2026 Haskell Stakes - Analysis

Saturday, July 18th, 2026

Monmouth Park - 9f

This analysis will serve as the first example of how the rapid influx of 42 newly appointed Chefs has affected the full fields of competitors as we move forward in handicapping Graded Stakes Races.

The changes are massive, and with respect to the race at hand - the Haskell Stakes - this pretty much sums up what we will find across the board throughout the year.

Prior to the changes, the last 25 editions of the Haskell Stakes produced winners at:

60% Chef Index 3.00 and over (15 out of 25)  

24% Chef Index 2.00 to 2.90 (6 out of 25)  

16% Chef Index under 2.00 (4 out of 25)

84% Mares Stamina Dominant (21 out of 25)  

8% Mares Speed Dominant (2 out of 25)  

8% Mares Even Balance (2 out of 25)

88% 12f Belmont or 10f Kentucky Derby Configurations (22 out of 25)  

12% Not Belmont or Derby Configurations (3 out of 25)

That was a fantastic blueprint for pinpointing advantaged players within a full field based on those percentages, which aligned perfectly on a 9f track at Monmouth Park in mid-July on a recurring bias. The fields were spread out along the speed/stamina spectrum, and the hotshots stood out fairly easily - while half the field was easily tossed even before looking at the PP sheets.

With the Haskell Stakes, the advantaged top percentage (60% going to 3.00+) was actually one of the lower recurring advantaged factors within the vast number of Graded Stakes races. Generally, the recurring top percentages were closer to 80% to 90% for the vast majority of stakes races - but even still, 60% for the Haskell was a nice repetitive starting point, even though it was lower than most.

The recurring advantages (both through the Chefs and the Mares) made sense for the track bias at Monmouth at the 9f distance in mid-July. Monmouth Park is notorious for dirt track speed biases that heavily favor early runners and front-runners and tends to be more punishing for late closers.

Early runners and front-runners tended to lean to the speed side (3.00 and over), while the early (2.00 to 2.90) and late runners (under 2.00) tended toward stamina. Everything was readable and made sense for the race at hand. Fast up front through the chefs with enough mare stamina to sustain it on that track at that distance.

Every race had its own set of percentages - be it 88% winners in the stamina category or 78% winners in the mid-range category, or 92% in the speed category, etc.—which inevitably produced a clear sense of who was actually built properly for that specific race. The past race results charts repeatedly saw the favored rise to the occasion, while the disadvantaged configurations for that track at that distance fell to the bottom - all with minimal outliers.

Within the competing field itself, be it 7 competitors or 14 competitors, the configurations within that field ran the full speed/stamina spectrum. I can't recall ever seeing a competing field (past or recent) comprise of basically the same chef configurations across the board.

This allowed the handicapper to gauge the horse’s past performances in alliance with its favored and advantaged build - historically speaking, for that race.

For the Haskell Stakes, the percentages for the past winners now read (Mare percentages stay the same):

28% Chef Index 3.00 and over (7 out of 25) 5 of which come from 20 to 25 years ago 

36% Chef Index 2.00 to 2.90 (9 out of 25)  

36% Chef Index under 2.00 (9 out of 25)

As I stated in a previous article, the fields have leveled out - past winners, the past full field of competitors, and the current fields as well - with the bulk of all falling within the lower mid-range to upper stamina categories. With respect to the past Haskell editions, 72% now fall in that range.

While that may be all well and good, the problem is that the current fields also do the same. A huge 85% for the 2026 Haskell, which means, we certainly can't cross off anyone based on chef configurations alone, as they all now cluster within the same barometer. Even with the fact that the Haskell race was slightly off par in top percentage advantages (60% as opposed to the average 80% to 88% recurrence) it still has now changed to a clustered field of players.

As far as the Chef configurations go, past winners, the past field of competitors, and the current playing field show no advantage to read at the moment. In the past, we could easily cross out at least half of the competitors from that PP sheet and simply handicap the remaining. We can’t do that anymore, at least for now.

With that, lets rip into the PPs to pull some insight for the 9f bias at Monmouth Park.

POST 1 - STAR SWEEPER Rock Your World - Tapless (Tapit) Linder/Rivera

DP = 6-6-20-2-0 (34) DI = 1.83   CD = 0.47

Mare Profile = 7-3-3-8-6   Speed = 10   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.87   Triads = 13-14-17

6/13/26 Pegasus Stakes 8.5f Monmouth RPR = N/A Rear, Last place Half: 46.95

5/10/26 Long Branch 8.3f Monmouth RPR = N/A Lead, 2nd place Half: 47.15

4/3/26 Lafayette 7f Keeneland RPR = 76 Rear, 5th Place Half: 44.47

This will be his 10th race, and the only two wins he has for his efforts is a 6.5f maiden and a 6.5f optional claimer. Both wins by default. The problem is not his chart - it's the race placement. This poor guy has no idea how to run properly because his career has been spent on a rollercoaster ride. He begins at 6.5f - then immediately ramps up to 8f. Then they back him down again to 6f and then another try at 6.5f. Unbelievably after that, they test him all the way back up to 9f. Then back down to 8.5f, back down to 7f - back up to 8.5. They wonder why it is failure after failure. Now, they are throwing a Grade 1 at him back up to 9f. It's pure punishment just reading his PP stats. This should not be entertained at all.

POST 2 - FURTHER ADO Gun Runner - Sky Dreamer (Sky Mesa) Cox/Irad Ortiz

DP = 12-3-21-0-0 (36) DI = 2.43   CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 7-2-5-8-6   Speed = 9   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.84   Triads = 14-15-19

6/7/26 Matt Winn 8.5f Churchill RPR = 118 Stalked, Won Half: 46.69

5/2/26 Kentucky Derby 10f Churchill RPR = 102 Midpack, 11th place Half: 46.44

4/4/26 Blue Grass 9f Keeneland RPR = 117 Midpack, Won Half: 47.71

3/7/26 Tampa Bay Derby 8.5f Tampa Bay RPR = 108 Stalked, 2nd place Half: 46.68

11/29/25 KY Jockey Club 8.5f Churchill RPR = 101 Midpack, Won Half: 46.76

Regardless of a poor performance or a great performance in the Kentucky Derby, I always tend to simply toss the race from consideration thereafter for any of the competitors. It's a race of luck, plain and simple. One thing though that does stand out with that race as compared to his others; it is the one and only time that Irad was not aboard and the 102 rating highlights it. With the Derby out of the picture, look at the progression in those RPR numbers as he matured along the way. They are perfect. His mare configurations are perfect. His will and determination is perfect. Mid-summer timing for the grandson of Candy Ride hits its peak. Back up to 9f on a faster bias with his inbred stamina aids either way those winds off the shore want to blow. I can't see him losing this race, especially if he continues on his upward trajectory. Love him.

POST 3 - BABY VINO Vino Rosso - Discreetly Grand (Discreetly Mine) Schultz/Vargas

DP = 1-6-15-0-0 (22) DI = 1.93   CD = 0.36

Mare Profile = 8-1-3-8-9   Speed = 9   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.69   Triads = 12-12-20

6/13/26 Pegasus Stakes 8.5f Monmouth RPR = N/A Midpack, Won Half: 46.95

5/1/26 Maiden 8.5f Oaklawn RPR = N/A Stalked, Won Half: 47.64

This guy was built for distance but he runs counter to it. He had a visually beautiful 10 length win in the Pegasus but he was all speed up front (99 109 78) and it was against a mini 4 horse field, all which were fairly subpar as well. Nothing against the horse, surely he is built much better for this 9f contest, but he's way out of his class for a Grade 1 race. If he can somehow attach himself to all of that pure stamina that he gained from his elite mares, he would be able to distribute his speed much more properly and not use up the tank so early in his races. If he does that in the Haskell, he'd have at least a shot of grabbing something with such a short field. Up to this point he has not followed his breeding, but it is there. He has demonstrated speed ability, it is just a matter of attaching that stamina to it. Does he grow up by Saturday evening?

POST 4 - THE PUMA Essential Quality - Eve of War (Declaration of War) Delgado/Saez

DP = 4-7-15-0-0 (26) DI = 2.47   CD = 0.58

Mare Profile = 9-4-5-5-7   Speed = 13   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.13   Triads = 18-14-17

3/28/26 Florida Derby 9f Gulfstream RPR = 113 Rear, 2nd place Half: 48.80

3/7/26 Tampa Bay Derby 8.5f Tampa Bay RPR = 110 Rear, Won Half: 46.68

2/7/26 Sam F Davis 8f Tampa Bay RPR = 90 Lower Mid, 3rd place Half: 48.30

Very nice horse, but he has several major uphill battles. This will be his first race back from a very long lay-off after a skin infection and severe swelling in his leg. Lightly raced with an interrupted workout schedule. A track bias that caters to front runners. Mares balance in the 8% win ratio. That is a lot of punches, but the horse hauls ass in the late stages of every one of his 4 races and he's sure to do the same on Saturday. No intentions of playing a superfecta with only a 7 horse field, so I will take a stab at using him in the lower end of a trifecta pitted against a speed horse. Either the front running speed guy holds on or The Puma passes him as he retreats. Its a 50-50 shot one way or the other. His contest is against Ocelli, who also runs well consistently in the late stages. The Puma's Ratings show a nice build-up for success as he progresses, but its the Grade 1 placement after the layoff as a first race that will truly test him, especially with his style on this bias. Most would have opted for a conditioning race first, then set their sights on the Travers. I think this horse will only get better with time.

POST 5 - IRON HONOR Nyquist - Orencia (Blame) Brown/Prat

DP = 3-7-10-0-0 (20) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.65

Mare Profile = 6-1-6-7-8   Speed = 7   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.66   Triads = 13-14-21

5/16/26 Preakness 9.5f Laurel Park RPR = 115 Upper Mid, 2nd place Half: 46.66

4/4/26 Wood Memorial 9f Aqueduct RPR = 93 Stalked, 7th place Half: 47.30

2/28/26 Gotham Stakes 8f Aqueduct RPR = 107 Lead, Won Half: 46.30

There is alot to like about this horse and I'm feeling him much more than Napoleon in this situation. First and foremost, his mares configurations are killer for this race. He also did very well on the fair track at Laurel Park and also grabbed two wins on the tougher track at Aqueduct. Yes, he had a bad time in the Wood but he was harshly bumped into the first turn and then he spent a lot of time in the 4 path thereafter. Napoleon had a clean run and gave way on his own. It would seem fair to suggest that the speedier Monmouth track would be right up his alley and if he returns fully to a more forward spot at the first call like his style was prior to the Preakness, things may finally align properly for this guy. I've had him pegged for the PA Derby and the Parx bias does align with Monmouth to an extent, so it may be a perfect combo for July. With Prat aboard and no funny business from Lopez, I see this guy making a huge move forward on this track at this distance. Is it enough to beat the big guy in Post Two? Highly doubtful, but depending on the odds, there's room to bend!

POST 6 - NAPOLEON SOLO Liam's Map - Atomic Blonde (Scat Daddy) Summers/Lopez

DP = 8-9-29-0-0 (46) DI = 2.17   CD = 0.54

Mare Profile = 5-8-2-6-8   Speed = 13   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.83   Triads = 15-16-16

5/16/26 Preakness Stakes 9.5f     Laurel Park     RPR = 118 Stalked, Won. Half: 46.66

4/4/26 Wood Memorial 9f Aqueduct RPR = 97 Lead, 5th place Half: 47.30

2/28/26 Fountain of Youth 8.5f Gulfstream RPR = 83 Stalked, 5th place Half: 46.89

Napoleon ran so well at Laurel Park, a track that plays quite fairly across the board. Now he's hitting Monmouth Park, which truly caters to his front running style. The coastal location with its high humidity also aid these types. Along with that though, comes the winds. A tailwind will give him advantage but a strong headwind down the backstretch would be a huge disadvantage to his type - that is where the stamina part creeps in. Based on his attempt to go gate to wire in the Wood on the Aqueduct bias with only a 47.30 half shows that his mares contribution is too balanced, not hefty enough. He then comes back and basically freaks in the Preakness with perfect energy distribution on that FAIR track. He lost energy on the faster track of Gulfstream and returns to that type of bias this Saturday. He has never broken a 100 beyer and his earlier ratings fall very short against the better known names in this race. His best performance came at the mile mark in the Champagne Stakes. His sire, Liam's Map is a freshly minted Chef with a CLASSIC designation. Liam did produce Burnham Square, who is winning 12f turf races now, but he was always up and down traveling shorter on dirt (Burnham came in 5th place in last year's Haskell) Same with Napoleon - up and down - speed getting the better of him on harsher dirt. He's a half decent horse who hits on a whim but something is oddly off on a speed favoring dirt bias vs his energy capacity - just like Burnham. On the other side as well, I will say that I simply do not like Paco Lopez - nor do I trust his unabashed and reckless methods of getting to that wire. You never know what you're going to get when he's involved. I can't back a win for this guy even though he truly impressed at 9.5f at Laurel.

POST 7 - OCELLI Connect - Zalia (Scat Daddy) Beckman/Gaffalione

DP = 4-9-21-2-0 (36) DI = 1.88   CD = 0.42

Mare Profile = 11-2-2-9-7   Speed = 13   Stamina = 16   Index = 1.04   Triads = 15-13-18

6/20/26 Ohio Derby 9f Thistledown RPR = N/A Rear, 2nd place Half: 47.30

5/16/26 Preakness Stakes 9.5f Laurel Park RPR = 102 Upper Rear, 4th place Half: 46.66

5/2/26 Kentucky Derby 10f Churchill RPR = 116 Rear, 3rd place Half: 46.44

4/4/26 Wood Memorial 9f Aqueduct RPR = 100 Rear, 3rd place Half: 47.30

3/14/26 Virginia Derby 9f Colonial RPR = 94 Rear, 6th place Half: 47.15

I am not sure what the hype is concerning this horse - he has yet to post a win with 9 attempts, barely hitting the board. His 116 RPR in the Kentucky Derby stands out, but it holds no real value - its a toss race for those who do good and for those who do bad. The Kentucky Derby relies on luck and an unscathed trip and in Ocelli's case, coming out of the 17th post and remaining in the rear handed him his unimpeded fight along with the other top board-hitters. Its a toss race. We may be able to even toss his 4th place in the Preakness due to a quick turn around. So we look at the 9f Ohio Derby and the 9f Wood Memorial performances where his energy held the strongest but his late figures way under par. The horse has consistently progressed from the rear to the top of the stretch in his last 4 races but he has been aided in that regard by retreating horses, not by raw speed.

Trifecta:

1st - Further Ado

2nd - Iron Honor

3rd - Napoleon Solo, The Puma