2026 Kentucky Derby - Futures Pool Four Ratings
- 21 hours ago
- 12 min read
Future Pool FOUR - February 13th through February 15th
Ratings pertain strictly to the 10f Kentucky Derby and have no bearing on future Derby Preps. Ratings at 1 heart to the highest at 5 hearts depicting suitability for Board Hit Consideration (superfecta placement) on a Churchill Downs May Track at 10f and assumes a healthy horse from now through to Derby Post Time. It also considers the minimal past performances to date as it aligns with their configurations. (The presence of Tapit is also taken into consideration against the mare configurations.)
BLACKOUT TIME K McPeek Not This Time
Pool 1 Final Odds: 20-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
Pool 3 Final Odds: 43-1 DHC Rating: ????
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 40-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
DP = 2-2-15-2-1 (22) DI = 1.10 Â CD = 0.09 ANZ = 1.48
Mare Profile = 6-11-2-8-6 Â Speed = 17 Â Stamina = 14 Â Index = 1.14 Â Triads = 19-21-16
Finally back on the worktab. 2/11 Posted a bullet at Oaklawn, 5f in a minute flat. Mares line a bit off.
BOYD B Baffert Violence
Pool 1 Final Odds: 39-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥
Pool 3 Final Odds: 34-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 40-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥
DP = 3-5-5-1-0 (14) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.71 ANZ = 2.64
Mare Profile = 8-4-2-8-6 Â Speed = 12 Â Stamina = 14 Â Index = 1.00 Â Triads = 14-14-16
Historically, completely off.
BRANT B Baffert Gun Runner
Pool 1 Final Odds: 14-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ +
Pool 3 Final Odds: 23-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ +
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 20-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ +
DP = 1-5-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 Â CD = 0.70 ANZ = 6.00
Mare Profile = 5-6-4-7-6 Â Speed = 11 Â Stamina = 13 Â Index = 0.87 Â Triads = 15-17-17
Mares slightly off under the 4.00 index.
BRAVARO S Joseph Upstart
Pool 1 N/A
Pool 3 N/A
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 80-1 DHC Rating: ♥
DP = 2-4-6-0-0 (12) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.67 ANZ = 3.00
Mare Profile = 11-3-0-4-10 Â Speed = 14 Â Stamina = 14 Â Index = 1.04 Â Triads = 14-7-14
Not even close.
CANALETTO C Brown Into Mischief
Pool 1 N/A
Pool 3 N/A
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 40-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ +
DP = 2-6-3-1-0 (12) DI = 3.80 Â CD = 0.75 ANZ = 4.60
Mare Profile = 3-9-5-10-3 Â Speed = 12 Â Stamina = 13 Â Index = 0.95 Â Triads = 17-24-18
Distorted Humor factor slices into confidence even with Into Mischief. Need more evidence.
CARSON STREET B Walsh Street Sense
Pool 1 N/A
Pool 3 N/A
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 75-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥
DP = 3-1-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.88 ANZ = 2.00
Mare Profile = 3-8-3-13-5 Â Speed = 11 Â Stamina = 18 Â Index = 0.65 Â Triads = 14-24-21
12f Belmont Stakes Configurations. 10f easily, now needs to present speed side to be competitive in the Derby.
CHIEF WALLABEE W Mott Constitution
Pool 1 N/A
Pool 3 N/A
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 75-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ +
DP = 3-7-5-1-0 (16) DI = 3.57 Â CD = 0.75 ANZ = 3.57
Mare Profile = 7-8-3-4-6 Â Speed = 15 Â Stamina = 10 Â Index = 1.32 Â Triads = 18-15-13 (2nd gen Tapit)
Hits the mark with Tapit in 2nd generation at 3.57. Board Hit Numbers.
CHIP HONCHO S Asmussen Connect
Pool 1 N/A
Pool 3 Final Odds: 82-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ +
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 90-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ +
DP = 1-2-6-3-0 (12) DI = 1.00 Â CD = 0.08 ANZ = 1.00
Mare Profile = 6-6-2-10-7 Â Speed = 12 Â Stamina = 17 Â Index = 0.77 Â Triads = 14-18-19
Major Stamina Inheritance. 10f blindfolded. Speed Side not displayed yet. No change.
CLASS PRESIDENT T Pletcher Uncle Mo
Pool 1 N/A
Pool 3 Final Odds: 50-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ +
Pool 4 Opening odds: 90-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ +
DP = 0-2-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.50 ANZ = 5.00
Mare Profile = 9-2-6-6-7 Â Speed = 11 Â Stamina = 13 Â Index = 1.00 Â Triads = 17-14-19
Not bad, not good, but distance is there. No need to force the issue at this juncture.
→ COMMANDMENT B Cox Into Mischief
Pool 1 N/A
Pool 3 Final Odds: 23-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ +
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 25-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ +
DP = 1-2-1-0-0 (4) DI = 7.00 Â CD = 1.00 ANZ = 11.00
Mare Profile = 3-10-5-7-6 Â Speed = 13 Â Stamina = 13 Â Index = 0.88 Â Triads = 18-22-18
Very nice all the way around. Style, energy and configurations are all on target.
COURTING T Pletcher Curlin
Pool 1 N/A
Pool 3 N/A
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 90-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ +
DP = 8-10-10-0-0 (28) DI = 4.60 Â CD = 0.93 ANZ = 4.60
Mare Profile = 5-4-0-8-10 Â Speed = 9 Â Stamina = 18 Â Index = 0.50 Â Triads = 9-12-18
Configurations are 50-50 historically but the inherited distance is there.
→ EMERGING MARKET C Brown Candy Ride
Pool 1 N/A
Pool 3 N/A
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 30-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
DP = 4-4-5-1-0 (14) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.79 ANZ = 4.14
Mare Profile = 1-4-6-7-8 Â Speed = 5 Â Stamina = 15 Â Index = 0.41 Â Triads = 11-17-21
Beautiful. Another with 12f Belmont configurations but has already given the evidence of balancing speed. Very nice. 5 stars.
ENGLISHMAN C DeVaux Maxfield
Pool 1 Final Odds: 40-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥
Pool 3 Final Odds: 42-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 40-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥
DP = 1-5-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 Â CD = 0.70 ANZ = 4.00
Mare Profile = 9-3-3-6-6 Â Speed = 12 Â Stamina = 12 Â Index = 1.14 Â Triads = 15-12-15
BC Dirt Mile. These are not Kentucky Derby numbers in the least.
EWING M Casse Knicks Go
Pool 1 Final Odds: 45-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ +
Pool 3 Final Odds 48-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ +
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 50-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥
DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.63 ANZ = 4.00
Mare Profile = 10-1-6-10-3 Â Speed = 11 Â Stamina = 13 Â Index = 1.23 Â Triads = 17-17-19
Form looks backwards. Possible at much later date. Drop in rating.
→ FURTHER ADO B Cox Gun Runner
Pool 1 Final Odds: 21-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
Pool 3 Final Odds: 26-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 25-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
DP = 0-3-7-0-0 (10) DI = 1.86 Â CD = 0.30 ANZ = 3.00
Mare Profile = 7-2-5-8-6 Â Speed = 9 Â Stamina = 14 Â Index = 0.84 Â Triads = 14-15-19
Recent bullet 1/56 at Payson 4f in 49.00 shows elite form is not about to let up. Remains a beautiful stamina category colt.
GOLDEN TEMPO Cherie DeVaux Curlin
Pool 1 N/A
Pool 3 N/A
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 20-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ +
DP = 7-8-10-1-0 (26) DI = 3.33 Â CD = 0.81 ANZ = 3.67
Mare Profile = 6-4-4-5-10 Â Speed = 10 Â Stamina = 15 Â Index = 0.69 Â Triads = 14-13-19
Mares passed sufficient 10f+ distance. Could exceed rating later with ample time to prove speed side.
→ INTREPIDO J Mullins Maximus Mischief
Pool 1 Final Odds: 34-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ +
Pool 3 Final Odds: 87-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 30-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ +
DP = 1-8-5-0-0 (14) DI = 4.60 Â CD = 0.71 ANZ = 4.60
Mare Profile = 3-6-5-10-4 Â Speed = 9 Â Stamina = 14 Â Index = 0.74 Â Triads = 14-21-19
Redeemed himself from bad time in Juvenile in Robert B Lewis. Very nice Derby Configurations, back to 4.5 stars.
IRON HONOR C Brown Nyquist
Pool 1 Final Odds: N/A
Pool 3 Final Odds: 60-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ +
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 60-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ +
DP = 0-0-0-0-0 (0) DI = Inf  CD = Inf ANZ = Inf
Mare Profile = 6-1-6-7-8 Â Speed = 7 Â Stamina = 15 Â Index = 0.66 Â Triads = 13-14-21
Mares say yes to 10f but zero chefs in the 1st four generations of chart is hard to back. No change.
JACKSON HOLE T Pletcher Nyquist
Pool 1 N/A
Pool 3 N/A
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 50-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ +
DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.67 ANZ = 5.67
Mare Profile = 8-1-5-7-6 Â Speed = 9 Â Stamina = 13 Â Index = 0.92 Â Triads = 14-13-18
10f is there and has some speed backing to balance. Still lacks somewhat like Iron Honor - need proof beyond allowance.
LITMUS TEST B Baffert Nyquist
Pool 1 Final Odds: 141-1 DHC Rating: ♥
Pool 3 Final Odds: 35-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 40-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥
DP = 4-4-5-1-0 (14) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.79 ANZ = 4.14
Mare Profile = 7-1-7-4-7 Â Speed = 8 Â Stamina = 11 Â Index = 0.88 Â Triads = 15-12-18
Inferior set-up. Borderline 10f. No change.
MESQUITE C DeVaux Union Rags
Pool 1 N/A
Pool 3 Final Odds: 57-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ +
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 75-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ +
DP = 5-5-9-1-0 (20) DI = 2.64 Â CD = 0.70 ANZ = 2.64
Mare Profile = 9-4-2-8-7 Â Speed = 13 Â Stamina = 15 Â Index = 1.00 Â Triads = 15-14-17
These are not Derby configurations.. Borderline 10f.
MY WORLD B Cox Essential Quality
Pool 1 N/A
Pool 3 Final Odds: 81-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 80-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
DP = 1-5-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 Â CD = 0.70 ANZ = 5.00
Mare Profile = 10-5-3-6-7 Â Speed = 15 Â Stamina = 13 Â Index = 1.22 Â Triads = 18-14-16 (2nd gen Tapit)
Nice Derby configurations but trip back from overseas may affect form for the future.
NAPOLEON SOLO C Summers Liam's Map
Pool 1 Final Odds: 27-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥
Pool 3 Final Odds: 30-1 DHC Rating: ♥
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 25-1 DHC Rating: ♥
DP = 3-13-4-0-0 (20) DI = 9.00 Â CD = 0.95 ANZ = 10.20
Mare Profile = 5-8-2-6-8 Â Speed = 13 Â Stamina = 14 Â Index = 0.83 Â Triads = 15-16-16
No chance at 10f.
NEARLY T Pletcher Not This Time
Pool 1 N/A
Pool 3 Final Odds: 20-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 10-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥
DP = 2-2-12-0-0 (16) DI = 1.67 Â CD = 0.38
Mare Profile = 8-9-3-5-8 Â Speed = 17 Â Stamina = 13 Â Index = 1.17 Â Triads = 20-17-16
Historically, mares are completely backwards for the Derby. Excellent for the Trail though. No change.
→ PALADIN C Brown Gun Runner
Pool 1 Final Odds: 40-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
Pool 3 Final Odds: 14-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 8-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
DP = 1-4-7-0-0 (12) DI = 2.43 Â CD = 0.50 ANZ = 4.71
Mare Profile = 5-4-6-6-6 Â Speed = 9 Â Stamina = 12 Â Index = 0.83 Â Triads = 15-16-18 (2nd gen Tapit)
Pool one was the time to get this guy although 2.43 Tapit boy is still a tough one for Derby day.
→ PLUTARCH Bob Baffert Into Mischief
Pool 1 Final Odds: 76 -1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
Pool 3 N/A
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 20-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.63 ANZ = 4.00
Mare Profile = 7-6-4-7-8 Â Speed = 13 Â Stamina = 15 Â Index = 0.89 Â Triads = 17-17-19
Another who was perfect at Pool One and remains exactly the same today- without the killer odds. 5 stars straight through.
→ POTENTE Bob Baffert Into Mischief
Pool 1 N/A
Pool 3 N/A
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 50-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ +
DP = 1-4-7-0-0 (12) DI = 2.43 Â CD = 0.50
Mare Profile = 3-10-5-11-3 Â Speed = 13 Â Stamina = 14 Â Index = 0.95 Â Triads = 18-26-19
Opening at 50-1! Yes. Yes. Yes. Mid-range category on the lead from Into Mischief is an absolute yes.
POWERSHIFT T Pletcher Constitution
Pool 1 N/A
Pool 3 N/A
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 80-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ +
DP = 2-9-7-0-0 (18) DI = 4.14 Â CD = 0.72 ANZ = 4.14
Mare Profile = 6-8-1-4-6 Â Speed = 14 Â Stamina = 10 Â Index = 1.24 Â Triads = 15-13-11 (2nd gen Tapit)
Another 2nd generation Tapit boy that is balanced correctly on the speed side.
PYROMANCER K Yashimura Pyro
Pool 1 N/A
Pool 3 N/A
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 80-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥
DP = 6-8-14-0-0 (28) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.71 ANZ = 2.56
Mare Profile = 7-5-5-7-7 Â Speed = 12 Â Stamina = 14 Â Index = 0.92 Â Triads = 17-17-19
Has the 10f but speed is highly lacking in last win performance. Need more time to prove speed side.
→ RENEGADE T Pletcher Into Mischief
Pool 1 Final Odds: 48-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
Pool 3 Final Odds: 37-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 20-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.63 ANZ = 3.00
Mare Profile = 5-9-4-9-5 Â Speed = 14 Â Stamina = 14 Â Index = 1.00 Â Triads = 18-22-18
Hoping you all took heed during Pool One, odds are now chopped down significantly. Serious contender.
SECURED FREEDOM T Yakteen Practical Joke
Pool 1 N/A
Pool 3 Final Odds: 83-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 90-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥
DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.67 ANZ = 3.00
Mare Profile = 11-4-3-7-8 Â Speed = 15 Â Stamina = 15 Â Index = 1.12 Â Triads = 18-14-18
Configurations are balanced and safe. Nothing really major about them either.
SILENT TACTIC Mark Casse Tacitus
Pool 1 N/A
Pool 3 N/A
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 30-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥
DP = 3-8-9-0-0 (20) DI = 3.44 Â CD = 0.70 ANZ = 3.89
Mare Profile = 7-4-3-7-8 Â Speed = 11 Â Stamina = 15 Â Index = 0.81 Â Triads = 14-14-18 (2nd gen Tapit)
Yet nother 2nd generation Tapit boy that is balanced correctly on the speed side. Built correctly.
SIX SPEED S Bhupat Not This Time
Pool 1 N/A
Pool 3 N/A
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 50-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ +
DP = 4-4-13-1-0 (22) DI = 1.93 Â CD = 0.50 ANZ = 2.47
Mare Profile = 8-8-3-5-7 Â Speed = 16 Â Stamina = 12 Â Index = 1.23 Â Triads = 19-16-15
Hard to overlook the mare's balance even with a very handsome Not This Time son. Mare's are historically backwards.
SO HAPPY M Glatt Runhappy
Pool 1 Final Odds: N/A
Pool 3 Final Odds: 32-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ +
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 40-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥
DP = 1-2-1-0-0 (4) DI = 7.00 Â CD = 1.00 ANZ = 11.00
Mare Profile = 5-6-5-8-5 Â Speed = 11 Â Stamina = 13 Â Index = 0.91 Â Triads = 16-19-18
Board hit Potential, especially on a "type two" sloppy track. No change.
SOLDIER N DIPLOMAT Steve Asmussen Army Mule
Pool 1 Final Odds: 117-1 DHC Rating: ♥
Pool 3 N/A
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 75-1 DHC Rating: ♥
DP = 3-5-6-0-0 (14) DI = 3.67 Â CD = 0.79 ANZ = 4.33
Mare Profile = 8-7-4-4-6 Â Speed = 15 Â Stamina = 10 Â Index = 1.35 Â Triads = 19-15-14
These configurations are the perfect example of what does not work in the Kentucky Derby.
SOLITUDE DUDE S Joseph Yaupon
Pool 1 N/A
Pool 3 N/A
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 50-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥
DP = 1-0-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 1.00
Mare Profile = 7-4-5-8-6 Â Speed = 11 Â Stamina = 14 Â Index = 0.92 Â Triads = 16-17-19
The configurations are balanced correctly, but they are slightly dull.
TALK TO ME JIMMY R Rodriguez Modernist
Pool 1 N/A
Pool 3 N/A
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 80-1 DHC Rating: ♥
DP = 0-2-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.50 ANZ = 3.00
Mare Profile = 6-7-5-7-3 Â Speed = 13 Â Stamina = 10 Â Index = 1.33 Â Triads = 18-19-15
He'll be hanging with Soldier N Diplomat if they happen to get a Derby gate.
THE PUMA G Delgado Essential Quality
Pool 1 N/A
Pool 3 N/A
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 90-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
DP = 2-7-5-0-0 (14) DI = 4.60 Â CD = 0.79 ANZ = 5.40
Mare Profile = 9-4-5-5-7 Â Speed = 13 Â Stamina = 12 Â Index = 1.13 Â Triads = 18-14-17 (2nd gen Tapit)
One more Tapit boy with very ample speed inheritance to back up that stamina. The 5.40 ANZ is not too shabby!
→ THUNDEROUSLY W Mott Gun Runner
Pool 1 N/A
Pool 3 Final Odds: 22-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ +
Pool 4 Opening Odds: 25-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ +
DP = 1-5-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 Â CD = 0.70 ANZ = 6.00
Mare Profile = 2-6-6-9-6 Â Speed = 8 Â Stamina = 15 Â Index = 0.59 Â Triads = 14-21-21
KILLER NUMBERS. Rain or shine.