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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

2024 Lecomte Stakes Notes


Lecomte Stakes. 8.5f. Fairgrounds


NEXT LEVEL - SCRATCH Desormeaux - Cohen

DP = 4-5-6-1-0 (16) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 2.33

Mare Profile = 6-6-3-8-7   Speed = 12   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.84   Triads = 15-17-18


He's got the favorable rail post and the build is actually half decent for Fairgrounds at this time of year. The problem is the wacky way in which this horse distributes his energy. That will never do up against this group. NO FOR ME!


NASH Cox - Geroux

DP = 8-8-10-2-0 (28) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.79 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 11-4-1-6-8   Speed = 15   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.17   Triads = 16-11-15


The 11 in the Brilliant spot of his mares profile is the reason why this horse is a little speed demon during the first half of his races. It will be the second call of this race that either helps or hinders him. If he flies consistently without cutting back in the 2nd call, his endurance will be adversely affected. It's 50/50 here at this distance, which is just skimming his wheelhouse.


Fairgrounds at this time of year does him no favors and with his configurations he would be an ace at Santa Anita, Gulfstream etc. This is not to say that he can't push himself 8.5f on a Fairgrounds track, but it is saying that he has a slight disadvantage against Track Phantom and the two hot-shot closers. Great Post Position puts him in a very nice spot to tangle with Next Level, the one who may have the greatest affect on Nash (good or bad).


Brad Cox is a sly trainer and his strategy of entering Ethan Energy gives him endorsement on both sides of the pace structure. Moderate pace at Fairgrounds gives advantage to Nash. Killer pace and the advantage goes to Ethan. Either way, both of his charges have a fairly good shot of collecting one of those checks, if not two. BOARD HIT!


TIZZY INDY Desormeaux - Graham

DP = 3-5-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.69 ANZ = 5.00

Mare Profile = 11-2-4-3-7   Speed = 13   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.33   Triads = 17-9-14


I don't think anyone could ever understand the strategies of Desormeaux and I see no reason to even try. NO CHANCE!


CAN GROUP Casse - Loveberry

DP = 0-3-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 4.14

Mare Profile = 7-4-6-6-6   Speed = 11   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.00   Triads = 17-16-18


Based on the inevitable, ridiculously low odds that Nash and Track Phantom will eventually have, I see two horses that offer real value and that stand out in a very intriguing way. Can Group is one of them. This guy has consistently powered home with severe late energy on turf and on fast dirt and on muddy dirt. Even in defeat and regardless of surface, not one time did his late energy fail him.


The fact that 3 out of 5 of his races have been run on turf should not be a concern based on the low total chef points which gives credence to his dominating mares and to the outside prominent non chefs that push his index up to a speedy 4.14. While his first two dirt starts did not produce fancy beyers (but his last turf race did) it is important to note that the distances of those two races were completely against the grain, especially the sloppy race at only 5f.


A "true turf runner" is not going to move on a sloppy dirt surface, especially at a sprinters distance of only 5f, but if you note the comments on the Race Results Chart, it states, "Can Group was unhurried early, rallied 5 wide into the stretch and finished full of run." That is the 4.14 index taking a stand.


In his second maiden attempt on a 7f dirt surface, he came in 3rd behind two Derby Prep Winners, Timberlake and West Saratoga. Not a great performance, but again, way too short at 7f and the horse still improved his position late on that surface.


Another item that stands out here is that as a young and inexperienced 2 year old, he had "broke slow and was rank" in a few of his races, even in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. But he always recovered and displayed his best acceleration around the final turn. With 77 days between last race and the Lecomte, surely Casse has gotten him more settled with the gate. His workouts are just fine for a rear runner, he is not going to post :47 seconds in 4f because that is not his style. He reserves it all and then unleashes it after he's run awhile.


In 2018, Instilled Regard won the Lecomte Stakes. He also went on to win a few Graded Stakes races on Turf. At this time of the year at Fairgrounds, the "turf ability" is actually advantageous.


His immediate peer is Ethan Energy and both of these horses may just have a reason to shine based on their running style against the heavy hitters up front. Because of the odds, no reason not to take a shot. I'M CLIMBING ABOARD!


ETHAN ENERGY Cox - Saez

DP = 1-0-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00   CD = 1.00 ANZ = 7.00

Mare Profile = 9-2-8-9-4   Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.12   Triads = 19-19-21


These are gorgeous numbers, but just like Can Group above, low total chefs points put the dominance with the mares. Additional prominent non-chefs force that ANZ all the way up to a speedy 7.00 - and the horse runs from the rear! He reserves it all to the end. This is the main reason why his 6.5f maiden was a disaster but once he attacked an 8.5f track, he was able to show off all of that late speed that he likes to hoard til the end.


It would appear that 9f and above is where this horse will really begin to shine but this particular group does pose a huge possibility that he can capitalize late, just like Can Group. Looking at Nash and Track Phantom, both significantly dropped their late energy in the Gun Runner Stakes at the same track. The lead tiers early energy is way too good over this field and both will most likely put some serious distance between them and the rear runners up to the 5-6f mark. Ethan and Can Group can only hope that those two leads (and maybe another) tick off a few extra lengths in that time to affect their late energy even greater this time. It is a shot that I am willing to take. YES FOR THE SHOT!


LAT LONG McPeek - Hernandez

DP = 4-12-4-0-0 (20) DI = 9.00   CD = 1.00 ANZ = 3.67

Mare Profile = 3-10-2-8-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.82   Triads = 15-20-16


The endurance needed against the lead tier is invisible and he will peddle backwards before the stretch. NO SHOT!


TRACK PHANTOM Asmussen - Rosario

DP = 1-2-5-0-0 (8) DI = 2.20   CD = 0.50 ANZ = 2.20

Mare Profile = 7-6-6-7-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.04   Triads = 19-19-19


There is nothing in those numbers that go against this race. He has speed, he has endurance. He just needs a bit of restraint in the early goings to reserve his energy against Can Group and Ethan where it counts - at the top of the stretch. He will most likely put a ton of air between him and those two rear runners and his running start may be too much to conquer. He is built the best here for this particular race at this particular time. He just needs to settle early and show some restraint. YES!


AWESOME ROAD - SCRATCH Cox - Concepcion

DP = 7-7-14-0-0 (28) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75 ANZ = 3.00

Mare Profile = 11-3-1-3-14   Speed = 14   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.81   Triads = 15-7-18


Not sure of what this 3rd entry from Cox is all about. Could be because this is a 20-10-6-4-2 point structure and some points is better than no points. Or it could be to play defense for Ethan in the mid-stages.


Awesome Road's resume shows that he was "game" at 6f in his maiden at Ellis Park. In the 8.5f Futurity race at Keeneland, there was "no response." Lastly, in the 8.5f Jockey Club race, he "faded." Not sure I want to stick around for a hat trick. NO FOR ME.

 

The only way to make a profit in this race is to simply go for it as cheaply as possible and then start screaming at that television as they near the far turn. If the low odds hit first, well, at least the attempt had good intentions.


Combo bets across the board. May the highest odds prevail.


Top: Can Group - Track Phantom

Bottom: Ethan Energy - Nash

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