ANALYSIS PERTAINS TO KENTUCKY DERBY POTENTIAL AND HAS NO BEARING ON FUTURE DERBY PREPS.
Updated Weekly. Ratings at 1 star to 5 stars.
9/16/2023 - Iroquois Stakes - Churchill Downs
WEST SARATOGA Results Charts 8f dirt Final Time 1:37.28 - cloudy/fast
DP = 2-3-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.70 ANZ = 3.00
Mare Profile = 8-3-2-9-7 Speed = 11 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.84 Triads = 13-14-18
Exaggerator - Mo Wicked (Uncle Mo) Trainer: Larry Demeritte Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
St. Simon: 7.81%
Rating for the Derby: ++
Because of the 44.63 time at the 1/2 mile mark, the lead two speeds disintegrated. Both the winner, West Saratoga and second place finisher, Risk It, were able to capitalize off of perfect positioning. They both held a nice steady run. While Risk It sat in third position, 6 lengths behind the runaway lead speedster at the half, West Saratoga was 7.5 lengths off in 4th position , saving a bit extra energy. He had a tiny bit of an edge there in the middle stages, but not by much. At the 8f distance, Risk It's performance was actually much more impressive, even in defeat, based on his adverse breeding and disadvantage. Risk It showed demanding speed against his dominant inbred stamina. Risk It is much better built for the 10f, a bit handicapped at 8f. West Saratoga sits at the bottom of the speed spectrum with highly subpar mare's configurations for the Kentucky Derby. While the distance is not out of the question, the speed with which he would need in order to compete in conjunction with keeping up with that endurance is highly compromised with this set-up.
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9/23/2023 Alan Smurfit Beresford - Curragh
DEEPONE Replay 8f Turf Final Time: 1:41.42
DP = 2-0-12-6-0 (20) DI = 0.67 CD = -0.10
Mare Profile = 3-9-4-11-6 Speed = 12 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.70 Triads = 16-24-21
Study of Man - Avyanna (Galileo) Trainer: Twomey Jockey: Lee
St. Simon: 23.25%
Rating for the Derby: Turf
Deepone happened to beat three starters for O'Brien in this short field and cracked that long winning streak of his, but he is not a horse likely to set sail for the Kentucky Derby.
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9/30/23 Royal Lodge - New Market
GHOSTWRITER Replay 8f Turf Final Time: 1:37.06
DP = 3-6-9-0-0 (18) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.67
Mare Profile = 5-6-1-10-6 Speed = 11 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.74 Triads = 12-17-17
Invincible Spirit - Moorside (Champs Elysees) Trainer: Clive Cox Jockey: Kingscote
St. Simon: 63.48%
Rating for the Derby: Turf
Ghostwriter was well on his game to beat the favorite Capulet in this race. With the extravagant 63.48% linebreeding to St. Simon, coupled with the mares line, highly doubt he would ever be moved off of turf to compete in Kentucky.
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Oct 1, 2023 Prix duJean Luc Legardere - Longchamp
ROSALLION Replay 7f Turf Final Time: 1:18.27
DP = 0-4-11-5-0 (20) DI = 0.90 CD = -0.05
Mare Profile = 5-4-2-10-8 Speed = 9 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.57 Triads = 11-16-20
Blue Point - Rosaline (New Approach) Trainer: Hannon Jockey: Levey
St. Simon: 31.45%
Rating for the Derby: Turf
Rear Runner who is drenched in stamina. All turf. Does not translate to Churchill Dirt.
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Oct. 7, 2023 Champagne Stakes - Aqueduct
TIMBERLAKE Results 8f dirt Final Time: 1:35.90
DP = 2-2-6-4-0 (14) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.14 ANZ = 1.57
Mare Profile = 7-8-4-7-8 Speed = 15 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.96 Triads = 19-19-19
Into Mischief - Pin Up (Lookin At Lucky) Trainer: Brad Cox Jockey: Geroux
St. Simon: 45.7%
Rating for the Derby: ++++
At the moment, Timberlake gets 4 stars as opposed to 5 stars. His dosage figures for the Derby are stellar, however, all 4 races that he has had so far were ridden below :46 seconds at the half and each time he capitalized off of failing lead speed. Not that this is a bad thing (most likely will be close to Derby half as well) but it would be much more telling to see him race without being "pace dependent" on failing speed. He has the normal high and advantageous Into Mischief mare numbers, but he also has a very low stamina-leaning chef index. This is not good nor bad, but we need evidence that he is taking hold of it. So far, his style has capitalized from the extreme pace in front of him. We need to see the affect of a more rational pace, especially as the distances extend. Once we see that, his numbers are definitely worthy of 5 stars. But not yet.
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Oct 7, 2023 Breeders Futurity - Keeneland
LOCKED Results 8.5f dirt Final Time: 1:45.06
DP = 2-2-8-0-0 (12) DI = 2.00 CD = 0.50 ANZ = 2.50
Mare Profile = 6-2-5-6-9 Speed = 8 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.66 Triads = 13-13-20
Gun Runner - Luna Rosa (Malibu Moon) Trainer: Pletcher Jockey: J. Ortiz
St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy
Rating for the Derby: +++
The Keeneland track bias, which catered heavily to stamina and destroyed speed is in complete opposition to a Spring Churchill Track. Race was also run extremely slow, a full 5 seconds off the track record. Since the early pace died even with such slow 1/4 calls, nothing about this race shows promise for the Derby. If numbers get back on track from last year, Locked's numbers appear better suited for Belmont. If aggressive speed persists early as it did in the last two editions of the Kentucky Derby, Locked's style and numbers have a much better chance. Face value, not so much.
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Oct 7, 2023 American Pharoah - Santa Anita
MUTH Results 8.5f dirt Final Time: 1:42.45
DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.63 ANZ = 3.00
Mare Profile = 6-7-3-6-7 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.96 Triads = 16-16-16
Good Magic - Hoppa (Uncle Mo)
St: Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy Trainer: Baffert Jockey: Hernandez
Rating for the Derby: ++
Close to 3 seconds faster than Locked at same distance due mainly to opposing track biases. Optimum distance is just shy of 10f when combined. Mares dominant and evenly spread: under-par. Impressive at Santa Anita at distance with extremely fast 1/2 mile call (46.49) with ability to sit correctly in pocket waiting to pounce. Shows much better promise for Juvenile at same track as opposed to 10f Derby. Mares are off.
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Oct 28, 2023 Vertem Futurity Trophy - Doncaster
ANCIENT WISDOM Replay 8f turf
DP = 2-8-5-13-2 (30) DI = 0.71 CD = -0.17
Mare Profile = 7-8-2-9-8 Speed = 15 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.89 Triads = 17-19-19
Dubawi - Golden Valentine (Dalakhani) Trainer: Appleby
St. Simon: 12.5%
Rating for the Derby: Turf
Charles Appleby has a young budding star, built for the Turf.
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Oct 29, 2023 Street Sense Stakes - Churchill Downs
LIBERAL ARTS Results 8.5f dirt sloppy Final Time: 1:46.50
DP = 2-12-2-0-0 (16) DI = 15.00 CD = 1.00
Mare Profile = 4-5-5-9-6 Speed = 9 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.69 Triads = 14-19-20
Arrogate - Ismene (Tribal Rule) Trainer: Medina Jockey: Torres
St. Simon: 9.38%
Rating for the Derby: ++++
Very torn on this guy mainly because of the sloppy surface and the major advantage that his 15.00 index had on that surface. His ANZ jumps all the way up to a 19.00, which has been very harsh for the Derby. But, the mares stamina side is exquisite and because he is the son of Arrogate, there may in fact be something special here. What is intriguing is that he does not run for the lead with that high index and he allows more influence from his mares to shine through in his running style. This is one that will need to be monitored on a clean fast track and his rating will either fall to a 3 or rise to a 5 star depending on more evidence of mare dominance. Could be a live one. Second place finisher, Moonlight, also well equipped.
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Nov 3, 2023 Breeders Cup Juvenile - Santa Anita
FIERCENESS Results 8.5f dirt Final Time: 1:41.90
DP = 1-3-2-0-0 (6) DI = 5.00 CD = 0.83
Mare Profile = 5-6-6-8-5 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.92 Triads = 17-20-19
City of Light - Nonna Bella (Stay Thirsty) Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: Velasquez
St. Simon: 35.15%
Rating for the Derby: +++++
Quintessential Derby Numbers and highly upgraded after performance on fast track at Santa Anita. These numbers work on sloppy track as well. Standout part is the 35% linebreeding to St. Simon which carries with it even more stamina. Triads are great, DI is fantastic and the additional prominent non-chefs produce an ANZ figure of 9.00. Major Speed and Major Stamina inheritance. Perfection. Evidence is all exposed as well.
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Nov 25, 2023 Kentucky Jockey Club - Churchill Downs
HONOR MARIE Results 8.5f dirt Final Time: 1:44.31
DP = 9-11-15-1-0 (36) DI = 3.24 CD = 0.78
Mare Profile = 4-3-6-4-9 Speed = 7 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.61 Triads = 13-13-19
Honor Code - Dame Marie (Smart Strike) Trainer: Beckman Jockey: Bejarano
St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy
Rating for the Derby: +++++
High 36 total chef points. Six point spread leaning to stamina from the mares. Prominent non-chef additions push points total to 40 with a 3.71 ANZ figure. Rear running style has been advantageous over the last two Derby editions. Very well put together. Has been very consistent with speed ability and late energy. Excellent potential at 10f mark.
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Nov 25, 2023 Cattleya Sho - Tokyo Racecourse
AMANTE BIANCO Replay 1600 meters/8f
DP = 1-0-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00 CD = 1.00
Mare Profile = 6-4-7-7-3 Speed = 10 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.15 Triads = 17-18-17
Henny Hughes - Yukichan (Kurofune) Trainer: Miyata Jockey: Lemaire
St. Simon: Hold Your Peace → Blue Larkspur
Rating for the Derby: +++
One chef in the fourth generation, Halo (B,C) accounts for low Chef Profile and Points. Additions outside of chefs push ANZ number all the way up to a 6.20 with Sunday Silence, Hennessey and Storm Cat. Mare line is even and balanced and not strong enough on the stamina side to counteract the Prominent non-chefs. Heightened speed is at least favorable for UAE Derby distance.
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Dec 2, 2023 REMSEN STAKES - Aqueduct
DORNOCH Results 9f Sloppy Final Time: 1:50.30
DP = 2-4-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.57
Mares = 7-8-2-9-8 Speed = 15 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.89 Triads = 17-19-19
Good Magic - Puca (Big Brown) Trainer: Danny Gargan Jockey: Saez
St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy
Rating for the Derby: +++++
Five stars from Derby Future Pool One back in October and Remsen performance solidifies allegiance to his chart where he is significantly showing speed dominance through his mares. The 7 in the Brilliant spot and the 8 in the Intermediate spot of his mares profile is smashing that 2.50 chef index with his early running style but then his chefs are capitalizing on the late stamina. His speed endures the full distance and this is the main attribute in his success up until this point. Looking into the future, the extra furlong of the Derby is not a problem at all, however, based on the last 2 editions of the Derby, the lead spot could pose a problem with excess pace probability. Since we are several races away from the big day, it would be very beneficial to see a performance with evidence of ability to sit off the pace, with ability to rate behind excessive speed, reserving those 15 mare speed points after lead speed falters. The fact that he was able to turn his jets back on while deep in the stretch, a full length behind Sierra Leone, shows a horse with extreme determination and will - a sure sign of ability to rate off the pace if need be. This is the key for the Kentucky Derby, be it because of extreme early pace or even an unfavorable post position. At the moment, this horse has shown several dimensions, with multiple track biases, surfaces, and energy. He appears to be situated in a very advantageous spot among the other 4 and 5 star two year olds so far with evidence that he can adapt to a variety of situations - similar to an Epicenter-type. Chef Configurations work extremely well on rougher surfaces (most likely to include AWS) while Mares offer success on speedy (or muddy) surfaces. This shows an extremely well-rounded colt with no disadvantage at 9f to 12f. It is imperative that this horse has the opportunity to rate off the pace at some point. He has to show that "Epicenter-ability" for success in Kentucky. He's almost there. The best at this point, with Fierceness a close second. One with excessive speed and one with a perfect balance.
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Dec 13, 2023 ZEN-NIPPON NISAI YUSHUN - Kawasaki
FOREVER YOUNG Replay Approx 8f dirt Final Time: 1:43.5
DP = 4-2-6-0-0 (12) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.83
Mare Profile = 7-3-6-6-7 Speed = 10 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.88 Triads = 16-15-19
Real Steel - Forever Darling (Congrats) Trainer: Y. Yahagi Jockey: Sakai
St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy
Rating for the Derby: +++
Undefeated in all three of his races. Won this race stalking the lead by a visually impressive 7 lengths. The problem is threefold. The race itself was quite clumsy and uninspiring prior to the stretch. The lead disintegrated in this short 8f race and Forever Young capitalized. Based on the top tier lead-style colts here in the USA, that scenario most likely won't occur here. Numbers appear substantial for 10f especially with grand-sire Deep Impact, however, mares fall very short with additional assistance between the Intermediate and Classic speed that is required. He is still very immature and green at this point even though he had 3 successful runs so far. Basically, very unpolished and not as exciting based on some of his predecessors. Success in the UAE Derby may give him an extra star because that race demands forward speed, and this will give us the validation that he has matured and can spread his speed throughout a full race if he intends to remain a stalker.
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Dec 15, 2023 SPRINGBOARD MILE - Remington Park
OTTO THE CONQUEROR Results 8f dirt Muddy Final Time: 1:39.91
DP = 4-2-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 CD = 1.00
Mare Profile = 5-5-3-10-4 Speed = 10 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.86 Triads = 13-18-17
Street Sense - Dream It Is (Shackleford) Trainer: Asmussen Jockey: Gaffalione
St. Simon: 23.83%
Rating for the Derby: +++
There is only one reason why this colt received 3 stars as opposed to 2 stars. Based on his numbers at face value, these are definitely two stars for the Kentucky Derby but outside the listed Chefs he does drop all the way down to a 2.67 when all of his prominent non-chefs are added. This is, in and of itself, still off for the Derby, however, it does spell intrigue when judging the initial 4.00 Roman index. His style of running matches the 4.00, up front stalking. His mares are a bit under-par but the additional stamina he receives from the "outside" sires does dump more stamina into the mix. Whether this is enough to counteract it is anyone's guess at this point. The race was very slow and the muddy surface could have played a part in that. We need to gauge his speed capability on a very fast clean track in order to get a better handle on which way he lands. It could gravitate to the 4.00 or it can remain with the 2.67, which in turn, will keep that speed at bay. His previous race at Churchill at 7f, he won gate to wire but that was also a sloppy track. Faster performance but much shorter. We need to see killer speed, up front, that lasts a further distance on a clean track.
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Dec 16, 2023 LOS ALAMITOS DERBY - Los Alamitos
WYNSTOCK Results 8.5f dirt Fast Final Time: 1:43.53
DP = 3-4-11-0-0 (18) DI = 2.27 CD = 0.56
Mare Profile = 10-3-4-4-12 Speed = 13 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.84 Triads = 17-11-20
Solomini - Timberlea (Flatter) Trainer: Baffert Jockey: Kyle Frey
St. Simon: 18.75%
Rating for the Derby: ++
The 2.27 chef index with a split mare profile and split triads is not necessarily the best set-up for a shot at the roses. The 10f distance appears to be attainable based on the given configurations, but in that instance, the speed side would be lacking for advantage in Kentucky. On the flip side, his ANZ raises that speed all the way up to 3.36, which does show the presence of the additional advantaged speed required. He does run up on the lead which shows that he may indeed be taking a hold of those extra qualifications, however, based on the final odds it would appear that Wynstock was used as yet another rabbit. Typical Baffert playbook - using the stamina guy against the grain of how he wants to run in order to capitalize for his other runners. In addition, basically playing the victims for Baffert, the owners stated that they would not run in the Derby if Baffert couldn't remain the trainer. Extremely presumptuous on their part in assuming they already have a Derby contender. Their horse won an 8.5f race at DelMar against 4 other opponents, two of which come from Baffert's barn as well. Hardly the criteria to even consider for a top Derby player. Talk about snobbery and delusion! For those owners, well, looks like Wynstock won't be participating because his trainer will still be banned in 2024. No reason to even consider this guy either way.
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Dec 23, 2023 GUN RUNNER STAKES - Fairgrounds
TRACK PHANTOM Results 8.5f cloudy/fast Final Time: 1:44.42
DP = 1-2-5-0-0 (8) DI = 2.20 CD = 0.50
Mare Profile = 7-6-6-7-6 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.04 Triads = 19-19-19
Quality Road - Miss Sunset (Into Mischief) Trainer: Brad Cox Jockey: Torres
St. Simon: 19.34%
Rating for the Derby: ++++
Mixed feelings with this prep race. The over-hyped favorite, Nash, who is an easily read miler-type and not particularly well suited for Fairgrounds, left Phantom with a fairly bleak set of opponents in this race. Disappointing field with Phantom built the best for the track at this time of year. Not the typical chef numbers with the presence of Into Mischief, however, the mares follow perfect suit with the 19-19-19 triads (just like Timberlake). Balanced perfectly even across the board with the mares and stamina driven from the chefs. His chef numbers are not spectacular for Kentucky, but the mares are perfectly configured. He has the 10f distance and his 8.5f maiden race last out at Churchill was arguably a much better winning performance than this prep race. He had real competition in that race and he powered up front on the proper track, however the bias at Churchill in a November race is different than it will be in May. If entered next at a track like Aqueduct or Tampa Bay, he should continue ahead strong, but it would be much better to see him perform on a true speedy bias in a future prep instead. This is the type of track that the 2.20 colt will face in May if he gets that gate. An additional star would be highly in order once we see him compete successfully on a very fast track. We need to see how those chefs react to it. To be monitored going forward.
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Jan 1, 2024 SMARTY JONES STAKES - Oaklawn
CATCHING FREEDOM Results 8.5f fast Final Time: 1:44.59
DP = 2-5-3-0-0 (10) DI = 5.67 CD = 0.90
Mare Profile = 5-5-7-6-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 11 Index = 0.96 Triads = 17-18-18
Constitution - Catch My Drift (Pioneerof the Nile) Trainer: Brad Cox Jockey: Christian Torres
St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy
Rating for the Derby: +++ /// Upgrades to +++++
Rear-Running second generation Tapit son depicts the typical set-up of configurations that are not necessarily perfect for a win in the Derby, but have a half-decent shot at the board when there is an out of control pace to run into. Easily read in that scenario and since the last two editions of the Derby have been run with unrealistic fast paces, there is no reason why he wouldn't capitalize. The 10f is definitely attainable with Constitution and Tapit in the picture and he resembles all the other offspring in the past with the higher chef index at 5.67. Speed/Stamina Balance is much better with that index than the Tapit boys at 3.00 and under. Their stamina then becomes dominant, but the speed side is imperative for the Derby. For now, 3 stars is sufficient for this particular prep win and should he secure another, he'll rise to 4.
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Jan 6, 2024 JEROME STAKES - Aqueduct
DRUM ROLL PLEASE Results 8f cloudy/fast Final Time: 1:41.91
DP = 6-4-12-0-0 (22) DI = 2.67 CD = 0.73
Mare Profile = 2-5-8-12-3 Speed = 7 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.65 Triads = 15-25-23
Hard Spun - Imply (E Dubai) Trainer: Brad Cox Jockey: Castellano
St. Simon: Raise a Native → Whisk Broom
Rating for the Derby: +++
He gets 3 stars based only on the complete mare configurations, especially the triads. At face value, these are quintessential 12f Belmont Stakes numbers, but that will give him no advantage at Saratoga this year. This is the time of year when the "mid-range" colts enjoy their successes because of the track biases and colder winter weather. In normal times, they would suffer in May at Churchill in the spring. This, however, was not the case last year and the mid-range colts were the uncharacteristic board leaders in that edition. This Jerome Stakes was run at a snail's pace given the final time. Compared to Easy Goer in 1:32.40, this edition was a joke. Lead speed falters in many of these winter races as they lose advantage on the bias, but they regain as the weather switches during the milder months for the higher points preps. He will continue to do well if he competes again at Aqueduct, built well for that track. Maybe the Withers best suited for him to gain more points. He would suffer a great deal in a race like The Holy Bull, especially if Fierceness shows up there. He'd be running against the grain. Not the best set-up for a very speedy track unless his speedy competitors beat each other up going longer. He would be highly pace dependent on a fast track. Again, the mares line looks to be the best so far among all Derby prep winners so far in terms of inherited stamina, but the speed side will need to rise significantly in order to compete in May (or on a very fast track). Very intriguing mare configurations will allow him to stay on the radar for certain races along the way. The Withers, Tampa Bay Derby.
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Jan 20, 2024 LECOMTE STAKES - Fairgrounds
TRACK PHANTOM Results 8.5f fast Final Time: 1:44.73
DP = 1-2-5-0-0 (8) DI = 2.20 CD = 0.50
Mare Profile = 7-6-6-7-6 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.04 Triads = 19-19-19
Quality Road - Miss Sunset (Into Mischief) Trainer: Brad Cox Jockey: Rosario
St. Simon: 19.34%
Rating for the Derby: +++++ Â /// Drops to +++
Four stars from the Gun Runner Stakes rises to 5 stars today for one main reason - The Fairgrounds track was playing severely fast today and this was the main criteria for this particular horse. Fairgrounds at this time of the year is usually not quite as fast but it certainly ended up that way today. We had to see how his 2.20 chef index would react on a bias that was closer to Churchill in May and it passed with flying colors. Saudi Crown capitalized off of lead advantaged bias as well. Rear runners were stagnant. Phantom ran basically the same exact time in the Gun Runner Stakes and that day the track was not quite as fast. This is excellent for the way he is bred. Both sides appear very balanced. Since Track Phantom was able to run straight through his 2.20 index on that bias, he will be advantaged and successful at Churchill. His endurance is great for 10f. Interesting to see which Jockey gets the call.
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Feb 3, 2024 HOLY BULL STAKES Gulfstream
HADES Results 8.5f clear fast Final Time: 1:46.07
DP = 3-6-9-0-0 (18) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.67
Mare Profile = 10-3-4-4-12 Â Speed = 13 Â Stamina = 16 Â Index = 0.84 Â Triads = 17-11-20
Awesome Slew - Shady Lady (Quality Road) Trainer: Joseph Orseno Jockey: Paco Lopez
St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy
Rating for the Derby: +++
He has a combined 10.25f which is good for the 3 stars. Other than that, no additional stars get added because of the dismal speed shown. Split with the mares, obvious leaning towards the right side (speed) because of his running style, however, slow slow slow once he was there. Extremely poor call figures do not coincide with his lean to speed (even ANZ figure hikes to 3.89). The winner of the Holy Bull usually stands out with "fierce" final figures and built to withstand the 10f. He has the distance but he will absolutely need to prove himself going faster with a win, instead of being the lucky recipient of the favorite having a horrible break out of that gate. He won by outlining circumstances and this cannot be considered the same as if he had fair competition throughout the full race. This is the Kentucky Derby we are looking at, not an allowance race. With posting lead calls of 25.03 50.53 1:14.25 1:39.28 1:46.07 - especially at Gulfstream, this guy has a long way to go before he gets Derby attention.
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Feb 3, 2024 SOUTHWEST STAKES Oaklawn Park
MYSTIK DAN Results 8.5f showery muddy Final Time: 1:43.67
DP = 0-1-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.50
Mare Profile = 4-5-5-12-0 Â Speed = 9 Â Stamina = 12 Â Index = 1.06 Â Triads = 14-22-17
Goldencents - Ma'am (Colonel John) Trainer: Kenny McPeek Jockey: Brian Hernandez
St. Simon: 6.6%
Rating for the Derby: +++
Into Mischief son who capitalized off of the weather. All of his stamina competition fell to the bottom and the speedier guys rose to the occasion - at this distance. The fact that he prevailed over a Justify son (2nd place) and an Arrogate son (3rd place) is still a bit foggy in terms of which way things go from here because of that track surface. Based on his prior performances and the speedy slick mud, it would seem that this guy may tilt too far to the speed leaning side. He did his best running at 5.5f, 6.5f and a muddy 8.5f track. This makes him still a huge question mark for a 10f run, especially if its not raining. The fact that every "killer stamina" entry on that field had a hard time moving on that track, it is safe to say that Dan will need to show so much more moving forward. It is the ones who did poorly in this race who have the proper credentials for a fast clean track at Churchill. For now, he remains average.
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Feb 3, 2024 ROBERT B. LEWIS Santa Anita (1st - NYSOS - N/A and 2nd - WINE ME UP - N/A)
3rd - SCATIFY Results 8f clear fast Final Time: 1:36.65
DP = 2-5-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80 Â CD = 0.75
Mare Profile = 10-1-7-7-8 Â Speed = 11 Â Stamina = 15 Â Index = 0.93 Â Triads = 18-15-22
Justify - Broadway Run (Prospective) Trainer: John Sadler Jockey: Hector Berrios
Rating for the Derby: +++
Since Baffert feels the need to take points away from his fellow trainers, I've decided to acknowledge the Derby contender who hits under going forward. Based on the amount of highly successful colts coming from Justify with his 2nd crop and the types of surfaces and tracks that they are winning at, there is a slight feeling that this guy may be running against the grain - possibly burning his energy getting too swept up on a fast track, making him run at a much more rapid pace too early. It is just a feeling at this point and unfortunately, there is no evidence to back it. His configurations are really nice for the 10f Derby but, visually, he was so smoked at this 8f distance that the appearance looked bad, but it may not be his fault. His call figures were way too fast, 46.67 at the half. He was swept on it. This guy needs to run out of California to bring out that beautiful stamina inheritance on the proper surface. He's loaded otherwise. Until then, he will remain stagnant at 3 stars.
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Feb 3, 2024 WITHERS STAKES Aqueduct
UNCLE HEAVY Results 9f Muddy Sealed Final Time: 1:53.79
DP = 2-1-1-0-0 (4) DI = 7.00 Â CD = 1.25
Mare Profile = 4-8-4-11-3 Â Speed = 12 Â Stamina = 14 Â Index = 0.95 Â Triads = 16-23-18
Social Inclusion - Expect Wonderful (Tiz Wonderful) Trainer: Robert Reid Jockey: Mychel Sanchez
Rating for the Derby: ++
ANZ figure jumps to an 11.00, two short wins at Parx, one clunker, and one win on a sloppy wet fast track at 9f where the two leads burned each other up is hardly Derby material. His configurations match the biases and distances he has accomplished so far, but we definitely would need to see his ability on a more neutral track to gauge endurance. It would have been a completely different story had it not rained and he won this race at this specific track. But then again, he probably would not have won it. He could only gain in his star ratings from here after he shows that he is not all about that heightened index. The opportunity is surely there because he only has 4 points in his chefs line and the triads aren't half bad. To revisit if he grabs more Derby points.
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Feb 10, 2024 SAM F. DAVIS Tampa Bay
NO MORE TIME Results 8.5f Clear Fast Final Time: 1:43.26
DP = 2-3-11-0-0 (16) DI = 1.91 Â CD = 0.44
Mare Profile = 6-9-4-7-2 Â Speed = 15 Â Stamina = 9 Â Index = 1.67 Â Triads = 19-20-13
Not This Time - Baroness Juliette (Speightstown) Trainer: D'Angelo Jockey: Paco Lopez
Rating for the Derby: ++ Rating for the Preakness: ++++
Great performance in this race, jetting wire to wire and with very impressive 2nd and 3rd call figures of 46.61 and 1:10.81. He was only a second and a half off the track record as well. His sire, Not This Time, bestows additional killer speed, his index rises from 1.91 all the way up to 3.00 when adding in the outside influential sires. His mares are completely tilted to the speed extreme. In terms of stamina, his inheritance through the bottom of his chart falls way below Epicenter and slightly under Simplification - which gives him a much better alliance with the Preakness as opposed to the Kentucky Derby. He should remain on target with the distance of another Prep win at 9f and has a very sharp chance of gaining his gate. Depending on his post and should he secure the lead, he would be reliable for a very quickened pace - which would have a great effect on the lead tier again. Very nice colt that is built well for the Preakness and the Derby Road itself but lacks a bit for the Derby itself.
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Feb. 17, 2024 RISEN STAR STAKES Fairgrounds
SIERRA LEONE Results 9f Showery/Sloppy Sealed Final Time: 1:52.13
DP = 2-2-8-0-0 (12) DI = 2.00 Â CD = 0.50
Mare Profile = 5-3-5-6-8 Â Speed = 8 Â Stamina = 14 Â Index = 0.67 Â Triads = 13-14-19
Gun Runner - Heavenly Love (Malibu Moon) Trainer: Chad Brown Jockey: Gaffalione
Rating for the Derby: +++
Even though his performance in this 9f contest was highly successful against a very slow pace, we need to hold off on the extra 4th star until his final prep. His configurations are not necessarily geared for a win in the Derby, they are more board hit. The other reason is that his last two fantastic performances at 9f were both on a sloppy sealed track. One of two things need to be sorted out with this. Did he perform to the higher standard because he favors that type of track or was he successful because the others just didn't like it? One more race before the Derby, hopefully it is a clean track, and then we can gauge how he fares in that situation at the 9f distance. One thing is for sure, if Derby Day ends up raining, we know he has a huge advantage on a bias that he obviously likes. Face value, these are board hit numbers and possible winning numbers on a sloppy track. We need a clean track in the final prep for better judgement.
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Feb. 18, 2024 HYACINTH STAKES Tokyo Racecourse
RAMJET Replay Approx. 8f Final Time: 1:36.3
DP = 5-11-12-0-0 (28) DI = 3.67 Â CD = 0.75
Mare Profile = 7-3-2-7-10 Â Speed = 10 Â Stamina = 17 Â Index = 0.66 Â Triads = 12-12-19
Majestic Warrior - Nefertiti (Gold Allure) Trainer: Sazaki Jockey: Miura
Rating for the Derby: ++++
He will receive one extra star over 8f Zen-Nippon winner, Forever Young from December. While Ramjet is built with a bit more stamina that coincides better for the Derby, the difference in the final time with reference to speed stands out even more. I had to triple check to make sure it was recorded correctly. Both at the 1600 meters, Forever Young clocked 1:43.5, and Ramjet at 1:36.3. In all fairness, we are unable to ascertain the condition of the surfaces (however I did read Yielding for the Zen-Nippon) but on time alone, Ramjet set that clock on fire. Forever Young heads to the Saudi Derby in 4 days to face major competition and his performance will tell a lot on a different bias. In the mean time, Ramjet is firmly on the road to a gate once he tackles either the Fukuryu on March 23 or the UAE Derby on March 30. In addition, Unquenchable, 2nd place finisher in the Hyacinth, clipped heels mid-race and still persevered. He has another shot as well as we move forward from the Japan side.
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Feb. 18, 2024 SUNLAND DERBY Sunland Park
STRONGHOLD Results 8.5f Clear fast Final Time: 1:42.64
DP = 2-4-6-0-0 (12) DI = 3.00 Â CD = 0.67
Mare Profile = 10-4-2-8-4 Â Speed = 14 Â Stamina = 12 Â Index = 1.44 Â Triads = 16-14-14
Rating for the Derby: +
A fine example of the type of mare profile, scale, balance, index and triads that are in complete and total opposition of any advantage in the Kentucky Derby. Suited much better for the Preakness, and even then, it's pushing it.
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The Derby Road will continue to new article PART TWO. Next stop, the Rebel Stakes and Condition Stakes.
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