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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

2022 Breeders Cup Classic

The Final Full Detailed Analysis will be posted this week, password protected.

Adjusted Final Time for Non-Winners from their last 10f race.

1 Length = .2 seconds

Listed in descending order of final 10f time with track bias/performance insight.


Pacific Classic - DelMar – 1st place by 19.25 lengths

1:59.28 Final Time/Geared Down

On the Rail with no ground loss. Very heavy forward speed bias on Sept. 3rd accentuates final time. Five male dirt races run that day were in complete alignment with the crazy speed bias. Each was won by those stalking the lead in 2nd position for a very short time before taking over the lead or in gate to wire fashion. There was a major lead speed bias as every single colt won in that very same style all day. All conditions were extremely favorable for Flightline while dictating every second of the clock. His favorable spot was in complete contrast to all players on the field after the 8f mark. He will most likely have a speedy bias at Keeneland on race day, but highly doubt it will be as fast as Delmar was on that day.

Last 6f work at Santa Anita was 1:11.80 handily. Beautiful workout, but the slick bias at Santa Anita in hand is not quite comparable to Keeneland's bias. Track footing will not be the same. The Classic is not running at Santa Anita or DelMar so adjustment must be made on the workout. Special note on his Oct 1st workout at Santa Anita at 5f handily in 1:00.40 - that does not rival Epicenter's breezing workout at the same distance on the Keeneland track in 1:00.20.

10/23/2022 - Flightline is now at Keeneland.


Travers Stakes - Saratoga – 1st by 5.25 lengths

2:00.72 Final Time/Geared Down

Ran 5 wide to pass on a very fair track. Laid low and exploded just after the 3rd call, left to breeze down the stretch. He did not hold the stopwatch until the top of the stretch and so was dictated by the seconds that clicked off through to the final call. Each contender on the track had a fair even bias and none were either advantaged by it or deterred by it. What many handicappers fail to take into account is the "run-up" at the track before the start of the clock timer. Epicenter had an 80ft run-up at Saratoga. Flightline had an easy 15ft run-up. Huge difference in actual strides with both the run-up and not hugging the rail like Flightline. This could work in Epicenter's (and Olympiad's) favor going forward. Run-up at Keeneland should be about 50ft for the 10f race. His actual running distance will drop back from the Travers, while Flightline's will go further.

10/23/2022 - 5f workout breezing 1:00.20 Keeneland


Travers Stakes – Saratoga -2nd place behind 5.25 lengths

2:01.77 Final Time

Fair race and bias. Close to rail and continuing his run but lost to the one who traveled further and faster. He had his moderate early 1st call but lost it between the 3rd and 4th call when Epicenter's speed accelerated on the outside. He also had some extra help from Early Voting who was trying his hardest to help his stablemate, Zandon. Ortiz and Early Voting were not there to do anything on the lead, the job was to tie themselves to the outside of Epicenter, trapping him on the rail. This left Cyberknife to push forward after Life is Grand finally gave out. But not long after, Early Voting also threw in the towel anyway, leaving Epicenter his long-awaited getaway. Cyberknife unknowingly was the recipient of a bit of extra time to contain his favored moderate pace and therefore he was able to take advantage for a bit longer late. This will not happen in the Classic.


Travers Stakes- Saratoga – 4th place behind 5.25+ lengths

2:01.81 Final Time

Fair race and fair bias. Saved ground in usual manner but was helped along by the distance limitations of 4 other horses in that eight-horse field. He actually ran just a bit faster in the Travers than the Derby (by less than a second) and neither time was he the driver. Pure reliance on everyone on the field in all ways. His style of running does not depend on final times in so much as the limitations of stamina in others from the pace. The Breeders Cup Classic is not the place to rely on pace meltdowns. I'll give my analysis on this guy right now; he doesn't belong in this race. At all. To be perfectly honest, I can't even listen to Eric Reed's nonsense any more.

10/23/2022 - Reed is still bitching about the entry fee.


Jockey Club Gold Cup - Saratoga – 1st place by 2 lengths

2:02.11 Final Time

Fair track in this race as opposed to the Whitney. Massive performance based on his breeding, especially with the additional 80ft run up. Approx 16ft behind Epicenter on the same Saratoga track at the distance. He did run on the outside of Tax for close to a mile, so he was not simply skimming the rail. The opening calls were run at a snail's pace which allowed him to reserve as much energy as possible. He will get a favorable bias from this fair one moving along to Keeneland and he will have less of a run-up to conquer. His entire performance should gain to the positive based on this final time. He did very well with the distance on a fair track and it will translate in a favorable way.

10/21/2022 5f workout at Saratoga breezing 1:00.88


Jockey Club Gold Cup Saratoga – 2nd place behind 2 lengths

2:02.51 Final Time

Fair Track.

No workouts posted since 8-23-2022


Hollywood Gold Cup – Santa Anita – 2nd place behind 1 length

2:02.86 Final Time

On the rail start to finish on that slick fast Santa Anita track. Extremely fast early calls which appear very transparent from our buddy Baffert. Baffert's usual and very predictable playbook is to get his speed demon on the lead and then slow the pace down in order to reserve as much endurance as possible for the final push. He has Defunded do the complete opposite in this race. Training to either compete with the raw speed of Flightline (good luck with that!) or to see how fast he can get Defunded to push Flightline up front for Taiba. Classic Baffert move. Obvious rabbit and not worth the time.


2021 Jockey Club Gold Cup – Saratoga – 2nd place behind 4 lengths

2:03.29 Final Time

Last time he ran 10f was a year ago. This race was the 2021 edition. Final time does not rival the field.


Jockey Club Gold Cup – Saratoga – 6th place behind 8.25 lengths

2:03.76 Final Time (his last 10f race - could be a toss)

This was his last race, run on a fair track that day. He was 3 to 5 wide on the far turn and then 8 wide at the final turn. This could potentially be considered a toss race based on the ride. The race prior to the Gold Cup was the Suburban Stakes held at Belmont Park where he took 1st place by a nose. He had a final time of 2:01.26 on that speed favoring track which rivals Cyberknife and Rich Strike. The Suburban held extremely slow calls where barely any energy was used in the early stages, allowing him to proceed. This horse was only carrying 118 lbs as well.


Pacific Classic DelMar - 2nd place behind 19.25 lengths

2:04.13 Final time

Lost 15.5 lengths between the ¾ pole and the mile. He had the bias on his side and it flipped on him when Flightline extended 8 lengths past him. Could have been a toss race based on conditions, however, the visuals of his 9.94f Dubai World Cup win in Meydan where he took 1st place by 1.75 lengths looked impressive but fair no better. With a final time of 2:04.97 where he ran 40ft shorter than 10f this time, he actually ran basically the same unimpressive time. This does not rival many here.


9.94f Dubai World Cup Meydan – 2nd behind 1.75 lengths

2:05.62 Final Time

Very slow race where he also ran 40ft (13.3 yards) shorter than 10f. Must look to his prior 10f race which goes way back to last year's Breeders Cup Classic held at DelMar. He came in 4th place with an approx final time of 2:00.72. This final time rivals the top tier here. It was DelMar, it was very speedy and he did ride the rail the entire race. A duplication of all circumstances would show he does have it in him.

10/22/2022 5f workout breezing 1:00.80 Keeneland


9.94f Dubai World Cup Meydan – 4th place behind 4 lengths

Final Time 2:05.77

Ran 40ft shorter than 10f.

No other 10f race to refer to.

10-21-2022 5f workout breezing 1:00.40 Keeneland


Kentucky Derby – Churchill Downs – 12th place behind 17.75 lengths

2:06.16 Final Time (Toss race)

No other 10f race to refer to.

10-19-2022 6f workout at Santa Anita 1:14.00 be continued.


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