2019 Belmont Stakes Analysis



The last leg of the 2019 Triple Crown is the true test of Champions. This race finally recognizes the stamina of these 3 year olds which is the only time of the year where we get to see what a true thoroughbred can accomplish and the winner brings back a time in history where breeding was at its finest.



2.10 to 3.00


Game Winner

DP = 3-6-10-1-0 (20) DI = 2.33 CD = 0.55

Mare Profile = 6-1-4-5-11 Speed = 7 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.55 Triads = 11-10-20

Mare CD = -0.52 Chef CD = 0.55 Combined = -0.24

If Game Winner takes a gate in this race, he is, without a shadow of a doubt, the horse to beat as far as inheritance goes. Within this advantaged 2.10 to 3.00 group, he is packing the highest amount of chef stamina and the endurance gained from his mares is unmatched. His mare CD calculates to a negative .52 which when combined with his chefs puts his optimum distance squarely on the nose of 12f. This in itself is not the main reason why he is an easy single on top - what does make him the absolute star of the show is that he has shown his spectacular speed in previous races. It takes speed to win a race and when it comes to stamina horses they usually lack in that regard. Being the son of Candy Ride who allows his better sons to display that hidden magical speed, there is no better competition in this race. The combined numbers in his profiles offset each other perfectly and will allow Game Winner to sustain an easy pace throughout the entire 12f distance. The fact that he posted a 108 pace figure in the late stage of the Kentucky Derby on that sloppy track with his stamina puts him as the number one easy single for this year’s Belmont Stakes. With the absence of Country House and Plus Que Parfait, Bob Baffert has himself another Belmont Stakes Winner this year. There are none that come close to his speed/stamina balance on this field. The 9 point spread with the mares speed and stamina is close to perfect for this race. The triads say it all. Complete and total dominance in endurance with displayed winning speed. It does not get better than that.


Spinoff

DP = 6-10-18-0-0 (34) DI = 2.78 CD = 0.65

Mare Profile = 4-3-5-10-6 Speed = 7 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.59 Triads = 12-18-21

Mare CD = -0.39 Chef CD = .65 Combined CD = -0.07

The second best set of numbers on this field as far as what hits the board in the Belmont Stakes defaults to this guy. Since Plus Que Parfait and Country House are taking a pass, his 2.78 chef index, his .65 chef CD and the configurations of the triads give him the necessary numbers to make the board. Since he did not fire in the rain at Churchill last out, he appears now that he is favoring those mares which are dumping a ton of stamina on him. Speed dominates on a sloppy track and with the low chef CD it appears that Spinoff is indeed in favor of his stamina inheritance. The mare’s profile, when calculated, gives him a mare CD of negative .39 which puts his optimum combined distance at approximately 11.3f. Notice the difference between his CD (.65) next to Game Winner (.55). This is a lot. Also, the configurations of the triads dump more speed onto Spinoff which will affect the endurance capability. The 9 point spread between the speed and stamina will see Spinoff accept the 12f much better than those below in this same category.


Master Fencer

DP = 3-4-6-1-0 (14) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.64

Mare Profile = 7-5-2-8-6 Speed = 12 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.95 Triads = 14-15-16

Mare CD = -0.04 Chef CD = 0.64 Combined CD = 0.28

The Chef numbers are there for the distance and the history of this race. The mare’s numbers lack but they aren’t so bad that he doesn’t have a shot at the board because of them. His chef’s contribution is definitely on par but the 2 point spread is a bit disheartening. His mare CD calculates to a negative .04 which in itself is fantastic but when combined with his chef’s inheritance, it gets him to only 10.3f with ease. All of the colts will run the 12f barring any mishaps, so he is in a much better position than some of the others. What stands out here as a negative for this particular race is his likely jockey. Leparoux is not the most gifted jockey on dirt or maybe he is just unlucky on dirt, but that is something that needs to be looked at. When a colt sits in this advantaged category, every single piece must be looked at without mercy. Because of the fact that only one colt on this field (Game Winner) has every single solitary item in its rightful place, the bottom 3 slots are up for grabs. Within this category, these are the guys who have the greatest ease but not all can hit the board. The chefs are perfect, the mares are a bit deficient but better than others, and the jockey leaves a bit to be desired. On the other hand, he did pour it on in the late stages of the Derby on a sloppy track which is highly commendable and could possibly be the key to hitting a piece of the bottom. He has negatives, he has positives. If one singles Game Winner on top, the easiest solution is to throw him into the bottom. His chef’s numbers and his late beyer figure deserve a few dollars on the bottom.


Sir Winston

DP = 4-8-14-0-0 (26) DI = 2.71 CD = 0.62

Mare Profile = 7-4-3-14-2 Speed = 11 Stamina = 16 Index = 1.00 Triads = 14-21-19

Mare CD = 0.00 Chef CD = 0.62 Combined CD = 0.31

This guy reminds me of Tenfold from last year’s Belmont. The chefs are there but the higher amount of speed found in that Mare’s index will hinder his endurance a great deal. The 7 found in the brilliant slot of his mares and the higher 21 in the middle slot found in his triads pushes everything to the right and enhances his speed which affects his ability to sustain it. Because War of Will looks to be the main lead speed for this race at this point, the early pace figure is likely to be closer to a 90+ which would be a bit reminiscent of the Bluegrass race as opposed to the Peter Pan. If this is the case, Sir Winston will be packing it in before the final turn. If the 2019 Belmont Stakes is run at a snail’s pace for the first half, there may be some hope here but it would seem unlikely to be the case. The only saving grace with that perfect chef Cd is the 5 point spread between the speed and stamina inheritance of the mares. That 5 point spread allows for consideration of a board hit in this race because of the lack of such huge point spreads elsewhere. A few dollars in the lower spots of a super could be in order here especially if the early pace is slow.


Intrepid Heart

DP = 4-9-14-1-0 (28) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.57

Mare Profile = 10-2-2-4-9 Speed = 12 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.00 Triads = 14-8-15

Mare CD = 0.00 Chef CD = 0.57 Combined = 0.29

His numbers resemble Sir Winston but he is packing a bit more stamina from his chefs (but not much more). His past performances are little more consistent in terms of his spread pace figures which coincides better with his inheritance. The split profile of the mares is not good and the 1.00 mare index pushes his configurations almost exact to Sir Winston. He would need a slow pace as well to be a factor. His combined CD’s (chefs .57 and mares 0.00) place him at a 9.9f optimum. Just like all the rest on this filed, he will run the 12f distance but he will not find ease with it after he completes the backstretch. With the lack of perfect numbers on this field, all have a shot at the board but these numbers are truly in need of a snail’s pace to be a factor. The major problem with all of this is that this guy happens to be a son of Tapit and for some reason they do not gravitate to nor do they care about the mare input. His set-up mimics Tonalist a great deal and only the handicapper can decide if he wants to bypass what the numbers are saying in favor of the Tapit Magic that is so prominent in the Belmont Stakes. He is one of three sons who do not hold the numbers but certainly holds the mystery of Tapit and the 12f Belmont Stakes. His numbers are much better than Tacitus for this race.


Bourbon War

DP = 6-12-12-2-0 (32) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.69

Mare Profile = 9-3-4-4-10 Speed = 12 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.89 Triads = 16-11-18

This Tapit colt does mimic Tapwrit and Creator almost spot on and between the 3 entered, he is the one who is standing out above the other two. Tapit colts do not depict winning historical Belmont numbers, however, they do it consistently and that cannot be ignored. If this guy is entered into this race, his chef’s numbers and the Tapit factor must be top priority. His mare addition gives him more distance than the other two Tapit’s which means (historically), this guy is a very strong player in this category.


Owendale

DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.63

Mare Profile = 7-7-4-5-8 Speed = 14 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.00 Triads = 18-16-17

Mare CD = 0.00 Chef CD = 0.63 Combined CD = 0.32

Between Sir Winston, Intrepid Heart and this guy, all three are in the same boat, however Owendale has a much better resume. This is a very talented horse and his chef’s numbers are on par with hitting the board in the Belmont, however his mare’s numbers (just like Sir Winston and Intrepid Heart) lack in the necessary added stamina. If the early pace is above 85, Owendale will start to go backwards. His combined optimum is under 10f and he will be pushed to his max nearing the final turn.


3.10 and Over


Tacitus

DP = 6-10-11-1-0 (28) DI = 3.31 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 7-6-3-7-6 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.05 Triads = 16-16-16

Mare CD = 0.03 Chef CD = 0.75 Combined CD = 0.41

Everything about these numbers is screaming to walk away. The high 3.31 index, the even point spread and the triads is just so weak for the 12f. The huge difference between Tacitus and guys like Creator and Tapwrit is that 3.31 index. It is higher in speed inheritance which steals from the stamina. Just like with Intrepid Heart, only the handicapper can choose to bypass the optimum distance found here (under 10f) and go with the Tapit factor. The 3.31 index is against the Tapit factor historically and Bourbon War is the one who is holding the goods in that department.


Everfast

DP = 3-13-12-0-0 (28) DI = 3.67 CD = 0.68

Mare Profile = 7-3-2-9-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.90 Triads = 12-14-16

Mare CD = -0.08 Chef CD = .68 Combined = .26

There is something extremely intriguing about that .68 CD sitting next to his Chef’s 3.67 index. The other intriguing factor is the 3 found in the Brilliant spot of his chef’s profile. That set up offers Everfast a fantastic opportunity to sustain his speed much further than the average higher index colt. Unfortunately for this guy, the mares do not offer enough to offset the higher chef index and this would be imperative for the 12f. Because of the lower chef CD, he can sustain his speed further than average but not quite enough for the full 12f of this race. His optimum is 10.1f which is actually better than some on this field and he does hold a 4 point spread between his speed/stamina from his mares. There is a good case to be made that year after year, a strong speed guy does make his way onto that board. Between Tacitus and this guy, the numbers favor him but the Tapit factor favors Tacitus. After all is said and done, neither one is truly suited for this race but because of the lack of serious 12f stamina found in this field, his .68 CD does hold some merit for underneath consideration. It may be pushing it but depending on how one configures their super ticket, adding that CD into the picture may not be such a bad bet.


2.00 and Under:


Tax

DP = 3-5-23-1-0 (32) DI = 1.56 CD = 0.31

Mare Profile = 7-5-4-8-8 Speed = 12 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.82 Triads = 16-17-20

Mare CD = -0.16 Chef CD = .31 Combined CD = 0.00

Between the two guys in this category, (which, believe it or not, is the least advantaged spot of the entire field) this guy is actually holding more stamina than War of Will. It is important to realize that because of the fact that he did not fire on the sloppy track in the Derby actually makes him look even better for this particular race (again, if it isn’t raining!) The reason he did not run on that sloppy track may very well be because he is favoring all of that stamina found in his numbers. He is actually holding the 3rd best optimum distance (11f) on the field for this race. He is still below but much higher when pitted against the field that he is entered against. He is gaining his extra stamina from his chefs and his mares are offering even more but the 7 in the brilliant slot of his profile water it down just a bit. With a nice even pace Tax should be just fine after the final turn while most of the others are packing it in. He is a strong board hit contender even though this category does not have an advantage at all. He is worth the addition into a Superfecta play.


War of Will

DP = 5-8-17-4-0 (34) DI = 1.72 CD = 0.41

Mare Profile = 4-7-4-12-2 Speed = 11 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.95 Triads = 15-23-18

Mare CD = -0.03 Chef CD = .41 Combined CD = .17

The stamina comes from the chefs, high speed comes from his mares. His optimum distance is 10.4f which is one of the main reasons why he was a contender in both of the first two legs of the Triple Crown. He is quite possibly the best bred of the group but he holds no advantage in this race whatsoever. Since there is a strong possibility that he goes for the lead, his standing drops even further. Can the strong influence from St. Simon help his cause? Absolutely. Has he shown his grit and determination along the way? Emphatically yes. Does his numbers coincide with winners and ITM board hits in this particular race? Not in the least. Does he deserve consideration for a board hit against this particular group traveling 12f? The chefs configuration is very strong when pitted against the field and his resume and class will serve him well in this race but he is up against it especially with Game Winner sitting at the very top of this list.

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