2020 Breeders Cup Classic Analysis



3.10 and Over


TIZ THE LAW

DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 7-6-3-7-4 Speed = 13 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.28 Triads = 16-16-14

The Tapit Factor will be front and center here, so disregard the mare’s numbers. Tiz the Law has the highest amount of inbred speed (slightly above Improbable) and the highest amount of inbred stamina (because of Tapit) on the field. This guy has no excuse for a loss in this race. (Unless Baffert resorts to a Bayern move.) Think Vino Rosso. Highest amount of inbred speed on the field coupled with extravagant Tapit stamina. His main competition does not come from Baffert’s barn – it comes from the configurations of Tom’s d’etat. Exactly like the Kentucky Derby, go for the shot against the odds and spread Tiz in the one and two spot on your super. His balance of speed and stamina at this distance is perfect. He’s well rested and he will be looking for revenge against Baffert. He will most likely have the shortest odds on the field so he must be played exactly like we did in the Kentucky Derby - matched with another.

IMPROBABLE

DP = 12-9-13-0-0 (34) DI = 4.23 CD = 0.97

Mare Profile = 6-6-4-7-7 Speed = 12 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.88 Triads = 16-17-18

Baffert has three monsters heading into this race and out of the three, Improbable enters the gate with the best advantage of his trio. This is Baffert’s smoking gun. The Classic caters to high speed inheritance (4.23 here) with a mare balance that leans to stamina, triads that ascend across the board and chefs total points above 30. He is directly on par with Tiz the Law as far as chef speed, but then Tiz gains the upper hand in stamina from those sires. Mares make no difference with Tiz, but they do with Improbable. His mare index is also very nice. Improbable hits every point. It appears that Improbable prefers some distance as depicted in his PP’s as of late and the way he positions himself will prove to be the perfect spot behind Authentic and Maximum Security if they are crawling around that oval – if Baffert resorts to his normal playbook. He gains his momentum after the final turn and with his position, he will be sitting pretty and ready to unleash. Baffert will use each of his 3 guys to enhance the other and it is Improbable who will capitalize. He is set up with everything he needs. The best balances on the field go to Tiz the Law, Tom’s d’etat and Improbable. How you configure them on your super should depend on the odds and which outcomes will pay the best.

TACITUS

DP = 6-14-11-1-0 (32) DI = 3.92 CD = 0.78

Mare Profile = 7-6-3-7-6 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.05 Triads = 16-16-16

Just like Tiz the Law, Tacitus has a nice high speedy chef index coupled with that crazy Tapit stamina. The big difference is that Tacitus is lacking the will and determination to cross the wire in the same manner that Tiz the Law exudes. Crossing the finish line first generally doesn’t occur to him. This is the Breeders Cup Classic. The best of the year come together and unlike the Kentucky Derby, he is running against real competitors, not just against those who won a 9f Derby prep. He’s got a great set-up but Classic winners are monsters (with the exception of Bayern) who have the tenacity, the bravery, the willpower and the courage to get to that wire first. Tacitus lacks a great deal among this group in that regard.

GLOBAL CAMPAIGN

DP = 6-9-13-0-0 (28) DI = 3.31 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 7-2-1-7-12 Speed = 9 Stamina = 19 Index = 0.53 Triads = 10-10-20

This guy can’t pick a side and stick with it. He is speed oriented on top and he has a 10 point (deceiving) spread in his mares speed/stamina balance. Everything shifts to the left in his mares profile even though the numbers are stronger on the right. In the mare’s profile, notice the 2 and 1 in the Intermediate and Classic Slot. That right there waters down that killer stamina and it shifts everything – WHEN HE OVERDOES his speed early on in a race. It inevitably grabs him late and his speed drops significantly. He has speed from the top and major stamina on the bottom. Oddly, his configurations do not combine based on his past performances, but rather separate depending on his mood. With the class and quality found elsewhere among this group, it would seem that no matter which side Global Campaign decides to run to during the Classic, it wouldn’t be enough either way.

3.00 EXACT

MAXIMUM SECURITY

DP = 5-2-7-0-0 (14) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.86

Mare Profile = 9-3-3-6-10 Speed = 12 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.83 Triads = 15-12-19

His numbers are “gentle” and even, a bit stagnant but fine none-the less. It is proper to pit him against Baffert’s other two and he does fall short against Improbable for this particular race. He will be controlling a slow “Baffert playbook pace” and he does have the breeding of course to make the distance, but the ending thunder will remain just as his numbers suggest, stagnant. He is much better suited for this race than Authentic and he appears to have about the same will and determination as Improbable. He should be comfortable enough to remain among the top 4 for a super spot but with Tiz’s speed and endurance capability, a stand must be taken. His running style and determination should keep him as third and fourth slot material. (Of course, the second spot may be a real option as well.)

AUTHENTIC

DP = 4-2-6-0-0 (12) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.83

Mare Profile = 4-7-9-7-3 Speed = 11 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.09 Triads = 20-23-19

His negative speed/stamina balance from his mares stands out like a sore thumb among Baffert’s trio – and not in a good way. In the history of the Breeder’s Cup Classic, not even one time has a competitor seen the Winner’s circle with a negative mare balance. Even American Pharoah at least had a 2 point uptick leaning him to mare stamina dominance. This is the Breeders Cup Classic, not the Kentucky Derby. Out of Baffert’s three entries, Authentic is standing with the greatest disadvantage of them all. He will crawl around that track with Maximum Security and hopefully the other trainers have become well aware of Baffert’s normal playbook. The only way this horse sees the winners circle is if Baffert unleashed those Salon Pas patches and spiked that feed in his barn stall. Since the threat of that is always a grim possibility, he must be attached at the hip with Maximum in the same super slots. I have given up on skating around my words when it comes to Baffert’s unseemly tactics. This horse, on his own merit and with his breeding, truly has no legitimate shot at the winners circle in this particular race. In his case, it is more like an illegitimate shot.

BY MY STANDARDS

DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.63

Mare Profile = 6-6-7-6-3 Speed = 12 Stamina = 9 Index = 1.32 Triads = 19-19-16

With only 8 total points in his chef’s profile, his mare’s numbers dominate his set-up so more emphasis is drawn from them. The fact that his triads descend and the contribution from the mares speed/stamina balance is negative 3, reveals that this would never be enough for the Breeders Cup Classic against this particular field.

TITLE READY

DP = 5-2-7-0-0 (14) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.86

Mare Profile = 10-4-6-6-6   Speed = 14   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.25   Triads = 20-16-18

No need to waste time. This horse does not belong here. Negative mare stamina - triads descend - 10 points in the Brilliant spot of the mares. Hard Pass.

2.00 – 2.90 Average

TOM’S D’ETAT

DP = 8-10-23-0-1 (42) DI = 2.36 CD = 0.57

Mare Profile = 4-3-5-10-7 Speed = 7 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.55 Triads = 12-18-22

Exceptional configurations for the Breeders Cup Classic. He has a 10 point spread leaning to stamina from his mares. He has 42 loaded points in his chef’s profile. He is stacked with 23 points in the Classic slot from those chefs. This horse, with his average 2.36 index skated to victory on a wet track at Oaklawn against the advantaged Improbable back in April. He was at a major disadvantage but that loaded profile kicked in at the right time. It will kick in again in the Classic. But the main thing here, is that Tom’s d’etat has never run a 10f race, which will prove to be his most advantaged spot yet and his perfect optimum distance. Take the odds and fly with it. This guy is built perfectly for the Classic. He is up against the crème de la crème of the 2020 speed guys and there is a major probability that he will capitalize off of that dynamic. In addition, there is NO true stamina horse entered this year, so the distinction falls onto Tom because of the incredible amount of mare stamina he inherited. None come close to that 10 point spread coupled with an outstanding 42 loaded points from his chefs. That is gold. The only thing that gives a major pause with a single on top bet with this guy is that Baffert will always try to go for that slow pace after he gets (one of) his guys on the lead. Just by looking at the PP’s, it would seem that his playbook will point directly to Maximum Security for that exact scenario. Lead and then crawl to the far turn. Because of this, Tom must be spread. He must be used and he must be spread. Take the shot with the odds on top and make sure his name hits some of the other slots on that super as well. He is built like a steam engine for this race. Tom’s d’etat and Tiz the Law have the highest advantage in this race this year. But Bob Baffert’s antics on the lead loom large.

HIGHER POWER

DP = 9-6-10-3-0 (28) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 12-3-4-5-7 Speed = 15 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.35 Triads = 19-12-16

He did very well for himself grabbing 3rd in last year’s Classic. That was different group entirely. He has no chance against the breeding found in this gate this year.

SWISS SKYDIVER

DP = 2-0-4-0-0 (6) DI = 2.00 CD = 0.67

Mare Profile = 9-2-5-8-6 Speed = 11 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.00 Triads = 16-15-19

As usual, I cannot factor in a filly when it comes to the breeding. The numbers do not correlate. Hoping she goes to the Oaks so that we don’t have to think about it. If she shows up here in a gate, my usual is to throw the filly into the bottom slots of the superfecta. That strategy usually pays off. - update: She's heading to the Oaks.

UNDER 2.00

NONE.

Not one entered this year. Huge opportunity that was missed for a stamina guy this year. Mr. Big News would have been spot on here against all of the speed on this field.


Superfecta:


Since there are no true “stamina” horses entered this year, the main superior stamina falls onto two main competitors.


Tiz the Law, who has demonstrated his full reliance on his grand-sire Tapit, along with the highest amount of inbred speed on the field. This is Tiz the Law’s most advantaged race to date and the only excuse he would have for losing this race is if Baffert decides to pull a “Bayern.”

Tom’s d’etat, historically, has the perfect set-up to explode in this race. He has demonstrated incredible late speed and adding in his 10 point mare stamina to that speed is only matched by Tiz the Law. Tom has the best configurations on the field for this race. This is the speed/stamina match-up as far as competition and only one side can win. One will offer half descent odds and one will not. These two are the main extremes, one will falter and one will reign supreme. Tiz the Law has a slight advantage historically but as the Classic has shown year after year, the victor of these two extremes lies in direct correlation to the pace of the race. Only one horse can capitalize on something that can only remain unknown until the gates open.

Improbable is, historically, Baffert’s best “legitimate” shot.

Maximum Security and Authentic both enter with a slight disadvantage but will be positioned properly so they both deserve an underneath nod. Between the two, Maximum Security holds the edge. Baffert is too slick to disregard unfortunately so they must be tied at the hip when betting. Swiss Skydiver, the filly with numbers that will not coincide, must be kept under with these two Baffert guys just in case.

To further explain the dynamics of speed vs stamina in the Breeders Cup Classic, we need only look to the past which basically follows suit year over year. For instance, last year Vino Rosso was the major speed guy. Code of Honor was the major stamina guy. These two had the advantage historically, but depending on the eventual pace, will dictate who takes over that advantage only after the first second of the gates opening. It will be one side or the other. On the flip side, sometimes the stamina overtakes, like Gun Runner, Drosselmeyer, Blame, and others. The receiving end of the trophy will be dictated by the pace and every year, the highest advantage prior to loading falls onto the highest speed guy or the highest stamina guy. When one of them is packing both attributes, he has the highest advantage of all.

Since Tiz the Law is packing both the heaviest inbred speed and the heaviest inbred stamina (Tapit) one cannot rely on Tom’s d’etat in any single slot across the superfecta. He is basically the default stamina guy. Depending on how the race unfolds will determine which end of the spectrum reigns supreme. The fact that Tom is packing 42 chef profile points puts him at a much greater success probability rate than Code of Honor had last year.

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