This article may not be copied, reproduced, translated, or paraphrased, in whole or in part without consent. 4/30/2025 LDM

Opening From Gerard: "Another year, another edition of the chaotic cavalry charge that is the Kentucky Derby. On paper it looks like we could see a fast pace with the majority of the speed on the inside. Inevitably, there will be many bad trips (as there are every year) but that won’t stop us from taking a stab at a very intriguing race. My two cents for this year’s Derby is as follows."

CITIZEN BULL

Brian:  It’s no secret he’s going! Post 1, Blinkers back on, there is no choice. I believe that will be his undoing. If he makes the lead, it’s going to require 22 flat and 46 flat at best. The only time he came close to that was in the Del Mar Futurity, and he spit the bit. The only other time he was required to run a 1st Call north of 90 was the SA Derby, and it proved too much. If he goes, which I expect, he’s gonna be flat in the stretch. If he misses the break, he’s toast. I don’t see it either way. TOSS!!!! And yes, I’m happy to say it.

Gerard:  The draw pretty much dictates that he has to go. He looked a “short” horse in the Santa Anita Derby and should improve from that performance. He will take them a long way and could still be hanging around in the stretch. He is still the two-year-old champion and as the “other Baffert” deserves respect.

Lisa: Baffert is shrewd. He wants this win. Actually, he wants the exacta. He can't use the rabbit strategy this time around with two forward runners and he won't sacrifice this horse for any horse running behind Rodriguez. Baffert is the king of Gate to Wire, especially in this race, and he plans on doing it again. Somehow, he always figures out the best pace to do it.

NEOEQUOS

Brian:  Decent pedigree.. I always like seeing Birdstone, but for a confirmed pace horse, he’s just not real fast. Last two beyers are 89/91. His Late Pace figs are in the 80’s. Nice horse for Grade 3’s at best. Toss.

Gerard:  Has run some nice races in Florida, but has been collared in the stretch of the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. Saffie Joseph is not as effective away from Gulfstream and it is hard to see this guy hanging on as the distance gets longer.

Lisa: I think he'd gain some aid on a wet track but that relies on a bulk of the stamina horses unable to run properly on it. I think we may see this horse making some noise in the future, but 10f may not be his forte.

FINAL GAMBIT

Brian:  I’m a big fan of Not This Time! That said this guy is polarizing for a lot of reasons. 1st time dirt? Massive jump in speed figs.. due for bounce? Stuck on inside, and not appreciating kickback? All are valid. Still, he has the fastest Late pace fig in the field… If it’s a meltdown, and he can work to the outside on the backstretch, he could be coming. Use underneath.

Gerard:  His Ruby performance was superb and the main question now is if he can transfer that to dirt. He will probably get bumped coming out of the gate (as he did in the Ruby), but should be able to work out a ground saving trip from there. I expect to see him motoring down the stretch.

Lisa: It seems to reason that he's looking great for the Derby but the fact remains, he's a 2.20 index horse with Tapit. It never works. 100% 12f Belmont Stakes numbers. Knowing this year after year, I still fall for one and always get burned. I'm not too sure that I want to get burned again, but I do love that Not This Time speed aspect as well, Brian. And so, the ticket cost rises.

RODRIGUEZ

Brian:  Great pedigree, as has been discussed. Also going to be part of the early pace, at least per Mike Smith. Much has been discussed about how when asked to rate, he has not performed his best. If he doesn’t rate in here, he’s very much at risk of collapsing with the other pace… What to do? I think I use him defensively in here, but he is gonna feel the heat from the closers. Use underneath.

Gerard:  His Wood Memorial effort was excellent and might have given him the confidence boost he needed. Mike Smith could sit a nice trip here and I expect to see him around at the end.

Lisa: Most view this guy as a typical Baffert lead speedster because of that stellar Wood Memorial win. But he is not. He is built in the same manner as horses like Dornoch, Two Phils, Authentic, Smarty Jones, War Emblem, etc. who are stamina horses who happen to run up front. Positioning is at a major advantage for a horse built like that. Historically correct configurations. He needs the proper trip and can not get caught up using the wrong side of his inheritance too early. That type of running caused the demise of his equally stamina-dominant barn-mate Getaway Car. If he runs off the pace, he's in it to win it.

AMERICAN PROMISE

Brian:  More pace! He has actually run faster first calls, consistently, than anyone else in the race. Don’t be surprised at all if he is 1st , 2nd , 3rd heading into the first turn. Last year, Lucas horses Just Steel and Seize the Grey gunned for the lead in the Derby and Preakness respectively, and I expect the same here. I really like his pedigree, and I like that he’s been 9F twice. He’s very battle tested, and with the proper track bias, he could cruise like in the VA Derby. That said, he’s on the bubble for me, as I expect the pace horses to be compromised.

Gerard:  Lukas is not afraid to run his horses into racing condition and this guy certainly came to life in his last start. The layoff is a slight concern, but he seems to be training well.

Lisa: Very fast or wet track will serve him well. But we are all looking at his sire Justify as opposed to recognizing the 2nd generation Tapit factor, which as we all know, is harsh for a win. That said, the combination is solid with a 3.67 index and he will most likely get his best shot with his preferred slick bias on Saturday.

ADMIRE DAYTONA

Brian:  I was originally going to take a stand against, but he’s growing on me. He has the lowest dosage in the field. He’s run 9.5F already, one of only 3 who can say that. He’s won from multiple track positions and in big fields. And Japan has been threatening, even the horses that have been deemed 2nd tier. I have to respect, and will likely use underneath.

Gerard:  He showed tenacity holding on in the UAE Derby and I expect him to be up close again here. He has been beaten twice by Luxor Café and will be chased down by that one again, as well as some quality US closers.

Lisa: I think this guy is a player and he refuses to give up. He wants to win. He demonstrated that drive not just in the UAE, but when he went toe to toe with Luxor in a track-record race against 16 competitors. Remember, the horse only had a 2 week break between a major win and the Hyacinth where he had a different jockey as well. The big guy, Christophe Lemaire, believes in this horse to take the trip. He wants a Derby win as well. The amount of determination sitting in Post 6 is off the charts. He's set with the distance which means he'll be set in my Superfecta. Joined at the hip with Luxor

LUXOR CAFE

Brian:  Four race winning streak. 9f twice. Japan. Visually quick turn of foot. Beat Admire Daytona twice. There is a lot to like. Kickback could be an issue, but willing to assume he’ll handle. I have to respect, and will likely use underneath.

Gerard:  Has pretty much answered all of the questions he has been asked this year and could be primed for another big effort. The ship from Japan and the inside post position are a concern, but I expect Moreira to put him in position where he has a shot. Interesting that he will carry two pounds less than his last race.

Lisa: Against the grain of everything that is preached on this website and all of the articles for the past 7 years concerning historically correct figures for this race, I simply don't care when it comes to this guy. If he doesn't make a run, I'll know why. If he does run, it'll be because of that killer chart. I'm set both ways. I love this horse, everything about him...except for those mares numbers. Bring it on Big Guy, please defy those numbers!

JOURNALISM

Brian:  I’m going to keep this simple. He’s a Single to Win for me. That’s it. He’s the best horse, with the best style, and the best set up. It’s chalky, but I’ll get creative underneath. He could lose, but 9 out of 10 times, I think he wins.

Gerard:  He has handled everything thrown at him so far making some of Baffert’s horses look mediocre along the way. The race riding in the Santa Anita Derby may have helped Rispoli more than the horse.

Lisa: I feel bad saying it but I'm not as enamored as I think I should be with this horse. I can't put my finger on it. He has performed perfectly along the way, he looks beautiful, and he has a fantastic past performance sheet. All of that must take precedence over the configurations this year because we only have one set that is perfect and it takes 4 horses to complete a super. Maybe its just my adversity to backing a favorite in the Derby, but I have no other option but to do just that.

BURNHAM SQUARE

Brian:  Pedigree screams Miler. He really interesting because his whole pedigree leans to speed, but he runs as a closer, and has never missed the Super in six career races. Very consistent, and seems to be improving. Trainer says he can’t get him tired, and he’s got a rail skimming jockey on his back. He doesn’t have the quickest move, but he’s relentless. I’m on the fence, but leaning toward using him.

Gerard:  Visually he looks the part, but I think he is effective up to 9F. He does not seem to like kickback so could find it tough going. He showed great determination getting up in the Bluegrass, but everyone was bunched together at the end.

Lisa: Very cool horse but even though we are forced to overlook the configurations of 19 players this year, Burnham's are so far out in left field that a firm stand against has to be made.

GRANDE

Brian:  Beautiful pedigree, Curlin out of War Front. 28 points, 2nd highest in field. 6 points Speed to Stamina from the Mares. Two races at 9F. Johnny V. Runs well from from multiple race positions. Only thing that is a negative is the 3 starts, but his stablemate Mindframe almost won the Belmont last year off only 2 starts, so it’s not out of the question. He should sit a trip in behind the leaders, and he and Journalism will probably get first jump. He’s a must use for me.

Gerard:  This horse is an enigma to me. Ran a good second in the Wood, but took nearly three weeks to get back to the work tab and have one recorded work before the Derby. He made a big move forward on Speed Figs and they seem to be training him as such. Not sure if Repole or Pletcher is the trainer.

Lisa: Both Brian and Gerard make excellent points here. I like the fact that he excelled on two opposing track biases which is full evidence that he is accepting that speed/stamina balance perfectly. Most years, 3 speed horses and one stamina horse hits the super - consistently - and Grande actually has both of those sides covered. It's a big yes for me.

FLYING MOHAWK

Brian:  Not fast enough. Highest Beyer is an 84, and that’s not competitive. Cool horse, cool connections, but they’re just there for the party. He’ll be back on Turf or Tapeta after this race.

Gerard:  Son of Japanese bred Karakontie, this guy will be trying dirt for the first time. With Sunday Silence on top of the pedigree and Candy Ride on the bottom, I do not see any reason why he won’t handle it.

Lisa: What is very telling with his transition to dirt is that he ran horrible on a YIELDING turf bias - ran better on a FIRM turf bias - did best on AWS. He is definitely heading in the right direction. I just feel like there is something here. I love the way he is training at Churchill. Really nice on the dirt. I got burned backing this type of horse with Endlessly last year, but slammed it with Animal Kingdom in 2011. I just can't let go of him yet.

EAST AVENUE

Brian:  Need the lead type. It’s proven, and this race will be no different. He’s gonna go for the lead, but ultimately fold. I also wonder if he isn’t the “Other Godolphin”. His buddy Sovereignty is a confirmed Closer, and what do closers need??… Pace. I know they have different trainers, but Godolphin has the final call. He could force the Bull, Roddy, AP, and others into a suicidal pace, and give Sovereignty his best shot. Toss.

Gerard:  Last seen finishing a game second in the Bluegrass, having made all only to be caught in the final strides. He should get a lot out of that race and gets a decent post position here if he can rate. His best races have been at Keeneland, but the waters get deeper here.

Lisa: Excellent point Brian. This horse is simply not built for the Kentucky Derby and no amount of searching through that chart is going to change that.

PUBLISHER

Brian:  Maiden? Yeah I know. But guess what, he’s still the best from the Assmussen barn. His last two races have actually both been pretty solid. He’s definitely not good enough to win, but could he get up for 4th. Absolutely. I think he’ll get plenty of pace to run at, and with a good ride from Irad, who knows.

Gerard:  Has been getting better lately and his workouts have made him one of the best buzz horses coming into the Derby. The blinkers seem to have helped him to focus, but he has been known to find traffic problems in some previous races.

Lisa: I like how he always upgrades his position in every race, but for some reason, this horse reminds me so much of Bret Calhoun's colt, By My Standards, from back in 2019. He does well on sloppy tracks so he could be a little surprise on the bottom of a super. I'm willing to throw him on for good measure.

TIZTASTIC

Brian:  The other Assmussen. I’m on record saying this horse has me confused, and has me looking for some kind of flash. Any flash. Guess what… There’s no flash. He’s a closer with no turn of foot. He’s a closer, who actually finishes his races slow. It’s unbelievable. He won the LA Derby, but Chunk of Gold was the better horse. Tiztastic will pass some tiring horses late, but I think 7th is probably as close as he gets. Toss.

Gerard:  Finally got the pace he needed in the LA Derby and capitalized with style. Has been outshone by his stablemate in the mornings, but should get the pace he needs again this time.

Lisa: If the overseas guys don't take it, I would love to see Asmussen then in the Winner's Circle. I love his smile and humbling attitude. Wild chart with this guy and is definitely a wildcard while holding it. I'm not confident enough to take a stand either way with this guy but I feel the distance is rock solid. Like Gerard said, with a pace to run into, he'll be giving some action late.

RENDER JUDGMENT

Brian:  Toby’s Horse. RIP. Have to go head over heart here. Trainer didn’t want to run him, and I agree. He’s got a nice 12F Belmont pedigree, but he’s not fast enough in here. Toss.

Gerard:  This guy always seems to have a mild move only to flatten out. Leparoux is a good fit for him, but he just is not good enough.

Lisa: I can't bet a Leparoux horse in the Derby. That said, it would be a beautiful tribute should the horse find wings to make it into that Winner's Circle. If I have to lose this year by not backing him, I think I might be okay with it.

COAL BATTLE

Brian:  Nice story. Pedigree is all wrong. He’s a miler. Peaked in the Rebel and was all out to hold off Sandman. Toss.

Gerard:  Very nice horse, but I get the feeling that he has peaked already.

Lisa: Happy he made it into a Derby gate. Happy to cross him off from contention. He's going nowhere at 10f.

SANDMAN

Brian:  Gives off Tapit Trice vibes, but more of a confirmed closer. Big locomotive that just keeps coming. Actually has demonstrated some nice turn of foot, which is critical coming from behind. Love his 36 point profile and his consistently improving Speed figs as the distance stretch out. He’ll get pace, and he’s a live board hit candidate. Use underneath.

Gerard:  Capitalized off a nuclear pace to win the Arkansas Derby and figures to get a similar pace here. He will need a clear path, as he does not look like a horse who can hit seams on request. Finished more than five lengths behind Sovereignty in the Street Sense.

Lisa: Another Tapit boy finding his best strides as he ups his distances and should be ready to roll towards that stretch. A definite superfecta contender on a nice clean track or a wet track. I don't think either pace is necessarily a factor with this guy, he'll move late either way if he isn't steadied enroute.

SOVEREIGNTY

Brian:  Yet another Closer towards the outside. This guy is a worthy 2nd choice, although he could climb to 3rd or even 4th choice, which would be a gift. He’s won at Churchill already, and showed good burst in the FOY. My guess is Mott did not have him cranked for the FL Derby, but he paired up figs anyway. I think he’s sitting on a career best. Must use. 2nd thru 4th.

Gerard:  Burst on the scene breaking his maiden in the Street Sense last October. He looked good in both starts this year and seems to be sitting on a big race. He does have a tendency to get a bit hot and sweat up a bit before his races so that will be worth keeping an eye on.

Lisa: There is no question here. The horse is a must use, even with his mares balance sitting in the opposite direction. The horse simply doesn't care in the least about that. He is one of the most consistent horses on the field, never once showing a let up with that late speed of his. I love that all of his kin will be up front and he'll be coming to chase them all down. Should make for a thrilling stretch run.

CHUNK OF GOLD

Brian:  I kinda like this guy. Two Phils-ish, just not as good. Turfway trained via the LA circuit. Was the best horse in the LA Derby as the only one who attended a fast pace and kept going. He also has the benefit of the 9.5F race, and will be as fit as any horse in the race. I actually see him settling midpack, and getting a jump on some closers. He doesn’t have the burst I’d like to see, but he keeps fighting. May use.

Gerard:  He is classified as a closer (S2) on the Quirin scale, but shows the fastest last race early pace. He was the only one who made up ground in the Risen Star and was the only one of the early pace horses around at the end of the LA Derby. While the post position doesn’t help him, he should still be able to work out a mid-pack trip. I love the fact that he has been training at Turfway as the tapeta will have him fit. Loveberry is a perfect fit for this guy.

Lisa: With his insanely high early speed figures from the LA Derby to consult, all I can envision is a repeat performance of Vyjack coming out of Post 20 back in 2013. He ran like a tornado whipping through Louisville, and it only lasted for a mile.

OWEN ALMIGHTY

Brian:  Trainer knows this is a fools errand, but Derby Fever is real. Toss.

Gerard:  Owen will have an almighty task from this post position.

Lisa: I feel sorry for the horse. Lead runner in Post 20. A scratch out of this race and saved for the Preakness would work wonders for this colt's self esteem and for his well-being.

BAEZA

Brian:  Must use!  He enters my revised Top 6 after the defections.  His numbers are second to only Journalism, and we all know about his family history.  He draws the outside post now, and that is actually a good thing.  He’ll have clean run, and with Prat on his pack, you know he’ll get a great ride.  Prat also guided Country House on a sloppy track back in 2019.  This could set up for a really nice duel down the stretch, as both he and Journalism have similar styles, and I expect them to sit similar trips.

Gerard:  Posted soon.

Lisa:  I think the horse is built properly for a wet/sloppy sealed track. He hits on all right the points. If I can't have Rodriguez, I'll take the son of Puca - 1/2 to one of my favorite front running horse, 10f Belmont winner Dornoch. Half to Mage, who won the Derby last year as well. As long as we don't get the quicksand-type of mud, he's good to go.

Original Picks before Rodriguez and Grande scratched and before Baeza drew in:

TOP SIX - IN NO PARTICULAR ORDER - Plus one Longshot

BRIAN:

• Journalism

• Sovereignty

• Grande

• Luxor Cafe

• Sandman

• Final Gambit

Longshot: Admire Daytona

GERARD:

• Sovereignty

• Journalism

• Final Gambit

• Chunk of Gold

• Rodriguez

• Luxor Cafe

Longshot: Tiztastic

LISA:

• Rodriguez

• Luxor Cafe

• Sovereignty

• Journalism

• Grande

• Citizen Bull

Longshot: Final Gambit