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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

2021 Belmont Stakes Analysis


OVER 3.10


FRANCE GO DE INA

DP = 3-15-6-0-0 (24) DI = 7.00 CD = 0.88

Mare Profile = 7-3-6-5-6 Speed = 10 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.00 Triads = 16-14-17

St. Simon: Top linebreeds to Deputy Minister → Bunty Lawless

With a 7.00 chef index and a one point spread between the mares speed/stamina balance, this guy would be wise to sprint himself back to Japan before June gets here. The 15 points in the Intermediate slot is a dead giveaway as to where this guy belongs. Not so sure what they are thinking here with this Belmont entry, unless the distance of this race was lost in translation.


PROMISE KEEPER SCRATCHED

DP = 2-7-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57 CD = 0.69

Mare Profile = 10-4-1-4-11 Speed = 14 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.93 Triads = 15-9-16

St. Simon: Top Linebreeds to Mr. Prospector → Teddy.

This guy should hop on the plane with France Go De Ina where the two could vacation together, dining on the lush grass on the banks of Lake Ashi, with the beautiful views of Mount Fuji in the distance. They could discuss their great fortune in dodging the Belmont bullet.


OVERTOOK

DP = 7-9-14-0-0 (30) DI = 3.29 CD = 0.77

Mare Profile = 8-2-0-6-13 Speed = 10 Stamina = 19 Index = 0.56 Triads = 10-8-19

St. Simon: Top linebreeds to Deputy Minister → Bunty Lawless

Rare to see a colt with a chef index over 3.00 that has such a great amount of mare stamina entered into the Belmont and rare that one would ever be pointed out as a potential contender at this distance. He sits in the same exact spot as Vino Rosso from the 2018 edition with a 9 points stamina spread from his mares and a very low .56 mare index. Killer numbers but this type is hard to hit the win slot - he has that built in speed coupled with more than ample mare stamina to go the distance which notoriously screams board-hit material. He will be coming late with Bourbonic and Rombauer and he has more inbred speed than both of them which will come in handy in that 3 way duel. He will be passing tiring horses and his stamina could get him in a position on that tote board. Excellent longshot prospect underneath with his quiet breeding. Class lacks against the others with the style, but this race is about Balance, not class. Even if the classiest horse on the field did not have the 12f breeding, that class would mean nothing for this race. Overtook is 50-50 in the rain - sometimes these types gravitate stronger to the mares stamina, in which case, he will not find easy footing to gather the necessary speed late. Sometimes they gravitate to their chefs speed and in that case, he would be okay. No way to tell for sure. Overtook is not a bad throw in just in case, he is the true speed guy with an amazing set of mare's numbers. Board hit material. A 12f live longshot.


2.00 to 3.00


ESSENTIAL QUALITY

DP = 5-12-14-1-0 (32) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.66

Mare Profile = 12-3-2-2-12 Speed = 15 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.04 Triads = 17-7-16

St. Simon: Top Linebreeds to Mr. Prospector → Teddy.

He has a 3.00 chef index. He has 32 chef points. He has Tapit. He has everything he needs to be a contender for the win. It would appear that his connections agree, opting to sit out the Preakness in favor of a 12f race. His fourth place finish in the Derby is commendable, as he truly was up against it with his exact breeding for a win in that race. The fact that he even grabbed a piece shows what a quality colt he truly is. Tapit colts in his position always find favor in the Belmont over the Derby. A must use throughout your entire super ticket. If there is rain come Belmont day, his advantage takes an even heightened step up.


HOT ROD CHARLIE

DP = 1-4-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.60

Mare Profile = 11-1-5-11-3 Speed = 12 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.27 Triads = 17-17-19

Top linebreeds to Deputy Minister → Bunty Lawless

This guy is a hit or miss in this race. Most will look at the accomplishments of his sire and forecast them onto Charlie as having the ability to tackle the 12f but there is a simply no confident way to gauge that. Realistically, they have a completely different set of influential characters throughout the generations contributing different qualities on the bottom of their seperate charts. As expected, Oxbow pulled his weight for Charlie in the Derby and he reacted right on target. Catching that forward placement in 5th in the very onset of the Derby helped him just as much as it helped Medina Spirit, but he will not see that advantage in this race. Charlie’s resume is not the best on the field but he does like to hit the board. His spot was better realized in the Derby with the addition of Oxbow getting him to the 10f with that speed bias in his back pocket. For this race, confidence drops down a bit with the endurance factor coupled with his outward speed. A shot underneath is plausible but only because we just don’t know how far his sire is willing to realistically contribute.


BOURBONIC

DP = 2-6-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.63

Mare Profile = 8-3-2-6-8 Speed = 11 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.88 Triads = 13-11-16

St. Simon: Top 5 leading sires 37.69% (Northern Dancer, Neartic, Nearco, Bold Ruler, Nasrullah)

That St. Simon percentage is hard to overlook. Top notch. The highest of the group and he also touts a grand-sire (a listed chef) who won this race. These are not Derby numbers, so how he performed against the bias that day has no bearing at all in this race. His “style” of running is against what wins this race, as he will need to rely on a complete meltdown up front. There are a couple mid-pack and forward colts who most likely will not tire all the way to allow him to pass, but they should be winding down if any energy is overworked too hard early on. Highly capable of being among the top four in this 12f battle. Very capable of moving on a wet track as well. Best spot he's seen since his maiden. A very live contender.


BROOKLYN STRONG SCRATCHED

DP = 3-4-4-1-0 (12) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 5-6-5-7-7 Speed = 11 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.81 Triads = 16-18-19

St. Simon: Top 3 leading Sires 28.90% (Northern Dancer, Neartic, Nearco)

He has the numbers. He has the balance. His connections are hot and ready for this race. One thing is for sure with this guy, if there is any rain he MUST be used. No question. If it rains, put him on that ticket. If it doesn’t rain and this guy gets a good break this time, he has what it takes to go the distance. Because of the dynamics concerning Rock Your World (Stalking up front or finding a bad break again) players will shift. The Derby must be a toss for Brooklyn – he slammed the gate, found himself in 15th position and went nowhere on that bias. Looking to his previous in the Wood, he went nowhere on that harsh bias which was completely against his breeding. Actually, with his breeding and the bias of the Derby, if Brooklyn Strong had any kind of position with a good break, he would have flown home. He’s had a couple of hard spots since his layoff which makes him due for a breakout and he is holding extremely nice configurations to be a player in this race, rain or shine. He’s a contender.


GET HER NUMBER SCRATCHED

DP = 3-2-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.80

Mare Profile = 9-4-7-5-8 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.04 Triads = 20-16-20

St. Simon: Storm Cat → Nearco → St. Simon 25%

The only thing here is the St. Simon factor at 25% but it is through Storm Cat twice - on both the top and bottom of his chart. So he is getting two shots of Storm Cat in the third generation. Storm Cat is not a listed chef but he is a listed prominent non-chef who contributes directly to the Intermediate slot. This waters down any stamina that he may have gained through his mares. This guy should join the Mount Fuji party or go directly to an 8.5 or 9f race. The Belmont? No. No. No.


ROCK YOUR WORLD

DP = 3-4-8-1-0 (16) DI = 2.20 CD = 0.56

Mare Profile = 2-3-4-7-8 Speed = 5 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.41 Triads = 9-14-19

St. Simon: Top linebreeds to Fappiano → Teddy

This guy is built perfectly for this race and no matter what problems and bad luck this guy found himself in for the Derby, the fact remains that the configurations of his breeding were against the Derby race in the first place. The fact that he displayed his speed up front in the Santa Anita Derby gave some hope and had Rosario been properly ready with his foot in the stirrup, Rock would have been up with that speed favoring bias and taken it all the way. The main question is not whether Rosario will be properly ready this time (all doubts alleviated with the absence of Baffert) but whether or not the displayed speed at Santa Anita was a real show of exceptional talent or was he the recipient of catching that over the top speed lead bias that reared its head in the Derby as well for Medina Spirit. The fact that he galloped out so far is really pointing to a bias factor at the helm. It takes speed to win a race no matter the distance so one needs to really consider the possibility that it was more the bias at work in that killer California performance. Rock is built perfectly for this race. The best (besides the Tapit colt) on the entire field but there is a slight reservation over that displayed speed vs bias speed that calls for caution. He must get up front and he must display his speed IN SPITE of any outward bias. It is more realistic to assume that the Belmont track will also be speed-favoring by the time the race goes off, in which case, Rock retains that advantage. A good break this time with Rosario’s feet in the stirrups and Rock Your World will be flying with the best of them. A must use in any bet.

MIDNIGHT BOURBON SCRATCHED

DP = 4-2-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.71

Mare Profile = 9-3-3-5-6 Speed = 12 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.20 Triads = 15-11-14

St. Simon: Top linebreeds to Seattle Slew → Nasrullah → St. Simon 12.50%

This is a very fine colt and his 6th place performance in the Derby should be a toss for two reasons. One, his breeding was not conducive for the race in the first place and two, he ran between 11th and 14th position in the early stages on a highly speed favoring bias. He had no shot either way, however, he did go from 11th to 6th which is very eye-catching. In the Preakness, he maintained second from start to finish which shows he is a very competitive horse who can spread out his energy and endurance. This guy is more speed than stamina which hurts for this race. With his high 1.20 mare index coupled with his displayed speed in the Preakness, it seems that the 12f will not be sustainable. His class is excellent and he should be up front and could hold for a piece but Bourbonic and Rombauer (and possibly Overtook) will be hot when he starts turning cold. A piece of the action on the tail end? Not a crazy proposition.


WEYBURN SCRATCHED

DP = 5-8-10-1-0 (24) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.71

Mare Profile = 8-4-1-7-7 Speed = 12 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.95 Triads = 13-12-15

St. Simon: Top linebreeds to Bold Ruler → St. Simon 8.59%

I don’t get this whole thing here. This horse won the Gotham Stakes traveling one mile back in March at 47 to 1 odds and is now entered into the Belmont Stakes. What sense does that make? He tired on that rough track in the Wood Memorial traveling 9f which does not give much hope that he can travel on a nice easy track an additional 3f. His class is against him here and his numbers aren’t helping him either. Maybe I'm missing something but I'm seeing nothing in these mare's numbers that would say he has what it takes to even own a gate here.


KEEPMEINMIND SCRATCHED

DP = 0-2-4-0-0 (6) DI = 2.00 CD = 0.33

Mare Profile = 11-2-2-4-8 Speed = 13 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.18 Triads = 15-8-14

St. Simon: Top Linebreeds to Northern Dancer → St. Simon 8.59%

This guy should either hang out with Weyburn in the barn or he should tag along with France Go and Promise Keeper for that sight-seeing cruise to Mount Fiji.


UNDER 2.00


ROMBAUER

DP = 2-1-7-0-0 (10) DI = 1.86 CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 4-3-6-8-8 Speed = 7 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.57 Triads = 13-17-22

St. Simon: Top Linebreeds to Mr. Prospector → Teddy.

There is no doubt that Rombauer has the distance and there is also no doubt that he can roll with speed whenever he wants. He outdid Candy Man Rocket as a three year old which is really spectacular. He was always at the top of the lists along the way based on his configurations and his pedigree. His breeding is against a win in the Belmont and historically, the reason is because these types “usually” are coming from too far behind to make up all that ground and where they excel in stamina, they suffer in speed. They need serious reserves of speed after expending their stamina in the earlier stages of the races. That is contrary to the displayed speed of Rombauer, which makes him the obvious standout in this category. His switch to mid-pack in the Preakness is absolutely essential if he expects to win this race or even hit the board for that matter. The great Drosselmeyer sat in this very spot and he was able to overcome the dreaded “stamina” category running mid-pack and taking over down that stretch. It is rare but it can be done. With a 3 week turn around, it is much easier for a stamina guy to recoup and get ready to roll again. He will be at a much better spot for grandeur if he runs in his Preakness style, if not, he will be pinned with Bourbonic in a late speed duel. Historically, he is board-hit material but his displayed speed gives him a slight upper-hand for a win shot coming from this category. There is no doubt that Rombauer is the better horse over Bourbonic. And a major decision will need to be made as we get closer to the big race as to which one to ultimately take a stab with on top with Essential Quality (Rock on the side). That would mean going with the chalk which really hurts. We shall see.


KNOWN AGENDA

DP = 4-5-8-4-1 (22) DI = 1.44 CD = 0.32

Mare Profile = 10-3-0-6-13 Speed = 13 Stamina = 19 Index = 0.72 Triads = 13-9-19

St. Simon: Top Linebreeds to Mr. Prospector → Teddy.

Another with history against him for a win and another who was a consequence of a speed favoring front bias in the Derby which also should be a neglected race. His style and his past performances left much to be desired prior to the Derby anyway and they do no justice for this race either. He does have the distance, he does have a great 9 point spread in his mare’s balance and he does have Irad. So, the ability to tackle the distance is apparent, which it usually always is when they sit in this category, but the Belmont caters to BALANCE. With a stamina category guy, that balance is revealed ONLY through the outward display of it. Between the 3 colts here, Rombauer hits that mark and has outwardly displayed his speed consistently. Otherwise, if you can bypass his resume ,which does not do much for his class, and think that this race will be run at an extremely slow early pace then rest assured knowing, at the very least, he will travel the12f. He will pass tiring horses and he will improve his position from start to finish. How far he gets passed the entire pack is another matter altogether. He is seriously up against a win here though. If it rains, consideration should be bypassed. With the field as assembled, I'll take a pass again.


REBEL’S ROMANCE - SCRATCHED

DP = 2-8-3-8-1 (22) DI = 1.10 CD = 0.09

Mare Profile = 6-3-2-8-9 Speed = 9 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.61 Triads = 11-13-19

St. Simon: Top Linebreeds to Mr. Prospector → Teddy.

Bottom of the list with the highest inbred chef stamina on the field, however, he does NOT hold the highest amount of combined stamina on the field – that goes to Rock Your World. Rebel’s stands at 11.5f. Rock Your World stands at 12.9f. With these two, it is a matter of DISPLAYED PREVIOUS SPEED which will affect the final stretch run. Rock displayed his speed brilliantly but again, was it talent or the lead speed bias? Historically, Rebel’s Romance has a hard shot at the win in this race - that advantage does go elsewhere to that middle category. UAE Derby winners do have a much easier time making a name for themselves in this race over the Derby and his connections did well to wait it out. He is a good addition in a few spots on the super if you feel you can spend a few more dollars, but important not to rely on him by himself in one spot. He must be attached with others.


OUTLOOK:


Rock Your World is the best built contender for this race with Essential Quality not far behind. Rock Your World is NOT an easy lock for a win based on the idea that he caught the flyer in the Santa Anita Derby and there is a slight chance that his “displayed” speed was falsely enhanced. The second reason he is not an easy lock is because he absolutely needs to be somewhere up front and there is never a guarantee that he will get it. With that in mind, Rock Your World becomes the one who must be used in all 4 spots and NOT relied on in any one spot.


Essential Quality has everything in his back pocket to be a major player for the 12f and his advantage in this race is extremely heightened over the Derby. If it rains, he would have ZERO excuse for a loss.


Rombauer and Bourbonic both have ample stamina to charge at the end and pass tiring horses.


Rebel’s Romance and Overtook deserve a nod somewhere to fill out extra spots on the superfecta just in case.

________________________________________________________________________________________

Brooklyn Strong is ready for a breakout. Bad bias in the Derby and bad bias in the Wood both against him after his layoff. He is bursting at the seams to run and should be ready to roll, rain or shine. No bad break or slamming into the gate and he runs with them all the way. (PROBABLY BYPASSING THIS RACE)


Hot Rod Charlie is the 50-50 horse. No way to tell based on his configurations and if Oxbow wants to continue to contribute.

Also important to note - this analysis is pure breeding. There are no post positions and no past performance sheets yet. It is at it's purest and based only on the 12f distance - no outside influence and no other info from other sources. Strictly Pedigree. Which is exactly how I like it!


New Super Ticket After all of the Scratches - if it's even worth it any more:


FIRST TICKET:

$1.00 Super Ticket = $16.00 ---- $5.00 Super Ticket = $80.00

1st - ROCK YOUR WORLD

2nd - ESSENTIAL QUALITY

3rd - ROMBAUER - BOURBONIC - OVERTOOK - CHARLIE

4th - ROMBAUER - BOURBONIC - OVERTOOK - CHARLIE - KNOWN AGENDA


SECOND TICKET: (Going for an upset)

$1.00 Super Ticket = $36.00

1st - RYW, EQ, Bourbonic

2nd - RYW, EQ, Bourbonic

3rd - RYW, EQ, Bourbonic, Rombauer, Overtook

4th - RYW, EQ, Bourbonic, Rombauer, Overtook


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