9f Haskell Stakes Monmouth Park

No surprises with this race.

The eight contenders are grouped together within their respective categories and unfortunately, there is no sane path to profit other than going with straight bets.

It is almost a complete waste of time to even do a formal analysis with this race this year. There are no "longshots" to even consider as plausible contenders. The disadvantages that they hold are so glaringly obvious. With that said, this analysis will be a little different and geared more towards SOLID STRAIGHT BETTING.

THE MONSTER ON THE FIELD TO WIN:

1. Journalism

DP = 4-5-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57   CD = 0.81

Mares = 6-5-4-7-7   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.84   Triads = 15-16-18 (Freak)

Dropping down in distance from his last three monumental races only gives him even more advantage for this race. As far as his configurations go, they are geared more towards the 9f than the 10f - and as evidence shows, he was beaten twice at the 10f distance - but easily slammed the 9.5f Preakness and the 9f Santa Anita Derby. He's in his element here, on this track, at this distance. No need to overexert or push the point, Lucky for him, Sovereignty is sitting this one out, but even so, the 9f distance would have still given him a leg up.

MOST LIKELY EXACTA:

1. Journalism

2. Goal Oriented

DP = 1-0-9-0-0 (10) DI = 1.22   CD = 0.20

Mares = 4-11-3-14-0   Speed = 15   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.29   Triads = 18-28-17

The choice between Gosger, Burnham Square and Goal Oriented for the second place nod boiled down to blind faith between the speed driven configurations at 7.80 for Burnham and 4.33 Gosger, as opposed to the 1.22 stamina driven numbers for Goal Oriented. While Gosger and Goal Oriented do align with their balance almost evenly, they are coming from two different sides. Gosger's speedy 4.33 index with Nyquist on top is offset with Tapit's stamina underneath. Goal Oriented stamina driven 1.22 through Giant's Causeway is highly complimented by the additional speedy jets from Not This Time. In that sense, the two could easily be interchangeable as worthy competitors against Journalism but a stand must be taken due to the odds. Burnham Square has the speed associated with that late running style that may be very advantageous in the long run. What stands out with Goal Oriented is basically one small simple detail - he was bumped harshly in the Preakness, forcing him to check and lose momentum. This horse was entered into a Grade 1 Triple Crown race after only one short maiden and an Optional Claiming race and still put in a very nice effort against the unfortunate hit. Those two early races produced exceptional figures for a 1.22 horse. In addition, Baffert loves to win this race and that stamina driven 1.22 index at Monmouth Park coupled with the killer speed of Not This Time is an inherited combination that one could easily hang their hat on for this particular race. His mare line is right on target.

MOST LIKELY TRIFECTA:

1. Journalism

2. Goal Oriented

   
   

3. Burnham Square

DP = 4-13-5-0-0 (22) DI = 7.80   CD = 0.95

Mares = 6-7-3-5-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.10   Triads = 16-15-14

It would have seemed reasonable to place Gosger in the 3rd spot based on past performances and configurations but the strategy for the 3rd place nod will revert to running style and inbred speed. His numbers are not the best as they relate to the history of the Haskell, but rest assured, they are ample enough to grab his piece underneath. A horse could come in 6 lengths behind the winner and still hit that tote. The 9f distance is Burnham Square's optimum and if it weren't for Gosger's sub-par Beyer figures in the lead up to the Preakness, this stance may have gone differently. The fact that Burnham is a highly competitive rear runner should keep him traveling well and unhurried and Hernandez simply needs to unleash him at the proper time. The pace and scenario of the lead tier players may give Burnham Square just the right atmosphere to come running on late with his 7.80 index still intact as he approaches the final turn, banking on Gosger making another "grudgingly" late run of it. There is always the possibility that Goal Oriented gets caught up in a tangle with the Parx runner, Kentucky Outlaw, and if that is the case, Burnham Square's stock rises even further. There was a huge struggle between Goal Oriented and Burnham for the 2nd place nod based on pace but the breeding of Goal Oriented prevailed.

MOST LIKELY TO FILL OUT BOTTOM OF SUPERFECTA:

4. Gosger

DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33   CD = 0.75

Mares = 9-3-4-7-7   Speed = 12   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.00   Triads = 16-14-18

OR

4. Kentucky Outlaw

DP = 2-3-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33   CD = 0.88

Mares = 6-3-7-10-3   Speed = 9   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.96   Triads = 16-20-20

While it is reasonable to say that Gosger and Burnham Square are basically sitting nose to nose in that gate as far as hitting underneath on the tote, a stand needs to be taken based on the low odds of all concerned. Take your pick either way. As far as filling out the super, this has a bit more to do with the eventual odds and the breeding. Kentucky Outlaw is built very well for this race, better configurations than Gosger, however, he does have a slight bothersome kink. He is a product of PARX race track. He trains exclusively at Parx. This caters to his chefs inheritance, that 4.33 index, and this is the obvious basis for his extreme "early" speed. This is what his training has forced upon him to favor on that speedy bias and he will take that training to Monmouth with him. (He will have an affect on the lead tier and this is another reason why I believe Burnham Square's late running style deserves the 3rd place nod over Gosger.) His mare's line is killer for Monmouth, but there is a very strong possibly that the horse has no idea that it is even there. Somebody is coming in 4th place regardless of how many lengths behind, and based on what is left of the field, it must be one or the other for the 2 different reasons. Kentucky Outlaw has beautiful configurations but they are possibly compromised because of Parx. Gosger hit beautiful figures in the Preakness and is dropping down in distance for this race. To be honest, I don't really see any justification for a Superfecta bet in this race this year regardless, but a straight bet on top with 2 in the 4th spot could produce nice results.

NOTHING SHORT OF A MIRACLE WOULD AID THEIR CAUSE:

Bracket Buster

DP = 1-4-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.60

Mares = 7-3-5-7-7   Speed = 10   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.85   Triads = 15-15-19

National Law

DP = 1-4-11-0-0 (16) DI = 1.91   CD = 0.38

Mares = 6-9-4-8-3   Speed = 15   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.39   Triads = 19-21-15 (2nd gen Tapit)

Wildncrazynight

DP = 0-1-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.50

Mares = 4-4-5-8-2   Speed = 8   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.00   Triads = 13-17-15