty D. Takayanagi Ryusei Sakai old: DP = 1-0-4-1-0 (6) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.17 NEW: DP = 1-0-4-1-0 (6) DI = 1.00   CD = 0.17

Mare Profile = 5-4-5-8-7   Speed = 9   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.70   Triads = 14-17-20

St. Simon: 9.38% not sold via auction, breeder retains

Equibase Rating: N/A Twinspires Odds: 25-1 RPR: 8f Saudi Derby - 103 9.5f UAE Derby - 112

4/1 - Arrived at Churchill Downs

4/16 - Jogged in the chute, then went a mile on the main track. Schooled in the starting gate.

4/24 - Galloped 6f in 1:17, quickened to 23.40 for final 1/4. - slow maintenance.

4/28 - Light maintenance work - 4f 54.60 - final 1/4 in 26.40

ANALYSIS:  Wonder Dean secures a more forward position outside of the lead speed tier and just like those who are easy to spot when they sustain their high endurance level while still producing outward speed is the type that excels in the Kentucky Derby. A stand-out with breeding and perfect configurations along with the ability to produce competitive speed without compromising energy. Wonder Dean is holding the highest inbred chef stamina on the field (Emerging Market - the highest inbred stamina from the mares) and he does not run from the rear. This points to a live horse who will have a better position at the top of the stretch with the same amount of energy that he began with out of the gate. With an unscathed early burst from the gate, Sakai has successfully ridden this rodeo before and if Wonder Dean continues his forward progression, he sits with the best of them down the stretch. Outside of Type Two rain, I believe this is Japan’s star of the show. His odds demand a spot in the superfecta on a clean clear track (or extremely deep and yielding mud). In addition, this exact placement on the list - the highest in inbred chef stamina - has been a very advantageous and lucky spot for a board hit late. Dean will not stop running if he gets a clean safe trip and every faith that Forever Young's jockey, Mr. Sakai, knows exactly how to ride him to the wire. I think he is a must for any super bet on a nice clean track.

AFTER THE DRAW: This horse couldn't have drawn any better for his style. If he gets through those first crucial 5 to 10 seconds after the bell, he's in a great position to capitalize. His connections looked thrilled after hearing that gate announced.

If Further Ado doesn’t blow by them by 10 lengths down the stretch, I see a match race between him and Potente/Emerging Market charging for the wire - with Renegade and Commandment coming on late trying to run them down. I don't think it's necessary to run around in circles this year.

The cream of the crop made their emphatic statements very early in the game this season and barring bad trips, I'll be sticking with the same Five horses from months ago, with no deviation, throwing in a great colt from Japan, Wonder Dean. I'll add Golden Tempo and the Tapit Trio into the lower spots. I'm not even sure if post positions would change it - but the weather would.

In the event of rain with a sloppy track, a couple of those stamina colts would be switched out with more emphasis on the speedier colts including Commandment, Danon Bourbon, The Puma, So Happy and maybe Golden Tempo. I would still keep Potente and Further Ado and try to formulate a superfecta from there. Always remember, advantages switch when biases turn.