2026 Fountain of Youth - History and Analysis

Full analysis will be updated soon. Take the time to look through the historical points as a good handicapping exercise before it is updated.

This race is more about BALANCE than specific speed/stamina categories. It is the perfect prep for the Kentucky Derby and also the Belmont Stakes (either 10f or 12f). The running style, as it aligns with their breeding, is a major tell when it comes to the balance of their scale and how they are capturing that balance. As with the Derby goes the same with this Prep Race, they must present the perfect balance of heightened speed along with the endurance to sustain it.

One of the easiest ways to depict this ability is to decipher how their breeding tells us how they SHOULD be running against how they are actually running. In other words, they MUST have shown the evidence of the capability to capture both sides of their balance. It is a necessity for the Fountain of Youth, the Florida Derby, The Kentucky Derby and the Belmont.

HISTORY (2025 - 2012) Previous 14 Years

Running Style against the grain of their breeding: 11 out of 14 = 79%

Running Style directly in line with their breeding: 3 out of 14 = 21%

• Promises Fulfilled, Wildcat Red and Gunnevera had a running style that matched their configurations exactly. Therefore, there was no concrete evidence of a balanced scale prior. (This, in turn, affected future performances.)

• Based on the list of high quality past runners who mostly all went on to have major success and also based on everything that we talk about at the DHC, we always want to see evidence of the opposite of what the horse was bred with. We need to see the evidence of BALANCE. This evidence is easily read through their running style against their configurations.

  • This means Speed horses coming from the rear. Opposite. (Most speed horses take the lead tier.)

  • Midrange Category horses running on the lead. Opposite. (Most midrange category horses will stay neutral or mid-pack)

  • Stamina horses positioning mid-pack or upper tier, etc. Opposite. (Most stamina colts reserve speed for a late run)

  • Opposite depicts that they are balanced and capturing both sides. Elite quality.

Running Style stayed the same from Previous Race to FOY:

12 out of 14 = 86%

• Wildcat Red and Mohaymen changed their running style for the Fountain of Youth.

  • This means that most should retain their previous running style and aids in clarity for handicapping this edition.

Florida Derby Outlook for the Winner of the FOY:

Ran in the Florida Derby: 13 out of 14

Hit the board in the Florida Derby: 12 out of 13 = 92%

• Dornoch did not run in the Florida Derby. Only Promises Fulfilled bombed in the Florida Derby.

  • Promises Fulfilled also bombed in the Kentucky Derby. He presented a running style that fully aligned with his speedy configurations - no reveal of the stamina side. Triads were completely incorrect moving forward passed the 8.5f. His configurations said it all.

Previous Race was Graded Stakes/Prep: 12 out of 14 = 86%

• Orb and Itsaknockout both ran in Allowance races prior to the FOY. Both at Gulfstream, so the track should count as well.

Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes Outlook:

12 of these FOY winners ran in one of those two Triple Crown Races.

9 had a running style OPPOSITE to the breeding in this race.

• 8 out of those 9 either Won or Hit the Board in their Triple Crown race.

  • Promises Fulfilled, Gunnevera and Wildcat Red were the only ones who ran straight in line with their configurations in the FOY. It was not opposite of their breeding. All three of those horses bombed in the Triple Crown.

  • The only horse who ran against the grain of their breeding in this race and bombed in the Triple Crown was Itsaknockout. Mare line was incorrect as well.

Bottom Line: Based on history, when a colt enters this particular race and has a running style that is opposite of his configurations which presents both sides of the speed/stamina scale, he has a 79% chance of winning. He has a 92% chance of a board hit in the Florida Derby. If he runs in the Derby or the 10f Belmont, he has an 89% chance of hitting the board.

2026 Contenders 8.5f Gulfstream

JACKSON HOLE Nyquist Check Marks: 1 out of 4

DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.67 ANZ = 5.67

Mare Profile = 8-1-5-7-6   Speed = 9   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.92   Triads = 14-13-18

• Last Race: 1st place in 8.5f Optional Claimer at Fairgrounds - Gate to Wire

• Apparent Running Style: Lead, Gate to Wire. Running in line with his configurations. Also ran in 4th position in maiden and won that race - so depiction of balance was shown, but that was only at 7f. Lead Tier to be safe. Numbers aren't badly balanced for FOY but they are not aligned fully with the elite previous winners. ✔

• Resembles Past Winners: Wildcat Red

• Triple Crown Outlook: Borderline.

Analysis: I keep going back and forth with this 1.3 million dollar Nyquist colt and Solitude Dude for the 4th horse for the Super. Both lightly raced undefeated colts, both run up front and both have their strong points growing from one race to the next. The Nyquist factor, the Johnny V factor and the Pletcher factor may just end up winning me over. Both colts are built very similarly as well, but Jackson has a bit more inbred speed which could come in handy in a short 8.5f race. Depending on the odds, maybe I'll just use both underneath, after all, we aren't choosing between Sierra Leone and Mindframe in the BC Classic - no need to lose sleep over it! There is still time, so I'll continue to look into both and update later.

ROCKIES BALBOA Girvin Check Marks: 1 out of 4

DP = 3-3-2-0-0 (8) DI = 7.00   CD = 1.13 ANZ = 7.00

Mare Profile = 7-4-5-7-5   Speed = 11   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.05   Triads = 16-16-17

• Last Race: 1st place in 7f Allowance at Gulfstream ✔

• Apparent Running Style: Lead and Stalk lead, the horse is running directly in line with his numbers and has shown no evidence of the other side of the scale. All speed in his configurations and in his running style. He'd be doing it for the first time here.

• Resembles Past Winners: Promises Fulfilled

• Triple Crown Outlook: Board hit, but better in the rain.

Analysis: To Follow

TALKIN Good Magic Check Marks: 2 out of 4

DP = 1-3-4-2-0 (10) DI = 1.50   CD = 0.30 ANZ = 2.50

Mare Profile = 5-7-4-9-5   Speed = 12   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.91   Triads = 16-20-18

• Last Race: 9th place in the Remson at Aqueduct. ✔

• Apparent Running Style: Forward Midpack. With his numbers, he would have needed to show us evidence of the speed side of the balance and he did. More stamina and less speed in his configurations, but he takes a more forward spot. It is what happens at the tail end of his races though that tells the full tale. ✔

• Resembles Past Winners: Simplification and Itsaknockout

• Triple Crown Outlook: Numbers are okay, forward speed eats away at his energy distribution.

Analysis: To Follow

COMMANDMENT Into Mischief Check marks: 4 out of 4

DP = 1-2-1-0-0 (4) DI = 7.00   CD = 1.00 ANZ = 11.00 Speed horse running from the Rear

Mare Profile = 3-10-5-7-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.88   Triads = 18-22-18

• Last Race: 1st in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes ✔

• Apparent Running Style: Rear and Midpack. With his speed dominant chefs numbers, his running style is absolutely depicting the other side of the scale. Exactly like his kin Sovereignty. Spectacular. ✔

• Resembles Past Winners: Sovereignty and Orb ✔ (Both won the Kentucky Derby, both in the rain)

• Triple Crown Outlook: Perfect. ✔

Analysis: Personal preference aside and looking at everything as presented, he walks into this race with the best shot at following through with history moving forward should he win the FOY. That said, it does not mean that he is lock for the win. It means that he has everything he needs to win this short race but he is better suited at 9f and over. He is a patient runner and he explodes late with excellent energy distribution. With Irad Ortiz aboard, he will most likely get a killer trip and he'll be unleashed at the perfect moment. My money will be here as the single because he appears to be of the highest quality on this field, he is backed with major inbred speed and he has already proven that he loves the Gulfstream track. Should he not be victorious in this race for whatever reason, he is still built like a titan for the Kentucky Derby over all on this field and we'll just have to wait for a longer track.

BRAVARO Upstart Check Marks: 1 out of 4

DP = 2-4-6-0-0 (12) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.67 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 11-3-0-4-10   Speed = 14   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.04   Triads = 14-7-14

• Last Race: 2nd in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream. ✔

• Apparent Running Style: Presser. Running directly in line with his numbers. Bottom end of the speed spectrum with bland balanced mares numbers. He's not shooting for the lead and he's not reserving anything for a late run. Mild and safe.

• Resembles Past Winners: Forte

• Triple Crown Outlook: Not good.

Analysis: To Follow

CHIEF WALLABEE Constitution Check Marks: 2 out of 4

DP = 3-7-5-1-0 (16) DI = 3.57   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 3.57

Mare Profile = 7-8-3-4-6   Speed = 15   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.32   Triads = 18-15-13 (2nd Gen Tapit)

• Last Race: 1st place in 7f Maiden race

• Apparent Running Style: Midpack Rear. Second generation Tapit boy coming from the rear/mid with a 3.57 index is definitely showing both sides of the scale. Tapit side (stamina) dominates with Speed apparent at 7f mark. ✔

• Resembles Past Winners: Greatest Honour and Mohaymen

• Triple Crown Outlook: Board Hit Numbers. ✔

Analysis: Showed killer speed at Gulfstream at a short 7f and he's backed with Tapit's stamina. Fantastic energy distribution with a very fine balanced scale. With only one debut race under his belt, he'll be joining a few top notch competitors but if he continues to rise as well-bred horses usually tend to do, there is no reason why he wouldn't relish a fight down that stretch. He has ample speed inheritance and he has a good backing of stamina to punch that speed up a few notches. He'll sustain it. A player in the Superfecta.

NAPOLEON SOLO Liam's Map Check Marks: 1 out of 4

DP = 3-13-4-0-0 (20) DI = 9.00   CD = 0.95 ANZ = 10.20 Speed on the Lead. No evidence. Not opposite.

Mare Profile = 5-8-2-6-8   Speed = 13   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.83   Triads = 15-16-16

• Last Race: 1st in the 8f Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct ✔

• Apparent Running Style: Lead Tier/Lead. There is no question, this horse has a style that coincides directly in line with his configurations. Zero evidence of balance in his scale. 8.5f still in wheelhouse though.

• Resembles Past Winners: Promises Fulfilled.

• Triple Crown Outlook: Zero Shot.

Analysis: He may not be built for the 10f Derby, but he is built for a board hit nod at 8.5f at Gulfstream. Could he win it? Yes, he's a miler but the extra 1/2 furlong isn't too outlandish with his mares profile. The gambler in me kinda wants this horse to win so that the masses jump aboard after the hype - keep the 10f beasts on the downlow and let the milers shine. He'll be far ahead early and when he begins to retreat and lose energy (because he will) it will just depend on the positioning of the other players. Every faith in Ortiz, Prat and Johnny to know exactly when to press that button on their colts. Those guys will be charging towards a tiring Napoleon. Hard not to use this guy at 8.5f so, he'll be part of the super but not as the main player.

BULL BY THE HORNS Essential Quality Check Marks: 2 out of 4

DP = 1-6-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80   CD = 0.67 ANZ = 6.20

Mare Profile = 11-2-4-5-10   Speed = 13   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.97   Triads = 17-11-19 (2nd gen Tapit)

• Last Race: 3rd in 1mi 40 Optional Claimer at Tampa.

• Apparent Running Style: Forward Midpack. Another 2nd generation Tapit boy that is leaning a bit more on speed than the stamina side. With Tapit usually dominant, balance is fairly good but the displayed speed side is exceptionally slow. ✔

• Resembles Past Winners: Union Rags, to a degree ✔ (Union rags won 12f Belmont)

• Triple Crown Outlook: Set-up isn't bad, would need to show speed side of balance to a much higher degree though.

Analysis: To Follow

GLOBAL AVIATOR Global Campaign Check Marks: 1 out of 4

DP = 2-5-7-0-0 (14) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.64 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 12-1-3-6-11   Speed = 13   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.90   Triads = 16-10-20

• Last Race: 5th in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream. ✔

• Apparent Running Style: Rear (but minimal competitors on field.) Energy distribution in 2 separate races shows no evidence of strong balance and running style hard to pinpoint with very small fields. Stamina Dominant. Not looking good.

• Resembles Past Winners: None.

• Triple Crown Outlook: Numbers are okay but he needs to pick a side and then he needs to sustain early speed.

Analysis: Rear runner who had it all mixed up in his Holy Bull performance.

SOLITUDE DUDE Yaupon Check Marks: 4 out of 4

DP = 1-0-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00   CD = 1.00 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 7-4-5-8-6   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.92   Triads = 16-17-19

• Last Race: 1st in the 7f Swale Stakes ✔

• Apparent Running Style: Lead. Yes, absolutely running in opposition to numbers and depicting evidence of balanced speed and stamina. Bottom of the speed spectrum, mares stamina dominant & on the lead excelling in energy distribution. ✔

• Resembles Past Winners: Dornoch and Ete Indien ✔ (Dornoch won 10f Belmont)

• Triple Crown Outlook: Board hit configurations. ✔

Analysis: For the way he is built, his running style is seriously good, however, Napoleon will demolish him for that lead and if this guy tries to match those 1st 2 early calls, he'll be going backwards even before Napoleon. He can't do that - he's going to have to step back and hang tight, reserving as much as he can if he is to be competitive late. He did rate 2 lengths behind at Tampa Bay, so we know he can win off the lead. Even better still is if he sits mid and reserves it all til the end, like he did with that late 104 beyer figure. No need to be up there with Napoleon and Jackson and possibly Aviator too. Let them battle it out early. If he doesn't, he'll get caught. He has proven he has late reserved speed, he needs to show it here again. This guy and Jackson Hole are fairly close in many ways and it's just a matter of which one takes the bait and which one doesn't.

LOST MONEY Street Sense Check Marks: 1 out of 4

DP = 3-2-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.80 ANZ = 1.77

Mare Profile = 4-7-5-11-5   Speed = 11   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.77   Triads = 16-23-21

• Last Race: 2nd in 8f Maiden at Gulfstream

• Apparent Running Style: All over the place. Tanked all over the place as well. Not sure if he'll come from the rear or shoot up to press. Could be a product of the 3.00/1.77 split or the stamina dominant mares fighting against the chefs - not blending with the chefs. Hard to get a read on a non-maiden winner and no reason to either. No check marks at all here.

• Resembles Past Winners: Mohaymen

• Triple Crown Outlook: Numbers are half decent historically, but no grandeur in PPs to grab ahold of. ✔

Analysis: I have no idea what the connections are thinking with this placement. They should consideration more workout time as opposed to Derby Preps.

HISTORY (2025 - 2012) Previous 14 Years

Gulfstream Park 8.5f

2025 SOVEREIGNTY Rear Final: 1:43.12 2nd - Florida Derby 1st - Kentucky Derby

Previous Race: 1st - Street Sense at Churchill Downs (Rear) Into Mischief

DP = 2-3-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33   CD = 0.88 ANZ = 7.00

Mare Profile = 3-10-5-7-4   Speed = 13   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.05   Triads = 18-22-16

• Speed Index category from the rear. ✔ Opposite

• Previous Race in Graded Stakes/Prep: Yes ✔

2024 DORNOCH Lead Final: 1:43.64 4th - Bluegrass Stakes 1st - 10f Belmont

Previous Race: 1st - Remsen at Aqueduct (Lead) Good Magic

DP = 2-4-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50   CD = 0.57 ANZ = 2.50

Mare Profile = 7-8-2-9-8   Speed = 15   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.89   Triads = 17-19-19

• Midrange Category on the Lead. Gate to Wire. ✔ Opposite

• The only horse on the list who did not compete in the Florida Derby thereafter. Only managed 4th in the Bluegrass.

• Previous Race in Graded Stakes/Prep: Yes ✔

2023 FORTE Midpack Final: 1:43.12 1st - Florida Derby 2nd - 12f Belmont

Previous Race: 1st - BC Juvenile at Keeneland (Midpack) Violence

DP = 4-4-5-1-0 (14) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.79 ANZ = 4.71

Mare Profile = 11-2-5-1-11   Speed = 13   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.04   Triads = 18-8-17

• Speed Category from Midpack. ✔ Opposite

• Previous Race in Graded Stakes/Prep: Yes ✔

2022 SIMPLIFICATION Rear Midpack Final: 1:44.04 3rd - Florida Derby 4th - Kentucky Derby

Previous Race: 2nd in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream (Rear Midpack) Not This Time

DP = 1-0-9-0-0 (10) DI = 1.22   CD = 0.20 ANZ = 2.11

Mare Profile = 2-11-4-11-3   Speed = 13   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.90   Triads = 17-26-18

• Stamina Category from Mid-pack. ✔ Opposite

• Previous Race in Graded Stakes/Prep: Yes ✔

2021 GREATEST HONOUR Rear Final: 1:44.02 3rd - Florida Derby Did not Run

Previous Race: 1st - Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream (Rear) Tapit

DP = 6-9-12-1-0 (28) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.71 ANZ = 2.27

Mare Profile = 8-6-0-8-8   Speed = 14   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.92   Triads = 14-14-16 (1st gen Tapit)

• Speed Category from the Rear. ✔ Opposite

• Previous Race in Graded Stakes/Prep: Yes ✔

2020 ETE INDIEN Lead Final: 1:43.02 3rd - Florida Derby Did not Run

Previous Race: 2nd - Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream (Stalk) Summer Front

DP = 3-5-6-2-0 (16) DI = 2.20   CD = 0.56 ANZ = 2.20

Mare Profile = 5-7-5-9-2   Speed = 12   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.22   Triads = 17-21-16

• Midrange on the lead. Gate to Wire. ✔ Opposite

• Previous Race in Graded Stakes/Prep: Yes ✔

2019 CODE OF HONOR Midpack Final: 1:43.85 3rd - Florida Derby 2nd - Kentucky Derby

Previous Race: 4th - Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream (Rear -troubled Start) Noble Mission

DP = 3-1-11-7-0 (22) DI = 0.76   CD = 0.00 ANZ = 0.93

Mare Profile = 2-10-2-13-5   Speed = 12   Stamina = 18   Index = 0.64   Triads = 14-25-20

• Heavy Stamina Category from Midpack. ✔ Opposite

• Previous Race in Graded Stakes/Prep: Yes ✔

2018 PROMISES FULFILLED Lead Final: 1:44.17 9th - Florida Derby 15th - Kentucky Derby

Previous Race: 3rd - Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill (Lead) Shackleford

DP = 3-5-2-0-0 (10) DI = 9.00   CD = 1.10 ANZ = 13.00

Mare Profile = 8-3-2-6-8   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.88   Triads = 13-11-16

• Heavy Speed Category on the lead. Gate to Wire. NOT OPPOSITE.

• Previous Race in Graded Stakes/Prep: Yes ✔

2017 GUNNEVERA Rear Final: 1:44.25 3rd - Florida Derby 7th - Kentucky Derby

Previous Race: 2nd - Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream (Rear) Dialed In

DP = 7-8-10-2-3 (30) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.47 ANZ = 2.40

Mare Profile = 7-4-2-7-9   Speed = 11   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.74   Triads = 13-13-18

• Stamina Category from the Rear. NOT OPPOSITE.

• Previous Race in Graded Stakes/Prep: Yes ✔

2016 MOHAYMEN Rear Final: 1:42.04 4th - Florida Derby 4th - Kentucky Derby

Previous Race: 1st - Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream (Stalk) Tapit

DP = 5-9-11-1-0 (26) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.69 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 9-5-2-6-7   Speed = 14   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.14   Triads = 16-13-15 (1st gen Tapit)

• Speed Category from the Rear. ✔ Opposite

• Previous Race in Graded Stakes/Prep: Yes ✔

2015 ITSAKNOCKOUT (1st by DQ) Stalk Final: 1:46.28 4th - Florida Derby 9th - Kentucky Derby

Previous Race: 1st - Allowance at Gulfstream (Stalk) Lemon Drop Kid

DP = 7-0-13-4-0 (24) DI = 1.29   CD = 0.42 ANZ = 1.29

Mare Profile = 10-3-4-7-8   Speed = 13   Stamina = 15   Index = 1.00   Triads = 17-14-19

• Stamina Category from Midpack. ✔  Opposite. The only one who ran opposite and did not place in Derby.

• Previous Race in Graded Stakes/Prep: No

2014 WILDCAT RED Lead Final: 1:41.85 2nd - Florida Derby 18th - Kentucky Derby

Previous Race: 1st - Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream (Stalk) D'Wildcat

DP = 5-2-3-0-0 (10) DI = 5.67   CD = 1.20 ANZ = 8.33

Mare Profile = 10-4-3-8-7   Speed = 14   Stamina = 15   Index = 1.08   Triads = 17-15-18

• Heavy Speed category on the Lead. NOT OPPOSITE.

• Previous Race in Graded Stakes/Prep: Yes ✔

2013 ORB Rear Final: 1:42.24 1st - Florida Derby 1st - Kentucky Derby

Previous Race: 1st - Allowance at Gulfstream (Rear) Malibu Moon

DP = 11-12-15-0-2 (40) DI = 3.21   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 3.21

Mare Profile = 7-2-2-5-10   Speed = 9   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.67   Triads = 11-9-17

• Speed category from the Rear. ✔ Opposite

• Previous Race in Graded Stakes/Prep: No

2012 UNION RAGS Midpack Final: 1:42.68 3rd - Florida Derby 1st - Belmont Stakes

Previous Race: 2nd - BC Juvenile at Churchill (Midpack) Dixie Union

DP = 9-5-14-2-0 (30) DI = 2.33   CD = 0.70 ANZ = 2.33

Mare Profile = 7-5-0-11-7   Speed = 12   Stamina = 18   Index = 0.76   Triads = 12-16-18

• Midrange category up front pressing the pace. ✔ Opposite

• Previous Race in Graded Stakes/Prep: Yes ✔