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2022 Belmont Stakes Analysis




3.10 and Over


WE THE PEOPLE

DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 7-6-3-7-3 Speed = 13 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.44 Triads = 16-16-13


Second generation Tapit colt by sire Constitution, therefore the mare's entire line "should not" take precedence. This horse is built like Tacitus who managed to come in second place by a head behind Sir Winston in 2019. The major difference though is that Tacitus was first generation Tapit and he was holding a very favorable 32 chefs points. We the People is second generation and has only 8 points. This, in turn, may tilt We the People too far over in speed on that scale even with the potential high amount of stamina from the Tapit line. With points 12 and under, "most" colts will lean on their mares much more heavily, however, as history shows, Tapit is fiercely dominant in his sons and grandsons. So this aspect can go either way. He will be forwardly placed if not on the lead. He is fast out of the gate and last workout in 47.59 - which may point to a horse who could fizzle before the final turn because of that 4.33 index and a stronger influence from his mares - or he could demolish this crew if his Tapit line stands strong. This race could play either way with We the People in that regard.

Update after PP's: While his last race in the Peter Pan was impressive, this guy certainly does not run at an even pace. If he crawls early like he did, it would appear that Skippy and Creative Minister will have different plans. I'm taking a stand with a win against this horse, as there are too many signs that must come to the forefront now that Kuchar and Brigadier are out. The 8 total points is a negative, the 4.33 index is a negative, the fact that he is 2nd generation Tapit has a strong probability of watering down that Tapit stamina. Expecting to wire a 12f track with classy & heavy closers is a huge under-taking. Based on his last three, it seems that he does not like to spread his run evenly and he may be forced to kick a bit faster early (especially if it rains). He tried that in the Arkansas Derby and it didnt work out too well for him. It's a totally different ballgame when he's up against class and it is not a guarantee that he actually gets that lead if he thinks he's going to crawl out front with this crew. If I even bet this race, I'd give him a nod under because of that Tapit factor and nothing else - but doubt I'll even bet a super this year.

 

BARBER ROAD

DP = 3-4-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80 CD = 0.83

Mare Profile = 10-3-3-6-8 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.04 Triads = 16-12-17


Barber Road is a second generation Tapit colt by sire Race Day. He is holding 12 total points with a CD that falls higher than We the People but better in the mares configurations. This leaves them fairly even in terms of breeding and both will depend a great deal on their Grand-sire but will not have the specificity of pure advantage based on the total points and the fact that their indexes are above 3.00. Steadiness and balanced pace projections based on their PP's is key for both. At the very least, Barber Road shows more stamina in both sets of his numbers than his half brother, which leaves him in a much better position to capitalize off of We the People if he displays "too much" of that wicked speed early. He will be coming from the clouds, but rest assured, this horse WILL be coming just as he has in every race he has run. The fact that he hits the board and does not win his races, all 10f and under, is pointing to a horse who may finally be in the right spot at the right time. It could mean that he needs that extra distance. With all of the early "speedy signs" coming from We the People, this may be greatly in Barber Road's favor. If WTP is incapable of distributing his energy properly, it would give a major advantage to Barber Road, Mo Donegal, Rich Strike and Nest. The more I look at his race results sheets, the more I like him at this distance, especially given his potential odds. If they decide to get him a bit closer in the early stages, this horse has a very strong shot at the Tote Board. If you look back to his successful maiden race at Keeneland traveling 8.5f, this guy actually wired the field which means it is not an impossibility to have him closer in the early stages. If they do that, he is homeward bound. Love the odds and love all the signs that he has shown to date - he wants more ground. More work on projected pace once PP's come out.

Update after PP's: This horse consistently makes up a ton of ground in each of his races and when asked to run up front, he still competed. He is not fast or flashy but he is consistent. He has the ability to morph when necessary which is great for this particular race but his displayed speed remains insufficient. This is important for those 10f and under races but not as much for 12f. Too much outward speed and the energy disintegrates. This is the reason why his brother, We the People may have a bit of a problem in the late stages of this race. Barber Road is definitely more steady and well-rounded but he still sits in the wrong category to take the win here. He will have a disadvantage late when it comes to displayed speed but his versatility and persistency could see him grabbing his minor award at this distance. But this could be said of every horse on this field.

 

RICH STRIKE

DP = 5-8-11-0-0 (24) DI = 3.36 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 7-1-6-9-7 Speed = 8 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.72 Triads = 14-16-22


Even though he capitalized off of a suicidal pace in the Kentucky Derby, it was Rich Strike who took control over the others coming from the rear, which says alot. In looking at that incredible late run though, it would be suicidal for him to replicate that at 12f. I do believe that the reason for his last two very flashy and fast workouts is because his connections are trying to get him to distribute that energy throughout and starting early instead of reserving it all to the bitter end. This is very necessary to win this race but it could also backfire if they take it too far. The reason why certain colts are successful in this race is because they distribute all reserves (their speed and their stamina) evenly throughout the 12f WITHOUT ALTERING THEIR WINNING WAYS or their style to a major degree. It appears that they have no choice in the matter with this guy. Rich Strike is built very similarly to his kin, Vino Rosso, with the same type of configurations and style. First and Second generation Curlin. The potential is there for a board hit with the mares dumping a ton of stamina into the mix and a point spread of 8 gorgeous points underneath that 3.36 index. The set-up of these numbers, however, lean more to advantage in the Kentucky Derby than in the Belmont as far as what takes the trophy as opposed to grabbing a board-hit. Not a fan of a win here at all.

Update after PP's: As great as his late run was in the Derby, he only posted a 97 late pace figure and that is because he was running past a group of retreaters. As stunning as it looked, his entire line of pace figures from the performance, (including his others), pales in comparison to a few of the others on this list. What he does have is a strong amount of reserved stamina but his speed does not coincide with it. For this distance, things will need to be altered and it will cut into his late run. Based on his previous shorter dirt performances, it does appear that he has the ability to distribute his energy if need be, but it comes at a price. His speed shrinks. He dips down substantially across the board. He gets the 12f distance but the fact that he sits with a 3.36 index is not sitting well with his figures. He is a stunning horse, his PP signals and his 3.36 index say he will be okay on a wet surface but everything sits outside of a win.

 

2.10 to 3.00


MO DONEGAL

DP = 2-6-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.63

Conduit Mare Profile = 9-0-6-8-6 Speed = 9 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.92 Triads = 15-14-20


When pitted against Rich Strike for the 12f, Mo Donegal takes the advantage. The first thing that stands out here is the .63 CD as opposed to the .75 above. That center of distribution bodes heavily in Mo Donegal's favor. He has a 5 point spread underneath the perfect 3.00 chef index. Mo Donegal's configurations are Belmont worthy as opposed to being favorable in the Kentucky Derby based on the triads. Everything is flipped for these two horses, except in style. The fact that he posted "normal" workouts, keeping him running on an even line without trying to alter his style to any degree is pointing to a horse who has a very favorable outlook in this race. He did not "sprint" in the late stages of the Derby, he stayed even, which is what is necessary in the Belmont Stakes to sustain that run the additional 2 furlongs. His triads are configured properly for this race, his distribution remains balanced and he has a strong advantage with his style. Most importantly, he is sitting in the better category - 2.10 to 3.00.

Update after PP's: The fact this this guy ran 10 wide in the Derby at one point speaks volumes. Regardless of the bias in the Wood, those early figures will most likely mimic what we will see in the Belmont and there is no comparison to the power that he projected late. He is very consistent across the board and he always digs in to get up front. His numbers are on target for this race and he shows no adverse signs in altering his winning ways. He will not be 18 lengths behind the lead speed in this race as there will only be 7 competitors in the race which means he will cruise at an even pace and then Irad will let him loose with all of that reserved speed intact. He will not be 10 wide at any point. The only thing that is 50-50 here for a win is the wet track. He will need to rely on his mares to help him there, as there is no other way to determine how he will react with that .63 CD. The Wood was a very off track and he demolished them late so I have a good feeling he should be okay. He's got a huge shot at taking this race.

 

NEST

DP = 6-10-16-0-0 (32) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.69

Mare Profile = 4-3-0-7-12 Speed = 7 Stamina = 19 Index = 0.35 Triads = 7-10-19


This filly has the very best sets of configurations on the field. She has every advantaged point covered when it comes to this race. She sits in the proper 2.10 to 3.00 category. She has 32 fantastic chef points total. The .69 CD is perfect. The Mares 12 point spread leaning to stamina below that 3.00 chef index depicts the very best stamina on the field. These are champion numbers for this race. The fact that we are dealing with a filly puts a bit of doubt though, mainly because this history revolves around colts. This is the reason why I don't handicap fillies in the same manner, if at all. That aside for now, there would be no chance of discarding the "potential" of these numbers based on sex, because after all is said and done, they still remain the best on the field. At face value, Nest has the highest amount of inbred stamina on the field - by alot. This of course, tilts her scale and will be very favorable if the pace disintegrates. She has the easiest navigation for the 12f out of the entire bunch, what matters most here is if her speed capability can tilt everything evenly. Waiting on PP's for that answer.

Update after PP's: This girl wants and needs distance. Her ability to compete against speedy horses along the way is a testament to her determination to be ahead in the end. She puts forth just enough speed to get the job done, even when its way below her optimum. Her ability to kick up her early speed on the wet track in the Oaks and still roll past that field to grab her second, along with her fantastic win on a wet surface in the Ashland is pointing to a superstar that can display speed in spite of all of the inbred stamina. She's loaded for this race and based on those PP's she will run as she needs to match the pace and she will have phenomenal reserves of speedy stamina in the end. If she follows these numbers like the boys do, she is a major threat.

 

SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING

DP = 3-5-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.69

Mare Profile = 8-2-3-11-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.88 Triads = 13-16-19


Here's another with fantastic Belmont configurations. Almost exact to Mo Donegal in balance. The main difference though is that Skippy takes no side with his balance. He appears to gain his position mid-pack and then he just cruises in that same spot. He doesn't move one way or the other. He goes from 5th to 3rd position or 7th to 5th position (etc) because those in front of him are moving backwards - it is not because he is moving forward. This same idea is very similar to how Rich Strike won the Derby. Those in front are pedaling backwards which is visually impressive but shows that they need assistance from the faults of others. Skippy can sustain an even and smooth race - he is very obvious in that regard - but he will need to rely on others faltering up front to gain in position. In one way this is good because it shows a steady hand in his pace with an ability to distribute his balance evenly. On the other hand, he cant rely too heavily on a good portion of these colts faltering based on their breeding for this race. At the very least, his numbers are fantastic for the Belmont, but his will to win and his determination is lacking in the late stages of his races. Something about being the son of Exaggerator is not sitting well with reference to the Belmont Stakes as well - unless, of course, if it rains.

Update after PP's: Based on the PP's, this guy is the most conducive, steady and even runner on the field. As stated above, he obviously takes his spot and he runs straight through without skipping a beat. The Belmont does not cater to flashy speed, it does cater to unwavering and patterned running. This horse has both that style and he also has the numbers. The problem that he has though, is that once he hits a certain spot on that track, he loses interest and makes no gain. He is the steadiest on the field as far as pace goes and he should be able to stay within the mix without too much effort. Out of the entire group, this particular guy is the very hardest to read. His numbers are fabulous for the race, his pace is perfect for the Belmont, but his will to win is lacking. If Manny Franco can put a bit of spunk into this horse at the 11f mark, he has every shot at taking a spot on that board. He has everything he needs except determination to win.

 

GOLDEN GLIDER

DP = 3-4-11-0-0 (18) DI = 2.27 CD = 0.56

Mare Profile = 7-6-2-10-5 Speed = 13 Stamina = 15 Index = 1.00 Triads = 15-18-17


Mark Casse led Golden Glider on the same path to New York that he had done with the 2019 Belmont winner, Sir Winston. Woodbine, Tampa Bay Derby, Bluegrass, Peter Pan and then a gate in the Belmont. Both horses displaying basically the same performances as well throughout the progression. Both Sir Winston and Golden Glider are also first and second generation by the listed chef Awesome Again. The similarities are very strong between the schedule and the top of their charts with that Awesome Again line. After having some time to look closer at the mares line, the balance actually falls exactly even with the two different mare sires; Afleet Alex and Orientate. That is absolutely uncanny. They fall exactly the same on balance and scale and almost exact in their performances on the same tracks, (good or bad) including AWS. At first, I was not liking the 2 point spread and the 1.00 mare index, however, after working on that balance, he appears to be right on target with Sir Winston and that is something that can not be disregarded. Yes, they are two separate individuals, however, the Belmont works with balance and this horse has it. Whether or not the performances are up to par with the class on this field, the fact remains that Golden Glider is definitely built with the proper balance to work his way around the 12f track and that includes the inbred ability to spread his speed evenly throughout each call. His ending thunder will need to rise a bit against the late runners, however, he is configured quite well to do so. On the surface his numbers fall short, however the scale and balance is right on target.

Update after PP's: Based on his style and his late competition, he appears to fall short on speed. He has the proper balance for the 12f but something is missing against the others on this field. The probability of a wet surface does not look promising for this guy because of his win at Woodbine on the AWS. The entire field is more than capable to tackle this distance, including Golden Glider, and with such a small field, a case could be made to add any one of them to the bottom if you are betting a superfecta. The odds will be favorable, however, the class and speed is fairly sub-par. You could conceivably use all 8 on a well constructed super if you wish and hope for a bit of luck. The balance is here and the scale is great but the configurations and the past performances lack.

 

2.00 and Under


CREATIVE MINISTER

DP = 1-4-11-0-0 (16) DI = 1.91 CD = 0.38

Mare Profile = 11-4-3-6-5 Speed = 15 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.53 Triads = 18-13-14


Another second Generation Tapit colt who is NOT holding a speedy chef index like We the People and Barber Road. There is something very special about seeing a Tapit descendent sporting a 1.91 index regardless of the mares 1.53 high speed index. After carefully working on these numbers over the past several weeks, his entire set-up balances him to perfection. He has a .38 chef CD with Tapit. That historically depicts a serious amount of stamina that would need to be counteracted with a serious amount of mare speed to balance him. Its right there in black and white. The main point though to consider with this colt, along with Barber Road and We the People, is that the past "Tapit" winners of the Belmont Stakes were all FIRST GENERATION. Essential Quality, Tapwrit, Creator, and Tonalist (even 2nd place Tacitus). The only second generation Tapit colt to win the Belmont was Tiz the Law but that was not run at 12f that year. With the strong probability that a 2nd generation Tapit will have a bit of a "watered down" influence is very real, however, for Creative Minister it will not be as strong. He is starting with a 1.91 chef index as opposed to 4.33 and 3.80. That is a huge difference. While all three sit just outside the advantaged category, the stronger advantage may be right here based on the 2nd gen credentials. It may be a wash when it comes to Creative Minister. This is an extremely talented horse who may be in a very good position at Belmont Park with his credentials. He is the lightest in terms of experience but he held his own against the best that this crop has put forth this year, coming 2-3/4 lengths behind Epicenter in a Triple Crown race. I like his chances at this distance even though he sits with a 1.91 index.

Update after PP's: The lone soldier in the Under 2.00 category is a MUST for consideration. They consistently hit the board in this race. I may be in the minority here but based on his minimal resume, he impresses the most with his potential. This race will not be anywhere near as speedy in the early stages as it was in the Preakness but the fact that he was able to compete with that pace against class was very telling. He won on a sloppy track and then came back with a very even and steady win at Churchill Downs. The only problem I see with the pace projection here is that he was swept faster on a wet surface in the early stages and then everything died down (even though he still won). At 12f and with the threat of rain, the early pace could go faster and based on both the Keeneland race and the Pimlico race, he loses some steam. For the Belmont, the pace should be moderate early, as usual, but with rain, it could pick up and this may affect him. For the first time in my "horse racing life" I have no desire to bet this race at all because the field is too broad. This does make for a great betting race but I personally never bet just for the sake of betting. A case could be made for 4 horses to win this race, which includes Creative Minister. Odds-wise, I'll take Creative Minister for the win. Even though he sits just outside that advantaged spot, He has proven his ability to proceed with speed and the opportunity to have Tapit lingering on the side is enough for me.


 

THE BELMONT STAKES IN THE RAIN:


Unlike the Kentucky Derby where we have a multitude of past editions to refer to and have gained rock solid statistics with reference to winning combinations, it is not like that with the Belmont Stakes. When referencing past players and race results in order to gauge advantages, it is never a good idea to go back more than 15 to 20 years because breeding trends have changed. This has no adverse effect with winning combinations for the Derby because we have plenty of rainy editions in the first week of May coupled with the fact that speedy indexes will always thrive in that race and that is were the trend leads anyway. It is not the same with the Belmont Stakes, both in trends and in instances to reference. Remember, when using history and breeding, everything must be apples to apples and it should not venture past 20 years.


The last time it rained on Belmont day was back in 2011, eleven years ago. That year, the advantages for the race stayed exactly the same:


1st: Ruler on Ice

DP = 6-1-9-0-0 (16) DI = 2.56 CD = 0.81

Mare Profile = 6-4-3-10-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.83 Triads = 13-17-18

2nd: Stay Thirsty

DP = 4-6-16-0-0 (26) DI = 2.25 CD = 0.54

Mare Profile = 3-8-2-5-8 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.70 Triads = 13-15-15

3rd: Brilliant Speed

DP = 7-7-27-0-1 (42) DI = 1.90 CD = 0.45

Mare Profile = 8-2-3-5-10 Speed = 10 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.75 Triads = 13-10-18

4th: Nehro

DP = 12-8-12-0-0 (32) DI = 4.33 CD = 1.00

Mare Profile = 10-2-4-5-10 Speed = 12 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.90 Triads = 16-11-19


There were no changes to the normal advantages - 2.10 to 3.00 category takes first and second. Third and Fourth with a prized 42 total chef points and one with 32, which is always significant in the rain. Triads are all configured properly for the Belmont with the exception of Stay Thirsty. Important to note here that Animal Kingdom, who came in 6th place, lost his irons during the race and Nehro rumored to be "mishandled."


In 2003, now going back 19 years, we had a sloppy Belmont. There were only 6 runners that year. Also of great interest, only one colt of those six sat in the advantaged 2.10 to 3.00 category. For the sloppy track, Empire Maker was the easy selection that year, he was sporting 56 total points! Second place finisher was the only one who had a 3.00 index coming from the advantaged category, Ten Most Wanted. Funny Cide (1.53) with a 7 point mare spread came in 3rd. Fourth place finisher, Dynever (1.12) came in 25 lengths behind the winner. Last place finisher was Scrimshaw with his 3.33 index. This reveals no change in the advantages that the Belmont stakes reveals year after year. High points total in the rain and/or a chef index in the 2.10 to 3.00 range.


It is not ideal to venture any further back, however, here is the list of the winners in every sloppy Belmont year dating back to 1935. Note the amount of high points total regardless of chef index. If they did not sit within that 2.10 to 3.00 category, they had the advantage of very high points total. Also, prior to 1960, you will see the normal low chef indexes of the time. Again, it is not wise to reference history prior to 20 years when handicapping for today but still, the numbers remain perfect except for one - Creme Fraiche. Either the winner fell into the 2.10 to 3.00 category or he was sporting extremely high total chef points. (Not withstanding those below 1960) - this is normal for a sloppy track and also always advantaged in the Belmont Stakes regardless of decade.


Year - Horse - Points total - Chef index


2011 Ruler on Ice - (16) 2.56

2003 Empire Maker - (52) 3.16

1986 Danzig Connection - (50) 2.85

1985 Creme Fraiche (28) 3.31 (outlier)

1982 Conquistador Cielo (50) 6.14

1980 Temperence Hill (24) 2.69

1977 Seattle Slew (22) 2.14

1970 High Echelon (38) 2.62

1959 Sword Dancer (10) .43

1935 Omaha (16) .33


The numbers never lie, even in the rain.

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75 Comments


Unknown member
Jun 12, 2022

First I wish to thank Lisa, and all of her supportive team and readers for their valued comments thoughout this years campaign. All of your insights were so very informative and entertaining. I learned a great deal from all of you and wish to thank you all.


I was trying my best to cheer home Nest today, but had to settle for the winning Pletcher exacta. Even had two extra tickets for my grandsons. Three and Six I told them to watch and cheer for. Another "moderation in excess" resulting in a few extra dollars for the ice cream man. My son and his boys are next taking me to Belmont live on Father's Day.


Anyhoot, I continue thinking well…


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Unknown member
Jun 12, 2022

Thanks Lisa, I loved Mo and Minister but got rid of ALL Tapit and threw a bunch on Mo to win. But of course as always missed everything else cause of one horse (Skippy ). Can never get that last horse but won a decent amount. Your insight is unbelievably so accurat. Thank you for all the work you put in 🐎🐎🐎❤️

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Unknown member
Jun 12, 2022
Replying to

Skippy was my downfall as well.Well deserved win by Mo Donegal.Thought Nest ran a huge one as well.

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Unknown member
Jun 11, 2022

Nice payouts on Super and tri also!!! Congrat's Lisa on another great analysis!!!

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Unknown member
Jun 11, 2022

What a great race!!!! Top three all from the proper category. Really a great race!

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Unknown member
Jul 02, 2022
Replying to

Mo Donegal suffered bone bruising in the Belmont and will miss the BC Classic as a result ( per HRN)

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Unknown member
Jun 11, 2022

Even though this field is stacked with the ability to run this race, I still love the Belmont Stakes. Its my favorite race of the year. Good luck everybody, I hope everyone cashes well!

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