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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

2022 Remsen Stakes - Updated



The Remsen Stakes will be run on December 3rd at Aqueduct. Those who have won or hit the board in this race were built in a certain way to take advantage of the 8.5f distance and the Aqueduct bias. They were good horses, competitive and equipped, however, finding that advantage here for success does not translate to a win in the Kentucky Derby at 10f. They do, however, have a tendency to become players for a board hit - WHEN THEY HAVE THE CONFIGURATIONS to compete in the stretch.


Many of the colts who take a starting gate in the Remsen do make it to a gate in Kentucky, but again, highly unsuccessful on the big day for the winner's circle. Whether or not they grab any points from this race makes no difference as they may shine greater away from this bias in other prep races going longer. In other words, the Remsen Stakes is notorious for producing Derby gate occupants, but they find no advantage when they get there for a win. The better ones from this race who at least have competitive and proper breeding can compete if holding the proper stamina to run into failing lead speed.


This race caters a bit more to late running and stamina driven colts who take advantage of failing lead speed. Not every single time, but the bias leans in that direction for the majority of the time. Understanding the way the colt is built and what type of bias he favors will go a long way when it comes to the Kentucky Derby. Pace projection and weather conditions, along with that breeding, becomes major evidence from this particular race.


Mo Donegal, Zandon, Known Agenda, Tax, Bourbon War, Mohaymen, Catholic Boy, Frosted, Keen Ice, Wicked Strong, Honor Code, Normandy Invasion, To Honor and Serve, Mucho Macho Man, among many others, all competed in the Remsen. Whether winning or in defeat, they also eventually gained a gate in Kentucky. Many of them hit the board, but none of them won the Derby. Each one of them highly stamina driven with the ability to gain points when the distances grew. Their distance capability was correct, but their balance was off. Tilted too far to the stamina side, especially the winners of the Remsen.


Listed Highest Inbred Speed to Highest Inbred Stamina (from Chefs).

Midnight Trouble

DP = 1-6-1-0-0 (8) DI = 15.00 CD = 1.00

Mare Profile = 5-5-7-6-4 Speed = 10 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.05 Triads = 17-18-17

Highly disadvantaged for the Remsen and has no shot in the Kentucky Derby. He will go for the lead in the Remsen and he will fail to sustain his endurance for the full 8.5f. As usual, this will set it up for a stamina driven colt to succeed from off the pace. All his previous races come from Delaware Park and was able to win from 6f to 8f which is right in his wheelhouse on that bias with his 15.00 index. Nothing from him translates to 8.5f at Aqueduct, nor to the 10f at Churchill. This horse will set it up for a properly built colt if he does secure that lead.


Arctic Arrogance

DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 11-4-2-4-8 Speed = 15 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.27 Triads = 17-10-14 (2nd gen Tapit)

The big difference between Arctic and his peer sitting just above him, Midnight Trouble, is that Arctic is the son of Frosted and grandson to Tapit. There lies the required stamina for both this race and for competition in the Derby. Because of his impressive 4.33 index, he too will fight for the lead, and he will be able to persevere the distance because of the Tapit factor. The category that he sits in is not advantaged in the Remsen, however, as we know, Tapit takes over and that is the key for this horse. He has already wired the field at Aqueduct at 8f and the additional 1/16th of a mile is no problem. His placement on the tote board will revolve around the persistence of Midnight Trouble which could easily affect this horse. Board-hit, if not winning outright, and can transition his way to gaining a gate in Kentucky. The most advantaged of this list so far. It appears this horse is the one to beat, with breeding that matches the Aqueduct bias and the ability to withstand to the Kentucky Derby.


Quick to Accuse

DP = 3-7-8-0-0 (18) DI = 3.50 CD = 0.72

Mare Profile = 9-4-5-7-7 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.04 Triads = 18-16-19

Came from mid-pack at Aqueduct last out, grabbing second behind the Tapit boy just above him at 8f. The race prior, again at Aqueduct and at 8f, he went gate to wire with his win. Between both races, showed ability to come from anywhere and successfully compete with a win and a second place. Configurations are very favorable for both the Remsen and the Derby. Bias is good, obviously, and should easily hit the board in this race.

Prove Right

DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.63

Mare Profile = 7-3-8-7-4 Speed = 10 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.09 Triads = 18-18-19

Extremely unimpressive Justify son with major tell-tale signs. First, he has a very nice .63 CD to go with his 3.00 index but he bombed in the Sanford Stakes at Saratoga traveling only 6f. This was back when the track bias was catering to stamina, which, is exactly how it will be for the Remsen. The horse has not been able to grab ahold of any style and appears all over the place. He tried to wire last out at Aqueduct at 8f but gave in mid-stretch. Half decent numbers but the performances are not promising at all.


Dubyuhnell

DP = 1-4-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.60

Mare Profile = 3-7-3-9-7 Speed = 10 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.62 Triads = 13-19-19

This guy is built properly for the Remsen. Won at Aqueduct at 8f last out coming from way off the pace and tackled faltering lead speed. He has the set-up because of Midnight Trouble. He also has numbers and style that could get him a gate in Kentucky with the proper 10f distance. These numbers won't get him a win in Kentucky (unless of course we see a ridiculous replay of last year's pace). The complete scenario as far as breeding is good for the Remsen being the son of Good Magic and highly stamina dominant from the mares. Pace in this race will dictate his fate and at the moment, he has the right stuff to compete late. He is not as fast because of the breeding, his advantage comes from a potential pace overload.


Tuskegee Airmen

DP = 5-4-8-1-0 (18) DI = 2.60 CD = 0.72

Mare Profile = 7-5-3-7-6 Speed = 12 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.00 Triads = 15-15-16

Fast winning performances at Delaware Park and Parx. Red flag for the bias at Aqueduct. Numbers are horrific for the Kentucky Derby with stamina coming from only the top, not balanced at all. His two winning performances are at odds with this race and he would need to show total allegiance to his chefs in order to compete here. This, of course, is unreadable prior. Based on his performance at Parx, it would seem that he is a momma's boy and, in that regard, this would be a tough transition. Training on the Parx bias as well does him no good for this race. Two totally different biases, however, we cannot assume that he holds no allegiance to his chefs because he only has 2 races under his belt. First time away can point to a standout or it could justify his disadvantage on this new bias. He is the fastest of the field so far and his chefs are right for this track but his mares make him vulnerable.


Il Miracola

DP = 1-4-7-0-0 (12) DI = 2.43 CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 5-4-5-7-8 Speed = 9 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.68 Triads = 14-16-20

Gun Runner son with Tapit in the second generation. With these configurations, the fact that he did very well down at Gulfstream is pointing to a horse who has already shown he can run against the grain. This horse has the highest amount of inbred stamina on the field and arguably the best chart next to Arctic Arrogance. For the Remsen, he will be subjected to a completely different bias, one that actually suits his breeding, but he may be already comfortable on the other with 4 good races under his belt. If he can make that transition in his first try, he has a big shot here. He is definitely built properly for Aqueduct, now it is a matter of seeing how well the horse can morph from his "opposite" successes on the Gulfstream bias. Out of the field, both Artic Arrogance and this guy have the best shot of gaining a gate in Kentucky, so their performances here are probably the most important of the bunch.


1st - Artic Arrogance

2nd - Tuskagee Airmen

3rd - Il Miracola, Quick to Accuse

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