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2022 Breeders Futurity Analysis


Knicks Go - Track Record 1:40.79

Back in 2019, Knicks Go entered the starting gate in the Breeders Futurity at odds of 70 to 1 and not only did he demolish that 14 horse field by over 5 lengths, he also obtained the track record. The Breeder's Futurity has hosted an amazing array of talented young horses over the years and many had gone on to major success. Essential Quality, Classic Empire, Maxfield, Brody's Cause and Dullahan, just to name a few of the more recent winners. This race is a true test of talent, as the gate is usually filled to the brim with speed and endurance.


This race combines both pace and distance and everything revolves around the front tier. Those with speed up front MUST have the mare stamina to continue and if they don't, you can be sure that the best of the best configured colts will be coming from the rear. When handicapping this race, you must judge the pace, where the horse will settle, and what he is packing as far inheritance to continue with that strong pace.


This is not a M/L odds type of race if you play the trifecta and super. Not by any stretch of the imagination. This is all about inheritance, speed and endurance with these young guys. The future superstars who hit that board may not have killed it in their shorter debuts and now they have the advantage to show off their stamina and the ability to overtake those fast beyers from the speedsters.


This race was run on polytrack prior to 2014. So, in looking at only the past 8 editions, much info can still be garnered.


Only one winner had the ability to take it gate to wire - Knicks Go at 70-1

Three winners sat just off the lead: Essential Quality. Classic Empire. Carpe Diem. All three of them went off at odds of 2-1.

Four winners took advantage of the forwardly place speedsters. Many superfecta board-hitters came in at double digit odds. Many speedy favorites disintegrated.


Looking closely at those three "speedy" early winners who went off at such low odds, each one of them had "Derby Worthy Stamina" with the ability to stalk (the advantaged position) with killer speed (the advantaged category) and inherited endurance (the mares configurations.) Many of the colts who went off with short odds who sat in the forward spots retreated quickly, making way for those with the proper stamina coming from midpack to rear. Rattle and Roll, Free Drop Billy, Maxfield, and Brody's Cause, all with much higher odds, coming from off the pace to take the lead speedsters down.


This is also evident in those who hit the tote board in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th spots. Not one year did that superfecta coincide with the odds. This is not a 6f race on a speedy track with only 7 contenders. This gate will be filled to the brim with all types across the board. There will be speedsters who dazzled in their shorter races, and given short odds because of it and most will beat each other down if they are not holding mare stamina. There will be higher odds horses who lack the pretty beyers but they will pounce as soon as those speedsters start to go backwards. The point is, if you are going to play a trifecta or superfecta, those odds mean nothing in this race.


1. Who will sit in the top flight?

2. Has their inheritance coincided with their displayed speed to this point?

3. Do the mares give them enough stamina to duke it out with all the other speedsters?


If you find only one or two with the proper balance in that top flight, the other hitters are coming from behind and they are hitting that board with their killer odds. The 3.10 and over group are the most important as they relate to their favored position, their mare inheritance, and most importantly, how many there are out there and how many can sustain it while battling it out against each other. Only the best of that top tier will survive.


3.10 and Over


Bourbon Bash - 15 to 1

DP = 2-8-2-0-0 (12) DI = 11.00 CD = 1.00

Mare Profile = 8-5-4-4-8 Speed = 13 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.04 Triads = 17-13-16

Won twice going gate to wire at 6f with very speedy early pace figures. Did not get the lead in last and faltered. Mare numbers are sub-par if he tries to wire, he will be back-tracking before the final turn. Coming from 6th position, he probably will go for it but with 11x speed over stamina and descending triads, he will struggle late.


Honed - 10 to 1

DP = 4-2-2-0-0 (8) DI = 7.00 CD = 1.25

Mare Profile = 7-7-3-10-2 Speed = 14 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.41 Triads = 17-20-15

Coming from post 3, he'll go out but he will be kicking it much faster early than he did in the Iroquois. With a 1.25 chef CD and a 1.41 mare index going faster might eat up his late endurance. He did drop slightly in his last and his pace figures were just okay. I see better in this category.


Carmel Road (Also Eligible) - 6 to 1

DP = 4-14-8-0-0 (26) DI = 5.50 CD = 0.85

Mare Profile = 6-5-6-6-5 Speed = 11 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.05 Triads = 17-17-17

Baffert boy who wants to wire and if he gets a gate will be trying from post 14. Speedy 5.50 index with very tight mare balanced even stamina. Doubtful he gets his lead spot, will expend energy trying on the far outside. Will remain wide for awhile but should stay the distance. I hope he doesn't draw in because he has the right stuff for this race.


Frosted Departure - 15 to 1

DP = 2-6-4-0-0 (12) DI = 5.00 CD = 0.83

Mare Profile = 10-5-0-6-11 Speed = 15 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.89 Triads = 15-11-17 (Tapit)

Wired his last. This time coming from the one hole with Tapit stamina (2nd gen). Looks to have enough to sustain up front if the rail is playing. Board Contender Potential.


Good Heart - 20 to 1

DP = 4-3-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80 CD = 0.92

Mare Profile = 8-5-6-7-6 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.08 Triads = 19-18-19

Ran a mile last out to win on TURF. Gorgeous numbers for this front runner - if, and only if, he takes to dirt. Numbers coincide with dirt but he will be coming from gate 12 and he's too slow to make it up front with the speed. He would have to recharge his energy and possibly his style and preference to make it here.


Loggins - 4 to 1

DP = 2-6-6-0-0 (14) DI = 3.67 CD = 0.71

Mare Profile = 4-4-6-10-4 Speed = 8 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.75 Triads = 14-20-20

Gorgeous Derby-worthy numbers. Gorgeous pace figures from his short debut at 6.5f and has more than enough stamina to sustain the 8.5f up front. Brad Cox has a live one. My Pick to Win.


Instant Coffee - 10 to 1

DP = 4-5-4-1-0 (14) DI = 3.67 CD = 0.86

Mare Profile = 9-5-3-6-7 Speed = 14 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.13 Triads = 17-14-16

Midpack runner with a late shot at the board. Love his late pace and should do much better at this distance. Numbers fall short for the Derby but has a very cool style to go with his inheritance at this distance. Will use in the super.


3.00 EXACT


Powerful - 15 to 1

DP = 2-6-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.63

Mare Profile = 10-1-4-5-7 Speed = 11 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.09 Triads = 15-10-16

I saw his name and I had to laugh. Some will remember the much anticipated son of AP Indy who debuted back in 2013. I believe the horse lost by a combined 80 lengths in his first 3 races. Anyway, this Powerful is different. He came in 1st and 2nd at Saratoga. Not loving his numbers at all for the Derby but showed some stamina potential that would work if the speed fails.


Jin Tong - 30 to 1 (Also Eligible)

DP = 2-1-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.83

Mare Profile = 6-5-6-6-5 Speed = 11 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.05 Triads = 17-17-17

No. No. No. Whether he gets in or not - just no.


Forte - 4.5 to 1

DP = 4-4-5-1-0 (14) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.79

Mare Profile = 11-2-5-1-11 Speed = 13 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.04 Triads = 18-8-17

Half decent numbers for the 8.5f but has horrible numbers for the Derby. Speed last out on a sloppy track. Could go either way here. Vulnerable at the odds but has the best pace figures from last. Will Use.


Newgate - 12 to 1

DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.67

Mare Profile = 4-6-7-7-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.88 Triads = 17-20-19

Baffert front-runner. Nice mare numbers but can't give specifics with a Baffert boy. Have to use him somewhere because of Baffert so there is no reason to dive deep.


2.00 to 2.90


Lost Ark - 4.5 to 1

DP = 5-10-14-1-0 (30) DI = 2.75 CD = 0.63

Mare Profile = 8-2-2-2-11 Speed = 10 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.77 Triads = 12-6-15

The chefs profile says it all. He has nothing for the Kentucky Derby but he has an advantage here with the .63 CD, packed profile and the split mares scale. Board contender and will use underneath.


Two Phil’s - 20 to 1

DP = 2-7-11-0-0 (20) DI = 2.64 CD = 0.55

Mare Profile = 3-4-8-8-5 Speed = 7 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.69 Triads = 15-20-21

Very odd and backwards with his pace figures and his inheritance. He's running with tremendous speed early and substantially dropping late, but is it possible that he was geared down towards the end? This guy has inherited stamina through the roof. There is something very intriguing here with the way this guy has performed so far with his set-up. If he does get somewhere up front coming from post 13, he certainly has plenty in the tank to continue if in fact he was geared down to win before. Alot of stamina here for a horse who shows major early speed. Barn and jockey is a bit questionable. Wish he had a better post. At 20-1, this guy is a LIVE LONGSHOT CONTENDER for the board if he reveals the stamina he is carrying.


Red Route One - 15 to 1

DP = 1-4-7-0-0 (12) DI = 2.43 CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 7-3-5-7-6 Speed = 10 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.92 Triads = 15-15-18 (Tapit)

Turf Runner in his first two with severe stamina. Not impossible for dirt but has Belmont numbers, not 8.5f speedy numbers.


Funtastic Again - 20 to 1

DP = 3-4-8-1-0 (16) DI = 2.20 CD = 0.56

Mare Profile = 3-11-1-8-9 Speed = 14 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.67 Triads = 15-20-18

Did much better on the AWS than on turf which gives him a slight chance to the lean to the dirt side - but his numbers aren't revealing that to a high degree of possibility. He certainly has more than enough stamina for the track and he does have an 11 in the mares Intermediate speed. Possible board hit if he makes another step up in transition to the proper surface. Keeneland bias must be to his favor but that is doubtful to occur. If he takes to the dirt, he has the stamina to come late but he does not have the early speed to get the lead like he had in his last. Too many things would need to coincide for him to make it here, starting with bias preference all the way through to position and style.


Under 2.00


Confidence Game - 20 to 1

DP = 2-3-10-1-0 (16) DI = 1.67 CD = 0.38

Mare Profile = 2-2-7-4-9 Speed = 4 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.45 Triads = 11-13-20

This horse is built with alot of mare stamina but he displays Candy Ride's early speed. I think he is torn between the two sides and is so young that it isnt working correctly. He can't choose which side he is supposed to be on. He could be a real player eventually if he could just get it straight. He has a great chart but he is not using his energy properly. He is using it up too early while his inheritance wants it late. Think this guy has great potential but not sure why he hasnt shown it yet.


 

Win Contenders: Loggins, Forte

Board Hit Contenders: Two Phil's - Lost Ark - Frosted Departure - Instant Coffee


The best set-ups:

3.10 and over group: Loggins, Frosted Departure, Instant Coffee.

The exact 3.00 group: Forte

The mid-range group: Lost Ark - Two Phil's


Baffert Contenders: Newgate and possibly Carmel Road

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