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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

2022 Haskell Invitational


Mandaloun - 2021 Haskell

Complete Change in Field from last week which means the dynamics of the entire race changes.

Listed Highest inherited chef speed down to highest chef inherited stamina.

Jack Christopher

DP = 3-8-5-0-0 (16) DI = 5.40 CD = 0.88

Mare Profile = 6-3-5-9-6 Speed = 9 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.77 Triads = 14-17-20

There are plenty of articles out there questioning the distance capability of Jack. This is based more on the fact that he has never attempted the 9f and therefore has not given “proof” that he can conquer it as opposed to understanding how to actually read a chart. Most of those articles point out one or two sires and place full judgement on that as opposed to taking the chart as a whole. All of this reminds me of Knicks Go before the Breeders Cup Classic. Just because Knick was fast and never ran at the distance, many questioned his ability to tackle the 10f. With the numbers he was sporting, it was easy to tell that he was built perfectly for that race, actually holding more stamina than his sire who came in second in the Belmont. Last year, Mandaloun came a nose behind Hot Rod Charlie in the Haskell, eventually taking the win by a DQ. Mandaloun was sporting an 11.00 chef index. 11x the amount of inbred speed over stamina – double what Jack has. Mandaloun also has triads of 17-25-18. Not only did he compete in the Haskell against one of the best of that year’s crop, but he also won the 10f Kentucky Derby. This is because he was blessed with serious speed from his chefs and major stamina from his mares. He was built perfectly for the Haskell, just like Jack. What stands out with Mandaloun as well was the fact that he distributed his energy properly. Jack’s numbers are fantastic for this race, the best on the field, and he is actually holding HALF of the inbred speed and even more stamina than Mandaloun had. Jack has the 9f with his eyes closed. Distance is not the concern. The real unknown is if Jack can distribute his energy the additional furlong. With the change in the field from last week to this week, this race has turned from an easy win for Jack to more of a pace race now based on HIS previous opening quarter figures. Recall Knicks Go beating Medina, Essential Quality and Charlie in the Classic at 10f, but then came back for the 9f Pegasus and lost that race. It was because of his expended energy against Life is Good. Jack Christopher has the 9f distance based on his FULL chart but the question concerns his distribution of that speed going from 8f to 9f. The only colt on the field who has the ability, as shown on the PP sheet, to “test” that distribution ability is if Taiba takes that lead. He is the only one who matches Jack’s exceptional first call figures. This would mean that Jack would need to match his Pat Day and Champagne races and then continue on the additional furlong expending the same exact energy. Based on Jack’s configurations, he has the highest inbred speed to pull from on the field, plus, he has an exceptionally low chef CD to go with it. He also has magnificent stamina from his mares that get lumped in on top of it. With a conducive pace, Jack is going much further than 9f at his normal rate of speed. If the pace is radically high, that distribution will come into play in a major way. One can only guess at the rate, but based on his configurations and the way he runs directly with them, his mares will see to it that he sustains all it, evenly, throughout each call. Jack still remains the one to beat.

One Time Willard

DP = 4-5-2-1-0 (12) DI = 5.00 CD = 1.00

Mare Profile = 6-5-5-7-5 Speed = 11 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.00 Triads = 16-17-17

The longest distance this horse has ever run was at 8.3f at Monmouth. He posted call figures of 77/74/75 72. With a 5.00 chef index, that is pitiful. There is no reason for Willard to be entered into this race.

White Abarrio

DP = 2-5-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 9-5-2-7-8 Speed = 14 Stamina = 15 Index = 1.00 Triads = 16-14-17

White Abarrio is configured properly for this race. He is the only one besides Jack on this field who has a favorable chef index for this particular race. His triads do not come into play like Jack's because he has Tapit. He was a talent prior to the Derby and a talent after the Derby and he goes to Monmouth with those same credentials. Based on breeding, White Abarrio was a victim of the Derby pace along with a very poor post and this has no bearing on the Haskell. Unlike Taiba, whose breeding should have seen him grab ahold of major advantage based on his breeding and that Derby pace. Taiba folded due to his immaturity and lack of experience, not the pace. This is easily apparent based on the incredible amount of stamina found in his chart. White Abarrio leans much greater to speed, which is a major prerequisite for this race. He has the second best set-up underneath Jack Christopher on the field and he will be competitive at this distance on this bias. His last race depicted a horse who ran very well against a bias and was strong in his second place. This horse moves up for higher board hit since Zandon is out.

King of Hollywood

DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.67

Mare Profile = 7-2-1-8-10 Speed = 9 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.59 Triads = 10-11-19

With 10 races under his belt, 7 of which were maiden attempts, on turf, AWS and dirt, it appears that his connections are not ceasing with throwing everything but the kitchen sink at this horse hoping that one of the performances will stick. This is yet another futile attempt. This is based not only on his past performances, but on his inbred speed - which is highly insufficient for the Haskell. From day one, this horse should have been prepared and trained on dirt on hard biases, and pointed directly to the Belmont Stakes. They missed it.


Benevengo

DP = 4-7-9-2-0 (22) DI = 2.38 CD = 0.59

Mare Profile = 11-3-3-3-10 Speed = 14 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.08 Triads = 17-9-16

This horse is built just like Zandon, without the class. The fact that he did not perform well on the sloppy track in the Long Branch is saying that he is favoring his chefs which is absolutely necessary for this race when holding those triads. With Zandon out, he steps up with these configurations, but obviously, his class keeps him under where Zandon would have fallen otherwise. This horse has a very big shot at this distance to at least beat some of the other lower odds on this field and well worth a nod underneath if you are playing the tri or super. His class keeps him from stepping to the top against Jack and his call figures would need to rise substantially to compete for the win. While they are under par, he certainly has the opportunity to rise to the occasion at this point in his career, but how competitive they can go against a Grade One winner is pushing it. He is holding the proper configurations for a chance against this field and worth the extra few dollars to get his number on your ticket, somewhere. The fact that he is very lightly raced at shorter distances plays to a favorable proposition because he appears to be better equipped at the 9f distance than at the shorter sprinter distances with these numbers. He was up against it prior and as he grows into himself, the chance with him at 9f becomes a plausible longshot play.


Taiba

DP = 2-2-8-0-0 (12) DI = 2.00 CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 5-3-6-8-8 Speed = 8 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.63 Triads = 14-17-22

There is no denying the magnitude of stamina found in those numbers. There is also no denying his displayed speed ability. But there are a few things that stand out here that need addressing and consideration on your part as a handicapper. Taiba can run, fast, on the Santa Anita bias. Based on that outward ability, this horse is not running true to his numbers. This is easily seen in his Kentucky Derby performance. His entire set-up should have given him a huge advantage with Rich Strike, Epicenter and Mo Donegal based on the pace of the Derby. He is all stamina (similar to a Rock Your World, Mendelssohn, Catholic Boy type). He runs opposite, which is par for the course with Baffert’s boys. Based on the PP’s, Taiba beats Howling Time to the lead easily, and if Baffert wants a wire to wire win again, he would have no competition (other than Jack) in securing that lead. We cannot be mind-readers and assume the lead, remember what happened in the Derby. This means that the Haskell, this year, is a pace race – not a distance race. Normal Baffert playbook is to secure the lead and then bring it down to a snail’s pace. This scenario will actually aid Jack, whereby he would reserve his ending thunder and there would be no “test” of his ability to distribute that energy. What is very aggravating is the fact that based on Taiba’s configurations, his stamina is packed and could easily run at a much faster pace wire to wire. This is how quality horse’s run with his type of configurations and outward speed ability. But it was not present at Churchill. While watching the last 10 seconds or so from the Santa Anita Derby about 20 times, the thought had occurred to me that Messier already had 10 points from the Robert B. Lewis, therefore a second place in the Santa Anita Derby would garner him a total of 50 points, enough for a Derby gate. Taiba needed the win and the 100 points, as 40 points may have left him on the sidelines for the Derby. Mid-stretch at S.A., even though it appears that Velasquez was urging Messier at one point, it still looks like he gave in for Taiba to get those points, allowing both in the Derby. Based on breeding, Santa Anita should have been against him, much greater advantage on that bias for Messier. The fact remains, Tabia does not have a career so far that comes anywhere close to Jack Christopher. He is a maiden winner and most likely handed the win in the SA Derby by his stablemate. How that compares to Jack Christopher is senseless. A maiden winner who skated for a win in the SA Derby behind a limited speedster in Forbidden Kingdom - that is his career in a nutshell. That was given higher credence over Jack's resume in the M/L odds. Its disgusting. Taiba showed nothing at Churchill, while his apparent configurations should have been advantageous with the other stamina horses. He ran like a speed freak and went down with the other speed horses. This is counter to everything that the Haskell demands. This is counter to his numbers, which is par for the course. But none of it matters. It might as well be Baffert himself in the gate. Just like in many of Baffert’s prior races with his clones, the potions and the criminality of that trainer will ruin every race he is associated with. Taiba is nowhere near the horse that Jack Christopher is, nor is he built properly for the Haskell. But I can’t read a horse who doesn’t run to his chart. He runs opposite his chart. Sound familiar? Because of the way this field shook out and with Baffert’s presence, I will be passing on this entire race this year because I have no desire to handicap “outside interference” as opposed to what is actually residing in the colt’s veins for this particular race. The only thing I will do is watch it to see Jack and White Abarrio run. If you bet on this race, you must consider all the outside Baffert forces - that means, fork up.

Cyberknife

DP = 0-2-6-0-0 (8) DI = 1.67 CD = 0.25

Mare Profile = 3-2-5-12-6 Speed = 5 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.45 Triads = 10-19-23

Fantastic Haskell numbers but something is very odd. This colt does not run true to his numbers, he runs opposite. Just like Taiba, he should have seen an advantage with this set-up in the Derby, but instead he expended an outrageous amount of energy in the first call of the Derby in 5th position. He ran a 106 figure which makes zero sense based on how he is built. He does try to mimic his sire, however, Gun Runner had the ability to run with any pace and distribute his energy to match the distance. Noting the winning performances in the 8.5f Matt Winn and the 9f Arkansas Derby, he would need a substantially slower first quarter to compete, (figures at 85 to 94). Taiba may actually give him that, although that pace, if matched with Jack’s and Taiba’s performances, could rise and give Cyberknife more of a Lecomte pace to deal with. As stated in Jack’s analysis, this edition is not a distance race, it is a pace race. Based on what Baffert has Taiba do in the first ¼ will dictate Cyberknife’s fate. He goes full throttle in a conducive pace, right to the end – he disintegrates otherwise. If Taiba matches his previous Santa Anita first call Beyer figures, he will test the energy distribution ability of Jack Christopher and he will destroy Cyberknife. If he gets that moderate pace, Cyberknife continues with the best of them.

Howling Time

DP = 1-1-12-0-0 (14) DI = 1.33 CD = 0.21

Mare Profile = 4-10-4-8-4 Speed = 14 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.10 Triads = 18-22-16

Another with gorgeous numbers who should have sustained his lead in the Matt Winn at that distance and with that 87 first call figure. He gained in speed, but he gave it up. With the strong influence of speed that he gained from Not This Time coupled with those glorious triads, this horse had no excuse for settling for second at 8.5f. He was home free with his credentials and unfortunately for him, there are a few on this field who can sustain 9f traveling even faster. In addition, it appears that Howling Time would prefer every race he runs in to be at Churchill Downs. Take him away from Churchill and he doesn’t want to perform. Even though his triads are spectacular, and he has that 1.33 index, Not this Time obviously has more say in his offspring than what meets the eye in their configurations. The stamina gets watered down and that is not what the Haskell demands.

 

2019 was a year that produced a staggering amount of foals full of competitive potential. Epicenter, Charge It, Simplification, White Abarrio, Zandon, Mo Donegal, Early Voting, Cyberknife, and Jack Christopher, among many others. The Haskell, the Jim Dandy and the Travers Stakes will be filled with high talent, all with respectable ability to tackle the distances at hand. All of this in preparation for the Breeders Cup Classic against Flightline and a few others. What a great season, from the early preps all the way through to Breeders Weekend. May the best prevail.


The first of three star-studded races begins in Oceanport at Monmouth Park.


The Haskell Invitational began it's roots back in 1968, known as the Monmouth Invitational Handicap. It was later renamed in honor of Amory Haskell, the first President of the track after re-opening in 1946.


Both Majestic Light (1976) and Bet Twice (1987) hold the track record for this race. Both hit the wire at exactly 1:47.00.


In 1985, an upset occurred when Skip Trial, a 35 to 1 longshot beat Spend-a-Buck in the Haskell. Spend-a-Buck holds a very long running track record at the 9f distance at Monmouth Park - 1:46.80, but it occurred in the 9f Monmouth Handicap held three weeks later. That track record for that distance on Monmouth's grounds remains intact until this very day. The grand history and the details of these legendary races are just as special and significant today as they were at the time.


The detail in the advantages held by the contenders of this particular race can be found within the inheritance that they garnered from their mares. Of course, speed will always dominate a 9f race, but this race at this track demands that it be coupled with mare stamina. Over the last 21 years of the Haskell, 67% of the winners held a chef index over 3.00. That is a very impressive statistic, but even more impressive; 81% of the Haskell winners held a dominance of mare stamina, regardless of chef index. Within the 19% who fell short on mare stamina, their chefs were right there with it. Horses like Paynter, Girvin, Lookin at Lucky, Any Given Saturday etc, grabbed that stamina from their chefs. You will see that their triads are under par but their chefs drop below the 3.00 mark, instilling the correct balance from the other side.


In analyzing these numbers, the advantage goes to any colt with a 3.00 and over index who is packing killer triads - just like the Kentucky Derby. In essence, the Haskell, even though it is an 1/8th shorter than the Derby, the track bias demands that stamina be present because this is usually a fast paced race right out of the gate. The horse must be equipped with high speed to compete at the shorter distance, fast out of the gate and he must have the inbred high stamina to sustain that HIGH cruising speed the entire 9f.


Here are some quick numbers that justify what I am talking about. Take special note of any horse over 3.00 and what their mares are presenting as far as triad configurations. Even though this is a 9f race, these numbers present the same advantage as 10f because of the Monmouth bias and the speedy early pace. Most are all beautifully packed on the classic/stamina side. If they lack in the mare triads, you will see that their chef index drops below that 3.00 to garner the necessary stamina to cross the line first. Note how the pars in the mare's triads either rise across or are packed, just like the Kentucky Derby.


Only three did not fulfill the prerequisites. The filly, Rachel Alexandra, was not holding "Derby" numbers - as is the usual case when it comes to fillies. Bluegrass Cat in 2006 was lacking in his triads and American Pharoah had Baffert and god knows what else on the side. You can't make this stuff up! The numbers are right there in black and white. Pharoah's triads - under par, just like the filly.

NAME

CHEFS

MARES

Mandaloun

11.00

17-25-18

Authentic

3.00

20-23-19

Maximum Security

3.40

15-12-19

Good Magic

3.40

13-19-20

Girvin

2.11

17-13-14

Exaggerator

3.40

11-15-19

Pharoah

​4.33

15-17-17

Bayern

3.00

15-18-21

Verrazano

2.06

19-21-20

Paynter

2.75

15-17-17

Coil

1.18

​16-23-18

Lookin at Lucky

2.83

14-16-19

Rachel Alexandra

3.00

16-13-17

Big Brown

1.67

16-21-20

Any Given Saturday

2.75

14-15-15

Bluegrass Cat

3.57

15-15-17

Roman Ruler

4.45

14-17-20

Lion Heart

3.00

18-18-18

Peace Rules

4.50

16-23-16

War Emblem

3.40

17-14-19

Point Given

3.00

15-22-21

81% of the time, the mares triads are at or above par (ascending to the right or packed above 19) coupled with heavy speed influence. These are the configurations that will win the trophy consistently. The Haskell is always filled with top notch competitors who are more than capable of the 9f. Beyers and Timeform figures will play a major part in this race, unlike the Derby. Generally, we are looking at a full field of high caliber horses and only a couple of wanna-be's year after year. At 9f, speed is the name of the game and those with the proper stamina inheritance will sustain that speed the entire 9f.

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