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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

2022 Pennsylvania Derby




2022 Pennsylvania Derby 

Parx  - 9/24/2022 

 

3.10 and Over 


WE THE PEOPLE 

DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33   CD = 0.75 

Mare Profile = 7-6-3-7-3   Speed = 13   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.44   Triads = 16-16-13   

Slow pace on a sloppy track in the WV Derby and he couldn’t hold on with the crazy advantage he had in that race. Slick fast bias at Parx matches sloppy track. He faced only 2 real competitors in that race and he couldn’t do it, now he’s facing much tougher plus the one who beat him which does not bode well at all. Can he hold for a piece? Of course he can, but there are 6 better. 

 

TAWNY PORT 

DP = 3-3-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00   CD = 0.90 

Mare Profile = 4-7-5-9-6   Speed = 11   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.77   Triads = 16-21-20 

Something very cool about Tawny Port and he is a very hard-working dependable horse. I do think he is a momma’s boy and he is so split on his preferences that he fails to excel to greater heights as he has matured. He does do well in his races but it’s not on fire like some of the others. One thing that does stand out though, this guy has never run on a bias like Parx, not even in a workout. Maybe, just maybe, he wants to show us what he has from his chefs side with that 4.00 index but has never really had the opportunity. His late run in the Jim Dandy surpassed Zandon’s in pace and given his configurations, he could just easily replicate that effort on a speedier bias. Still on the worktab without a race is questionable, but not to the degree of White Abarrio. At least Tawny performed in his last race, so questions of soundness are not necessary. He’s worth a spot on the low end of the super based on his perseverance and the “just in case” he’s been waiting for a track like this. Sitting in this category makes the risk worth it.     

 

WHITE ABARRIO 

DP = 2-5-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80   CD = 0.75 

Mare Profile = 9-5-2-7-8   Speed = 14   Stamina = 15   Index = 1.00   Triads = 16-14-17 

Something occurred just before or during the Haskell Stakes that made this horse give in and then steadily worked all through August and September at Saratoga without racing just makes no sense. He did run 2 bullets there, but what was the point? I can understand not wanting to compete against Epicenter but the Haskell performance makes you wonder. With the likes of at least 4 other talented horses in this race, it is hard to justify even using him underneath. That bullet work on August 28th was really nice and it aligns nicely with Parx but I can’t figure out the Haskell and the halt on racing which leaves me at a complete loss. Honestly, when it comes to the underneath spots in the superfecta, I truly have no idea which way to go here yet. Do you do the “just in case” scenario and do you go with your gut and walk away. I wont know that answer until I physically place the bet. Since I am heading there this year, I will know it when I see him in the paddock.   

 

ICY STORM 

DP = 2-7-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57   CD = 0.69 

Mare Profile = 9-1-5-8-6   Speed = 10   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.96   Triads = 15-14-19 

I didn’t think it could get any worse than Naval Aviator (I looked into him first) but this poor guy deserves a quiet pasture as opposed to a contest up against Grade 1 winners. This is all about his connections seeking 2 minutes of fame having their names on the same sheet as the stars in this race. The epitome of cluelessness.  A 12k claiming race, a 16k claiming race and a 75k allowance all under 9f. Of course, I won’t be betting a dime on this horse. I will, however, scream for him to succeed - simply because I feel completely sorry for what they are about to put him through.  

 

3.00 EVEN 

 

SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING 

DP = 3-5-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.69 

Mare Profile = 8-2-3-11-5   Speed = 10   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.88   Triads = 13-16-19 

Between his 3rd place in the 12f Belmont and his win last out in the WV Derby, it would have appeared that this was not the place for this horse – but – the fact that the WV Derby was run on a sloppy track is what flips everything back in his favor. Skippy is a very even paced horse, which gave him favor in the Belmont. That even pace of his worked with speed at the 9f distance and shows favor for the Parx bias. Skippy appears to be capable of a sneaky surprise underneath on that tote board – but – the performances he gave down at Gulfstream were mediocre and goes against the bias at Parx. It could be that Skippy was simply immature and highly favoring his chefs as a young one and has now come into his own. To be on the safe side and leaning more towards the recent sloppy triumph, it is best to assume that Skippy will keep even pace with the speedy pace as dictated on the slick Parx bias and hold on for his piece.   

 

NAVAL AVIATOR 

DP = 5-10-12-1-0 (28) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.68 

Mare Profile = 10-4-1-7-8   Speed = 14   Stamina = 15   Index = 1.04   Triads = 15-12-16 

They have thrown everything but the kitchen sink at this horse. Turf, AWS, Dirt and three different trainers. Now, after an allowance race on the deep track at Saratoga hitting 2nd, this new genius of a trainer thinks that a speedy bias against Grade 1 winners after a 60+ day layoff will do the trick. You can’t make this stuff up! 

 

2.00 to 2.90 

 

ZANDON 

DP = 2-3-9-0-0 (14) DI = 2.11   CD = 0.50 

Mare Profile = 13-0-1-5-9   Speed = 13   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.13   Triads = 14-6-15 

Zandon is built perfectly for this race and since Epicenter is leaving him alone for this one, he should finally be able to have a fighting chance for the Winner’s Circle. The beyer figures from the 9f Jim Dandy run at Saratoga on July 30th do not translate to Parx at all. We must go back to the 9f Bluegrass where he won – running to his style with a full field. He posted a very nice late pace of 114. That line is much more pertinent to this race.  The fact that he ran into a 24.04 opening is very commendable, as he was able to reserve his speed for that final push. That opening should be a bit faster on Saturday, but not by much with We the People up front, so Zandon will be pouring it on late, faster than the figures late in the Travers.   

 

B DAWK 

DP = 3-3-7-1-0 (14) DI = 2.11   CD = 0.57 

Mare Profile = 10-5-4-5-8   Speed = 15   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.16   Triads = 19-14-17 

This guy will be “stretching out” to 9f after a 57-day layoff coming off a 7f allowance race and put into a gate with Grade 1 winners. That’s all that needs to be said. 

 

TAIBA 

DP = 2-2-8-0-0 (12) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.50 

Mare Profile = 5-3-6-8-8   Speed = 8   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.63   Triads = 14-17-22 

One of the main reasons why Baffert is so successful in this race is because his speedy horses are trained at Santa Anita – a track that is very similar to Parx. Add in the 9f distance and Baffert steps into this race with severe advantage. His horses are basically trained daily for this very race and the distance coincides. Therefore, Baffert and Smith make the trip knowing they have a clear advantage. They know that Taiba will most likely run this race in the same manner as the Santa Anita Derby. Hard trained in his last and made a very nice showing, Taiba should explode on the Parx surface. This horse does not run to his numbers (no surprise there) but he does have that Gun Runner/Candy Ride speed in him that overrides the rest (excluding Cyberknife). This looks to be Taiba’s best spot since the Santa Anita Derby, walking into Parx with the highest advantage on the field.  

 

 

Under 2.00 

 

CYBERKNIFE 

DP = 0-2-6-0-0 (8) DI = 1.67   CD = 0.25  

Mare Profile = 3-2-5-12-6   Speed = 5   Stamina = 18   Index = 0.45   Triads = 10-19-23 

This guy needs to duplicate the Haskell if he has any shot at beating Taiba (and possibly Zandon) in this race. That is obvious. He ran that 9f in 1:46.24, the fastest time for the distance from this entire field. Duplicating all of the specifics from one race to the next, including pace structure, track bias, and most importantly, the contenders, is truly a non-issue. The circumstances are never the same, but the one thing that is exact, is the capability of the horse. At this distance, this horse is right in his comfort zone. What is not jiving with that spectacular final time though is the pace figures that he was assigned from that race. They are inferior to Taiba’s from the Santa Anita. Normally, we could by pass figures from that track as they are normally exaggerated due to the bias. The unfortunate thing is that santa Anita is aligned with Parx, so face value must be taken. In this race, Cyberknife does not hold the advantage, even with his record breaking 9f final time.   

 

SIMPLIFICATION 

DP = 1-0-9-0-0 (10) DI = 1.22   CD = 0.20 

Mare Profile = 2-11-4-11-3   Speed = 13   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.90   Triads = 17-26-18 

Not sure why this horse was sent to the WV Derby but, at the very least, he was able to sustain an even pace on a sloppy track at 9f – info that is very valuable. His Preakness performance needs to be tossed, the horse bled throughout the race. So, looking at everything that transpired with him since his Gulfstream performances are commendable but not quite as important as what he did in Florida. Those races align with Parx. Based on his ability to stay the course on the sloppy track last out and based on how he ran on the slick track at Gulfstream, gives him a bit of hope to grab a slight piece here. He is not as fierce as a few others on this list, but he has a strong will that is hard to overlook. Maybe it’s superstition or just sentimental loyalty, but he will be on my super ticket, but I certainly have no expectations of a win here. he is the reason for the trip to Parx this year and I will place one hopeful win ticket in hopes of a Mucho Macho Man encore. Wishful thinking, but if I’m going to scream for the horse, I want a longshot win ticket with those odds in my pocket, just in case.   

 

Superfecta Wager: $24.00 for every $1.00 ticket 

 

1st – Taiba 

2nd – Zandon – Cyberknife  

3rd – Zandon – Cyberknife – Skippylongstocking – Simplification – Tawny Port 

4th – Zandon – Cyberknife – Skippylongstocking – Simplification – Tawny Port 

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