2026 Derby - Head to Head with Brian, Gerard & Lisa

This article may not be copied, reproduced, translated, or paraphrased, in whole or in part without consent. 4/26/2026 LDM

POST 1: RENEGADE

Brian:  The morning line favorite is on the rail, and that will absolutely give people pause. He’s really never done anything wrong, and he’s a deserving favorite, although not my top choice. He has beautiful speed figures which suggest he should be primed for a top effort. His three triple-digit Late Pace figures are a great sign, but interestingly, he’s never topped 100 on the overall Speed figures. Unless he gets absolutely destroyed coming out of the one hole, I believe Irad will be able to work out a trip, but it is going to be a challenge and require some luck. Definitely on my tickets.

Gerard:  Had a few good battles with Paladin last year and came back this year with two good performances. The 1 hole is obviously a concern but I am more concerned with the fact that it took him nineteen days to get back on the work tab after the Arkansas Derby. If he can work out a trip he should be around at the finish.

Lisa: Repole is one unlucky owner in the big races, isn't he? That dreaded one hole for a closer will allow him to save plenty of early energy but it also could trap him as well. Very nice horse who drew badly but still holds much more muscle than most on this field. Luckily, he has a very hungry jockey who won't allow a post position to keep him out of the race for too long.

POST 2: ALBUS

Brian:  Decent pedigree, but he’s legitimately slow. Last two beyers are 83/84. Nice horse for Grade 3’s at best. Not wasting time or money…Toss.

Gerard:  Got the perfect setup in the Wood as the race totally collapsed. It’s a nice story for the owner to get him in the gate but there are considerably better closers in the field.

Lisa: I do think the horse is better suited for Churchill over Aqueduct, so he could upgrade off his last but that would need to be one hell of a major step up in speed to compete here. This is not his race.

POST 3: INTREPIDO

Brian:  He flashed as a two year old, but just hasn’t looked as good at 3. He seems to be very average for this group of horses. His pedigree is actually not bad, but I can’t get a handle on his running style. He could be on the lead passing the wire the first time, as the two horses inside of him are closers. He will be able to save ground, and he has every right to improve here, but there are too many others I like better. Toss.

Gerard:  Looks like he hasn’t made a big move forward from last year but his TG figures have been improving. Looking at Beyers, he is on a good race/bad race pattern and the Derby should be a good race. He reminds me a little of Storm the Court a few years ago. He seems to be enjoying himself at Churchill and I expect him to run better than many expect.

Lisa: Much better set-up for this horse entering Churchill at 10f than he has ever had. Ground saving trip helps and built correctly as well. He did tango with Plutarch and showed off that stamina he is holding, but he could also get caught up in a wicked pace which defeats that build. Tough call on whether to use or not, that superfecta can get too pricey but the reality is that 4th spot is always up for grabs for a well bred colt and Intrepido does fit that bill.

POST 4: LITMUS TEST

Brian:  Baffert has had nothing good to say about him which is all you need to know. He has definitely underperformed expectations this year, and Bob is adding blinkers back to this horse, which tells me he’ll be sent early to ensure a pace for Bafferts other horse. Easy Toss.

Gerard:  Will get blinkers for the first time in an effort to sharpen his focus. He has been disappointing this year and I think these waters may be a bit too deep.

Lisa: Never liked this horse for the Derby and the fact that Baffert isn't sitting this guy out and waiting for the Preakness is a sure sign of a more tactical use to capture those roses - for a different horse. I'd be very surprised if Litmus Test even makes it to the final turn.

POST 5: RIGHT TO PARTY

Brian:  Stone cold closer, who just like the 3 horses to his inside is absolutely too slow. He passed a bunch of tiring horses in the Wood to claim his spot in the Derby, but he does not belong. Another Easy Toss.

Gerard:  Another who benefited from a swift pace in the Wood. Chris Elliot maintains the mount for his first ride in the Derby. I can see him picking up horses late but probably not enough to factor in the top four. A little surprised that Kenny didn’t go to Brian Hernandez.

Lisa: Way too many negatives sitting with this guy to consider him a player in a Grade One 20-horse field. Hard Pass.

POST 6: COMMANDMENT

Brian:  Trivia question… Who is the only horse in the field with back to back triple digit Beyers, triple digit late pace figs, and triple digit Bris speed figures??? Yes, it’s Commandment. Need I say more? Oh he has also won his last 4 races. All of that said, for some reason I’m not totally feeling him. He’ll be on my tickets for sure, but I think he probably is only 5th or 6th on my list.

Gerard:  The guy shows up every time and has to be considered a player. He ground out some tough wins on a track that usually isn’t kind to closers. It won’t be long before Wathnan Racing wins a Derby.

Lisa: Commandment was not listed in Pool One and I did not see his configurations until Pool 3 in mid-January. Once I saw them, he was placed at #2 for our Top Ten and did not disappoint thereafter. He held steady within the Top 5 from then until now with no deviation for a reason. He is built correctly for this race and that factor - along with a good safe trip - is the most important for this 10f contest.

POST 7: DANON BOURBON

Brian:  Here’s the typical Japanese conundrum… Red Flags: Who has he beat? What are his speed figs? How will he handle left turns for the first time? Green Flags: Races are visually impressive. He’s undefeated. He closes like a champ. He’s already run 9+ furlongs in all 3 races. He’s carried 126 twice already. Ughhhh!!! Yes, I’ll use him. Spoiler alert... He’s the only Japanese horse I’ll use. I like that he has good gate speed, and will likely be in the 2nd flight.

Gerard:  He is unbeaten in three lifetime starts but I have no idea what he has been facing. This is his first time shipping and he now gets to run in the opposite direction. He set a stakes record in his last but the track was wet which probably helped as the Japanese tracks are pretty sandy. I can see him being an underlay as Japanese money enters the betting pools.

Lisa: Love the Maxfield aspect. Not stoked on the Tapit factor. Love his resume and those big fields he beat. Not happy with the mares numbers. Too superstitious to bypass an undefeated Japanese horse with a great post position. Stock rises even higher if we get rain, but will still be using him with whatever weather comes our way.

POST 8: SO HAPPY

Brian:  Tough one here… he ran really well to win the SA Derby, but also think he got a dream set-up. Figures were vastly improved in that race. I love Blame underneath in his pedigree, but I like several better. I could see him finishing as high as 5th or 6th with a perfect trip. Toss, but definitely considered.

Gerard:  I am a great admirer of his sire as he never used race day medications. It would be a great story for trainer and jockey but I feel he may find a few better on the day.

Lisa: His configurations are right on the cusp and the fact that he drew Post 8 leads me to believe he may have had a slight chance of making it all the way but the pattern on his PPs says he drops. I think the exchange of track biases may work against him but I would definitely reconsider this stance if it rains on May 2nd. He would then regain favorable bias conditions.

POST 9: THE PUMA

Brian:  Like him a lot! But I really wish his 4 races were just a little more spaced out. Does he have one more big one in him? Quite possibly. He’s battled all the big boys and has never been worse than 3rd. Looked like he was a winner of the Florida Derby until Commandment got his nose down. Didn’t love the gallop out after that race, but that’s nitpicking. Trainer of Mage knows what he’s doing. There is a lot to like. He’s on my tickets.

Gerard:  He has shown great determination on the Florida circuit this year but he has packed a lot of races into a short period of time. It wouldn’t be a total surprise if he took another step forward for a trainer and jockey who followed a slightly similar journey with Mage.

Lisa: The Puma made his first Futures appearance in Pool Four back in February, closing at 123-1. I gave him 4 out of 5 stars because his configurations as a Tapit boy were killer. Then I forgot about him. He started to make his name known along the way but something remained off for me and he never gained an inch in his initial rating - I kept him the same but still higher than many. His (previous) numbers are still killer for this race so I'll have to bite the bullet and remain in his corner for a nod on my tickets. For me, the Derby is more about breeding for the distance, even if I have to lay out more cash when I don't really want to.

POST 10: WONDER DEAN

Brian:  Here’s what I know.. He’s gonna be flying late. Similar to Danon Bourbon, he’s distance and weight tested. And I feel confident saying he’ll be picking up horses down the lane. Will it be enough, will he have strong enough position early? I don’t think so, but it’s possible he could hit the board. He is probably the horse that if I win early on the card I may sprinkle him in the 4th spot, but more likely he’ll be my last horse cut from the tickets.

Gerard:  He qualified by winning the UAE Derby and collared a loose on the lead, Six Speed. In that race Pyromancer was wearing two sets of blinkers, one of which was to come off as he entered the gate. This didn’t happen so he actually raced in two sets of blinkers. Another horse (Salloom) wore a blindfold entering the gate and the gate crew failed to get it off in time so he lost ground at the start. The first two were pretty leg weary in the last few hundred yards and Pyromancer was actually gaining ground on them inside the last 100 yards. He has been at Churchill for a while and hasn’t been doing a whole lot. He got a TG fig of 1 for his most recent win which puts him in the mix.

Lisa: I like this horse very much. I like his jockey too. I love where he sits within the stamina category and I love his late speed, his running style, his forward mid position and I especially like his determination down a long stretch. I've always been very partial to overseas horses when they exhibit such talent with those killer stamina charts. He's a definite for me.

POST 11: INCREDIBOLT

Brian:  What I like… He’s won twice at Churchill. What I don’t… The one-turn VA Derby and the 88 Beyer he received. I also think the fact that he never took a step in the Holy Bull means that his one prep, 7 weeks ago, is effectively his only race this year. That’s just not gonna do it. Toss.

Gerard:  Made his 3 year old debut in the Holy Bull which was a weak effort. He then rebounded with a win in a strangely run Virginia Derby. He is coming in off a seven week layoff and it is hard to believe he got enough conditioning in those two efforts to be competitive here.

Lisa: Great early campaign hits the highest among this field when compared to the historical two-year-old resumes of the past Derby winners - but this is simply not enough to consider along side that one weird Virginia Derby race. I just can't do it.

POST 12: CHIEF WALLABEE

Brian:  He’s the buzz horse. He’s looked great at Churchill, and he’s had three really strong races this year, despite only winning his maiden. Mott and Alvarado are looking to repeat, and they have a legitimate chance. If he can get good position early, I think he’s as likely as any to hit the board. I trust Bill Mott, and he seems pretty confident.

Gerard:  He wasn’t disgraced in his Florida Derby but his reluctance to split horses in the Florida Derby is a concern. I don’t know if the blinkers can fix that or if it is the Pulpit hot blood. The morning line odds seem a little skinny to me.

Lisa: The Puma and The Chief feel like the exact same horse to me. Both unraced at two - both debuted in the same maiden down at Gulfstream and filled out the Exacta. Both 2nd generation Tapit colts. Both exchanging running styles along the way. For the Derby, roll the dice and pick one, because if you like one, the other must go hand in hand. Unfortunately, your ticket cost rises.

POST 13: SILENT TACTIC

Brian:  Super steady horse who has contested all 4 races at Oaklawn this year. He’ll likely be somewhere in the middle of the pack early and he’ll come with his run. He has a style, and I can’t see that changing. Problem is there are several who have better tactical speed, and several others who have better closing kicks. I just don’t see a scenario where he’s good enough or lucky enough to come out on top. 4th …sure, why not? But I have to take a stand against here.

Gerard:  He has raced four times this year and is nothing but consistent. He was made to look pretty ordinary by Renegade in the Arkansas Derby but to be fair, it looked like Torres moved too soon. He regressed slightly on TG going from a 2 to a 4 but there was talk that they were treating a slight foot bruise.

Lisa: I put Silent Tactic in that same triplet basket with the Puma and The Chief but I fall very short of choosing 4 Tapits (with Danon) in the Kentucky Derby for a superfecta hit. Between the four, I'll pass here.

POST 14: POTENTE

Brian:  Wow! 57 and change final breeze! This is probably a “tell” one way or the other. He’s very lightly raced, but has shown up every time. Found himself out front in the SA Derby, and I don’t think that’s where he wants to be, or where he’ll find himself on Saturday. He is a Baffert, so grain of salt with everything, but he would not surprise me with just about any result. If he is just behind the leaders somewhere between 4th and 8th by the wire the first time, then I think he has a real chance. Him, Emerging Market, and Further Ado probably all want to occupy the same space, and make the same move. I’ll be using him across the board.

Gerard:  He really has done nothing wrong this year. Looked good in the San Felipe but inherited the lead in the Santa Anita Derby when his stablemate blew the break. He put Robusta away but couldn’t withstand the late run of Smile Happy. He was very quick in his final workout at Churchill. Hernandez gets the mount for a trainer who goes through jockeys like Elizabeth Taylor went through husbands.

Lisa: There is a very odd thing that happens here at the DHC pretty much every year that we have had our website. An article will be posted very early on about a two year old just hitting the track. I recall Code of Honor, Country House, City of Troy, Dornoch, to name a few. These articles were based on their spectacular potential through their breeding - without the noise. This year, there were exactly two spotlight articles posted for two-year old colts, one before his debut and one directly after his killer maiden. Potente was one and Further Ado was the other. Yes, I'm sticking like glue to both of them.

POST 15: EMERGING MARKET

Brian:  Looks like an absolute beast! Plenty of people won’t use him because of the 2 start thing, but they were both tough races, and he is battle tested. He’s training great at Churchill, and like Bill Mott, I trust Chad Brown to place and prepare his horses. Prat has been in the $ something like 6 of 8 Derby rides, so have to like that as well. He and Potente are tough to separate for me.

Gerard:  Normally if I saw a horse coming into the Derby with just two lifetime starts I would toss him. Chad Brown had opportunities to enter both Cloud Computing and Early Voting but choose to wait for the Preakness. He has had absolutely no hesitation in entering Emerging Market and has constantly stressed how mature and professional the horse is. The post position is horrible, so Prat will have to protect him at the break.

Lisa: Have I expressed how much I absolutely despise his post position??!! If a miracle happens and this colt doesn't get slammed by Six Speed and/or Pavlovian out of the gate, this lightly raced classy colt will be running with the best of them. Flavien Prat stood by his commitment for a reason. This guy is built like a beast for this race and Chad knows it.

POST 16: PAVLOVIAN

Brian:  Likely pace presence. Ran surprisingly well in LA Derby, but this is a tall order. Respect Doug O’Neill, but this seems like too much. Beyers are also too slow. Toss

Gerard:  Finished a game second in the Louisiana Derby but I think the track carried him a long way that day. Connections say they want the lead so it could get pretty contentious up front. He already has ten starts under his belt and seems to be thriving on racing.

Lisa: Not a fan of six consecutive races at the 4.5f to 7f distance. What was the point of that? The foundation is so wacky for a Derby horse. Those backwards configurations found from the mare's line doesn't help matters either. Toss for me.

POST 17: SIX SPEED

Brian:  Took them a long way in the UAE Derby, but think he’s gonna be a pace casualty. Toss

Gerard:  He couldn’t hold an uncontested lead in the UAE Derby so I can’t see him doing much better here. He has raced exclusively at Meyden and will face much stiffer competition here. I am sure he will have a big say in the outcome as Hernandez will try to get him to the rail. It will be interesting to see how many he wipes out trying to get there.

Lisa: Same connections as Summer is Tomorrow from 2022 vows "If they go fast (on the lead) then we'll go faster." In the decades that I have been enamored with this sport and these horses, I have never wished for a late scratch on any horse at any time - except now. I don't like their plan from Post 17 and I certainly don't like its possible affects on those sitting within the path. This colt's mare's numbers are just as bad as Pavlovian's and give absolutely no favor for a gate to wire attempt at 10f at Churchill Downs from Post 17 - from an overseas invader no less. Even worse potential mess out of the gate if it rains.

POST 18: FURTHER ADO

Brian:  Most likely winner. He’s the fastest on figs, and training like a beast. His pedigree is beautiful, and he drew perfectly. I see him sitting either the I’ll Have Another or American Pharoah trips, depending on pace. I think his biggest risk is sitting too close to a hot pace, but luckily he has Johnny V aboard who you would assume will measure that out. I’ll have him across the board.

Gerard:  The outside draw will suit him and he should be able to work out a trip from here sitting behind Pavlovian and Six Speed. If he runs back to either of his Keeneland races he wins.

Lisa: Simply stated... I love this horse. The debut at Keeneland along with his pedigree told us everything we needed to know about his potential. Thrilled with his post, thrilled with his works and feel very confident that he is 100% fit. Johnny V is the gold coin in his pocket. They make a Royal Flush for Churchill Downs.

POST 19: GOLDEN TEMPO

Brian:  Gonna be in dead last for quite a while. Never off the board in 4 starts, and improving with every race. I think he’s very live to be flying late, and to pick up the pieces. I just don’t think he’s likely to win. I’ll probably use him only on the bottom of the Super, but I’ll be pulling for him and his 30-1 odds to fill it out.

Gerard:  Has been consistently picking up points on the Fairground circuit and his recent third in the Louisiana Derby is better than it looks. The pedigree is beautiful for the distance and he will be running at the end.

Lisa: Not so sure about the speedy workouts so close to the Derby for a bon-a-fide closer, which is sending mixed signals. Gate assignment keeps him safe while others in his tier may not find the same. Depending on the final cost of the ticket, if there is room for one more, it would be him but I've kinda softened a bit along the way.

POST 20: FULLEFFORT

Brian:  A lot of people really like him and I do too. The Jeff Ruby is becoming a key race with Two Phil’s, Rich Strike, and Final Gambit, all showing up in the last 4 years. He seems to be handling the dirt beautifully, but he will need to get faster on figs. He’ll also need to figure out how to save ground coming from the outside, but I think he has a shot. Won’t use him on top, but board hit material for me.

Gerard:  Qualified via the Ruby Steaks and seems to be thriving at Churchill. He has never raced on dirt but his workouts indicate that it shouldn’t be a problem. The post position is fine as Tyler should be able to tuck him in and avoid any compression problems.

Lisa: Going back to historical stats with the resumes of the 2 year old campaigns with the past 21 Derby winners, one stat stands out to me that I have not forgotten. Over half of them competed on AWS and/or turf at two. Previous winners include: Rich Strike, Country House, American Pharoah, California Chrome, I'll Have Another, Animal Kingdom, Mine That Bird, Big Brown, Street Sense and Barbaro. One of the reasons why I liked Plutarch so much back then. Now, 3 horses hit that stat - Wonder Dean (who I am using) Silent Tactic (who I am not using) and Fulleffort - who I am definitely using. Post 20 hurts but his chef numbers say yes and that stat also says yes. Based on what Six Speed may do gunning out of the gate and if he secures that lead, at least Fulleffort will remain unscathed with a solid stamina foundation under his belt. I'll take a shot.

BRIAN

1st - Further Ado - Renegade

2nd - Potente - Emerging Market

3rd - Chief Wallabee - Commandment

4th - Golden Tempo - Fulleffort

Longshot: Danon Bourbon

GERARD

1st - Further Ado - Potente

2nd - Fulleffort - Golden Tempo

3rd - Renegade - Commandment

4th - Emerging Market - Wonder Dean

Longshot: Intrepido

LISA

1st - Further Ado - Potente

2nd - Renegade - Emerging Market

3rd - Fulleffort - Commandment

4th - Wonder Dean - Danon Bourbon

Longshot: Chief Wallabee