2019 Belmont Analysis without Game Winner



This analysis is geared towards a Superfecta or Trifecta bet. There is only one colt on the field who is holding the proper set-up to navigate the 12f with a bit of ease. There are 3 Tapit colts also entered, which rarely follow the normal configurations historically found with board hits. Since the heavy hitters for this race have all declined, this leaves a small field but a difficult task in that all of these horses will travel the 12f and it is now a matter of figuring out which ones will gravitate to the stamina inheritance found from their mares or their chefs. The more balanced and even, the greater the chance of traveling the 12f with enough speed to fly down that stretch.


2.10 to 3.00


Spinoff

DP = 6-10-18-0-0 (34) DI = 2.78 CD = 0.65

Mare Profile = 4-3-5-10-6 Speed = 7 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.59 Triads = 12-18-21

Mare CD = -0.39 Chef CD = .65 Combined CD = -0.07

The point spread between the speed and stamina found in the mares profile is the highest on the field. Nine large points are separating that speed and it is dumping a massive amount of stamina here. Without the top three big guns, Game Winner, Country House and Plus Que Parfait, the best set of Belmont Numbers falls right here. The fact that he did not fire on the sloppy track is saying that he is indeed favoring those mares and the “average” 2.78 chef index is highlighting him as a contender for a Superfecta spot, if not actually taking the trophy altogether. If it rains, we must look to his run in the Derby as a major negative and look elsewhere but if it is sunny and clear, this guy should run to his previous consistent ways and be a nice addition with favorable odds. This guy, in this position, is reminiscent of Irish War Cry from 2017 who was holding the best set of numbers on the field but a Tapit colt ran him down.


Intrepid Heart

DP = 4-9-14-1-0 (28) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.57

Mare Profile = 10-2-2-4-9 Speed = 12 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.00 Triads = 14-8-15

Mare CD = 0.00 Chef CD = 0.57 Combined = 0.29

Tapit colt that now needs to be highly considered for a shot in the Superfecta. His numbers are much better than Tacitus for this race and the mare set-up resembles Tonalist, the 2014 Belmont winner. Of major importance here is the fact that this type of set-up needs a slow opening pace (just like in 2014 with opening fractional times of 24.06 and 48.52) His mare index is very high but his chef’s CD is very low. The fact that he weakened in his last in the Peter Pan Stakes traveling 9f at Belmont does not show a colt who is favoring that Chef CD but rather a colt who is favoring the high 10 points in the Brilliant slot of the mares. The fact that we are left with only one horse (Spinoff) with the correct configurations for the Belmont and the fact that his Chef profile is not on par with his half-brother Tonalist; (DP = 5-17-18-1-1 which is a large 42 points total) and also with the fact that Tonalist appeared to love Belmont Park (First or Second every time) does not give Intrepid Heart an obvious bypass on his set-up being a Tapit colt. Tonalist had a combined distance capability of 10.6f but obviously gravitated to his mare’s endurance. Intrepid Heart has a combined distance capability of 10.1 and would need to gravitate in the same way. With the addition of Joevia who appears hell bent on getting that lead, he may push the pace a bit faster in the opening stages which will have an adverse effect on Intrepid Heart. If you believe that the pace will be slow, then you can’t ignore a Tapit colt for an underneath spot but that mare index is tough against his other half-brothers who are entered here.


Bourbon War

DP = 6-12-12-2-0 (32) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.69

Mare Profile = 9-3-4-4-10 Speed = 12 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.89 Triads = 16-11-18

Mare CD = -0.10 Chef CD = .69 Combined CD = .25

In this advantaged category, Bourbon War and Owendale are holding the most inherited Chef speed of the group but the big difference is the point spread with the mares and the fact that Bourbon War is a Tapit colt. It takes speed to win a race and with the absence of Game Winner, the .69 CD and the sire, Bourbon War’s stock rises a great deal in this race. It is his speed contribution that puts him in a better position against the stamina guys with a fairly good chance that he can endure the added distance. He is resembling both Tapwrit and Creator with his configurations and even though they do lack a great deal with what wins and hits the board historically, there is no denying the power of Tapit in the Belmont Stakes. Out of the 3 Tapit colts entered, the mares are giving him more stamina which will bode well for a board hit against this group. His chef index is giving him a nice shot of speed but not too high where it steals from the stamina (like Tacitus).


Master Fencer

DP = 3-4-6-1-0 (14) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.64

Mare Profile = 7-5-2-8-6 Speed = 12 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.95 Triads = 14-15-16

Mare CD = -0.04 Chef CD = 0.64 Combined CD = 0.28

His combined mare/chef CD is very similar to Bourbon War, however he is holding more stamina from the Chefs. For this particular field, having additional stamina is extremely advantageous because the numbers are lacking throughout. The point spread between the speed and stamina is not up to par with the Belmont norm, however, the same could be said with most on this field. The mare index is high, the chef CD is low and there is a bit of speed being thrown in from the mares which is balancing him fairly well. These configurations generally do well in the Belmont Stakes, however there are 2 others who are closely aligned with the set-up; Sir Winston and Intrepid Heart. Between the 3, one must look closely at the final stages of their past races to judge the potential projection of what will happen after that 11f mark. The fact that he poured it on late in the Derby looks nice, however, after studying deeper, the fact that he did as well as he did on that sloppy track may indeed mean that he is favoring that .95 mare index and leaning closer to his speed inheritance. He ran dead last for one mile and came forward with Game Winner and Tacitus late. He still fell short as he passed tiring horses. He will pass tiring horses in this race again, but he will pass them with much further track to conquer. If Spinoff can run to his breeding on a clean track, Master Fencer probably won’t be passing him. He then has a few Tapit colts who run this distance with no rhyme or reason as it pertains to their numbers. He could be a player underneath, but so could 6 other guys as well. It all falls on how you decide to configure that ticket. The chefs numbers are there, the mares numbers are speculative.


Sir Winston

DP = 4-8-14-0-0 (26) DI = 2.71 CD = 0.62

Mare Profile = 7-4-3-14-2 Speed = 11 Stamina = 16 Index = 1.00 Triads = 14-21-19

Mare CD = 0.00 Chef CD = 0.62 Combined CD = 0.31

Here’s another guy with good chef numbers, a nice point spread but a higher mare index. Intrepid Heart and Master Fencer are all 3 in the same boat, all with a slight deficiency in mare stamina. All three would benefit from a slower pace. Because this category is highly advantaged and all of them are holding a balanced chef set-up and a nice CD, it is almost becoming a flip of the coin because of how closely aligned their configurations are. It would not be surprising to see the 3 grouped together nearing the final turn. With Intrepid Heart holding Tapit (he gets an edge) and Master Fencer showing some grit in the Derby, he would be the disadvantaged one.


Owendale

DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.63

Mare Profile = 7-7-4-5-8 Speed = 14 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.00 Triads = 18-16-17

Mare CD = 0.00 Chef CD = 0.63 Combined CD = 0.32

The negative point spread is not a good sign for 12f. This is a very talented horse and he is holding a very nice chef configuration but his mares offer no stamina to sustain it for a mile and a half. He will not run this race in the same manner as he has shown in his previous races. Unfortunately for Owendale, the bulk of this field (also lacking in mare stamina) are at least holding more than he is.


3.10 and Over


Joevia

DP = 2-5-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 3-8-4-9-7 Speed = 11 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.67 Triads = 15-21-20

Mare CD = -0.29 Chef CD = 0.75 Combined CD = 0.08

The mare’s numbers are actually quite nice and filled with stamina but the chefs are too high in speed to balance it properly for this race. His preferred lead style of running shows that he is favoring that chef speed dominance which will water down any mare stamina inheritance. In the Wood Memorial, he gunned for that lead and packed it in even with a fair pace in the onset of the race. This guy gained a nice amount of stamina from his mares without a doubt and that negative 0.29 is one of the best on the board for the distance. His combined CD offers him a fair shake in this race but he has shown that he prefers his male inheritance too much to be confident that he will magically favor those mares for this particular race. Because his combined distance capability (10.9f) is greater than most on this field but his preferred style favors his chefs, (depending on how one configures his tickets) a fourth spot on a Superfecta may be in order. The combo against this field is better than most but the chef index is saying toss. Tough call for a 4th spot consideration with all of the Tapit colts wandering around.


Tacitus

DP = 6-10-11-1-0 (28) DI = 3.31 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 7-6-3-7-6 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.05 Triads = 16-16-16

Mare CD = 0.03 Chef CD = 0.75 Combined CD = 0.41

Everything about these numbers is screaming to walk away. The high 3.31 index, the even point spread and the triads is just so weak for the 12f. The huge difference between Tacitus and guys like Creator and Tapwrit is that 3.31 index. It is higher in speed inheritance which steals from the stamina. Just like with Intrepid Heart, only the handicapper can choose to bypass the optimum distance found here (under 10f) and go with the Tapit factor. The 3.31 index is against the Tapit factor historically and Bourbon War is the one who is holding the goods in that department. The class of this horse may need to be considered and because of the lack of mare stamina found in all of those above n this list, class may actually need to be considered. For the Belmont stakes, his 3.31 index will hinder him a great deal but the power of Tapit against the others may call for a few dollars in the super. His 3.31 index coupled with the Tapit Factor is giving him the position of holding the highest amount of inherited speed coupled with the stamina Tapit factor. Since Game Winner is no longer a part of this race, Tacitus’ stock rises a great deal based on the speed inheritance needed to win a race. The mare numbers are horrible for the Belmont Stakes, but Tapit colts don’t care about that. The extra .31 found in that chef index may be a major pitfall but it isn’t so high that it throws his chances out the window. The only thing these numbers say is 50-50 based solely on the Tapit factor and not the numbers. Your call now with Game Winner out.


Everfast

DP = 3-13-12-0-0 (28) DI = 3.67 CD = 0.68

Mare Profile = 7-3-2-9-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.90 Triads = 12-14-16

Mare CD = -0.08 Chef CD = .68 Combined = .26

There is something extremely intriguing about that .68 CD sitting next to his Chef’s 3.67 index. The other intriguing factor is the 3 found in the Brilliant spot of his chef’s profile. That set up offers Everfast a fantastic opportunity to sustain his speed much further than the average higher index colt. Unfortunately for this guy, the mares do not offer enough to offset the higher chef index and this would be imperative for the 12f. Because of the lower chef CD, he can sustain his speed further than average but not quite enough for the full 12f of this race. His optimum is 10.1f which is actually better than some on this field and he does hold a 4 point spread between his speed/stamina from his mares. There is a good case to be made that year after year, a strong speed guy does make his way onto that board. Between Tacitus and this guy, the numbers favor him but the Tapit factor favors Tacitus. After all is said and done, neither one is truly suited for this race but because of the lack of serious 12f stamina found in this field, his .68 CD does hold some merit for underneath consideration. It may be pushing it but depending on how one configures their super ticket, adding that CD into the picture may not be such a bad bet.


2.00 and Under:


Tax

DP = 3-5-23-1-0 (32) DI = 1.56 CD = 0.31

Mare Profile = 7-5-4-8-8 Speed = 12 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.82 Triads = 16-17-20

Mare CD = -0.16 Chef CD = .31 Combined CD = 0.00

Between the two guys in this category, (which, believe it or not, is the least advantaged spot of the entire field) this guy is actually holding more stamina than War of Will. It is important to realize that because of the fact that he did not fire on the sloppy track in the Derby actually makes him look even better for this particular race (again, if it isn’t raining!) The reason he did not run on that sloppy track may very well be because he is favoring all of that stamina found in his numbers. He is actually holding the 3rd best optimum distance (11f) on the field for this race. He is still below but much higher when pitted against the field that he is entered against. He is gaining his extra stamina from his chefs and his mares are offering even more but the 7 in the brilliant slot of his triads water it down just a bit. With a nice even pace Tax should be just fine after the final turn while most of the others are packing it in. He is a strong board hit contender even though this category does not have an advantage at all. He is worth the addition into a Superfecta play.


War of Will

DP = 5-8-17-4-0 (34) DI = 1.72 CD = 0.41

Mare Profile = 4-7-4-12-2 Speed = 11 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.95 Triads = 15-23-18

Mare CD = -0.03 Chef CD = .41 Combined CD = .17

With the subtraction of Game Winner and the addition of Joevia, this guy just had some luck thrown at him. His inheritance still gives him a wildly high disadvantage but his chef’s configuration, his low mare CD and the combined distance capability far outweighs most on this field. The fact that he is holding a .95 mare index which is dumping the necessary speed on him, speed that wins races. What War of Will has above the others is serious breeding, determination and class. Above all, he has a very nice speed/stamina balance and with the absence of Game Winner, this guy may just be the Drosslemeyer of the race. If Joevia does indeed enter this race, War of Will can use his stamina and forward position to his favor. This guy benefits the most from Game Winner’s disappearance and he will rival the best set of configurations on this field, Spinoff. Also, the St. Simon factor can not be ignored as far as incredible distance capability. With Game Winner out and Joevia in, War of Will's horseshoes just filled up with serious luck and serious potential.


Outlook – With the lack of Stamina found in most of the numbers above, class should be highly considered. Spinoff, War of Will, Tacitus and Bourbon War have higher points and more favor-ability. Two come from the highly advantaged mid-range group, one from the speed group and one from the stamina group. The Tapit factor highly considered as well. Tax or Master Fencer could break up that party on a clear fast track.

Follow

Riders Up! - Trumpet
00:00 / 00:00

The Dirty Horse Club is free to join and only subscribed members have access to all features of this site. We ask that you respect all members at all times and we do reserve the right to block or remove any language that is inappropriate. We also reserve the right to revoke password privileges as we deem fit in order to secure the content of the material.

 

No part of the content available through the Dirty Horse Club site may be copied, reproduced, translated or reduced to any electronic medium or machine-readable form, in whole or in part, without prior written consent of Lisa De. Any other reproduction in any form without the permission of Lisa De is prohibited. 

With proper consent from the author of any blog article or forum post at the Dirty Horse Club, you may link directly to our site and to any materials that you wish. 

©2018 by Dirty Horse Club. Proudly created with Wix.com