2026 Kentucky Derby - Futures Pool Four Ratings

Future Pool FOUR - February 13th through February 15th

Ratings pertain strictly to the 10f Kentucky Derby and have no bearing on future Derby Preps. Ratings at 1 heart to the highest at 5 hearts depicting suitability for Board Hit Consideration (superfecta placement) on a Churchill Downs May Track at 10f and assumes a healthy horse from now through to Derby Post Time. It also considers the minimal past performances to date as it aligns with their configurations. (The presence of Tapit is also taken into consideration against the mare configurations.)

BLACKOUT TIME K McPeek Not This Time

Pool 1 Final Odds: 20-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Pool 3 Final Odds: 43-1 DHC Rating: ????

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 40-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 32-1

DP = 2-2-15-2-1 (22) DI = 1.10   CD = 0.09 ANZ = 1.48

Mare Profile = 6-11-2-8-6   Speed = 17   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.14   Triads = 19-21-16

• Finally back on the worktab. 2/11 Posted a bullet at Oaklawn, 5f in a minute flat. Mares line a bit off.

BOYD B Baffert Violence

Pool 1 Final Odds: 39-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥

Pool 3 Final Odds: 34-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 40-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 34-1 

DP = 3-5-5-1-0 (14) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.71 ANZ = 2.64

Mare Profile = 8-4-2-8-6   Speed = 12   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.00   Triads = 14-14-16

• Historically, completely off.

BRANT B Baffert Gun Runner

Pool 1 Final Odds: 14-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ +

Pool 3 Final Odds: 23-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ +

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 20-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ + POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 26-1

DP = 1-5-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00   CD = 0.70 ANZ = 6.00

Mare Profile = 5-6-4-7-6   Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.87   Triads = 15-17-17

• Mares slightly off under the 4.00 index.

BRAVARO S Joseph Upstart

Pool 1 Field

Pool 3 Field

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 80-1 DHC Rating: ♥ POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 60-1

DP = 2-4-6-0-0 (12) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.67 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 11-3-0-4-10   Speed = 14   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.04   Triads = 14-7-14

• Not even close.

CANALETTO C Brown Into Mischief

Pool 1 Field

Pool 3 Field

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 40-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ + POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 15-1

DP = 2-6-3-1-0 (12) DI = 3.80   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 4.60

Mare Profile = 3-9-5-10-3   Speed = 12   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.95   Triads = 17-24-18

• Distorted Humor factor slices into confidence even with Into Mischief. Need more evidence.

CARSON STREET B Walsh Street Sense

Pool 1 Field

Pool 3 Field

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 75-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ + POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 307-1 

DP = 3-1-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.88 ANZ = 2.00

Mare Profile = 3-8-3-13-5   Speed = 11   Stamina = 18   Index = 0.65   Triads = 14-24-21

• 12f Belmont Stakes Configurations. 10f easily, now needs to present speed side to be competitive in the Derby.

CHIEF WALLABEE W Mott Constitution

Pool 1 Field

Pool 3 Field

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 75-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ + POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 21-1

DP = 3-7-5-1-0 (16) DI = 3.57   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 3.57

Mare Profile = 7-8-3-4-6   Speed = 15   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.32   Triads = 18-15-13 (2nd gen Tapit)

• Hits the mark with Tapit in 2nd generation at 3.57. Board Hit Numbers.

CHIP HONCHO S Asmussen Connect

Pool 1 Field

Pool 3 Final Odds: 82-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ +

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 90-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ + POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 65-1

DP = 1-2-6-3-0 (12) DI = 1.00   CD = 0.08 ANZ = 1.00

Mare Profile = 6-6-2-10-7   Speed = 12   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.77   Triads = 14-18-19

• Major Stamina Inheritance. 10f blindfolded. Speed Side not displayed yet. No change.

CLASS PRESIDENT T Pletcher Uncle Mo

Pool 1 Field

Pool 3 Final Odds: 50-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ +

Pool 4 Opening odds: 90-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ + POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 75-1

DP = 0-2-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 5.00

Mare Profile = 9-2-6-6-7   Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.00   Triads = 17-14-19

• Not bad, not good, but distance is there. No need to force the issue at this juncture.

→ COMMANDMENT B Cox Into Mischief

Pool 1 Field

Pool 3 Final Odds: 23-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ +

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 25-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ + POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 23-1

DP = 1-2-1-0-0 (4) DI = 7.00   CD = 1.00 ANZ = 11.00

Mare Profile = 3-10-5-7-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.88   Triads = 18-22-18

• Very nice all the way around. Style, energy and configurations are all on target.

COURTING T Pletcher Curlin

Pool 1 Field

Pool 3 Field

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 90-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ + POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 54-1

DP = 8-10-10-0-0 (28) DI = 4.60   CD = 0.93 ANZ = 4.60

Mare Profile = 5-4-0-8-10   Speed = 9   Stamina = 18   Index = 0.50   Triads = 9-12-18

• Configurations are 50-50 historically but the inherited distance is there.

→ EMERGING MARKET C Brown Candy Ride

Pool 1 Field

Pool 3 Field

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 30-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 42-1

DP = 4-4-5-1-0 (14) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.79 ANZ = 4.14

Mare Profile = 1-4-6-7-8   Speed = 5   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.41   Triads = 11-17-21

• Beautiful. Another with 12f Belmont configurations but has already given the evidence of balancing speed. Very nice. 5 stars.

  
  

ENGLISHMAN C DeVaux Maxfield

Pool 1 Final Odds: 40-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥

Pool 3 Final Odds: 42-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 40-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 37-1 

DP = 1-5-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00   CD = 0.70 ANZ = 4.00

Mare Profile = 9-3-3-6-6   Speed = 12   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.14   Triads = 15-12-15

• BC Dirt Mile. These are not Kentucky Derby numbers in the least.

  
  

EWING M Casse Knicks Go

Pool 1 Final Odds: 45-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ +

Pool 3 Final Odds 48-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ +

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 50-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 62-1

DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.63 ANZ = 4.00

Mare Profile = 10-1-6-10-3   Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.23   Triads = 17-17-19

• Form looks backwards. Possible at much later date. Drop in rating.

  
  

→ FURTHER ADO B Cox Gun Runner

Pool 1 Final Odds: 21-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Pool 3 Final Odds: 26-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 25-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 24-1 

DP = 0-3-7-0-0 (10) DI = 1.86   CD = 0.30 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 7-2-5-8-6   Speed = 9   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.84   Triads = 14-15-19

• Recent bullet 1/56 at Payson 4f in 49.00 shows elite form is not about to let up. Remains a beautiful stamina category colt.

  
  

GOLDEN TEMPO Cherie DeVaux Curlin

Pool 1 Field

Pool 3 Field

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 20-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ + POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 32-1

DP = 7-8-10-1-0 (26) DI = 3.33   CD = 0.81 ANZ = 3.67

Mare Profile = 6-4-4-5-10   Speed = 10   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.69   Triads = 14-13-19

• Mares passed sufficient 10f+ distance. Could exceed rating later with ample time to prove speed side.

→ INTREPIDO J Mullins Maximus Mischief

Pool 1 Final Odds: 34-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ +

Pool 3 Final Odds: 87-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 30-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ + POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 82-1

DP = 1-8-5-0-0 (14) DI = 4.60   CD = 0.71 ANZ = 4.60

Mare Profile = 3-6-5-10-4   Speed = 9   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.74   Triads = 14-21-19

• Redeemed himself from bad time in Juvenile in Robert B Lewis. Very nice Derby Configurations, back to 4.5 stars.

IRON HONOR C Brown Nyquist

Pool 1 Field

Pool 3 Final Odds: 60-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ +

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 60-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ + POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 122-1

DP = 0-0-0-0-0 (0) DI = Inf   CD = Inf ANZ = Inf

Mare Profile = 6-1-6-7-8   Speed = 7   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.66   Triads = 13-14-21

• Mares say yes to 10f but zero chefs in the 1st four generations of chart is hard to back. No change.

JACKSON HOLE T Pletcher Nyquist

Pool 1 Field

Pool 3 Field

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 50-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ + POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 45-1

DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.67 ANZ = 5.67

Mare Profile = 8-1-5-7-6   Speed = 9   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.92   Triads = 14-13-18

• 10f is there and has some speed backing to balance. Still lacks somewhat like Iron Honor - need proof beyond allowance.

LITMUS TEST B Baffert Nyquist

Pool 1 Final Odds: 141-1 DHC Rating: ♥

Pool 3 Final Odds: 35-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 40-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 38-1

DP = 4-4-5-1-0 (14) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.79 ANZ = 4.14

Mare Profile = 7-1-7-4-7   Speed = 8   Stamina = 11   Index = 0.88   Triads = 15-12-18

• Inferior set-up. Borderline 10f. No change.

MESQUITE C DeVaux Union Rags

Pool 1 Field

Pool 3 Final Odds: 57-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ +

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 75-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ + POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: Suspended/off the trail

DP = 5-5-9-1-0 (20) DI = 2.64   CD = 0.70 ANZ = 2.64

Mare Profile = 9-4-2-8-7   Speed = 13   Stamina = 15   Index = 1.00   Triads = 15-14-17

• These are not Derby configurations. 10f is inbred, however, needs to show some display of speed with that 2.64 index.

MY WORLD B Cox Essential Quality

Pool 1 Field

Pool 3 Final Odds: 81-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 80-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 207-1 

DP = 1-5-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00   CD = 0.70 ANZ = 5.00

Mare Profile = 10-5-3-6-7   Speed = 15   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.22   Triads = 18-14-16 (2nd gen Tapit)

• Nice Derby configurations but trip back from overseas may affect form for the future.

NAPOLEON SOLO C Summers Liam's Map

Pool 1 Final Odds: 27-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥

Pool 3 Final Odds: 30-1 DHC Rating: ♥

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 25-1 DHC Rating: ♥ POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 30-1

DP = 3-13-4-0-0 (20) DI = 9.00   CD = 0.95 ANZ = 10.20

Mare Profile = 5-8-2-6-8   Speed = 13   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.83   Triads = 15-16-16

• No chance at 10f.

NEARLY T Pletcher Not This Time

Pool 1 Field

Pool 3 Final Odds: 20-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 10-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 10-1

DP = 2-2-12-0-0 (16) DI = 1.67   CD = 0.38

Mare Profile = 8-9-3-5-8   Speed = 17   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.17   Triads = 20-17-16

• Historically, mares are completely backwards for the Derby. Excellent for the Trail though. No change.

→ PALADIN C Brown Gun Runner

Pool 1 Final Odds: 40-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Pool 3 Final Odds: 14-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 8-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 9-1

DP = 1-4-7-0-0 (12) DI = 2.43   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 4.71

Mare Profile = 5-4-6-6-6   Speed = 9   Stamina = 12   Index = 0.83   Triads = 15-16-18 (2nd gen Tapit)

• Pool one was the time to get this guy although 2.43 Tapit boy is still a tough one for Derby day.

→ PLUTARCH Bob Baffert Into Mischief

Pool 1 Final Odds: 76 -1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Pool 3 Field

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 20-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 27-1 

DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.63 ANZ = 4.00

Mare Profile = 7-6-4-7-8   Speed = 13   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.89   Triads = 17-17-19

• Another who was perfect at Pool One and remains exactly the same today- without the killer odds. 5 stars straight through.

→ POTENTE Bob Baffert Into Mischief

Pool 1 Field

Pool 3 Field

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 50-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ + POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 44-1

DP = 1-4-7-0-0 (12) DI = 2.43   CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 3-10-5-11-3   Speed = 13   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.95   Triads = 18-26-19

• Opening at 50-1! Yes. Yes. Yes. Mid-range category on the lead from Into Mischief is an absolute yes.
  

POWERSHIFT T Pletcher Constitution

Pool 1 Field

Pool 3 Field

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 80-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ + POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 69-1

DP = 2-9-7-0-0 (18) DI = 4.14   CD = 0.72 ANZ = 4.14

Mare Profile = 6-8-1-4-6   Speed = 14   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.24   Triads = 15-13-11 (2nd gen Tapit)

• Another 2nd generation Tapit boy that is balanced correctly on the speed side.

PYROMANCER K Yashimura Pyro

Pool 1 Field

Pool 3 Field

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 80-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 77-1

DP = 6-8-14-0-0 (28) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.71 ANZ = 2.56

Mare Profile = 7-5-5-7-7   Speed = 12   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.92   Triads = 17-17-19

• Has the 10f but speed is highly lacking in last win performance. Need more time to prove speed side.

→ RENEGADE T Pletcher Into Mischief

Pool 1 Final Odds: 48-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Pool 3 Final Odds: 37-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 20-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 16-1

DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.63 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 5-9-4-9-5   Speed = 14   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.00   Triads = 18-22-18

• Hoping you all took heed during Pool One, odds are now chopped down significantly. Serious contender.

SECURED FREEDOM T Yakteen Practical Joke

Pool 1 Field

Pool 3 Final Odds: 83-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 90-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 61-1

DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.67 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 11-4-3-7-8   Speed = 15   Stamina = 15   Index = 1.12   Triads = 18-14-18

• Configurations are balanced and safe. Nothing really major about them either.

SILENT TACTIC Mark Casse Tacitus

Pool 1 Field

Pool 3 Field

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 30-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 19-1

DP = 3-8-9-0-0 (20) DI = 3.44   CD = 0.70 ANZ = 3.89

Mare Profile = 7-4-3-7-8   Speed = 11   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.81   Triads = 14-14-18 (2nd gen Tapit)

• Yet another 2nd generation Tapit boy that is balanced correctly on the speed side. Built correctly.

  
  

SIX SPEED S Bhupat Not This Time

Pool 1 Field

Pool 3 Field

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 50-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ + POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 73-1

DP = 4-4-13-1-0 (22) DI = 1.93   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 2.47

Mare Profile = 8-8-3-5-7   Speed = 16   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.23   Triads = 19-16-15

• Hard to overlook the mare's balance even with a very handsome Not This Time son. Mare's are historically backwards.

SO HAPPY M Glatt Runhappy

Pool 1 Final Odds: N/A

Pool 3 Final Odds: 32-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ +

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 40-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 53-1

DP = 1-2-1-0-0 (4) DI = 7.00   CD = 1.00 ANZ = 11.00

Mare Profile = 5-6-5-8-5   Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.91   Triads = 16-19-18

• Board hit Potential, especially on a "type two" sloppy track. No change.

SOLDIER N DIPLOMAT Steve Asmussen Army Mule

Pool 1 Final Odds: 117-1 DHC Rating: ♥

Pool 3 Field

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 75-1 DHC Rating: ♥ POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 129-1

DP = 3-5-6-0-0 (14) DI = 3.67   CD = 0.79 ANZ = 4.33

Mare Profile = 8-7-4-4-6   Speed = 15   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.35   Triads = 19-15-14

• These configurations are the perfect example of what does not work in the Kentucky Derby.

SOLITUDE DUDE S Joseph Yaupon

Pool 1 Field

Pool 3 Field

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 50-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 83-1

DP = 1-0-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00   CD = 1.00

Mare Profile = 7-4-5-8-6   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.92   Triads = 16-17-19

• The configurations are balanced correctly, but they are slightly dull.

TALK TO ME JIMMY R Rodriguez Modernist

Pool 1 Field

Pool 3 Field

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 80-1 DHC Rating: ♥ POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 42-1 

DP = 0-2-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 6-7-5-7-3   Speed = 13   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.33   Triads = 18-19-15

• He'll be hanging with Soldier N Diplomat if they happen to get a Derby gate.

THE PUMA G Delgado Essential Quality

Pool 1 Field

Pool 3 Field

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 90-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: 123-1

DP = 2-7-5-0-0 (14) DI = 4.60   CD = 0.79 ANZ = 5.40

Mare Profile = 9-4-5-5-7   Speed = 13   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.13   Triads = 18-14-17 (2nd gen Tapit)

• One more Tapit boy with very ample speed inheritance to back up that stamina. The 5.40 ANZ is not too shabby!

→ THUNDEROUSLY W Mott Gun Runner

Pool 1 Field

Pool 3 Final Odds: 22-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ +

Pool 4 Opening Odds: 25-1 DHC Rating: ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ + POOL 4 FINAL ODDS: Suspended/off the trail

DP = 1-5-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00   CD = 0.70 ANZ = 6.00

Mare Profile = 2-6-6-9-6   Speed = 8   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.59   Triads = 14-21-21

• KILLER NUMBERS. Rain or shine.

• 2/15 - Trainer Bill Mott confirms that Thunderously will be sidelined indefinitely and is off the Kentucky Derby trail. Heartbreaking news.