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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

2023 Derby Prep Winners Analysis - Part One


ANALYSIS PERTAINS TO KENTUCKY DERBY POTENTIAL AND HAS NO BEARING ON FUTURE DERBY PREPS.

Updated Weekly. Ratings at 1 star to 5 stars.



9/17/2022 - Iroquois Stakes - Churchill Downs

CURLY JACK Results Chart - 8.5f dirt (Final Time 1:45.62 - clear/fast)

DP = 4-3-7-0-0 (14) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.79

Mare Profile = 5-6-5-10-7 Speed = 11 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.72 Triads = 16-21-22

St. Simon: Top line-breeds to Teddy Bias Preference: Pace meltdown, unforgiving tracks

Rating for the Derby: +++

First, we address Echo Again. Saratoga bias in his maiden allowed him to beat the disadvantaged speedsters in that race. As noted in the last article, not a good idea to bet him in the Iroquois because that maiden win was aided by the deep track. It affected his speedy contenders in the same manner that it affected Olympiad in the Whitney. This shows the importance of looking at those numbers for any contender in any race coming up who ran at Saratoga between July 14th and mid-August. Now, on to Curly Jack. This horse was used as the example of the "Player" while Damon's Mound was the "Hype" in the Hype vs. the Player article back on July 12th. You can spot those killer numbers a mile away! Yes, he does have the proper set-up for the Kentucky Derby but he only gets 3 stars for now because he is pace dependent with those mares configurations. His speed is lacking a great deal but he has the stamina to persevere if things break down up front. Think Rich Strike, built very similarly to him. Curly Jack has 10.4f capability so he would have no problem traveling the Derby distance, but he would need a pace meltdown to back him up for the wire. We must see if he upgrades on the speed side as he matures. He has to overcome total dependence on the limitations of his foes to get the job done at the wire. Very important going forward.

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9/24/2022 - The Royal Lodge - New Market

THE FOXES (Ire) - 8f turf

DP = 2-0-17-15-2 (36) DI = 0.41 CD = -0.42

Mare Profile = 5-8-4-9-6 Speed = 13 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.88 Triads = 17-21-19

Rating for the Kentucky Derby: + (turf) Rating for the Epsom Derby: +++

Both Grand-sires are listed chefs: Galileo (C,S) and Darshaan (S) and with 36 points he would have been sensational if an American dirt runner, but that is not the case here.

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9/24/2022 - Alan Smurfit - Beresford

CRYPTO FORCE (GB)- Curragh

DP = 2-4-11-13-0 (30) DI = 0.62 CD = -0.17

Mare Profile = 5-7-2-13-8 Speed = 12 Stamina = 21 Index = 0.61 Triads = 14-22-23

Rating for the Kentucky Derby: + (turf) Rating for the Epsom Derby: ++++

Just like above, both Grand-sires are listed chefs: Galileo (C,S) and this time Dubawi (I,S). Incredible chart and numbers for turf and gets an extra star for the Epsom based on the amazing stamina with a bit extra in speed. Just look at their Solid slots in the chefs profiles! Both overseas winners this weekend have Epicenter-type balance but they don't have the dirt bias.

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10/1/2022 - Champagne Stakes - Aqueduct

BLAZING SEVENS Results Chart 8f dirt Final Time 1:37.07 - sloppy

DP = 3-6-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 5-6-6-6-9 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.73 Triads = 17-18-21

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy Bias Preference: need more evidence - off track win.

Rating for the Derby: +++

Game Winner colt who has 10.4f in him. Went back and forth between 4 stars and 3 stars and final settled for the 3 after the initial excitement wore off. At first, was very impressed but something is off because of the bias. It would appear that either the top flight was swept faster on it, thereby losing their late energy quicker or the sloppy bias was deeper and more tiring to the front. I would tend to think it was the latter based on Top Recruit losing his footing at the start and not moving from the back. Deep and tiring mud as opposed to a slick skating rink. When there are other circumstances surrounding a win, in this case, the tougher mud, it tends to skew what would otherwise be a stellar performance against the speed with his configurations. When it comes to the Kentucky Derby, there must be specific evidence from the "players who have the distance" that they can compete on their own merit and not because they capitalized off the surface. If he does that again on a clean surface, he'll get another star. The whole thing is reminding me of Instilled Regard who grabbed his 4th in the sloppy Derby coming from way back and capitalizing off of retreating horses. I can see Blazing Sevens doing the same at 10f. Not impressed with any of the players because they lost all energy on that bias at 8f. We need more proof and fortunately, we certainly have the time.

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10/2/2022 - Prix du Jean Luc Lagardere - Longchamp

BELBEK (FR) - Turf

DP = 1-5-2-2-0 (10) DI = 2.33 CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 8-4-2-12-5 Speed = 12 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.92 Triads = 14-18-19

Rating for the Kentucky Derby: ++ Rating for the Belmont Stakes: +++

Free ticket to the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. Doubtful to transition to dirt to compete in Kentucky. If there was any transition with these configurations, they would have a much better shot in New York in the Belmont Stakes.

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10/8/2022 - American Pharoah Stakes - Santa Anita

CAVE ROCK Results Chart 8.5f dirt Final Time 1:43.05 clear fast

DP = 2-14-5-1-0 (22) DI = 5.29 CD = 0.77

Mare Profile = 6-3-3-9-6 Speed = 9 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.75 Triads = 12-15-18

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy Bias Preference: As fast as you can get it.

Rating for the Derby: I will not do it.

Leave it to Baffert to present this ridiculous puzzle. Absolutely dreadful triads, chefs profile highly dominant in 7f to 9f range and over 5x the inherited speed over stamina from the chefs. The horse is running directly in line with those three aspects. On the flip side, he has a low chef CD and a very low mare index with a 6 point spread leaning to stamina and calculating to 10.35f distance capability. Shoot me now. He has everything for the 10f Derby except that he is sporting horrible and unworkable triads. As far as reines, he has but one, only one, in the first 4 generations of his chart. This horse is the epitome of a Baffert Clone and completely odd and almost unreadable for the Derby. Would we expect anything less for the start of the 2023 season? Another year of all cameras on this horse for the Juvenile with Baffert's arrogant smirk and hype plastered all over the TV screen. So begins the long and drawn out Baffert's gushing "second coming of American Pharoah" (who just so happens to come from the same barn yet again) - masking everything that lies beneath. Isn't this guy supposed to be banned? Will we ever be rid of this same replay year after year? Nothing against the innocent horse but these numbers make no sense, as usual. When will sportscasters actually realize the same speedy bias at Santa Anita and discuss Baffert's incessant pathetic playbook? Year after year, the same souped up horse who will have 5 or 6 races in his career and then command 100k in the breeding shed because of the fkn hype that they caused. And no one will ever ever question it until its too late. Say hello to your Derby Favorite in Yakteen's barn for the first week in May.

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10/8/2022 - Breeders Futurity - Keeneland

FORTE Results Chart 8.5f dirt Final Time 1:44.74 clear fast

DP = 4-4-5-1-0 (14) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.79

Mare Profile = 11-2-5-1-11 Speed = 13 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.04 Triads = 18-8-17

St. Simon: Storm Cat → Nearco → St. Simon 18.75% Bias Preference: Pace Meltdown

Rating for the Derby: +

He has horrible mare configurations, awful triads and a combined inheritance of approx 9.25f. No chance in the Derby. But the one who lost by a neck in this race certainly has it:


LOGGINS

DP = 2-6-6-0-0 (14) DI = 3.67 CD = 0.71

Mare Profile = 4-4-6-10-4 Speed = 8 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.75 Triads = 14-20-20

St. Simon: Blushing Groom → Blandford Bias Preference: Not pace dependent at all.

Rating for the Derby: ++++

Every number in both configurations points directly to a player in the Derby. Beautiful combined set-up. 10.4f optimum. The only first flight colt in the race to charge down that stretch with that pace. Severe display of determination that does not get better than that. Highly doubt Forte ever beats him again. Fantastic Derby prospect and one who has what it takes to take on Cave Rock in the Juvenile. At least he didn't put in that performance on the wrong bias! His stellar performance on that track was 100x better than Cave Rock's at Santa Anita with all of his stablemates providing blockage but you won't hear about that on Breeder's day. Major player for the Derby here and deserves a Future's Pool wager with these numbers and that performance against Forte who interfered with him and got away with it. Notice the final time, that is a Keeneland time, not one from Santa Anita. That is real vs. exaggerated. This guy is a keeper.

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Oct. 22, 2022 Vertem Futurity - Doncaster

AUGUSTE RODIN

DP = 3-4-15-8-0 (30) DI = 0.94 CD = 0.07

Mare Profile = 7-4-1-10-8 Speed = 11 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.70 Triads = 12-15-19

Rating for the Kentucky Derby: turf Rating for the Epsom Derby: +++++

This horse is a beast in the making. Incredible breeding with Sire Deep Impact and Grand-sire Sunday Silence with Second Generation chef Galileo under. Major stamina top and bottom as usual. Aiden O'Brien's 11th win in this race. We won't see him in our Derby, but he sure will be pointed to the Epsom. Maybe next year's Breeders turf. This is a very good horse, so good that I put his name as the winner yesterday, no need to even wait for the race. He was pretty much a lock. Great name as well. His mare line is completely tipped to the right and he is sporting a .07 CD. Beautiful overseas numbers with a "master" trainer on that surface. Aiden O'Brien knows how to get a 2 year old ready for success. He also has a beautiful face, looks just like Honor Code. One to watch if you play overseas.

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Nov. 4, 2022 Breeders Cup Juvenile - Keeneland

FORTE Results Chart 8.5f dirt Final Time 1:43.06 clear fast

DP = 4-4-5-1-0 (14) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.79

Mare Profile = 11-2-5-1-11 Speed = 13 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.04 Triads = 18-8-17

St. Simon: Storm Cat → Nearco → St. Simon 18.75% Bias Preference: Pace Meltdown

Rating for the Derby: ++

Upped his rating from one star in the Futurity to two stars in the Juvenile for the Derby. I would imagine if he successfully continues to show his determination with each progression along the way and away from Keeneland, he'll get an added star. The mares numbers, while not in sync with tradition and are configured improperly for the May race, there are some who have hit the board with that type of mare balance. Zandon comes to mind. In addition, while the mare profile is split, it is not split to the far extremes (brilliant to professional) but split BETWEEN the speed and stamina wings. This is rough for a win but not for a board hit, so in that sense he could be a player if he can continue to display even amounts of both sides.

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Nov. 26, 2022 CATTLEYA SHO - Tokyo

CONTINUAR

DP = 2-1-9-2-0 (14) DI = 1.15 CD = 0.21

Mare Profile = 4-6-3-12-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.68 Triads = 13-21-20

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: Need More Time tracking Info

Son of Drefong filled to the brim with raw stamina, winning on soft dry dirt just shy of 8f. Fantastic performance for a horse built like this. Trainer stated after the race that he is heading to Saudi, then Dubai, then maybe Kentucky. There is no doubt that this horse has the distance and the speed he showed was fantastic. Not even going to give it a second thought until we see his performance in the UAE Derby in March. His numbers are killer and the distance is there.

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Nov. 26, 2022 KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB - Churchill Downs

INSTANT COFFEE Results Chart 8.5f dirt Final Time: 1:45.25 clear fast

DP = 4-5-4-1-0 (14) DI = 3.67 CD = 0.86

Mare Profile = 9-5-3-6-7 Speed = 14 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.13 Triads = 17-14-16

St. Simon: 18.35%

Rating for the Derby: ++

Short and to the point with the winner. He will be fine on the Derby Road, but once he steps into the gate in the Derby, he fails before the stretch. The horse who really stood out in this race was the 3rd place finisher Hayes Strike. Didnt take my eyes off that horse from his first step out of that gate until the wire. His break was not the best, he was behind a wall of horses, came out to the 5 path and ran into a very slow front group. He lost 2nd by a neck and was only a bit more than 1-1/4 lengths behind the slow winner. Hayes Strike showed severe determination in his trip based on the way he is built. He is well configured for the Belmont Stakes, which means the Derby distance is an easy game. He is the one to continue to watch going forward. The further the tracks go, the better he will perform. Listed in Pool One article as a colt to keep an eye on to see if he can display speed - and he did not disappoint today in that regard, even in defeat. 8.5f is way too short for him and he made his way up front. Reminds me a great deal of Country House and will probably have a very similar resume by the time he gets to the Derby. Hot horse.

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December 3, 2022 REMSEN STAKES - Aqueduct

DUBYUHNELL Results Chart 9f dirt Final Time: 1:50.88 showery/sloppy (sealed)

DP = 1-4-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.60

Mare Profile = 3-7-3-9-7 Speed = 10 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.62 Triads = 13-19-19

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy Bias Preference: Indeterminable at this point.

Rating for the Derby: +++ For the Belmont: +++++

In true "Remsen Fashion", the loaded mare stamina found in these numbers gave him advantage. He won because his mare configurations aligned straight with the bias. "Derby numbers" are advantaged in the Remsen, and this is how it is won year after year. Based on results throughout the day, this particular muddy surface made it even harder for speedy types and rear runners. This was a "bias-oriented" win, with the track doing just as much work as the horse. Deep and tiring mud added to the already stamina slant of the bias. That being said, several important points can be extracted. With a scale that caters much more to the Belmont, these numbers get him the Derby distance but the scale and the bias for Churchill is wrong unless there is a pace meltdown. This is seen in the majority of winners from this race as well. This is how the Aqueduct bias plays at this time of year, it caters to overt stamina. That is not how the bias works at Churchill in the spring. It is opposite. The rain conditions made the surface even worse. It may have seemed like a flashy win but it was all bias playing straight into his breeding. He will not find as much favor on the Churchill bias (unless we have a deep, tiring, muddy track that adversely affects speed like Orb's Derby) even with the obvious ability to go past the 10f distance, but he will at Belmont. If this horse takes a road through Tampa Bay, Turfway Park or maybe even Fairgrounds, he will continue to perform at a high level. If he competes on faster and slicker tracks, he will have alot of proving to do. He is all stamina. This horse will be an excellent example of how the bias works in conjunction with breeding as it relates to placement. He is the very first USA horse on this list to get a 5 star rating, but it is for the Belmont Stakes. His 3 stars will change if he proves himself away from a tougher bias that harshly affects his speedier foes. The 2nd place finisher is a different story.


ARCTIC ARROGANCE

DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 11-4-2-4-8 Speed = 15 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.27 Triads = 17-10-14 (2nd gen Tapit)

St. Simon: 10.16% Bias Preference: Strong potential to not being pace dependent. Both biases.

Rating for the Derby: ++++

Tapit's stamina aided this horse for the Aqueduct bias, but the glaring difference is that 4.33 speed index that BALANCES him for what is necessary to compete at Churchill. He proved in this race that he is capturing that stamina because of that tough bias and he has that absolute speed to carry over to Kentucky. This is a balanced scale with the ability through his breeding to capture advantage on both types of bias. Speed on top with ample Tapit stamina.

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December 14, 2022 ZEN NIPPON NISSAI

DERMA SOTOGAKE replay approx 8f dirt

DP = 1-1-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 8-2-5-9-6 Speed = 10 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.88 Triads = 15-16-20

Rating for the Derby: Need More Time

Need to look into him to track all figures from Japan. The distance is there.

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December 17, 2022 LOS ALAMITOS FUTURITY - Los Alamitos

PRACTICAL MOVE Results Chart 8.5f dirt Final Time: 1:40.03

DP = 1-0-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00 CD = 1.00

Mare Profile = 6-5-5-11-4 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.92 Triads = 16-21-20

St. Simon: Hail To Reason → Plucky Liege Bias Preference: Speed bias.

Rating for the Derby: ++++

My apologies for allowing Baffert and Yakteen to get into my head. Im putting a stop to it immediately and will only deal with the horses from here on out. Looking back at it rationally, Carmel Road was better built with his 5.50 and did have a better style for the Santa Anita bias at 8.5f than his other two. 5.50 lead speed at 8.5f at Santa Anita is very advantageous and the fact that he could not connect on Keeneland's bias meant that he would have a greater shot at exploding back on his home turf. Major blunder to think otherwise but after all is said and done, Carmel Road should stay put on that bias and that distance. Practical Move is "much better built for the 10f Derby" than Baffert's crew which means he ran a fantastic race at this speedy distance on that bias. He is all mares with only 2 points in his chefs profile. His set-up should get him to approx 11 to 11.25 from the mares alone. Some of that distance will get knocked off from what little influence he takes from his chefs. Even if that comes to a full furlong, he still has the Derby distance easily. Being an Into Mischief boy, his 2 point chef profile is not as detrimental as it normally would be and his mares set-up is quite nice, although it is still against a win in the Derby. These are board-hit numbers. The fact that he displayed winning speed at only 8.5f at Santa Anita with those triads is saying that this guy could really be a player for the Derby Tote Board. He ran a nice race on that bias. From here on out, no mention of Baffert again, with eyes only on the colts themselves - it only serves to cloud proper judgement on the colt's configurations. Eye on the prize.

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December 17, 2022 SPRINGBOARD MILE - Remington

WILDATLANTICSTORM Results Chart 8f dirt Final Time: 1:38.24

DP = 3-5-10-0-0 (18) DI = 2.60 CD = 0.61

Mare Profile = 7-7-4-3-12 Speed = 14 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.81 Triads = 18-14-19

St. Simon: 62.90% Bias Preference: Strong potential to not being pace dependent, lead with stamina

Rating for the Derby: +++

The Springboard generally produces nothing of significance for the Kentucky Derby. Both profiles are average and the triads are lacking. With those facts in mind, normally that would warrant only one or two stars. But there are 3 things that give him a slight boost. His damsire is Big Brown who had severe dominance in the Classic distance. When looking at all prominent non-chefs and looking at the ANZ figure, Wildatlantic shoots up to a 4.20 chef index. There we find the necessary inbred speed to tilt the scale. The most impressive part is the 62.90% that line-breeds directly to St. Simon. That is massive. As with all midrange category contenders, he must show brilliance along the way. His style is very good for his set-up. Most important for this guy is to continue to run in this same manner away from Remington Park. He has 10.5f in him and it appears that he his capturing his non-chef speed by his style of running. He needs to get away from this track and we need to monitor this 2.60 guy, regardless of the Springboard being a less than ideal prep race. Midrange horses do hit the board in the Derby when they have a resume of beating speed, just like the stamina guys. Wildatlantic certainly has quite a few exceptional points in his back pocket. He will gain an additional star if he replicates this win outside of Remington. If it weren't for the 14 in the Classic slot of the triads and the location of the prep, he would have the extra star already. We need to monitor this guy. Second place finisher, half-brother Giant Mischief, ran a tremendous race in defeat and is too good for that prep race. Built very well for the Derby going forward.

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December 26, 2022 GUN RUNNER STAKES - Fairgrounds

JACE'S ROAD Results Chart 8.5f Dirt Final Time: 1:44.85

DP = 2-2-6-0-0 (10) DI = 2.33 CD = 0.60

Mare Profile = 12-1-3-4-11 Speed = 13 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.97 Triads = 16-8-18

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy Bias Preference: Fair Tracks/Not Slick

Rating for the Derby: +++

This guy is a bit odd with his style and his balance. He is a forwardly placed front runner who does not do well on fast tracks (or wet tracks). For a bit of perspective, he is built very similarly to Zandon, who came from the rear and prefered the same type of track. Now we have Jace's Road who does not need to make up so much ground with the same type of balance. He has 10.2f in him but he has the same type of energy distribution as Early Voting. While the win in this race seemed flashy, Jace's Road had no competition out front, his early speed much better than the rest of the field going in. Based on his style and his 10.2f capability, he gets 3 stars BUT there is a strong probability that he will get knocked down to 2 if he does not replicate his energy on a fast track moving forward. It will get raised to 4 if he runs well on a faster track. He needs both sides and at this point, we only have evidence of one side.

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January 1, 2023 SMARTY JONES - Oaklawn

VICTORY FORMATION Results 8f Dirt Final Time: 1:38.14

DP = 5-8-9-0-0 (22) DI = 3.89 CD = 0.82

Mare Profile = 10-4-4-10-5 Speed = 14 Stamina = 15 Index = 1.17 Triads = 18-18-19 (2nd gen Tapit)

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy Bias Preference: Lead or Stalk on any bias. Both sides covered and already displayed

Rating for the Derby: +++++

YES!!! Our very first Prep winner with 5 stars for the Kentucky Derby. Fantastic that we have this horse from Pool One at 74 to 1 already. That is the beauty of reading those numbers before placing a future bet, especially in Pool One! Thrilling! Second generation Tapit with a chef index way ABOVE 3.00 who displays forward speed. Easy lock! But what stands out even greater here is that he is not holding the typical (sub-par) set of triads that come through a chart with Tapit's line. His triads are really spectacular with that Tapit influence. That triad set-up is very rare with a 1st or 2nd gen Tapit offspring. His mares give him advantage on speedy tracks and the sires aid on the harder and longer tracks. He is set for both sides, and he has proven already that he is capturing it all with both biases covered. Running directly in line with his numbers already. Major Major Derby Player. I also want to mention DENINGTON, 3rd place in this race. Like most descendants from Candy Ride, they have a tendency to blossom later. Based on how he is built and his late determination in the Smarty Jones, I suspect that his time will eventually come to fruition. They bloom later in the season. Built with substantial stamina, his speed should reveal itself in due time.

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January 7, 2023 JEROME STAKES - Aqueduct

LUGAN KNIGHT Results 8f Dirt Final Time: 1:37.77

DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.63

Mare Profile = 7-6-7-6-2 Speed = 13 Stamina = 8 Index = 1.59 Triads = 20-19-15

St. Simon: Storm Cat → Nearco

Rating for the Derby: +

Nicely built for the 8f distance of the Jerome today with a 3.00 index and all speed from the mares. The top of his chart is fine, however, his mares profile, scale, balance, index and Triads are the epitome of what does not work at Churchill Downs at 10f. He will continue to show his speed but he hits a wall at about 9f. The second place finisher, Arctic Arrogance is quite the opposite when it comes to thriving at further distances. Do not hold his inability to pass in the stretch at 8f against him. He was a game second and nowhere near his preferred distance. Lugan Knight ran today closer to his preferred distance; therefore, he held the advantage.

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January 8, 2023 The SHAM STAKES - Santa Anita

REINCARNATE Results 8f dirt Final Time: 1:35.87

DP = 2-3-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.70

Mare Profile = 6-5-5-7-8 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.79 Triads = 16-17-20

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: will revisit if he wins again

While the distance is there for the Derby, the mare's configurations are a bit ho-hum. Good Magic is passing through good stamina to his offspring, but the mare's index is too "safe", and the triads are okay but not strong enough to match some of the others. He did well at Santa Anita but tragically the best on the field, Spun Intended, left the field, which resulted in Reincarnate up against 2 stablemates and a dud. Between his boring configurations and a complete throw-out of a race, it is almost like the Prep race never existed. The opening 1/4 was run in a fast 22.28 and half in 45.57 on the fast bias of that track and it basically set it up for Reincarnate's stamina after all is said and done. His figures are okay, but they are not the WOW that is required in the Derby. Because he has the distance and the race is basically a toss, we can revisit and judge him accordingly if he wins again.

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January 21, 2023 LECOMTE STAKES - Fairgrounds

INSTANT COFFEE Results 8.5f dirt Final Time: 1:45.12

DP = 4-5-4-1-0 (14) DI = 3.67 CD = 0.86

Mare Profile = 9-5-3-6-7 Speed = 14 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.13 Triads = 17-14-16

St. Simon: 18.35% Bias Preference - Late Runner, reliant on failing lead speed.

Rating for the Derby: ++

Rating stays the same from the Kentucky Jockey Club to this prep. He's bred very well for the trail, 9 to 9.5f and under. But he has nothing for the 10f of the Derby. This race showed us alot. First, Echo Again wants no part of a speedy track, which is the main reason why he did so well at Saratoga in his maiden back in August. He handed this race to a rear runner with speed. Confidence Game showed no allegiance to the speedy bias today, which is a major disappointment, however, just like Denington, they both require distance. In addition, both being descendants from Candy Ride, they could have a propensity to bloom later in the season. Even Gun Runner exploded after the Derby. Not all of them can be as gifted as Shared Belief, who needed no time at all to bloom. He excelled from his first gate. Not discounting either yet, with hopes of seeing their breeding come to fruition at the longer distances. But the speed side MUST be revealed sooner than later if there is any hope for the Derby. Two Phil's did extremely well on that bias with his lopsided configurations that lean strongly to the stamina side. He was aided by the demise of Echo Again on the lead, but he progressed in his speed. He is the one who stood out here at the 8.5f distance today on that bias.

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January 28, 2023 SOUTHWEST STAKES - Oaklawn

ARABIAN KNIGHT Results 8.5f sloppy track Final Time: 1:43.50

DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.67

Mare Profile = 8-1-7-4-7 Speed = 9 Stamina = 11 Index = 0.96 Triads = 16-12-18

St. Simon: 38.86%

Rating for the Derby: +++

Arabian Knight has a few negatives for the Derby. He only has 6 points in his chefs profile. His triads are highly lacking. When his mares and chefs are combined, optimum registers at 9.65f. Based on his incredible performance on the sloppy track, allegiance is following to the speed side. He also has a few positives as well. High percentage of line breeding to St. Simon, 38.86%. Low chef CD at .67 with a higher mare index. Mares Profile configured in a "W" formation with dominance dotted at Brilliant speed - Classic - Professional Stamina. Higher propensity to be more influenced by mares because of low chefs points. In essence, his mares profile alone balances him across the board. Another like Cave Rock whose configurations are very strange, a bit hard to read and under-par but other factors turn it sideways. Just like Sysonby stated in the forum, Baffert allowed to "take points away" from others. This time, 20 points towards the Derby goes right in the trash. Selfish, as usual.

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Feb 4, 2023 HOLY BULL - Gulfstream

ROCKET CAN Results 8.5f Cloudy Final Time: 1:44:97

DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 5-7-7-8-2 Speed = 12 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.26 Triads = 19-22-17

St. Simon: 7.42%

Rating for the Derby: +++++

This one will be longer than norm. The race first. All of the "real speed" that was entered crumbled, opposite of what happens with a fairly slow 1st and 2nd call. Both Shadow Dragon and West Coast Cowboy configured more evenly as opposed to being lopsided to speed. Those who ran in the 3 path went nowhere. Outside positions, (4 and out) ran much better. The track was not as "speedy" as anticipated all day. Based on their previous performances and speedy breeding, Lord Miles, Cyclone Mischief and possibly even Mr. Bob, all were affected by the eventual track bias. The same happened in the Forward Gal Stakes, the Swale Stakes and the R8 Allowance. This track was not the "normal" fast Gulfstream track that it usually is. That being said, both Tapit Trice in the R8 allowance and his cousin Rocket Can either took advantage of their Tapit stamina to excel against the bias and the doomed speed OR they both have the ability to utilize both sides of their breeding. It is more likely to be the ability to grab both sides based on previous performances. With a complete reversal of advantages in the Holy Bull (and the other dirt races of the day) both Rocket Can and Tapit Trice capitalized with the high amount of stamina that they have at the 8f and 8.5f distance on that track. (Red Carpet Ready did the same in the Forward Gal at 7f with her 2.56 index and mare stamina).

Both Rocket Can and Tapit Trice eventually ended up running against the grain and both into a very slow opening quarter. Since both races were very slow with "speed" up front, this would suggest that the spot was more yielding (tiring) to true speed which is why all them suffered in both races. This had no affect on either Tapit Trice or Rocket Can (because of Tapit) which says that both are completely adaptable on both sides of the spectrum, neither are pace dependent, and both have the raw talent to work any kind of bias.


Lord Miles, Cyclone Mischief and possibly Mr. Bob should not be dismissed in subsequent races because of this, and could possibly run as they should have on a truly fast bias, however, the inability to display the stamina that was necessary on that particular bias takes every one of them OUT of contention for the Derby.

Because of how things radically changed throughout the day on that dirt surface and the way that Tapit Trice and Rocket Can eventually performed against it, both are major contenders for the 10f at Churchill. Rocket Can and Victory Formation, both sporting Derby Points at the moment, are the best of the best on the leaderboard so far. Surely, Tapit Trice will soon follow. Having those odds from Pool One on Rocket Can (and Victory Formation) is fantastic.

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Feb 4, 2023 ROBERT B. LEWIS - Santa Anita

NEWGATE Results 8.5f Clear Fast Final Time: 1:43.11

DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.67

Mare Profile = 4-6-7-7-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.88 Triads = 17-20-19

St. Simon: 44.91%

Rating for the Derby: +++++

Yes, I did give a 5 star rating to a Baffert Boy on the enhanced track of Santa Anita against 3 stablemates. There are several reasons. This is an Into Mischief boy with more stamina than norm. He is not a lead speed freak and he is running in sync with his dominant mare numbers in SPITE OF the running against the grain of that track. The biggest sign is that he was able to overtake Hard to Figure, a 32 point horse who is LOADED in stamina. The race was not "as fast" in the first call as is normally the case, which showed both sides of his breeding very well. If this matchup between Hard to Figure and Newgate was not "pre-planned" and truly run colt vs colt on that track, Newgate showed his dimensions very well. His numbers are sensational and throw in the 45% line breeding to St. Simon and this guy matches Faustin in potential. Newgate leans greater to stamina and was able to tackle a slow early pace, displaying his speed side which should easily translate to Churchill Downs far above Bafferts "speed demons" who take full advantage of that track. Newgate is more about stamina which is the necessary component and he gave every bit of evidence in this silly race that he does indeed lean that way. Being trained on the speedy biases only enhances him for the task of the Kentucky Derby. Newgate and Faustin are Bob Baffert's main ammunition if they get a gate in Kentucky.

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Feb 11th, 2023 WITHERS STAKES - Aqueduct (postponed from Feb. 4th)

HIT SHOW Results 9f Clear Fast Final Time: 1:54.71

DP = 2-5-6-1-0 (14) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.57

Mare Profile = 6-2-4-6-8 Speed = 8 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.69 Triads = 12-12-18

St. Simon: Fappiano → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: +++

At this moment in time, four colts who have hit this list are sporting mid-range chef indexes; Hit Show, Wildstormatlantic, Jace's Road and also Litigate from the Sam F. Davis. Three were given 3 star ratings and one gets 4 stars (so far). While it is not out of the ordinary for a 2.00 to 2.90 horse to hit the board in the Derby, they certainly have a very hard time connecting with a win because they are "usually" more evenly balanced and not heavily swayed to one or the other side. Jace's Road may be tilting a bit more to the speed side and Wildstorm is more evenly balanced. But Hit Show may be leaning a bit more Stamina Heavy based on two things - ability on the Aqueduct bias and the mare's stronger tilt. The combination of Candy Ride (speed) as the sire and Tapit (stamina) as the Mare's sire does create a bit of intrigue and certainly requires strong monitoring going forward. These types do hit the board in the Derby but what will be required here is proficiency on a faster bias and much faster running times, especially because he was 7+ seconds over the record time set by Riva Ridge and only one second faster than Early Voting from last year.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________February 11, 2023 SAM F. DAVIS - Tampa Bay

LITIGATE Results Showery Fast Final Time: 1:44.83

DP = 6-6-11-1-0 (24) DI = 2.69 CD = 0.71

Mare Profile = 9-5-2-4-14 Speed = 14 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.74 Triads = 16-11-20

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: ++++

The showery conditions turned the normal stamina advantage one step up to the neutral and mid-range colts, still keeping it detrimental to speed. When there is a "coating of wetness" - not deep mud - this gives enhancement and adds an extra heaping of advantage as it stepped up. The Tampa Bay track was enhanced by the wetness which is very important to the race results. Prairie Hawk and Dubyuhnell held the best numbers and the highest stamina on the field and this should not be forgotten moving forward. The extra wet coating did not agree with their advantaged stamina walking into the race on a normal Tampa Bay bias. Had the rains come down harder and produced deep mud or if it had just stayed clear, they would have demolished this crew. Be that as it may, Litigate, with his 2.69 index and side helping of stamina gave him the one step up on this surface. His configurations tilt to the Belmont Stakes, but just like Hit Show, Wildstorm and Jace's Road, they are all on the Derby cusp. Litigate gets 4 stars as opposed to the other 3 with a midrange index because he has proven that he can compete with speed on a very fast Gulfstream track with very commendable figures. This is extremely important with colts bred like this. While his CD and his mare's index are somewhat flat, he is running completely ahead of it and this gives him a leg up in that category. What also stands out with this horse is the 9 points found in the mares profile in the Brilliant slot. That is inbred mare speed and the Gulfstream performance along with his ability to use it on the wet surface is giving much evidence that this horse is using both sides. For a mid-range colt, he appears the best so far in that category because he has the strong capability of the 10f distance with raw evidence of ability to capture his speed side. Not a bad prospect for board hit material at this point.

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February 11, 2023 EL CAMINO REAL DERBY - Golden Gate

CHASE THE CHAOS Results 9f All Weather Surface cloudy/fast Final Time: 1:51.68

DP = 2-3-2-1-0 (8) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 11-4-2-7-6 Speed = 15 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.33 Triads = 17-13-15

St. Simon: 26.69%

Rating for the Derby: +

There is a correlation with the percentages that line breed to St. Simon that point to a heavy-handedness to the stamina side which agrees with Turf and AWS tendencies. This of course adds dimension to a colt who is sporting an overabundance of speed from his chefs and his mares for the 10f of the Kentucky Derby. It is important in those cases that the mares enhance that speed and ALSO contribute the strong amount of stamina as well. If that stamina is not present in the mares, it will steal from the stamina side. With Chase the Chaos, he has a massive 11 points in the brilliant slot of his mares which tilts that scale way too much for the 10f of the Derby. Since he is holding a strong percentage from St. Simon and he has a .75 CD, he is able to sustain that strong mare speed on the AWS at this 9f distance. Take away the AWS that he likes and add a furlong on fast dirt and this horse is going nowhere.

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Continue to New Blog Article - PART TWO Prep Winners Analysis

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