Post 1 HILL ROAD Quality Road

DP = 3-2-9-2-0 (16) DI = 1.46   CD = 0.38 ANZ = 2.08

Mare Profile = 10-2-3-6-10   Speed = 12   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.86   Triads = 15-11-19

REASON TO WIN:  This is one hell of a horse and he's coming into his own at just the right time and attempting just the right distance. The 8.5 dirt races at Tampa Bay and DelMar were too short for him but he still produced severe evidence of his speed talent. At 9f, he smoked the field but he still was traveling too short and this may produce an explosion at 10f for this guy. It builds up and builds up and then he's unleashed on the perfect track at the perfect distance. He is the only colt bred with severe Chef Stamina on the field and should things get testy out front, he will continue faster and faster - on a clear fast track. Never underestimate a 1.46 index colt with Lemon Drop Kid sitting in the second generation. Its perfect.

REASON TO LOSE: Looking at his last race in the Peter Pan, the visuals were magnificent and he ran that field down like a Champ, however, his beyers across the board fall under those of Heart of Honor in the Preakness. Both sat in 8th position, with the big difference coming from the talent of the jockeys. Prat wasted no time in easing Hill Road from that 8th spot and gradually kicked him into gear after the 2nd call. Saffie waited until the last freakin second and paid the price, but, overall, Heart of Honor received better beyers. Hill Road doesn't have Prat this time around. He has the maniac Irad Ortiz, and you never know what will end up transpiring with him aboard. Hopefully, Chad Brown gives Irad strict instructions because if he doesn't, we could see Hill Road running completely against his style. You just never know what you're going to get with Irad aboard.

Post 2 SOVEREIGNTY Into Mischief

DP = 2-3-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33   CD = 0.88 ANZ = 7.00

Mare Profile = 3-10-5-7-4   Speed = 13   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.05   Triads = 18-22-16

REASON TO WIN:  He is so consistent with his wicked late run that you know, before the bell even rings, that Sovereignty will come flying like a freight train late. He has done it 6 times out of 6 races and he will do it again a 7th time. He is built great for the race and he lucked out when Crudo came aboard to rain on Rodriguez's parade. His 4.33/7.00 is held in complete reserve and kept on standby until that button gets pushed. He always has it there in the waiting. Killer style for a horse bred in that manner and Alvarado knows exactly when to unleash him. He will do it again, regardless of weather. He will do it again, regardless of pace. He's rested and ready to go.

REASON TO LOSE: His win in the Kentucky Derby was fantastic, however, well over half of the competitors who stood in that gate were out of the race by the 2nd call - and half of what was remaining after that were gone by the 3rd call. He didn't necessarily beat them, in so much as they beat themselves. He had an awful lot of things align perfectly for him and this time it will be a matter of only his talent and merit against a good field. He won't have it easy this time and he'll have to compete against at least 5 others who won't be retreating at the 8.5f mark. On a clean track at 10f, he is actually borderline for the distance, however, he won't need to circle a huge crowd this time. The opposite tilt in his mare's balance underneath that 4.33/7.00 chef index is a slight problem but it only becomes a major issue if forced to hang on the far outside for any length of time. He did have aid with that sloppy track in more ways than one.

Post 3 RODRIGUEZ Authentic

DP = 1-1-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 4-5-8-12-2   Speed = 9   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.88   Triads = 17-25-22

REASON TO WIN:  Same as the Derby, this horse has the single best configurations on the field. By far. His balance is exquisite. Lower end of the speed spectrum with a killer mare balance for the 10f. These are also 12f Belmont numbers as well, so we know the distance is in the bag. His gate to wire win in his last race in the Wood Memorial was the very best performance that he ever had, traveling gate to wire, at a fairly normal pace, while posting very commendable beyers across the board. A sign of maturity? Possibly, but could have also been the fact that he finally got the heck out of California and competed closer to his optimum distance. What he has above the rest here are those configurations and if he can run to them on Saturday without being hounded by Crudo, he could easily smoke this field gate to wire.

REASON TO LOSE: The main reason for a loss here is the simple fact that he is not built to be a lead speedster but that is how Baffert molds all of his runners. He was fine with it traveling at a moderate pace at 9f, and before Crudo showed up, Rod was set up perfectly. Now, not so much. He has company with a son of Justify which will now force a much faster pace and Rod could now have a Getaway Car 2.0 moment and get destroyed in the process just like his ill-fated stablemate. Both built on stamina, not speed, and if forced to go faster than his breeding provided, he will cave in the same exact manner.

The second reason is because of the evidence he provided to us in the Wood Memorial. Since he is a stamina horse and his best performance came at Aqueduct and not on the faster biases on the West Coast, there could be a problem for him if this June track is souped up and very fast. He may not be built in a true conducive manner and the possibility of a very fast bias will make him run faster early, which of course, could make him lose steam even faster. It's a Catch 22 because his trainer insists on running him against his breeding. The addition of Crudo could have a huge negative impact on this guy based on the race being held at Saratoga and not Aqueduct. Two different biases will produce different results if pushed too fast too early.

Post 4 UNCAGED Curlin

DP = 5-7-7-1-0 (20) DI = 3.44   CD = 0.80 ANZ = 3.44

Mare Profile = 7-4-3-8-6   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.91   Triads = 14-15-17

REASON TO WIN: There isn't one.

REASON TO LOSE: Because he's out of his league. He doesn't belong here, and he's too damn slow to even consider it.

Post 5 CRUDO Justify

DP = 3-2-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.80 ANZ = 3.80

Mare Profile = 8-6-3-7-8   Speed = 14   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.96   Triads = 17-16-18

REASON TO WIN:  Winner by 8 lengths traveling gate to wire in the Sir Barton and flashed a very nice sprint out of the gate to gain that position. He also remained in the 2 path for the entire race, traveling just a bit further than the minimal 8.5f distance. A brisk pace from him could easily take out his main competition, Rodriquez, at some point, leaving him loose on the lead late in the contest. He has the means then to slow down the pace in order to reserve something for a challenging run after the final turn. Being the son of Justify with his chef configurations would see to it that 10f is well within his reach if he can somehow manage to spread his energy to match his inbred balance.

REASON TO LOSE: In the Sir Barton, he had 6 competitors with him enter that gate. Two broke badly, one was steadied at the 6f pole, one was floated out at the beginning and lost all kinds of ground. By the 1/2 mile, Crudo had only to beat two colts in this race, and both of them were basically sprinters, not the best suited for this race. He won by default as a paid workout. He still moved fast and impressively but this race will hold nowhere near the type of competition that he saw last out at Pimlico. Invictus, his lead speed competitor in the Sir Barton is nowhere near the caliber of Rodriguez, so he will need to somehow turn up the volume on his class as high as it can go and as fast as is humanly possible. He's running out of time and if Mike Smith truly understands exactly what his mount Rodriguez is facing up front, he'll lay low and let the class take over when Crudo starts to give in. Crudo may be bred for the 10f but Rodriguez is truly holding both the proper build and the class. There is no comparison at this stage of the game, unless Crudo goes wild out front for Repole to score with Uncaged - which would be a blunder of epic proportions.

Post 6 BAEZA McKinzie

DP = 1-1-4-0-0 (6) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 2.00

Mare Profile = 9-6-2-9-6   Speed = 15   Stamina = 15   Index = 1.13   Triads = 17-17-17

REASON TO WIN:   There is alot to like about his chances at Saratoga at this distance. Half brother to the beast, Dornoch, with a forward running style and an evenly balanced scale. He had no problem with running outside of his style in the Derby and did not fold as many would have easily done. His best speed figures on a clean track came at the longest distance he had to date, again, running away from his preferred style after a bad break but still had the muscle to compete without caving. This is telling of a multi-style colt who can adapt if necessary. He is basically taking the best attributes of both Dornoch and Mage and rolling them into one colt who is also adept on a variety of biases. The evenly balanced scale will keep him steady and unrelenting at 10f, where one side of the speed/stamina scale does not intrude on the other and he'll remain both unhurried and full of energy for the entire duration.

REASON TO LOSE: Baeza was very lucky to be drawn in late in the Derby and end up in that last gate. He had zero problems to contend with at the opening but did find alittle turmoil on the outside before mid race. His evenly balanced scale kept him going but he drifted badly all the way out to the 9-path in the stretch. With only a few competitors left, he held for 3rd about 5 lengths behind Sovereignty. One could argue that he was still there in the late mix based on his lucky gate and outside post, gaining that 3rd place trophy by default. The Kentucky Derby, especially in the rain, becomes more about being at the right place at the right time than could be argued against raw talent. He also capitalized on the small field in the Sanita Anita Derby when he bobbled the start, staying clear of Westwood and Citizen Bull, but again, had very minimal competitors left in contention, this time only 2 left by the 3/4 pole. It could be argued that his last 2 performances were very much aided by the downfall of his foes and not so much as he himself beating them heads up in the race. They simply weren't competing any more. He may get that with one or two foes this time around but the bulk of his comrades will be competing til the bitter end in this race and he won't be able to drift out into the 9 path in the stretch at 10f again. Somehow, he will need to keep every ounce of energy that he can muster to compete against three others who always and consistently show off when they near that final turn.

Post 7 JOURNALISM Curlin

DP = 4-5-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57   CD = 0.81 ANZ = 3.57

Mare Profile = 6-5-4-7-7   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.84   Triads = 15-16-18

REASON TO WIN:  He's a superstar. A work horse. Determined, unrelenting, consistent and unafraid. The very best with each of his past performance lines. Mike McCarthy is a wizard with stamina training and somehow he worked major magic with this guy in that regard. Successful at all distances regardless of bias and weather. Unbreakable and unshakable.

REASON TO LOSE: Just like Sovereignty in the Derby, Journalism lost a huge portion of his competitors early in the race. Because of his raw determination, he was unaffected during the opening massacre but he became outrageously advantaged by the lack of competitors thereafter. In the Preakness, his jockey got away with his rough riding but he would not get away with that again at Saratoga. He'd be stupid to pull that maneuver again. This horse has been tested with 3 very hefty performances since April 25th and has to run 10f yet again. This is not an 8f or 9f race which means that he has to be in tip top shape to compete against some very well rested foes. His configurations do leave a bit to be desired on a clean track running this distance, but so far, the horse doesn't seem to care about that. We'll see how he goes with it on a fast clean 10f track with a full gate of competitors with such a short turn around time.

Post 8 HEART OF HONOR Honor A.P.

DP = 2-2-6-0-0 (10) DI = 2.33   CD = 0.60 ANZ = 3.67

Mare Profile = 12-2-4-2-9   Speed = 14   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.25   Triads = 18-8-15

REASON TO WIN:  His 5th place in the Preakness is quite deceiving. This horse ran the fastest recent late beyer of all of the late runners on the field and ran out of track. He wasn't a part of the early race but he came flying in the end and the added track will help his cause a great deal. In addition, he is now accustom to his surroundings, he is well-rested, no flights, no quarantines, no light breezing. His "conditioning" is now on par with competing in a Grade One race this time around and not superficial and rushed. The distance is also much better suited for his kind of style. Both the horse and his connections are as determined and as high class as they come. If you watch Honor's replays, he has that same late burning style as his Great Grand-dad A.P. Indy. They hang loose but then show-off as they hit that final turn. The addition of Crudo and his affects on Rodriguez will not only aid Sovereignty, but it will aid Heart of Honor as well. If he manages to stay engaged in the full race and also break well this time around, he has a real shot to fly late and be competitive against Journalism and Hill Road who will have better position at the 9.5f mark. He's going to have to run the race of his life, but one thing is for sure, this guy is nowhere near a 30-1 horse like Uncaged is.

REASON TO LOSE: I hate even writing it out but it is what it is. Keeping things in the family may not be the best way to go for a Triple Crown race. Jamie's daughter, a 23 year old extremely inexperienced jockey with basically no experience on USA tracks is attempting to win the Belmont Stakes. This does no favors for the horse in the least. Even if Lemaire was aboard, it would still issue a huge disadvantage, let alone having this young girl navigate the Saratoga track for the first time. It is definitely not the ideal situation for Heart of Honor. Understanding that Jamie wants both the horse and his daughter to succeed but it does cut deeply into doing what is right for the horse. This guy will need to make his own luck on Saturday. He's running this race on his own. I sure do hope it comes easy for him.

Saturday's June 7 program includes five Grade 1 races and eight stakes races in total.

Metropolitan Handicap at 8f - We'll look into this race as well.

Jaipur Stakes at 5.5f turf .

Resorts World Casino Manhattan at 9.5f turf.

Woody Stephens at 7f. - Maybe this one too.

Wonder Again at 8.5f turf for fillies.

True North at 6.5f for dirt sprinters.

Pennine Ridge at 8.5f on turf.

Belmont Stakes at 10f.

DIRT RACES:

RACE 1  - 6.5f Fillies and Mares - Top Three All Rear Runners 

:22 :45 1:10.5 1:17.2 Extremely fast up front - all gave in, Lead held for 4th.

1. MAGGY's PALACE Prat Rear Runner

   3-8-11-0-0 (22) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.64 ANZ = 3.36 Speed = 12   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.82   Triads = 12-7-17

2. ROSWELL Alvarado Rear Runner

   3-5-6-0-0 (14) DI = 3.67   CD = 0.79 ANZ = 4.33 Speed = 13   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.95   Triads = 17-25-18

3. WILLOW BEND Rispoli Rear Runner

   8-8-12-0-0 (28) DI = 3.67   CD = 0.86 ANZ = 3.67 Speed = 13   Stamina = 18   Index = 0.68   Triads = 13-10-18

4. SAVE US MELANIA   Lescano Lead

   2-6-4-0-0 (12) DI = 5.00   CD = 0.83 ANZ = 7.00 Speed = 13   Stamina = 9   Index = 1.26   Triads = 18-16-14

   
   

   Outlook: First race on a sloppy sealed messy track with Fillies which generally do not follow suit with configurations. All three at 3.00 and over through the chefs. Top Three all rear runners with the lead holding on for first. Extremely fast lead fractions, top tier ran out of steam, Rear runners prevail. Winner was low end of the speed spectrum with outrageously high mare inbred stamina. But still only 6.5f, so at this point, not a true basis to tell if the track is sweeping the lead tier to run faster or if it was just a bunch of sprinters burning themselves out. We'll see how it continues.

RACE 2  - 7f Maiden Special Weight - Only 7 runners, three of four off the pace.  

:22.4 :46.2 1:11.1 1:23.3 Extremely fast - Lead disintegrated.

1. Stars and Strides Alvarado        Rear Runner

   1-3-2-0-0 (6) DI = 5.00   CD = 0.83 ANZ = 7.00 Speed = 10   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.16   Triads = 14-17-17

2. Mainstream                Saez Lead Tier

   5-10-11-0-0 (26) DI = 3.73   CD = 0.77 ANZ = 4.45 Speed = 12   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.14   Triads = 15-12-15

3. Secured Lender Prat Rear Runner

   4-6-11-1-0 (22) DI = 2.38   CD = 0.59 ANZ = 3.92 Speed = 13   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.22   Triads = 20-18-18

4. Copious    Lescano Rear Runner

   11-4-15-4-6 (40) DI = 1.29   CD = 0.25 ANZ = 1.29 Speed = 13   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.76   Triads = 14-17-17

   
   

   Outlook: Just like the first race, Three speed driven (chefs) coming from off the pace after a very fast opening, lead tier disintegrates. The only stamina driven horse to hit the superfecta (4th place) happened to have 40 chef profile points. Based on the 1st 2 races, it may appear that the track is sweeping the lead tier very fast - too fast - and they are losing steam. But both races were short, so we'll see how it continues. At this point, Alvarado has taken first and second and Prat has taken first and third.

RACE 3 - TURF

RACE 4 - 7f 75k Optional Claiming - Top Two Lead Tier Holds.

22.86 45.64 1:09.23 1:21.54

1. General Partner Prat Lead Tier - 1st and 2nd

   5-9-12-0-0 (26) DI = 3.33   CD = 0.73 ANZ = 4.00 Speed = 14   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.09   Triads = 16-14-16

2. Victory Way Lescano Lead Tier - 1st and 2nd

   0-1-11-0-0 (12) DI = 1.18   CD = 0.08 ANZ = 2.64 Speed = 10   Stamina = 12   Index = 0.92   Triads = 17-19-19

3. Echo Again Alvarado Back of the Pack

   DP = 2-4-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50   CD = 0.57 ANZ = 3.00 Speed = 9   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.88   Triads = 15-17-19

4. Into Pleasure Torres Lead Tier - 3rd and 4th

   DP = 1-6-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80   CD = 0.67 ANZ = 5.40 Speed = 13   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.04   Triads = 18-18-17

Outlook:  Huge change here. Lead speed holds, both 1 and 2 around the track. High Index wins, but City of Light colt with a 2.64 ANZ stays to the wire. Totally different dynamics in this race. Prat and Alvarado are exchanging wins so far. This race still produced very fast early fractions but at 7f, this time, lead stays.

RACE 5 - 7f Optional Claiming Lead Tier disintegrates. Too fast.

22.2 44.3 1:09.4 1:23 Extreme Pace

1. Pentathlon Jose Ortiz Mid Runner

   DP = 5-9-10-0-0 (24) DI = 3.80   CD = 0.79 ANZ = 5.40 Speed = 14   Stamina = 9   Index = 1.43   Triads = 20-13-15

2. Ridgewood Runner Santana Mid Runner

   DP = 2-4-6-0-0 (12) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.67 ANZ = 4.33 Speed = 16   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.41   Triads = 19-12-15

3. Unlimitedpotential Gonzalez Stalk in 3rd

   DP = 3-2-8-1-0 (14) DI = 1.80   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 1.80 Speed = 11   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.91   Triads = 13-16-17

4. Aggelos the Great Franco Rear Runner

   DP = 1-1-4-0-0 (6) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 2.50 Speed = 11   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.79   Triads = 13-10-18

   
   

Outlook:  Again, extreme fast lead tier pace, not sustaining at minimal 7f. Midpack with inherited chef speed prevail for top two. Can't tell if track is extreme for the top tier, forcing these fast fractions for each of these dirt races, but if it continues for the rest, Rodriguez and Crudo would have no option other than slowing down and crawling around this track. At 10f, if this keeps up and it is the bias forcing these incredibly fast early fractions, they won't stand a chance. Still more to go though before the big race.

RACE 6 - Turf

RACE 7 - Grade 3 True North 6.f Midpack Runner prevails.

22.1 44.3 1:08.1 1:14.3 - Extreme Pace

1. Book'em Danno Lopez Midpack

   DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.67 ANZ = 4.33 Speed = 15   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.92   Triads = 18-17-17

2. Mullikin Prat Stalked Lead

   DP = 5-7-9-1-0 (22) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.73 ANZ = 3.00 Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.13   Triads = 15-7-15

3. Crazy Mason Franco Rear Runner

   DP = 1-5-7-1-0 (14) DI = 2.11   CD = 0.43 ANZ = 2.56 Speed = 12   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.14   Triads = 17-14-16

4. Nutella Fella Alvarado Lead Runner

   DP = 2-7-1-0-0 (10) DI = 19.00   CD = 1.10 ANZ = 19.00 Speed = 11   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.00   Triads = 15-16-16

Outlook: Inbred speed again on top. Extreme pace again up front. Only 6.5f so top two up front early held on for super. All races so far with early extreme pace and if this holds, it will be very difficult for Crudo and Rodriguez to sustain that type of pace for 1-1/4 miles. Chef stamina not doing well on this bias, however, these races are all 6.5f to 7f races which is usually always won by a 3.00 and over colt. The bias is set for extreme lead pace which has been very detrimental at these shorter races, it will most likely be even worse at 10f.

RACE 8 - Met Mile 8f - Top two held

23.4 46.4 1:10.1 1:35.4 Fast Pace, not as extreme

1. Raging Torrent Dettori Gate to Wire

   DP = 2-4-2-0-0 (8) DI = 7.00   CD = 1.00 ANZ = 7.00 Speed = 12   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.10   Triads = 16-18-16

2. Fierceness Velazquez Stalked Lead

   DP = 1-3-2-0-0 (6) DI = 5.00   CD = 0.83 ANZ = 9.00 Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.92   Triads = 17-20-19

3. Just a Touch Geroux Rear Runner

   DP = 3-6-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 4.14 Speed = 14   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.21   Triads = 17-10-16

4. White Abarrio Irad Ortiz Midpack Runner

   DP = 2-5-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80   CD = 0.75 ANZ = Speed = 14   Stamina = 15   Index = 1.00   Triads = 16-14-17

Outlook: Fast normal pace for an 8f race and the top two leaders held. This pace not as crazy as those that came before. The two with the highest inbred speed prevails. This race was run as if no extreme bias was there, normal fractions under normal conditions. Track still wet but not as sloppy as the undercard. Things could be evening out and shows how important it is to keep pace normal to match the distance for the lead tier.

RACE 9 - Turf Cancelled