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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

2022 Gun Runner Stakes Analysis

Monday, December 26th, 2022

Fairgrounds Race Track

Listed Highest Chef Speed to Highest Chef Stamina. Mares are taken into consideration separately.


Post #7 Wayne Catalano Jockey: Lanerie Sire: Oscar Performance

Last Workout: Fairgrounds 4f :48.40

DP = 5-7-5-1-0 (18) DI = 4.14 CD = 0.89

Mare Profile = 7-4-7-5-6 Speed = 11 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.04 Triads = 18-16-18

Distance Potential: 9f+

This guy looks like Tawny Port 2.0, both in inheritance and race placement. Based on his workout on the dirt at Fairgrounds, it would appear that he may be quite comfortable on this surface, posting the fastest work of the field at this track. But in the Bashford Stakes on the Churchill dirt, he was not competitive at all. This is a very tough call here because based on Equibase figures, this guy (in serious defeat on turf last out) actually posted stronger (95) than Determinedly (92) who won by 7 lengths on dirt. Dropping in class after a 52-day long hiatus could show that Catalano has been training this guy to succeed on dirt and there is always the possibility that he is ready with that 4.14 index. Because of the way that Determinedly is built, with both horses topping in the 4.00+ speed range, advantage must go to the one below here on this list. In reality, Andthewinneris has less than a 50/50 shot of exploding on this surface at this time. The early pace figures of Jace's Road (on a fast dry surface, not the sloppy race) could actually set it up for this guy to come late and grab a piece. He does have Hayes Strike to deal with who will look to do the same. It is always difficult to predict how a turf player will respond back on dirt, especially when the bias is not as against him as it would be on highly speed-oriented tracks. Fairgrounds is a bit kinder to "stamina" but (and this a huge "but") Andthewinneris is not sporting major stamina. It is even and balanced, not tilted like Determinedly. This guy is the epitome of a "just in case" play on your supers.


Post #3 Mark Casse Jockey: Saez Sire: Cairo Prince

Last Workout: Fairgrounds 4f :51.00

DP = 3-3-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 CD = 0.90

Mare Profile = 5-6-5-12-4 Speed = 11 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.84 Triads = 16-23-21

Distance Potential: 9.75f+

At this distance with his configurations, he is walking into this race with the highest advantage on the field. He is a deserving favorite, however, he has not been subjected to the type of pace that Jace's Road may unleash. He has the type of style that puts him off of that pace and surely, if Jace's Road starts to peddle backwards, that is when Determinedly will do his best running. It is always the game to try to beat the favorite but based on the phenomenal "Derby potential" in this guy's numbers, it would appear that he walks into the 8.5f race with the best configurations on the field with ability to continue to progress as the distances go even further. Because there is only one speedy probable lead who does not disperse his energy very well, this guy will be positioned in a better spot than Hayes Strike - closer to faltering speed. Determinedly's exceptional late pace of 100 in his last is probably a bit lower than it actually could have been because he won by over 7 lengths and was not ridden hard in the stretch. He is easily the one to beat.


Post #5 Lonnie Briley Jockey: Vargas Sire: Mo Town

Last Workout: Delta Downs 4f :50.00

DP = 3-4-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80 CD = 0.83

Mare Profile = 10-5-3-5-7 Speed = 15 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.27 Triads = 18-13-15

Distance Potential: 8.75f

With his configurations and his shorter distance capability, this guy should be posting much faster early figures. With his ratings as they stand, the amount of energy that he conserves in the early stages of his races should have at least presented much better late figures. This guy is running completely opposite of his breeding. With a 3.80 speedy index and total dominance in the brilliant category from his mares, everything that he has presented so far is backwards and insufficient.


Post #1 Kenny McPeek Jockey: Hernandez Sire: Connect

Last Workout: Fairgrounds 5f 1:01.60

DP = 2-2-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 7-4-2-13-8 Speed = 11 Stamina = 21 Index = 0.65 Triads = 13-19-23

Distance Potential: 10.75f+

I really like this horse alot, so favoritism aside, I will try to keep my head on the 8.5f race of the day. This is not the Belmont Stakes, it is an 8.5f jaunt at Fairgrounds. I will remember that! But how could you not love a little Mini-"Country House" going into 2023?! With this guy's configurations, he is going to have a very difficult time connecting with wins at these types of distances (just like Country House) but they are "work-horses" with severe late determination that somehow gets them to that board against their disadvantage time and again. This is a very good horse and this bias is a bit better for him. The problem he faces here is the amount of ground that he might distance himself from Determinedly who will be further up with the pace. He will have alot to make up at precisely the time when the other wants to start running as well. It would not be in Hayes's best interest to alter his style for this race because that style is absolutely built into him. He is running exactly to his numbers but the track ends when he wants to continue. The extra 6 Derby points between 1st and 2nd is certainly not worth it this early in the game. Looking back, Country House EXPLODED at Fairgrounds in the Risen Star but ended up with 2nd place behind War of Will. I see a repeat scenario. This horse is all stamina coming from the rear but the huge standout quality - besides his determination - is that he is NOT dependent on pace breakdown. He's going to move late regardless of the first and second call. With only 7 horses on the field and a couple of major slow-pokes entered, I would be very surprised if this short distance keeps him off the tote board. If he is going to open up, it will be here but he is up against an outright win. Would love to see him do it but Determinedly is simply built too well to give in.


Post #4 Michael Stidham Jockey: C. Hernandez Sire: Hard Spun

Last Workout: Fairgrounds 5f 1:01.20

DP = 4-7-12-1-0 (24) DI = 2.43 CD = 0.58

Mare Profile = 2-7-6-10-3 Speed = 9 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.77 Triads = 15-23-19

Distance Potential: 10.4f

Although his beyer pace figures are highly lacking, his call figures are actually quite good. This horse does his best running in the middle of the race and he certainly has quite sufficient distance capability to sustain it if he wants to. The problem is that he is only engaged up to the middle and then he caves. His configurations, his style and energy decrease really don't make much sense. It is in opposition of his balance and scale, which means that this horse is not running to his numbers. Not yet. He won his maiden at Laurel going gate to wire, but he was about 22 lengths off the track record - translation: a very slow gate to wire win. Midrange horse with ample stamina is not the best set-up for this 8.5f race but he should do better at this distance than the 7f races so far. It appears that he needs a very moderate early pace and he may just get that IF Jace's Road is denied the lead. Even with a moderate pace, he seems to lose interest, with no determination as he nears the final turn.


Post #2 Brad Cox Jockey: Geroux Sire: Quality Road

Last Workout: Fairgrounds 4f :49.60

DP = 2-2-6-0-0 (10) DI = 2.33 CD = 0.60

Mare Profile = 12-1-3-4-11 Speed = 13 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.97 Triads = 16-8-18

Distance Potential: 10.2f

Last race, this guy threw Geroux off his back when loading at the gate, then proceeded to run on his own for one furlong before getting caught. He was then reloaded but decided that he really wasn't interested in the race after all. It could be that he was adverse to the sloppy track and wanted no parts of it. If that is the case, it might not be a good idea to use this guy if it rains heavily. Either way, the race should be a toss for him. In his two races prior to that, he expended all of his energy early, showing that he has actually been the fastest of this field right out of the gate - but not taking the lead. (His first race, geared down but not geared down in the Iroquois at the same distance as this race.) There does not appear to be one colt on this field that is prone to take that lead. Only one horse did go wire to wire, Old Alliance, in his first race traveling 7f, but then in his next, came from the back. If this horse gets the lead and tones things down a bit, he could sustain and hold on for a piece. His split triads and that 12 in the mare's Brilliant slot of his profile, toning down early may not be feasible with the way he is built. He is allowing that dominant 12 to shine brightly early and this is out of his control. Only training could get him to disperse his energy properly, especially at this distance. This particular field is not giving him too much early competition, so it may be possible for him to conserve. If he does that, he could retain a slight piece in the end. He has a couple of talented rear runners who will be coming, it boils down to how fast and how far ahead he can actually distance himself from those late runners.


Post #6 Ben Colebrook Jockey: Machado Sire: Violence

Last Workout: Keeneland 4f 48.80

DP = 5-4-8-3-0 (20) DI = 1.86 CD = 0.55

Mare Profile = 9-2-5-4-7 Speed = 11 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.09 Triads = 16-11-16

Distance Potential: 9.6f

Middle of the road type horse who is built just fine for the distance of the day. There is nothing bad here but there isn't really anything special either. It is all even and simple, for lack of better words. He will have a much easier time at this distance over the 6f to 7f distances of his races so far. They were up against speedsters which really played against him. If he is going to shine, now is the time. At 8.5f with ample chef stamina to sustain that 9 dominant points in the mare brilliant slot. He has shown early speed which is slightly under Jace's Road but his energy does not drop as significantly late. He has a half decent shot at a board hit over Jace's Road if he doesn't get caught up in an early duel.


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