2020 European/Japan Prep Winners Analysis

Sept 28, 2019

Juddmonte Royal Lodge Newmarket


Chefs = 3-1-10-6-0 (20) Index = .82 CD = .05

Mares = 2-12-2-13-5 Speed = 14 Stamina = 18 Index = .72 Triads = 16-27-20

Turf race. Loaded in stamina top and bottom. Even though he posted a track record for this race, he most likely would not spin the same on dirt in Churchill, however, the mare side is so loaded that it would be nice to witness the effect. Aiden O'Brien did nominate him for the Derby so we will have to wait and see what the greatest turf trainer in the world decides to do with this stamina guy.

Sept 29, 2019

Beresford Curraugh


Chefs = 5-2-21-14-0 (42) Index = .71 CD = -.04

Mares = 5-7-3-9-7 Speed = 12 Stamina = 16 Index = .77 Triads = 15-19-19

Not nominated for Derby. Loaded Galileo colt on turf. With this breeding, Aiden O'Brien as yet another turf star. Gorgeous overseas stamina profile top and bottom that attempted all weather surface next out but did not get the job done there. Would most likely show a further drop if let loose on dirt anyway. With a negative .04 CD coming from overseas there is no doubt Aiden will continue onward with Turf.

Oct. 6, 2019

Quatar Prix de Jean Luc Lagardere Longchamp


Chefs = 1-9-18-0-0 (28) Index = 2.11 CD = .39

Mares = 2-5-3-10-5   Speed = 7   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.52   Triads = 10-18-18

Not nominated. Serious run down the stretch and should be taken seriously on this side of the globe for turf race in the Breeders Cup. The Kentucky Derby is not the place for this Godolphin horse anyway. Incredible potential going forward and looks to be holding the strongest capability for success going forward, just not on dirt.

Nov. 1, 2019

Vertem Futurity Trophy Newcaste


Chefs = 5-6-7-2-0 (20) Index = 2.64 CD = .70

Mares = 5-7-4-9-6   Speed = 12   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.84   Triads = 16-20-19

Not Nominated for Derby. All Weather Surface. Beat the breeding of Innisfree on this surface. Typical overseas overloaded mare stamina that would find a very difficult time competing with our speed demons in the USA. If he invades the Belmont Stakes, he will give our guys a ride for their money. Spectacular for the June race.

Nov. 23, 2019

Cattleya Sho Tokoyo


Chefs = 3-7-10-0-0 (20) Index = 3.00 CD = .65

Mares = 5-6-5-10-3   Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.00   Triads = 16-21-18

He flew down that sloppy stretch like a champ. With that bias and these numbers, there is no denying that he would have at least a shot at the board if he were to make a gate in Kentucky. He has the distance and he has a very nice balance for the Derby. The problems arise from actually getting the gate in the first place and then taking that long ride here. The numbers are good, but not great enough to get as excited with a Japanese horse like one would be with Le Vent Se Leve from the past. No comparison.

Dec. 18, 2019

Zen-Nippon Kawasaki


Chefs = 1-0-5-0-0 (6) Index = 1.40 CD = .33

Mares = 2-3-7-7-4   Speed = 5   Stamina = 11   Index = 0.64   Triads = 12-17-18

The 1.40 Index with that .33 CD is one we have seen a few times in the past. Beholder, Shared Belief, Le Vent Se Leve all held the same. Something about that configuration that sticks out and is hard to ignore. Unfortunately he was a no show for the Hyacinth which put his 20 points on hold and handed the occupant of leaderboard from Japan to Cafe Pharoah below.

Feb 23, 2010

Hyacinth Tokoyo


Chefs = 3-1-2-0-0 (6) Index = 5.00 CD = 1.17

Mares = 6-5-2-6-8   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.79   Triads = 13-13-16

The set-up of these numbers are completely off for the Derby. Even if Baffert himself had this son of American Pharoah boarded in his own barn, it still would never happen. The problem with American Pharoah offspring is that they, most likely, will eventually end up running to their true breeding as opposed to a Baffert Clone horse who may or may not have been spiked. This guy ran a great race in the Hyacinth but he has no chance at Churchill Downs.

Feb 28, 2020

Patton Dundalk


Chefs = 5-6-7-2-0 (22) Index = 2.64 CD = .70

Mares = 4-6-5-8-5   Speed = 10   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.83   Triads = 15-19-18

Not nominated. Good call.

March 4, 2020

Condition Stakes Kempton Park


Chefs = 1-0-3-0-0 (4) Index = 1.67 CD = .50

Mares = 7-5-4-8-7   Speed = 12   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.88   Triads = 16-17-19

Polytrack. Undefeated German colt, not nominated for Triple Crown.

March 28, 2020

UAE Derby Meydan

March 28, 2020

Fukurya Nakayama

April 2, 2020

Cardinal Condition Chelmsford

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