The Preakness Stakes was first run back in 1873 at a distance of 12f. It was named after a 3 year old colt named Preakness, who won the Dinner Party Stakes on the day that Pimlico first opened its doors back on October 25th, 1870.

The long history of the race has produced winners who still remain significant fixtures in the present day world of horse-racing. Sir Barton, Man o'War, Whirlaway. War Admiral, Citation, Carry Back, Damascus, Seattle Slew and Affirmed, just to name a few. Of course, you can't have a Preakness without mentioning Secretariat as well.

It is hard to compare the names from the days of old to present, however, we can only guess how our competitors will be viewed in the far future. We have no idea how far breeding will evolve with speed, quite possibly turning this once 12f race, to the 9.5f that it is today and possibly turning to only 8f in 100 years from now. That is, if horse racing is even still around in the year 3025.

Post 1 GOAL ORIENTED Bob Baffert Last Race: 1st in an 8.5f OAC, sloppy sealed

DP = 1-0-9-0-0 (10) DI = 1.22   CD = 0.20 Sire: Not This Time

Mares = 4-11-3-14-0   Speed = 15   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.29   Triads = 18-28-17

Stamina on the Lead. M/L = 6-1

RPR = N/A May 11th Workout - Churchill 4f 47.60 4/35

It may be a foregone conclusion that Baffert will send Prat to the lead coming out of the one hole in the same fashion as Bull in the Derby. What is striking though is that Goal Oriented did find success traveling way off the pace in his maiden, allowing the lead, Sierra Silver to lose energy with a 45.06 second call. This horse has multiple styles, so the question is does Baffert allow American Promise and Clever Again to duke it out on the lead in hopes of a very heightened pace where they beat each other down? Does he go with a different strategy this time, which would allow Goal Oriented to save ground along the rail, remain unhurried, taking his best shot against Sandman and Journalism who will be holding all the energy reserves for the final plunge. Afterall, when Goal Oriented won in high fashion last out, it was on a sloppy track, which could have forced the horse to run with the speed of "Not This Time" in his back pocket as opposed to the rear running style most likely influenced by the "Afleet Alex" line. This horse is a very well built, multi-dimensional, stamina driven horse on the lead or speed coming late. A strong bias either way, as well as a wet or dry track does have this horse covered from all angles. It would be a matter of Baffert and Prat reading the bias of the day and making their strategy call as close to the bell as possible. If they read that bias and strike accordingly, they have themselves a horse who can adapt from all sides. If they do that, they wouldn't simply have a beast for the race, they would have a Colossus for this race. He is the only entry who can acclimate if the bias demands it. His huge obstacle becomes Clever Again on the lead, regardless of the style they ultimately decide upon.

Post 2 JOURNALISM Mike McCarthy Last Race: 2nd in 10f Kentucky Derby, sloppy sealed

DP = 4-5-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57   CD = 0.81 Sire: Curlin

Mares = 6-5-4-7-7   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.84   Triads = 15-16-18

Midpack, Balanced, Late burst. M/L = 8-5

RPR = 119 Kentucky Derby 121 Santa Anita Derby

With the the quick turnaround, the bias uncertainty and competing against fresh competitors, Journalism's high quality and talent may not justify the odds in this race. While he is actually built much better for this distance, he will not have the added bonus that he saw in the Derby; a speed-driven lead tier that could easily disintegrate attempting the longer 10f distance. This is only 9.5f and the difference between how Goal Oriented (index 1.22) and Clever Again (index .90) are built (major stamina on the lead) and how Neoequos (index 7.00) and Citizen Bull (index 9.00) were built (extreme speed on the lead) does not hand any advantage to Journalism this time around. He is the deserving favorite but the fluctuation of the breeding between the leads between both races is highly exaggerated. It goes from one extreme to the other. Goal Oriented and Clever Again will be traveling much shorter, with higher speed and with configurations that put them in the stamina category. Now, if American Promise happens to take over the lead, Journalism would have to hope that he doesn't pull a VA Derby move. Either way, Journalism has much more disadvantage in this race than he did in the Kentucky Derby, which could make him vulnerable against these particular players at this distance. He is proven to be the highest quality horse on the field but a shot against the favorite in order to make a profit does seem a reasonable play to attempt with the changing atmosphere of how his competition is built this time around.

Post 3 AMERICAN PROMISE D. Wayne Lukas Last Race: 16th in the 10f Kentucky Derby, sloppy sealed

DP = 2-6-6-0-0 (14) DI = 3.67   CD = 0.71 Sire: Justify

Mares = 10-2-6-5-8   Speed = 12   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.04   Triads = 18-13-19

Speed on the Lead. M/L = 15-1

RPR = 45 Kentucky Derby 114 Virginia Derby

Granted, the horse had a horrific trip in the Derby, getting banged and bruised at every turn, however, he also had 6 flops in his short career with no excuses. This horse was given a dream scenario in the VA Derby and he performed like a Champ because of it. While he gave us an exceptional performance in Virginia which showed that he does have it in him to fly with his stellar breeding, his inconsistency is the major problem facing us in Pimlico. Out of all of the competitors on this field, AP is the biggest roll of the dice. Does the beast from the VA Derby show up again, or does his inferior Past Performance sheet follow him to Maryland? With the quality, speed and determination that is much more consistent among his foes, a stand would have to be made one way or the other here. D. Wayne had Seize the Grey last year who also held a fairly lackluster past performance sheet as well, showing major prowess only in the Pat Day Mile prior to the Preakness. He has the same with AP, who really only showed competitiveness in the solo VA Derby. That's a 50-50 proposition.

Post 4 HEART OF HONOR Jamie Osborne Last Race: 2nd in the UAE Derby, clear fast

DP = 2-2-6-0-0 (10) DI = 2.33   CD = 0.60 Sire: Honor A.P.

Mares = 12-2-4-2-9   Speed = 14   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.25   Triads = 18-8-15

Midpack, balanced, Late burst M/L = 12-1

RPR = 107 UAE Derby

Fantastic sire, high class connections, and a world traveler, Heart of Honor attempts to turn his "second-itis" affliction around in a Triple Crown Race after flying, a quarantine and with a novice jockey. This is not the best scenario for Osborne and I believe he understands that fully but the attempt is highly commendable. The only saving grace here is that this horse is filled to the brim with determination late in the race, and he will be attempting to match Journalism at basically the same time. His only hope is that the quick turn-around for his opponent takes its toll which is a tall order, but not impossible. He will also have Sandman who will basically be in the same boat as Journalism. There are alot of "ifs" with this guy and he needs to rely heavily on factors that are out of his control. The one thing that truly stands out here is how much this team wants this horse to succeed and that conviction at least deserves some respect if playing exotics. It would be marvelous to see this horse exceed his last race in Dubai, making A.P Indy, Honor Code and Honor A.P. proud. I'll be in his corner every step of the way, but he is harboring plenty of adversity to make a win of it. But how magnificent would it be if they actually did it?!

Post 5 PAY BILLY Michael Gorham Last Race: 1st in the 9f Federico Tesio Stakes, cloudy, fast

DP = 6-7-5-0-0 (18) DI = 6.20   CD = 1.06 Sire: Improbable

Mares = 6-6-3-8-6   Speed = 12   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.91   Triads = 15-17-17

Speed, Lead Tier M/L = 20-1

RPR = N/A May 8th Workout - Delaware Park 4f 49.00 10/34

The track was listed as "fast" in the Federico Stakes and that race produced a pedestrian 24.23 in the first call, 48.60 in the second call, and by the 3rd call at only 1.13.38 - the lead started to pedal backwards. Pay Billy completely capitalized off of a very slow race with no leads left holding any energy. A very sub-par edition of the Federico Tesio Stakes, with over 5 seconds under the track record. That sure is alot of lengths in the black. He has alot of posted wins from Laurel Park but the class under those wins are far removed from this crew.

Post 6 RIVER THAMES Todd Pletcher Last Race: 3rd in the 9f Blue Grass Stakes, clear fast

DP = 2-7-3-0-0 (12) DI = 7.00   CD = 0.92 Sire: Maclean's Music

Mares = 9-4-4-4-8   Speed = 13   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.08   Triads = 17-12-16

Speed, Stalking the lead M/L = 9-2

RPR = 115 Blue Grass Stakes May 10th Workout - Belmont Park 4f 48.25 9/37

The 9.5f distance is right on the cusp of his wheelhouse. His energy is complete early and stalking and he should easily be in the mix and competitive with the top tier all the way through until his 7.00 index kicks in. This is when breeding takes a stand and it creeps up while trying to stalk a faster pace against Grade One winners. In both the Blue Grass (9f) and the Fountain of Youth (8.5f) River Thames was able to defend his position stalking but he was unable to find the reserves to move out of that position late in the game. Now with 3/16th more to run, he would either have to drop further off the pace, saving ground and energy to compete late or he would have to make a huge jump from the Blue Grass with extra stamina. The upgrade from his 7.00 index to an ANZ figure of 8.33 does not aid the latter. Is it enough to grab a piece, sure, but he has 6 other competitors on this field who have proven much more reserves in the tank after the final turn.

Post 7 SANDMAN Mark Casse Last Race: 7th in the Kentucky Derby, sloppy sealed

DP = 6-15-13-2-0 (36) DI = 3.24   CD = 0.69 Sire: Tapit

Mares = 8-5-1-7-8   Speed = 13   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.92   Triads = 14-13-16 (Tapit)

Speed coming from the Rear M/L = 4-1

RPR = 97 Kentucky Derby 116 Arkansas Derby

This horse has no excuses for the poor performance at Churchill Downs. He was gated in post 18, far removed from the Bumper Cars in the left gate. His breeding was excellent for the bias and his running style coincided perfectly with what transpired in Louisville. While he did move up from 18th to 7th across the wire, that is still highly sub-par for only facing a few bumps. He was out-kicked even without utilizing too much early and too much mid-race. There wasn't much remaining late. The possibility that he bypasses what he inherited for favor on a sloppy track is highly possible and if that is the case, then we could assume a toss for the Derby. This leads us to consider the Arkansas Derby, a 9f race that he won where Baffert pulled the suicidal pace for Cornucopian and handed the race to the rear. That race was run in 45.21 at the half. A huge gift for Sandman, who realistically did not light the world on fire with his late run but still managed a 2.5 length victory over Publisher. The late run was boring and not as explosive as it could have been. Even if he gets that type of advantaged pace again, he is far removed from the late fireworks of a couple others here.

Post 8 CLEVER AGAIN Steve Asmussen Last Race: 1st in the 8f Hot Springs Stakes, clear fast

DP = 2-3-9-6-0 (20) DI = 0.90   CD = 0.05 Sire: American Pharoah

Mares = 5-5-4-12-4   Speed = 10   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.79   Triads = 14-21-20

Stamina on the Lead. M/L = 5-1

RPR = 116 Hot Springs Stakes May 12th Workout - Churchill Downs 4f 50.40 32/40

Seriously gorgeous configurations on the lead. 2nd generation Galileo, 3rd generation Urban Sea, and 4th generation Miswaki. This horse not only has the highest quality chart within the group, but his style of running and the displayed speed that goes with it is flawless. There are two stamina horses who want to take charge, Goal Oriented and this guy. Both with competitive speed and both with the raw endurance to go gate to wire at a faster pace. This guy is equipped with more stamina than his peer plus his last impressive gate to wire win was not aided by the weather, whereby the excess speed could be second-guessed. On a clear fast track, this guy is holding everything he needs to win this race. If we get rain, he will forfeit the high advantage he holds over this group. It boils down to two things for Asmussen this year; a clean track and a tired Journalism. If he gets that then he is the one to catch at Pimlico.

Post 9 GOSGER Brendan Walsh Last Races: 1st in the 8.5f Lexington Stakes, clear fast

DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33   CD = 0.75 Sire: Nyquist

Mares = 9-3-4-7-7   Speed = 12   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.00   Triads = 16-14-18

Speed, Lead Tier M/L = 20-1

RPR = N/A May 10th Workout - Keeneland 5f 1:00.60 1/14 bullet

He did such a commendable job in the Lexington, but he would have had to take a major upgrade in his maturity over the last 22 days to make a run for it here. Nice horse but not in the same league at this time.