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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

2024 Arkansas Derby

ARKANSAS DERBY - Oaklawn Park 9f

Tier One:

Post 5 Liberal Arts

DP = 2-12-2-0-0 (16) DI = 15.00   CD = 1.00

Mare Profile = 4-5-5-9-6   Speed = 9   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.69   Triads = 14-19-20

This race appears to be a match race between Muth and Timberlake, two favorites with low odds. So how does one bet this race without gambling more than the profit will exceed. I'm looking right here to use this horse in a very strategic way. His numbers are absolutely phenomenal. Son of Arrogate with built-in killer speed and stamina through the roof. He runs from the rear which hindered his late acceleration in his last two races on the muddy and wet tracks but he still moved forward none-the-less. This guy is sitting at # 11 on the DHC Dirty Dozen for February for a reason. HE IS STACKED to the rafters and has the full ingredients to surprise on a nice clean track in the 100 point race. I'm going for it.


Post 2 Timberlake

DP = 2-2-6-4-0 (14) DI = 1.00   CD = 0.14

Mare Profile = 7-8-4-7-8   Speed = 15   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.96   Triads = 19-19-19

Brad Cox going for three straight victories in a row. He won it with Flavien Prat last year with Angel of Empire and he climbs back aboard the favorite again for 2024. The extra 1/16th is nothing for this guy and has nowhere to go but even higher up. This guy is a loaded Into Mischief son with a 1.00 stamina index. No chance of betting against that. He has one other main foe in here, Muth, who has already beat him to the wire once before, but the maturity has really kicked up a notch for him since then. In addition, that was his opponents home turf and realistically, Timberlake's configurations are not particularly suited for Santa Anita. A more mature colt on a more suitable surface with better position would have left the single on top right here but odds make me consider Liberal Arts as well. Timberlake is already a 5 star horse for the Kentucky Derby and if he solidifies a win against Baffert's speed, his stock rises even higher for the May race. Evidence of killer winnable speed with his stamina configurations would be the Ace in the Pocket. Big race for this guy.


Post 7 Muth

DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.63

Mare Profile = 6-7-3-6-7   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.96   Triads = 16-16-16

Being the son of Good Magic shines the necessary stamina for the distance here. Baffert is no stranger to the winners circle in this race either with Bodemeister, American Pharoah, Charlatan and Nadal and he ships very well. Ran a very impressive mid-race in the Breeders Juvenile. Even though his greedy trainer has no problem with throwing points into the trash and highly affecting the other trainers, his horse is situated correctly to work this race. Mind over matter will cause this gambler to use him underneath. There is no way I could scream for him to win. I may rip up my tickets in the end, but so be it.


Post 1 Will Take It

DP = 5-11-13-1-0 (30) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.67

Mare Profile = 11-5-2-5-5   Speed = 16   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.71   Triads = 18-12-12 (1st gen Tapit)

Sensational configurations from a 1st generation Tapit son. ANZ jumps to 3.53 with 34 points. Two races back, he hated the muddy surface. Last race at Oaklawn, he looks as though he is beginning to learn what he is built on. He bests the rest in Tier Two colts listed below and should he upgrade off his last on a clean track on Saturday, he absolutely has the muscle to stake a claim somewhere. Half decent longshot for the board and will use him with the one below.


Post 9 Mystik Dan

DP = 0-1-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 4-5-5-12-0   Speed = 9   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.06   Triads = 14-22-17

Into Mischief son with a bit more chef stamina than norm and the typical setup with the triads for one of his sons. That's a nice recipe for 9f. Aided by the thick mud in his last race will not carry over to this one, but his configurations keep him above the second tier for board hit potential. I'll use him and the one just above to fill out the bottom of the super.


Tier Two:

Post 8 Just Steel

DP = 2-4-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00   CD = 0.80

Mare Profile = 9-4-6-9-4   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.22   Triads = 19-19-19

Son of Justify with spectacular configurations, however, he has yet to fully display what he is built on. This will be his 11th race for such a young horse, overworked you might say. It's a shame because Justify's boys are tearing it up on all surfaces, but this guy appears to prefer the mud. Superstition may force a very low board hit nod though if grabbing from the lower end top tier and if I feel the extra cost is worth the gamble. Most likely not.


Post 3 Dimatic

DP = 1-4-7-0-0 (12) DI = 2.43   CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 7-3-5-7-6   Speed = 10   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.92   Triads = 15-15-18 (Tapit)

This guy needs distance, distance, and more distance. He is not a speed demon, nor does he display extreme natural speed. Even and steady as long as the track wants to go. This is a 12f Belmont Stakes type of guy and unfortunate for him, no go for that distance this year. Tapit and Candy Ride is a great set-up but he may need more time to percolate because of it.


Post 10 Imperial Gun

DP = 2-3-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.70

Mare Profile = 2-4-7-10-5   Speed = 6   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.56   Triads = 13-21-22

Another Gun Runner colt completely washed in stamina and sits in line with Dimatic. He has everything he needs to be a success in the future but he still needs time to grow into his speed side. This is a natural occurrence with the Candy Ride line, unless of course, your name is Shared Belief. Faltering speed in this race aids all the stamina guys but not likely at the 9f distance with that top tier.


Post 6 Informed Patriot

DP = 3-6-13-0-0 (22) DI = 2.38   CD = 0.55

Mare Profile = 4-5-5-9-4   Speed = 9   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.82   Triads = 14-19-18

Midrange colt who runs extremely steady and evenly across the board. No punch on either side and typical of this type of set-up. He has the 9f easily but at a very steady pace. He has not shown anything that truly stands out along the line (like Sierra Leone and Dornoch) with the configurations - yet.


Post 4 Time For Truth

DP = 3-4-7-0-0 (14) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.71

Mare Profile = 8-3-7-4-6   Speed = 11   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.13   Triads = 18-14-17

Omaha Beach son whose index rises to 5.29 with the prominent non-chefs influence added in. That's a big hike. His poor energy distribution is a dead give-away that he favors that 5.29 to a huge degree. It only gets worse with the added distance here.


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