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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

PART ONE: 2022 Derby Prep Winners Analysis

Classic Empire - Sire


September 18, 2021 - IROQUOIS STAKES - Churchill Downs

MAJOR GENERAL Results Chart - 8.5f (Final Time 1:44.88)

DP = DP = 1-4-4-1-0 (10) DI = 2.33 CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 8-7-4-4-5 Speed = 15 Stamina = 9 Index = 1.50 Triads = 19-15-13

St. Simon: Top line-breeds to Teddy

Rating for the Derby: +++

Our first Prep winner out of the gate for the 2022 Kentucky Derby is quite a puzzle. Typical sub-par 10f mares numbers with Tapit in the second generation. Under 3.00 chef index in this case generally spells doom for a Tapit descendent, however, his mares numbers are highly skewed to speed. Much greater than we have seen in the past. The mares are contributing all speed, close to double the amount over stamina. This gives him Tapit stamina on top with extra mare speed which is opposite the norm. This is quite different than our past Tapit boys with an index of 3.00 and under. The only way to gauge how this dynamic will play out is to watch that speed level as he progresses in distance. He can't forfeit one side for the other side in his case. A 2.33 Tapit boy suffers in the Derby because of the tilt towards his stamina and what he "usually" gains from the mares. With Major General, his mare inheritance is close to double in speed than norm. This makes him quite interesting, but we need to see the gravitation in further distances.


September 25, 2021 - BERESFORD - Curragh

LUXEMBOURG Replay - 8f Turf

DP = 4-2-12-8-0 (26) DI = 0.86 CD = 0.08

Mare Profile = 4-7-4-11-5 Speed = 11 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.76 Triads = 15-22-20

St Simon: Top linebreeds to Danehill →Natalma

Rating for the Derby: +++++

These numbers for the Derby are sensational for a stamina driven colt but it would appear that Aiden O'Brien has a serious turf contender in his barn. Magnificent profiles and bred to run all day. Hopefully we shall see this magnificent animal in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Division. He did bring Mendelssohn over back in 2017 to DelMar for a Breeders Cup Turf win and we all know the success that followed on the road to Kentucky. Fingers crossed! Hopefully O'Brien has a surprise in store for us. This guy looks to be loaded all the way around. With a negative .15 combined CD, Luxembourg's potential distance stands at 11.6f. Turf numbers but not so crazy that it couldn't translate to dirt.


September 25, 2021 - ROYAL LODGE - New Market

ROYAL PATRONAGE Replay - 8f Turf

DP = 0-2-4-5-1 (12) DI = 0.50 CD = -0.42

Mare Profile = 6-5-4-5-11 Speed = 11 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.68 Triads = 15-14-20

St. Simon: 14.65%

Rating for Derby: +++

One of the most spectacular races for a 2-year-old on turf seen in a very long time. If you haven't had the pleasure, click on the replay and watch this monster in the late stages of the race. As with all of these early overseas turf preps, it would be highly unlikely that they would transition over but if he comes for the Juvenile turf with Luxembourg it would spark a highly exciting duel. Luxembourg surpasses these configurations in terms of the Derby but there is no denying the determination that Royal Patronage displayed and that quality is rare. They just don't make them like this on our side of the ocean. With a combined CD of negative .53, Royal Patronage has the inbred capability of 12.8f. His turf numbers probably would not transition over to dirt.


October 1, 2021 - AMERICAN PHAROAH STAKES - Santa Anita

CORNICHE Results Chart - 8.5f (Final Time - 1:44.75)

DP = 2-2-6-0-0 (10) DI = 2.33 CD = 0.60

Mare Profile = 12-3-2-6-11 Speed = 15 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.97 Triads = 17-11-19

St. Simon: 18.36%

Rating for the Derby: + In the Barn of a Cheat

Like a broken record that annoyingly just keeps skipping over and over at the same spot, enter yet another Baffert clone who is sporting a speed/stamina balance and configurations that do not read like those of a colt bred for the lead. Wire to wire over and over again regardless of breeding. It's the same horse, the same playbook and the same sub-par Derby numbers. Think McKinzie. Watch the sympathy act of Baffert and his ass-kissing jockey Smith if this horse wires the Delmar Juvenile race, with claims of the second coming of Pharoah and how this guy "deserves" to be in the Derby. If Churchill backs down, horse racing in the States will simply become a faded memory. Corniche will take over the lead in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and I only hope that the other trainers react in kind and contest that lead so that we don't have to witness the Baffert crying pity party and the over-hype of another clone oblivious to his chart. Those headlines will surely take over our 2022 Road to the Derby. This colt is not Derby material regardless, but as we all know, that fact wouldn't have mattered anyway. Unfortunately for us, Corniche will have a major advantage in the 8.5f Juvenile due to his "forced" running style on that bias and the sympathy act and over-hype will be unavoidable.


October 2, 2021 - CHAMPAGNE STAKES - Belmont Park

JACK CHRISTOPHER Results Chart - 8f (Final Time - 1:36.72)

DP = 3-8-5-0-0 (16) DI = 5.40 CD = 0.88

Mare Profile = 6-3-5-9-6 Speed = 9 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.77 Triads = 14-17-20

St. Simon: 12.50% Storm Cat → Nearco → St. Simon

Rating for the Derby: +++ clean track /// ++++ wet track

Normally, a 5.40 index colt with triads of 14-17-20 would be a huge tell-tale sign of a player for the Kentucky Derby this early on but there is something about both the direct top line-breeding to Storm Cat and his major influential presence both top and bottom on his chart that is giving a wary pause. That is alot of prominent "Intermediate" influence (7f to 9f). A direct hit to this prep distance where he held an easy serious advantage on that Belmont field. But even with that advantage, the horse was 5 seconds off the track record. Something about all of that rings to proceed with caution. The prep distances are perfect for his breeding but he is going to have to up that obvious speed potential (5.40) while also leaning much more heavily on his mares stamina influence as the distances progress. His combined numbers say 10.25f which is exactly what we are looking for, however, we must see if he can utilize every number, top and bottom, going forward. He must run to ALL of his numbers. The strong presence of Storm Cat cannot water down a drop. To be revisited if he connects again, and either his rating for a clean track goes up if he pushes that speed or the rating goes down if the mare's influence tumbles. His numbers at face value are spectacular but there are too many adverse signs this early on. He has to prove he can capture all of it at a much more heightened level. His BC Juvenile performance will be major here.


October 3, 2021 - PRIX DUJEAN LUC LAGARDERE - Longchamp

ANGEL BLEU Replay - 7f - turf

DP = 2-1-9-6-0 (18) DI = 0.71 CD = -0.06

Mare Profile = 2-7-3-11-9 Speed = 9 Stamina = 20 Index = 0.44 Triads = 12-21-23

St. Simon: 14.06%

Rating for the Derby: Turf

Numbers mimic Royal Patronage. Negative chef CD, beautiful turf numbers. Combined potential optimum sits at 13f. Another with a free ticket to the Breeders Juvenile Turf and another with killer breeding for the race. His Dam, Cercle De La Vie (Galileo) is a full sister to Highland Reel who won the Breeders Cup Turf back in 2016. The Breeders Juvenile Turf will be uncharacteristically thrilling this year as the potential competition from overseas looks unbeatable. We probably won't be seeing this guy on the Kentucky Derby Trail.


October 9, 2021 - BREEDERS FUTURITY - Keeneland

RATTLE N ROLL Results Chart - 8.5f (Final Time - 1:43.78)

DP = 2-4-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 CD = 0.80

Mare Profile = 7-2-2-10-8 Speed = 9 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.64 Triads = 11-14-20

St. Simon: 31.26%

Rating for the Derby: ++++

This guy could be the second coming of Shackleford. Between his numbers and his looks, they could be twins. But their styles couldn't be any more different which is extremely odd. In this particular edition of the Futurity, the lead guy, Classic Causeway, had the perfect stamina numbers (chef index 1.43 and triads 15-21-20) and the rear runner, Rattle N Roll, with his 4.00 speedy index. Flipped styles that beat Classic Causeway and aided Rattle N Roll. This guy is showing off his mares numbers in his style which is excellent for the 10f but it is strange none-the-less. Interested to see how his balance reacts to a sloppy track, which with these types could go either way. Vino Rosso and Malibu Moon had this type of balance, and it destroyed their bid on a sloppy Derby track because of that strong mare influence. His style and the 14 in the triads are the only things keeping him from 5 stars because the horse has 10.75f in his back pocket. It takes speed to win the Derby and this horse is also pulling additional speed influence from 2 extra Prominent non-chefs, Hennessy and Storm Cat which adds to his favorable set-up for the big day in May. The fact that he is favoring his mares is really exceptional. This is a very good horse with major Derby potential.


October 23, 2021 - VERTEM FUTURITY - Doncaster

LUXEMBOURG Replay - 8f Turf

DP = 4-2-12-8-0 (26) DI = 0.86 CD = 0.08

Mare Profile = 4-7-4-11-5 Speed = 11 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.76 Triads = 15-22-20

St Simon: Top linebreeds to Danehill →Natalma

Rating for the Derby: +++++

Two Derby prep wins on turf so far. O'Brien has a great horse in his barn who was left out of Breeders Cup Friday. Appears he wanted the prep win more than a Breeders trophy on turf. We'll see how things unfold with this incredible colt.


November 5th, 2021 - BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE - DelMar

CORNICHE Results Chart - 8.5f (Final Time - 1:42.50)

DP = 2-2-6-0-0 (10) DI = 2.33 CD = 0.60

Mare Profile = 12-3-2-6-11 Speed = 15 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.97 Triads = 17-11-19

St. Simon: 18.36%

Rating for the Derby: + Still In the Barn of a Cheat

Let the hype and pity party begin. Baffert's suspension had better stick.


November 27, 2021 - KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB - Churchill

SMILE HAPPY Results Chart 8.5f (Final Time - 1:43.94)

DP = 2-6-5-2-1 (16) DI = 1.91 CD = 0.38

Mare Profile = 7-4-1-8-5 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.00 Triads = 12-13-14

St. Simon: 7.81%

Rating for the Derby: ++++

There is alot going on here so bear with me. Numbers alone, specifically the triads, would be an automatic 2-star rating but the bottom of this colt's chart is the reason for the 4-star rating. This is a RunHappy Boy with a stamina chef index of 1.91 and a fantastic .38 CD. When combined with his mares, his potential sits at 10.25f. RunHappy's optimum sat at 9.25f. With his performances so far, two for two at 8.5f is spectacular for a 1.91 horse, revealing his capacity to display his mare speed (index 1.00) and his sire's speed (3.00) in spite of that low .38 chef CD. It is the 4th generation on the bottom of his chart that is so compelling. Through his immediate mare, Pleasant Smile, the presence of both chefs - His Majesty and Graustark - give him a double shot of Ribot and Flower Bowl which carries with it a great advantage at 10f. It appears so far that he is gravitating to the bottom which gives him a major upper hand going forward. The triads are horrendous for the Derby but in this instance, the double shot of Ribot and Flower Bowl must take precedence for now. The fact that he is running mid-pack and late gives evidence that he is also taking hold of his chefs contribution nicely which means this horse is grabbing hold of his full chart and using every bit of it. He is running directly in line with his numbers - much greater than what has been seen as of late. The triads may adversely grab him on Derby Day but if he continues to run consistently to the royalty shown in his chart, he has every chance of breaking the curse of those sub-par mare triads. Basically, this horse has the speed potential of his sire RunHappy coupled with major stamina to sustain it through the contributing chefs found on the bottom of his chart. These are the "stamina chefs" that RunHappy did not have. Throw in the double shot of Ribot and Flower Bowl and we could have a potential monster moving forward. He has the Derby distance, and the bottom of his chart is stellar. Very very nice colt with extreme potential in 2022.


November 27, 2021 - CATTLEYA SHO - Tokyo

CONSIGLIERE Replay Metric Mile

DP = 3-5-6-0-0 (14) DI = 3.67 CD = 0.79

Mare Profile = 6-2-6-7-5 Speed = 8 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.87 Triads = 14-15-18

St. Simon = Top linebreeds to Relaunch

Rating for the Derby: ++

Speed-driven overseas colt. Numbers are not as exciting as past winners Lemon Pop, Dieu du Vin and Ruggero and those three did not make the trip. Major Dirt Superstar from 2017, Le Vent Se Leve, was left out as well. Even Lani had a bit more to offer with his numbers. Since a few Japan invaders did well on Breeders Weekend, they may think about taking the plunge this year, but unfortunately, this Cattleya winner is not as equipped in his chart to take on his USA foes in the Derby. His distance is fine but the extra spark from his bottom line is severely lacking. Japan missed its chance over the 3 years prior and should wait for a different time. Consigliere won't cut it here.


December 4, 2021 - The REMSEN - Aqueduct

MO DONEGAL Results - 9f (Final Time 1:53.61)

DP = 2-6-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.63

Mare Profile = 9-0-6-8-6 Speed = 9 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.92 Triads = 15-14-20

St. Simon = 10.16%

Rating for the Derby: +++

Extremely torn on this one between 2 stars and 3 stars. I give him the 3 stars based on the fact that he has the breeding and capability for the 10f distance. The major reservation here is that it appears he wants nothing to do with the large amount of Brilliant speed passed to him from his mares. I do not think they could have run that race any slower even if they were grazing in the paddock. This guy was 5-1/2 seconds off the track record set by Riva Ridge. In all fairness though, he had nothing to do with the slow early pace, but it shows a great deal that both he and Zandon beat absolutely nothing that day. His numbers are in line with the 10f Derby so his stamina is fine, we will need to witness the speed capability going forward. The 14 in the middle slot of the triads is very weak and depending on the final gate at Churchill would eventually make that number come into play. For now, it is all about his displayed speed going forward.


December 11, 2021 - LOS ALAMITOS FUTURITY - Los Alamitos

SLOW DOWN ANDY Results 8.5f (Final Time - 1:42.33)

DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.67

Mare Profile = 5-4-4-7-6 Speed = 9 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.78 Triads = 13-15-17

St. Simon: = Tie on top between Teddy @ 10.94% and St. Simon @ 10.94%

Rating for the Derby: ++

Unfortunately, the numbers are very disappointing for the standards of the Derby. His brilliant speed numbers are lacking. He has a low chef CD and also a low mare index which doesn't help in the speed department and his triads are very lackluster. Looked for something outside of the numbers based on the fact that his sire Nyquist (7.00 with triads 15-15-20) won the Derby just ends up falling short on both ends. The only thing that can be added in are the two prominent Non-chefs, Seeking the Gold and Storm Cat which could add additional Intermediate speed into the mix. This would not help the triads though which is the main area that lacks. This guy should be okay at 10f after all is said and done and if he could grab hold of the extra special speed qualities of his sire Nyquist - like Hot Rod Charlie latched onto Oxbow's stamina and Knicks Go with Paynter - he could shock us in May as board hit material but as of right now, his numbers warrant only 2 stars and the mindset is that there are many maiden winners out there who will burst onto the Derby Prep scene much better equipped in balance. For Andy, we need to witness at least 2 more races to see if he is consistent and if he can sustain faster times throughout each call of the race. His triads do at least incline, and he does have a 4-point spread in his mare balance leaning to stamina. With the strong possibility of latching onto Nyquist's speed, we will need to revisit this guy if he grabs another prep to see where that speed takes him. He may get up-graded if he blows through these speed numbers (which he absolutely has to do) because he can get the Derby distance. Surely, he would be okay on a sloppy track as well. At the very least, he won this race against 2 of the victim's colts and I'm sure this made most fans extremely happy.


December 15, 2021 - ZEN-NIPPON - Kawasaki

DRY STOUT Replay Metric Mile

DP = 5-2-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80 CD = 1.00

Mare Profile = 9-6-3-7-6 Speed = 15 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.23 Triads = 18-16-16

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: +

Consigliere from the Cattleya Sho has better Derby potential than this guy and he got only 2 stars. Dry Stout is fast. Very fast. As well he should be. Both the chefs and mares depict all speed with a combined CD of .66 - this offers a potential inherited distance of 8.8f. If he travels here and takes a Derby gate, immediate toss, and don't look back.


December 17, 2021 - SPRINGBOARD MILE - Remington

MAKE IT BIG Results 8f (Final Time - 1:41.23)

DP = 2-2-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 4-6-4-8-7 Speed = 10 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.69 Triads = 14-18-19

St Simon: Hail to Reason →Plucky Liege

Rating for the Derby: +++

The inherited distance optimum is 10.6f+. He has a 5-point spread leaning to stamina and the triads incline a great deal. Storm Cat also makes an appearance in his 4th generation which could manifest in a bit more additional Intermediate speed, which he truly needs for the Derby. He has an "Irish War Cry" type balance, and the distance will be no problem on a nice clean track. If he is handed a Derby gate and it pours that day, the rating would drop. By all accounts, the numbers aren't half bad and should warrant a higher rating, but the Springboard Mile could easily be considered a glorified allowance race as it's winners produce nothing worth noting for the Kentucky Derby. Appears he may be better suited for the Belmont with these numbers. This horse has it within himself to "Make it Big" but he has some proving to do first. If his name makes this list on top again, an upgrade will be in order, however the weather on Derby Day will make or break him. Fourth place finisher Classic Moment was truly out of his element in this race with all odds against his breeding and all odds against how the horse's running style was presented. He was ridden all over the place. Classic Moment needs a new track and a new jockey. He is much better suited passed the 1-mile mark and he is truly built much better for the Kentucky Derby than most seen to date including the winner of this race. Eagerly awaiting the proper prep race, distance and jockey for him to see his killer inbred qualities on display. The fact that Classic Moment did so poorly in this race does not translate to Churchill Downs.


December 26, 2021 - GUN RUNNER STAKES - Fairgrounds

EPICENTER Results 8.5f (Final Time - 1:44.19)

DP = 0-0-9-1-2 (12) DI = 0.60 CD = -0.42

Mare Profile = 1-10-5-8-5 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.74 Triads = 16-23-18

St. Simon: 29.3%

Rating for the Derby: +++++

Be still my beating heart! The configurations of this horse coupled with his running style will give you tunnel vision when it comes to the Kentucky Derby! This colt's wins are not a product of a favorable bias (like Rock Your World in the SA Derby) - he has displayed raw talent and consistency so far and he will only excel even more as the distances travel further. Five-star stamina caliber for the Derby. It will be extremely hard to remove that tunnel vision but, in this case, we have no choice. The last stamina-driven colt to win the Derby was back in 2011, Animal Kingdom. Stamina has lost the upper-hand in recent years. But with the suspension of Baffert and his antics, things may actually get back to historical order. Epicenter has the capability of sustaining his speed up to 12.6f. He is all stamina top and bottom, and he is on course to showing us that he is capable of running directly in line with both sets of configurations. He is allowing his mare speed inheritance to pour through with his style even with all of that dominant stamina. Unbelievable that he is showing us that style on dirt and not on turf - which truly makes this guy stand out among the rest. The balance between the chef's profile and the mare's profile is spot on. From his chefs, he is ALL CLASSIC distance and beyond, with nothing to water that down at all. From his mares, the dominant 10 points in his Intermediate slot fits in like a glove. That is a beautiful amount of speed laying in the absolute perfect spot. Gorgeous triads. Throw in Grand-sire, Giant's Causeway, who is a listed Classic Chef and a Dam-sire named Candy Ride along with additional speed from Storm Cat and the balance is incredible. Tack on 29.3% linebreeding to St.Simon and you have the makings of a potential Champion far surpassing anything we have seen on dirt in a long time. The type with LONGEVITY and LONG STANDING SOUNDNESS. Standing ovations for the breeder. His configurations, his style of running and the fact that he thrives on a dirt surface with that negative .42 chef CD makes this guy the best-balanced stamina Derby player seen in years. His configurations even exceed Thunder Snow, and we all know the incredible successful career of that guy. Because of the running style of Epicenter, there is a very strong chance that a sloppy Derby will not have the same negative impact as it did with Thunder Snow who was undoubtedly the best bred and most talented of the 2017 Derby. As of right now, the last week of 2021 - Epicenter stands completely alone on this side of the ocean with the best set-up for the distance coupled with displayed speed and style. His numbers even exceed Luxembourg's AND he's running on dirt, not turf! The category that he sits in is the only thing that is not especially advantaged as of late. That aside, if he continues to grow and mature and if he continues to stay in line with his numbers and chart, he will be very hard to beat in the Derby. A stamina horse with his configurations running on the lead and beating up on his speedier foes is beyond phenomenal. Major Major Derby Contender. So fitting for Asmussen! Go get'em Steve!


January 1st, 2022 - JEROME STAKES - Aqueduct

COURVOISIER Results 8f (Final time: 1:38.44)

DP = 5-9-19-1-0 (34) DI = 2.24 CD = 0.53

Mare Profile = 10-5-4-4-7 Speed = 15 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.32 Triads = 19-13-15

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: +++

Typical 2.24 Tapit Boy with overextended Mare speed numbers. He gets 3 stars based on the Tapit factor but even with that, these are not Derby numbers. Speed-demon Hagler pushed a fast pace but even with the first call run at 22.81, the final time for the race was as slow as you can go. This horse must exhibit speed in order to grab that extra special quality bestowed on some Tapit offspring. It wasn't here. Realistically, Tapit boys cannot be analyzed using numbers alone but only by exhibited speed in these shorter races. This performance warrants only 2 stars but because of the true potential when it comes to distance, he was given three stars. His time on the Aqueduct surface was okay based on the bias of that track and rivaled Newgrange on the fast Santa Anita Track so that must be taken into consideration. So far, when it comes to any Tapit boys on the trail, this one disappoints the most but there is ample time for him to step the speed up if he makes a gate. The outward speed was not really here and so must be monitored in subsequent races when it comes to the Kentucky Derby. The fact that this 8f win was slow may point to a Tapit horse much more suited for the Belmont, remember, mares numbers for him are a cross-out.


January 1st, 2022 - SMARTY JONES - Oaklawn

DASH ATTACK Results 8f (Final time: 1:39.44)

DP = 2-4-6-0-0 (12) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.67

Mare Profile = 8-3-7-8-7 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.90 Triads = 18-18-22

St. Simon: 30.47% (split on top with Mr. Prospector (Teddy) & Northern Dancer (St. Simon) with Secretariat, Nasrullah, Nearco

Rating for the Derby: +++

The combination of his numbers look very nice, with a low .67 chef CD, nice points spread in mare balance and very nice triads, however, this horse's optimum falls at exactly 10f. The numbers deserve a 4 or 5 star rating but the combination falls a bit short, very tight for the 10f Derby. In addition, this race was just as slow as many others on this list so far and the speed quality for an 8f race is very shabby. Run on a sloppy track, that final time should have been much faster. The lead, All in Sync, who is drenched in inherited speed, completely gave in - but the 2nd stalker, Home Brew, was a victim of the sloppy track and that changed the dynamics of the race in favor of a rear runner. He did well on the sloppy track, but he would have never made it had it been clean and clear. The entire race was simply poor all the way around. Dash Attack needs to display much more speed going further on a clean track to gauge if he can truly run to these numbers. In which case, his rating will rise based on his stellar configurations.


January 1st, 2022 - SHAM STAKES - Santa Anita

NEWGRANGE Results 8f (Final time: 1:38.32)

DP = 5-7-5-1-0 (18) DI = 4.14 CD = 0.89

Mare Profile = 6-6-3-7-6 Speed = 12 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.95 Triads = 15-16-16

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: ++

Even though this colt resides in the barn of a mad scientist, there is no guarantee that any of his horses will be left out of the Derby, so the analysis for his colts going forward will be written out BUT they must be taken with a grain of salt. The breeding and charts and numbers rarely coincide as we all know. As they stand, these numbers mimic American Pharoah's set-up. With a .44 combined CD, this colt's optimum lands at 9.25f, basically the same as Pharoah with basically the same chef index and CD, and almost exact in the mare's triads. Appears the cloning business desires a certain type of set-up. As with Pharoah, these numbers are extremely harsh for the Derby, and they are trash for the Belmont Stakes. That is all I have to say about this same wire to wire, slow as molasses, lead Baffert clone and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if this guy gets his gate and takes it wire to wire with Corniche. The final time for this one-mile contest on the Santa Anita bias is pathetic for a 4.14 index colt - almost as if something unseen is watering that speed down. Imagine that! If both Newgrange and Corniche enter a coveted gate, the Derby will be complete bullshit again. I am 101% confident in this analysis and that rating and I know, as sure as I am breathing, that Newgrange is completely wrong for the Kentucky Derby, but it simply makes no difference.


January 1st, 2022 - MUCHO MACHO MAN STAKES - Gulfstream Park

SIMPLIFICATION Results 8f (Final time: 1:35.04) (Not a Derby Prep - no points)

DP = 1-0-9-0-0 (10) DI = 1.22 CD = 0.20

Mare Profile = 2-11-4-11-3 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.90 Triads = 17-26-18

St. Simon: Blushing Groom → Blanford

Rating for the Derby: +++++

The resident mischief-maker, Brian, likes to find superstars in the making which always puts a kink in my peace of mind, however, this time, I'm climbing aboard this ship all the way to the end. First, notice the final time between Simplification and the other three prep winners, just above, traveling the same 8f distance. There is no comparison. This final time, coming on the lead (just like Newgrange just above) is in a completely different stratosphere in addition to the fact that Newgrange is a speed-driven colt and Simplification is a stamina-driven colt. Both on strong speed-biased tracks which offer advantage to Newgrange and a severe disadvantage to Simplification based on their charts. Between those two winners this past weekend, Simplification demolishes Newgrange all the way around. With Dash Attack and Courvoisier's pitiful final times, even more telling about the potential caliber of Simplification. The configurations of this colt put him even, if not better, with his half-brother Epicenter, and both of their outward speed so far put the rest all to shame based on their inheritance vs their performances. Stamina driven on the lead. Simplification has even better configurations than Epicenter for the Derby (less stamina, more speed, which helps a great deal in that category) and these are the type of set-ups that truly make for a champion in the making. His optimum is 10.7f which is better suited for the Derby in that the stamina portion won't get the better of him. The mare's profile is superb, weighted evenly on either side of the Classic distance. Triads packed. The entire package is so striking and with his preferred crazy lead speed style in conjunction with these numbers is what makes him a complete stand-out with his half-brother in tow. Single this horse going forward. This is the type that will go undefeated and who will thrive as the distances lengthen. Reminds me very much of a Shared Belief type but even more loaded in his chart. The fact that he excelled on the Gulfstream bias with that final time (3+ and 4+ seconds faster than the other 3 prep winners this weekend) with his inheritance is exactly the type that we look for every Derby season. The mare's complete line is magnificent. His sires are all stamina, he was not a product of the bias (like Rock Your World) and his style is perfect. He should get 10 stars.


January 22, 2022 - LECOMTE STAKES - Fairgrounds

CALL ME MIDNIGHT Results 8.5f (Final Time - 1:44.36)

DP = 3-8-7-0-0 (18) DI = 4.14 CD = 0.78

Mare Profile = 3-5-4-9-4 Speed = 8 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.71 Triads = 12-18-17

St. Simon: Tie on top with Teddy @ 9.38% and St. Simon @ 9.38%

Rating for the Derby: ++

There isn't really anything bad with these configurations except, for lack of a better word, they are boring and just plain deceiving. He's a 4.14 indexed colt who won by a nose in an 8.5f race. There is nothing stunning about it, it's just normal. His chef's profile is not the greatest of layouts and the .78 CD sitting on top of that .71 mare index is just plain stagnant. The triads are just blah. He did what he was supposed to do at this distance, and he will be just fine at 9f as well. The fact that it took a 4.14 indexed colt 5 tries to win his short maidens is showing that the horse wants nothing to do with his chefs and he is all about his mares. This shows in his style as well. Basically, the mares are competing against his chefs, they are not blending with his chefs. He is all mare influence. Since he is 100% mares, his triads are reading exactly how he runs, and this is just not good enough for the Derby. The performance of the one who lost by a nose was sensational even in defeat. The distance of this race is nowhere near what Epicenter demands. This very race run at 10f would see Epicenter grinding on through at the same pace and the ending thunder of Call Me Midnight would not be there in the stretch at 10f. Everything revolves around the distance both in victory and in defeat with these guys this early and Epicenter's 2nd place by a nose in this 8.5f race only amplifies what a special horse he truly is. Epicenter has a .60 chef Index; Call Me Midnight has a 4.14 chef index. The fact that these two, both on completely separate ends of the spectrum, were a nose apart at 8.5f is enough evidence of how sensational Epicenter's potential truly is and how CMM is strictly a .71 mare indexed horse. Call Me Midnight is not Derby material, Epicenter is. Don't let the win and the hype fool you. Epicenter has the early excitement reminiscent of Algorithms. Perhaps Rosario is second guessing easing up on the acceleration between the 1/4 and the 1/2-mile mark and then playing it cool down the stretch. That horse wanted to fly.


January 29, 2022 - SOUTHWEST STAKES - Oaklawn

NEWGRANGE Results 8.5f (Final Time - 1:45.83)

DP = 5-7-5-1-0 (18) DI = 4.14 CD = 0.89

Mare Profile = 6-6-3-7-6 Speed = 12 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.95 Triads = 15-16-16

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: ++

Undefeated speedsters in Baffert's barn only means one thing when it comes to the Derby - regardless of their numbers. The two star rating will have to be disregarded, along with this colts chart, as it pertains to the 10f distance. It simply makes no difference, just like every other year.


February 5, 2022 - HOLY BULL - Gulfstream

WHITE ABARRIO Results 8.5f (Final Time - 1:42.80)

DP = 2-5-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 9-5-2-7-8 Speed = 14 Stamina = 15 Index = 1.00 Triads = 16-14-17

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: +++++

This horse would not have been on The Dirty Horse Club's Top Ten list before this race if he wasn't 5 star caliber. His performance only justifies it. Winning Derby configurations usually always depict extreme and overloaded attributes one side or the other in balance. With this guy, he has both sides covered. With his 2nd generation credentials, Tapit stamina on top and Into Mischief speed on the bottom, along with the addition of his prominent non-chefs, his speed side skyrockets (ANZ Index 5.40). Overloaded speed on top of Tapit stamina is exactly the set-up that will take it all the way. He showed in this race that he can handle that hefty chart and he will be in the mix down the straight in the Derby. Note the final time between this guy and the one just above (Newgrange) - no comparison - plus Abarrio has the 10f distance, whereas Newgrange does not. His full analysis can be found on the Top List article.

Both Simplification and Mo Donegal deserve some recognition as well. As the history of the Holy Bull race reveals, both White Abbario (3.80) and Mo Donegal (3.00) had very favorable configurations going into the race, while Simplification (1.20) had a very large disadvantage in this particular field. Mo Donegal will be pitted against Rattle N Roll if they both make a gate, and both have the 10f distance but Rattle N Roll has more inbred speed. We'll have to monitor their progress. Simplification put on a towering performance as he revealed exactly what was talked about in the Top List article. Perfectly balanced on both sides of the scale, with the ability to run exactly the same throughout each call. This also works in conjunction with his unfortunate break as he revealed that his centered balance will work with his style of running as well. He is utilizing both sides and every bit of his configurations. Reminded me of Arrogate in the Dubai World Cup. Most colts would have packed it in if that happened to them because of the balance which always has an affect on their running style. When the horse is weighted on both sides evenly, realistically he could also be adept at both styles of running as well.. This usually depicts a monster. With the chaos of a 20 horse field, he showed that he can man-handle his foes coming from anywhere on that track, reminiscent of Animal Kingdom and Monarchos and Essential Quality types. Top notch quality and class. That horse ran 4 and 5 wide almost half of the 8.5f distance and even with his immaturity, was able to recover and dominate a very nice group of runners. No one can say if his poor break took away his win while spotting the entire field several lengths at the start, but they can say that this colt is one of the best of the crop because of it. Simplification is one hell of a horse who will only blossom with time. The Holy Bull race this year was actually filled with high caliber contenders, better than any race to date, including the Juvenile, and will have a major impact on future races and the Derby this year.


February 5, 2022 - WITHERS- Aqueduct

EARLY VOTING Results 9f (Final Time - 155.90)

DP = 0-0-4-0-0 (4) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.00

Mare Profile = 5-3-6-8-3 Speed = 8 Stamina = 11 Index = 0.95 Triads = 14-17-17

St. Simon: Storm Cat → Nearco → St. Simon 9.38%

Rating for the Derby: ++

It is hard to give a Gun Runner boy such a low rating right now and I can only hope that it gets upgraded as we get closer to the big show. The low rating is not for lack of distance, he has no problem in that department, but rather it is the available speed that he needs to pull from. The Kentucky Derby is very different than a prep, it requires serious amounts of speed and stamina on both sides of the scale. It is his entire chefs profile that will be very hard to break through at Churchill. Only one horse in history won the Kentucky Derby with only 4 points in his profile, the great Triple Crown Winner Count Fleet, but back then he had the backing of serious European stamina. The ancestors were quite different back then and the Derby was all about stamina with a lack of inbred speed. That's how they were built. Not any more. Early Voting has only ONE chef in his first four generations. Classic sire Giants Causeway. That's it and that certainly is not enough against what will be in that 20 stall gate. The Withers stakes generally does not produce much as far as the Derby is concerned with most hitters holding much more stamina with a lack in speed. This is because of the bias at Aqueduct. It caters to stamina which is counter to what the Derby requires. With these guys it would be imperative that they DISPLAYED killer speed, which again does not really happen in the Withers. In addition, these are the guys who move onto the Wood Memorial which is a race that is not very impactful either and generally caters to those who lack in inherited speed. What wins those two races are not conducive to the attributes that are necessary at Churchill. This guy will really need to beat some extremely high caliber speed colts while displaying top notch speed going forward to even be considered Derby material with his 10f capability and his 1.00 chef index, but that most likely will not occur.


February 6, 2022 - ROBERT B. LEWIS - Santa Anita

MESSIER Results 8.5f (Final Time - 1:42.89)

DP = 12-12-14-0-2 (40) DI = 3.44 CD = 0.80

Mare Profile = 7-4-1-8-8 Speed = 11 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.76 Triads = 12-13-17

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: +++++

This is going to hurt really bad. But first, the final time is based on a horse who was unbothered on the rail with only 4 other colts competing. Run on a track notoriously known to "accentuate" lead speed on that bias. It is a very good time, but it is nowhere near as credible as White Abarrio's 1:42.80 against that full field of higher echelon colts. Messier's race was closer to a paid workout (handily). Any Beyer or Timeform or Equibase figures that he received are not apples to apples based on having only 3 foes to compete against. (His stablemate doesn't even count). Now the hurting part. This guy is loaded. 40 total profile points. His mares basically will not even come into play, they are just add-ons with a set-up like this, so the lackluster triads are meaningless. He has the perfect set-up, rain or shine, and he will easily run the full 10f distance. He does not need Jimson Weed or tainted hay to get him around the track. His front running style is conducive to his profile which means he is not being forced to lead, as most every Baffert trained colt always is in order to capitalize off of a speed bias. He is loaded from sprinting speed to the Classic distance, completely even and straight across the board. His prominent non-chefs dump even more speed into the mix and pump that profile up even higher. Nothing against the horse at all, but he is the one that we truly don't want to see at Churchill. He will take all the money. He will have the lowest of odds. He will secure his lead and he will not stop. Even worse, if it rains, he will demolish the field. Bob Baffert has a loaded, clean and polished weapon that he will undoubtedly use as vindication. Personally, I don't want to even think about it. It puts a major damper on the excitement of a Baffert-free Derby.


February 12, 2022 - SAM F. DAVIS - Tampa Bay Downs

CLASSIC CAUSEWAY Results 8.5f (Final Time - 1:42.40)

DP = 3-2-23-0-0 (28) DI = 1.43 CD = 0.29

Mare Profile = 4-6-5-10-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.76 Triads = 15-21-20

St. Simon: 45.9%

Rating for the Derby: ++++

I was almost hoping that we wouldn't be seeing his name on this list for awhile now, but it was just a matter of time. Another lead runner coming from the stamina category with killer configurations and a whopping 45.9% to St. Simon. Packed triads. 5 point spread leaning to stamina from the mares. Magnificent Winning Configurations. With those credentials, then why just 4 stars as opposed to 5? Afterall, he is packing major stamina top and bottom which is extremely aligned with those who have consistently won the Derby coming from this category. Close to 46% of his top influence linebreeds directly to St. Simon. That is crazy good. There is zero worry when it comes to the distance. His final time rivals the best at this distance. The reason for the 4 stars is because out of his 12 opponents on that field, exactly 6 of them had zero business being in that race. Half of that field, for lack of a better word, were complete duds. I would like to meet the person who devised Unpredictable Bay's previous six race campaign. I have never seen a more disjointed and confused plan of attack with a race schedule for a 2-3 year old in my life. Did they really expect to make any noise in this 8.5f race against a Grade One and Two player with that haphazard resume? Talk about wrecking a horse's career. I won't even waste the space with the other 5. Classic Causeway is a solid player, but what he beat today was not the most stellar crowd. Next race for him will be up against some real players, so if he does well, he will then see the 5 stars that his chart deserves. Very nice configurations for the Derby.


February 12, 2022 - EL CAMINO REAL DERBY - Golden Gate

BLACKADDER Results 9f (Final Time - 1:50.34) AWS

DP = 3-8-13-0-0 (24) DI = 2.69 CD = 0.58

Mare Profile = 12-2-3-3-10 Speed = 14 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.12 Triads = 17-8-16

St. Simon: Mr. Prospector → Teddy

Rating for the Derby: ++

The mares contribution is completely off for the Kentucky Derby. The profile is completely split which corresponds to the inferior triads, highlighting the lack of Classic inheritance. It's a shame because the top of the chart and his chefs line is pretty half decent but when the contributors in the full chart are taken in its entirety, the mares line takes it down several notches. This horse will be even faster off of the AWS, but lacks at 10f. These numbers will not work in the Derby and it has nothing to do with Baffert. They are just simply wrong. Baffert can have his fun with his packed field in the Preakness.



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