2017 - 2018 Road to the Derby


<Originally posted at HRF-Online Feb 2017 thru April 2018>


9/16/2017 IROQUOIS STAKES - 1 1/16 - CHURCHILL DOWNS BEYER: 76 THE TABULATOR DP = 6-3-15-0-0 (24) DI = 2.20 CD = 0.63 Mare Profile = 11-5-4-8-6 Speed = 16 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.29 Triads = 20-17-18 What stands out oddly here is that the mare profile and index are heavy on speed inheritance but the beyer number from this race is not jiving with it. He is one of the "average guys" from his chefs but his mares numbers give him that spectacular balance and beautiful set of Triads. As with most average indexed colts, the past performances will have to highly outweigh that 2.20 index in order to compete in the Derby. So far, a win on the Derby Trail helps that cause but the low beyer keeps him kinda on the sidelines. Must watch future performances to see if he can capitalize on that speed inheritance from his mares. That is the key for this guy.

9/30/2017 FRONTRUNNER - 1 1/16 - SANTA ANITA BEYER: 100 BOLT D'ORO DP = 7-11-12-2-0 (32) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.72 Mare Profile = 11-2-2-4-10 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.00 Triads = 15-8-16 He has posted one of the highest beyer performances to date. The 12 in the Classic slot from his chefs is the only thing giving him the distance he needed for that win. His mares numbers are split. His triads are nowhere near where they need to be for the Kentucky Derby. The high beyer number comes directly from the 7 in the brilliant chefs profile and from that huge 11 in the Mares profile. This guy appears to have a Breeders Cup Dirt Mile profile.

10/7/2017 CHAMPAGNE - 1 mi. - BELMONT Beyer: 90 FIRENZE FIRE DP = 4-7-7-0-0 (18) DI = 4.14 CD = 0.83 Mare Profile = 6-4-5-7-6 Speed = 10 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.88 Triads = 15-16-18 He is only one of two contenders on the 2018 Road so far with a High Speed Profile. This is the type that excels in the Kentucky Derby. If the field shakes out with a low number of Speed colts this year, he might have to be looked at as having an advantage but his races so far are very inconsistent. I have a feeling that his mares profile is to blame 6-4-5-7-6 is completely spread and fairly close to being even across each distance. This means that he does not have a true "Optimum Distance" from those mares and his chefs profile looks as if it will be watered down. I am wary with his numbers for the Kentucky Derby, however, without a great deal of Speed horses yet, he must still be considered at this early stage. His triads look very well placed against the 4.14 index of his chefs. He needs to show consistency going forward.

10-7-2017 BREEDERS FUTURITY - 1 1/16 - KEENELAND Beyer: 79 FREE DROP BILLY DP = 4-4-17-1-0 (26) DI = 1.74 CD = 0.42 Mare Profile = 9-5-2-10-5 Speed = 14 Stamina = 15 Index = 1.14 Triads = 16-17-17 Billy has a very good balance between his mares and his chefs as far as distribution of his speed and his stamina. It is opposite in the norm, gaining his stamina from his chefs and his speed from his mares. The dominance of that 17 in his Classic slot in his chefs profile is absolute and definitely justifies that 79 beyer performance. The speedy lead horses pounded each other in that race and Billy's stamina gave him the win in that race. What he did receive though is a very nice high Mare index, which balances him very nicely. Just by this one performance it seems that Billy is gravitating to his chefs stamina as opposed to his mares speed. This is evident with that 79 beyer. He truly needs to find a way to utilize his mare inheritance. It is his only hope if he is to do anything at Churchill. His numbers are nice, but so far his performances aren't coinciding with them. He has the speed, it just needs to come out of him for that 10f race. At this point, I see much better stamina contenders.

11-4-2017 BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE Beyer: 100 GOOD MAGIC DP = 6-6-10-0-0 (22) DI = 3.40 CD = 0.82 Mare Profile = 4-7-2-10-8 Speed = 11 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.61 Triads = 13-19-20 Perfection in balanced numbers for the Kentucky Derby. Just like Lookin at Lee from last year, (although at a much higher level) this guy has the speed to compete with any of the big speed demons that will inevitably be above him and he has the perfect balance to conquer the 10 furlongs because of the triad configurations he inherited from his mares. At this point, there is only one above him as far as killer dosage profiles in the Speed category - Audible. Inevitably there will be more. But as of right now, mid February, he is one of the top contenders to win the Kentucky Derby based on his inheritance. Rain or Shine. The 3.40 index is a direct hit and the 13-19-20 triads give him the distance. Top notch Kentucky Derby numbers.

11-25-2017 KENTUCKY JOCKEY - 1 1/16 - DEL MAR Beyer: 81 ENTICED DP = 7-8-9-2-0 (26) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.77 Mare Profile = 13-2-3-3-10 Speed = 15 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.19 Triads = 18-8-16 Great numbers for the road to get there, but sad to report that these numbers fall very short for the 10f in Kentucky. The chefs numbers are fine, bottom end of the speed spectrum and extremely beautiful set up in that chefs Profile. But he would have to rely heavily on those chefs with only additional speed coming from the mares. The mare profile is split and weighs to the left (speed). Not much came his way in terms of the Classic distance from the mares. If he left that portion of his inheritance in the barn, he would be okay but unfortunately it does not work that way. He enters the gate with the whole shebang, and that means his distance will get watered down. He is still fully loaded enough though for the remainder of the trail. The fact that he excelled at Del Mar gives hope that he may have it in him to run past that mare inheritance, but that is a flip of the coin.

12-2-2017 REMSEN STAKES - 1 1/8 - AQUEDUCT Beyer: 91 CATHOLIC BOY DP = 6-2-11-1-0 (20) DI = 2.08 CD = 0.65 Mare Profile = 7-5-5-5-10 Speed = 12 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.80 Triads = 17-15-20 Under that 2.11 mark is great, coupled with those triads is really great. His performances to date would make him the number one candidate to be able to compete in the Kentucky Derby being in that "average" category with his dosage index. There is always a strong possibility that one of them will hit the board, and this early in the game, all fingers should point to him. His Triads are very well configured for his chefs index. His mare index is a bit on the low side in contrast to that .65 index. But he hits his triads correctly with the 17 in the first spot and then it continues to a 20 on the stamina side. He has a nice amount of Reines in his chart which is exactly what he needs. Is he packing too much stamina from both sides for the Derby? Well, at this point, since there is not a ton of speed colts in the running yet, he will be pitted against the other stamina guys. Where his numbers fall, gives him MORE speed inheritance than most of those other stamina guys. This is a very strong positive So far, he is on the right path to be a contender in the Derby. And a serious one at that.

12-9-2017 LOS ALAMITOS - 1 1/16 - LOS ALAMITOS Beyer: 91 MCKINZIE DP = 4-0-6-0-0 (10) DI = 2.33 CD = 0.80 Mare Profile = 8-5-1-8-7 Speed = 13 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.96 Triads = 14-14-16 This guy has alot of buzz and he is performing very well . He has been flawless in all his races (The Solomini DQ aside) - But I must be honest and say that these numbers are absolutely abysmal for the Kentucky Derby. His chefs Profile on its own is actually not that bad and those types of configurations usually stand on their own. His optimum from the Chefs is the Classic distance, it is there in black and white. His mares profile is basically evenly distributed with speed and stamina with nothing happening in the Classic distance. Unfortunately, more speed inheritance would help him for the Derby. As with Catholic Boy, there is always the possibility of one of these "average dosage" guys to hit it big in the Derby. But unlike Catholic Boy who has some numbers to back his pursuit up, McKinzie will have to rely on himself. Here is a great example of a horse who is outrunning his numbers and he will absolutely have to do that in the Derby. As usual with a 2.33 guy, past performances will mean EVERYTHING because his numbers are not there.

12-17-2017 THE SPRINGBOARD - 1 mi. - REMINGTON Beyer: 88 GREYVITOS DP = 7-5-12-0-0 (24) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.79 Mare Profile = 6-6-5-6-8 Speed = 12 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.85 Triads = 17-17-19 This guy will perform much better at the Derby distance than he will at the 7-8-9f distance.He is on the lower end of the speed spectrum. The distance will not be a problem at all. The index from the mares (.85) just seems... blah. That is the only way to put it. It gives him the distance he needs but something is lacking in these numbers. The only thing I can make out here is that his chefs profile is just fine. His mares profile is okay. His triads are nice. Every aspect is...nice. Not spectacular but nice. Does nice win the Derby? Not usually but also not out of the realm. He will get better as the distances get longer and this may be where we see the best of him. He also looks like a real contender for the Belmont which generally does not make him a contender for the Derby. Again, the Derby demands some sort of speed inheritance. He did get some from the chefs (7) and some from the mares (6), but its not enough to jump up and down about with that 3.00 index. It's nice. It's fine. It's balanced. This is one to keep an eye on along the way and see if he can explode that "nice" inheritance and bring it up with some knockout performances.

1-6-2018 THE SHAM STAKES - 1 mi. - SANTA ANITA Beyer: 97 First Win Above. MCKINZIE DP = 4-0-6-0-0 (10) DI = 2.33 CD = 0.80 Mare Profile = 8-5-1-8-7 Speed = 13 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.96 Triads = 14-14-16

1-13-2018 LECOMTE - 1mi.70 - FAIRGROUNDS Beyer: 92 INSTILLED REGARD DP = 2-5-13-2-0 (22) DI = 1.59 CD = 0.32 Mare Profile = 6-4-7-6-8 Speed = 10 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.79 Triads = 17-17-21 Yes! Definite Yes! Stamina inheritance with a serious set of triads. Very very good. Triads are compiled from the best of the best (Reines) who are proven to pass through high quality blood, graded stakes winners. The more of these mares show up in a chart, the more high quality attributes the colt receives. This is imperative to win the Kentucky Derby. He has it. Being on one of the two extremes (high speed inheritance vs high stamina inheritance) is also a main ingredient to winning the Derby. He has it. Stamina Boy. The type who can keep on going past the Triple Crown Series, winning races like the Haskell, Travers, Breeders Classic and the Pegasus. He has the inheritance to be able to conquer all of them because he has the stamina to do it. Major Stamina contender for the Derby.

1-13-2018 JEROME STAKES - 1 mi. - AQUEDUCT Beyer: 85 First Win Above FIRENZE FIRE DP = 4-7-7-0-0 (18) DI = 4.14 CD = 0.83 Mare Profile = 6-4-5-7-6 Speed = 10 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.88 Triads = 15-16-18

1-15-2018 SMARTY JONES - 1 mi. - OAKLAWN Beyer: 99 MOURINHO DP = 3-4-7-0-0 (14) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.71 Mare Profile = 12-4-2-2-11 Speed = 16 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.15 Triads = 18-8-15 No chance whatsoever in the Kentucky Derby. Not enough stamina inheritance to make the 10f. Excellent miler.

2-3-2018 WITHERS - 1 1/8 - AQUEDUCT Beyer: 87 AVERY ISLAND DP = 4-5-11-0-0 (20) DI = 2.64 CD = 0.65 Mare Profile = 5-4-3-8-7 Speed = 9 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.68 Triads = 12-15-18 I would say at this early stage that he is the absolute top contender for the 12f Belmont Stakes. (That is, from USA - Ruggero from overseas has SERIOUS Belmont numbers) Its a shame because this is a very good horse. But this guy has Belmont Stakes numbers, not Kentucky Derby numbers. It is not a matter of not having the stamina to compete in the Derby, it is the matter of not having the speed needed for winning at 10f. He is too lopsided to stamina and has that average spread inheritance from his chefs. The low triads are not good for the Derby, but they are the perfect configuration (very low and steadily creep up) for the Belmont. He would be considered a longshot bet in the Derby if you wanna take a shot with one of those "average inheritance" horses. He is very talented and will no doubt perform well along the way, but the Derby is its own league and these numbers suffer there.

2-3-2018 THE HOLY BULL - 1 1/16 - GULFSTREAM Beyer: 99 AUDIBLE DP = 3-1-2-0-0 (6) DI = 5.00 CD = 1.17 Mare Profile = 7-7-8-8-3 Speed = 14 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.32 Triads = 22-23-19 YES! YES! YES! Derby Futures Bet? YES! Rain or shine? YES! Triads spectacular? YES! High speed demon? YES! As of right now, mid-February, this is the only speed contender with every single number in its rightful place. He has inherited the highest amount of speed of the group so far coupled with a strong potential of carrying that speed the 10f distance because of his mares contribution. Think Classic Empire with a better jockey. Basically the same configurations getting a better trip. This is the number one top contender for the 2018 Kentucky Derby based on his superb inheritance configurations. None compare at this point. These are the types of numbers that win the Kentucky Derby. But - here is the sting... He is an Into Mischief colt. They usually stand out on the trail and then lack in the Derby with the distance. They seem to want shorter distances even though their mares handed it to them. The differences with this guy are two-fold. One, he inherited much more speed than the normal Into Mischief son from the bottom of his chart through his chefs and also with his mares index coming from both the top and the bottom, which is giving him more speed than the average Into Mischief colt. Secondly, his Mares profile is not split in two and his chefs points are very very low which means he should rely on the females in his chart much more than the chefs and his immediate sire. This makes me believe he may be a different "type of Into Mischief" colt. And that goes to the positive especially with the huge lack of other speed demons at this point. He is the only one so far in the mix and he posted a serious beyer number. There is no other to push him off of his game yet. He is all alone. Also, with the tremendous possibility every year of rain and a sloppy mess of a track, he is unmatched in that regard as well. But depending on the caliber of speed horses who could possibly jump onto the Derby Train in upcoming events, his high Mare index could keep him from making it passed the final turn. This is the big dilemma that could stand in his way to winning the roses. Right now, he has nothing to worry about but come the week before the Derby, I think he may have some speed competition that he can not afford. In which case, he is still a strong player for a board hit. If comparing to another recent Into Mischief son, Practical Joke, Audible inherited much more speed than PJ. They both share incredible triads and high inheritance of speed from Mares. Practical Joke did well on the trail and his 5th place in the Derby was highly commendable. Now picture that same race without the two speed demons in there, Always Dreaming and Classic Empire. Practical Joke would have hit the board even with the high speed index from his mares. The triads are that fantastic. This is where Audible stands right now - there is no Always Dreaming or Classic Empire in the mix - yet.

2-3-2018 ROBERT LEWIS - 1 1/16 - SANTA ANITA Beyer: 86 LOMBO DP = 4-4-4-0-0 (12) DI = 5.00 CD = 1.00 Mare Profile = 7-2-5-4-9 Speed = 9 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.78 Triads = 14-11-18 High speed guy with a beautiful set of chef numbers. Very nice configuration there. His mare numbers are lacking but not horrible. At the very least they do lean to stamina (unlike Kanthaka which is opposite). The 11 in the Classic slot of his triads leads me to believe though that he will pedal backwards before the final turn at Churchill. He will excel on the Trail because he does not have much company in the gates as far as high chef speed inheritance coupled with a bit of stamina his mares. But at 10f, thats pushing it a bit too far. If that 11 in the middle of his triads were a bit higher, he might have had a shot. Reminds me of Outwork from 2016.

2-10-2018 SAM DAVIS - 1 1/16 - TAMPA BAY Beyer: 92 FLAMEAWAY DP = 8-1-6-1-0 (16) DI = 3.00 CD = 1.00 Mare Profile = 9-4-3-6-9 Speed = 13 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.93 Triads = 16-13-18 To win the derby, a colt needs to have a very high amount of inbred speed coupled with high amount of inbred stamina. Thats common sense of course. Most receive an overabundance on one side or the other. Too much speed and not enough stamina to carry it 10f or too much stamina and not enough jets to pass the speed. Then there are the ones who are balanced on both sides. An average amount of inherited speed, enough to get by and win some early races coupled with an average amount of inherited stamina to compete as the distances get longer. They get a gate in the Kentucky Derby. If speed takes over in the Derby, these types lack enough inherited speed to beat them. If stamina takes over in the race, they do not have enough inherited stamina to beat them. They hit the board either way. And thats it. They hit the board. With the configuration of his triads, this is the real predicament with this guy. His saving grace is that .93 higher index from the mares to go along with his 3x inherited speed from the chefs. He will do very well along the trail because of the inherited speed at those distances, but lacks the sufficient amount of Reines in his chart at the Classic distance (that 13 in the triads hurts). This might keep him below par with most of the others at 10f in the Derby.

2-17-2018 RISEN STAR - 1 1/16 - FAIRGROUNDS Beyer: 93 BRAVAZO - DP = 6-8-16-0-0 (30) DI = 2.75 CD = 0.67 Mare Profile = 9-3-3-8-5 Speed = 12 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.14 Triads = 15-14-16 Another guy with an index that stands in the center and triads that are mediocre. What he does have though is a very high Mare's speed index and the chefs are dominant in the Classic distance. He also has a fairly high number of points - 30. This is the type that could be reliable in that he may just end up being on that lower end of the speed spectrum (his 2.75 is low but at the very least, somewhat closer to the 3.00 mark) and depending who else boards this train, he could have a little something going for him because of that mare index. Other than that, the triads kill it.

2-17-2018 EL CAMINO - 1 1/8 - GOLDEN GATE Beyer: 86 PAVED - DP = 2-4-10-0-0 (16) DI = 2.20 CD = 0.50 Mare Profile = 8-4-3-4-11 Speed = 12 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.79 Triads = 15-11-18 Her chefs numbers are good. Her mares numbers are boring. Somewhat split. Just from the numbers, not sure this one inherited enough speed to compete in the Derby. The 8 in the Brilliant slot is good but the mare index is kinda low matched up against the Chefs. She may have too much stamina and not enough speed. One more performance to see where she stands. Side note: Just realized this is a filly! I'm not good with filly dosage, so take that with a grain of salt.

2-19-2018 SOUTHWEST - 1 1/16 - OAKLAWN Beyer: 93 My Boy Jack - DP = 3-2-13-0-0 (18) DI = 1.77 CD = 0.44 Mare Profile = 13-3-3-4-7 Speed = 16 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.52 Triads = 19-10-14 This is nice. Another Stamina guy who is packing a beautiful amount of speed from his Mares. Looks like the stamina guys are really taking a stand this year. His chefs numbers are gorgeous and the fact that he inherited an overabundance of speed (13 in brilliant - 19 in first Triads) really looks nice. He's got alot of races under his belt and he looks like he will be even more comfortable the longer he goes. This is another very strong stamina contender.

2-25-2018 - MINE THAT BIRD STAKES - 1 1/16 - SUNLAND PARK - (NO POINTS) RERIDE – 2.50 DP = 2-5-6-1-0 (14) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.57 Mare Profile = 5-4-4-7-8 Speed = 9 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.67 Triads = 13-15-19 No points for this race but should be mentioned as prep for Sunland Derby. This little Candy Ride boy has that horrible 2.50 index but somehow has managed to win 4 out of his 5 races all under his optimum distance. The combo of a Candy Ride– Remit (Tapit) colt could be lethal. I like his numbers very much for the Belmont Stakes and he definitely rivals Avery Island in that regard. But with this little guy, winning these short races only suggest he has that hidden speed factor that is so prevalent with good Candy Ride Boys. The triads lean very strongly to stamina and that low Mare index under that low chef CD only make these wins that much more impressive. This one has that average index so abhorrent for the Derby, however, there is always that chance of the one breakout star in that group. The Chef CD 0.57 is depicting more stamina and that .67 low mare index only enhances his stamina. He wins short races. Just like a couple of his hot shot half brothers (Gun Runner/Shared Belief) from the recent past. Same style, same type. More speed inheritance than both from the bottom of his chart but still holding that strong amount of stamina. Right now, he sits with Catholic Boy and Avery Island in that regard but he has no points yet. I have no doubt that he will gather those points. This guy reminds me very very much of Tonalist (his cousin). I like him very much for an "average guy" going forward. He is outrunning his numbers.

3-3-2018 FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH - 1 1/16 - GULFSTREAM Beyer:96 PROMISES FULFILLED DP = 3-5-2-0-0 (10) DI = 9.00 CD = 1.10 Mare Profile = 8-3-2-6-8 Speed = 11 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.88 Triads = 13-11-16 Shackleford colt who added another dimension to the speed group. Would have thought that it would have been Gotta GO but he was no match for the speed on the lead of this guy. 9.00 index is 9 times more inherited male speed than stamina. That is alot. Great for the bias on the lead at Gulfstream but is he packing enough to keep going to 10f. His triads are stronger on the stamina end and he did gain a bit more stamina than speed from his mares. My gut is telling me that if this race were run at Churchill, he would not be mentioned today. Sometimes a colt is built for the track and you have to look deeper to see what was lurking behind him. Good Magic, Strike Power and Machismo would have told a different story at Churchill. And even though Machismo came in 4th, his performance told a huge story yesterday. My gut is also telling me that 10f with 20 horses at Churchill is way past what Promises's mares gave him. But, send him to Parx for their Derby at 1 1/8th and he looks like a real winner. Unfortunately, I think the triads fall short for Kentucky.

3-10-2018 GOTHAM - 1 mi. - AQUEDUCT Beyer: 95 ENTICED - DP = 7-8-9-2-0 (26) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.77 Mare Profile = 13-2-3-3-10 Speed = 15 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.19 Triads = 18-8-16 First win above but I will add a few things here. This particular race, The Gotham, is a bit over-rated in terms of Derby Preps. Many good horses have won this race along the way - J Boys Echo, Shagaf, El Kabeir, Samraat, Vyjack, Hansen, etc. And most all of those guys sat in the limelight right afterwards for quite a long time. A particular "type" wins the Gotham on Aqueduct's track, basically a certain set-up that thrives in that race. That set-up is not the set-up that wins at 10f at Churchill. Every Derby prep race will have its own advantages and sometimes those advantages are quite the opposite for The Derby. What wins at 1 mile at Aqueduct generally does not win at 10f at Churchill Downs. There is something to be said though about the possibility of a horse that just has that will to win and the need to have his nose out front at the conclusion of his races. The other huge grey area concerning Enticed is to what extent does Medaglio D'Oro offer those hidden spectacular qualities that helps the colt run past his numbers. This guys mares numbers are awful for lack of a better word, however, could it be possible that Enticed can actually leave that portion in the barn being the son of a Medaglio D'Oro? It wouldn't be the first time.

3-10-2018 TAMPA BAY - 1 1/16 - TAMPA BAY Beyer: 94 QUIP DP = 7-2-6-0-1 (16) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.88 Mare Profile = 9-6-1-9-7 Speed = 15 Stamina = 16 Index = 1.04 Triads = 16-16-17 A few things here. First, the guy above him (Enticed) beat the daylights out him at Churchill going 1 1/16th. Says alot about Enticed. Second, his mares set-up is much prettier than Enticed for the 10f distance at the same track. Here we have another guy with a very strong possibility of making some noise in the Belmont Stakes. Recent winners of this prep who have also taken a gate at Belmont have done well there. This striking horse has something going on with that 1.04 mare index for Kentucky but I am not sure yet if it is enough. He is on the border. It will highly depend on who he is ultimately grouped with in that exact 3.00 group. As of right now, he has Enticed who he was no match for at that distance - Flameaway who might have beat him yesterday had he not had a bad start and also steadying - Greyvitos who is very closely aligned with Quip as far as inheritance and type - And Bolt D'Oro which is another thing altogether. (See next race)

3-10-2018 SAN FELIPE - 1 1/16 - SANTA ANITA Beyer: 101 (McKinzie DQ) BOLT D'ORO DP = 7-11-12-2-0 (32) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.72 Mare Profile = 11-2-2-4-10 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.00 Triads = 15-8-16 I spent alot of time looking this guy over last night so I will add to what I said above. First and foremost, I stand by those thoughts on his horrible mare numbers when it comes to the Derby. The Medaglia D'Oro phenomenon must be factored in at this point. Just like Enticed, who has that horrible set of mare numbers as well, seem to be disregarding that side of their inheritance which is not something you see everyday. The only thing that ties them together with their numbers vs their performances is Medaglia. Could this sire be so dominant as to take over the mare inheritance? It almost seems that could be a strong possibility. The other thing that is in Bolt's favor is that high 32 points he received from his chefs. At this point, he is packing the most inherited blood from the best sires across the board. Could that chefs profile take over completely with his immediate sire? That is the big question and so far he seems to be outrunning his mare inheritance which would be imperative to win the Derby. His chefs profile is loaded and gorgeous, his mares profile is not. This is the type that will make your head spin come the day before the Derby. He must still be considered as a contender based on his performances vs his numbers. The only other thing besides the Medaglia factor is that Mare profile 11-2-2-4-10. It is split and usually I would say that the colt needs to pick a side instead of hovering in the middle (which they usually do). It could be that Bolt did pick a side already and he has chosen to side with that 10 in the Professional category. If that is true, look out Audible and Good Magic. You have a 3.00 loaded hotshot that won't care how much inherited speed you both have. Bolt will be coming, fully loaded. If this truly is Bolt's path, he has it all. ---- Must also mention McKinzie regardless of DQ, he was right there with Bolt dominating the field which included some serious speed. McKinzie is truly performing beyond that 2.33 index and he is definitely one horse in that average category that is far outrunning his numbers. Shades of Frosted come Derby Day.

3-17-2018 REBEL STAKES Oaklawn Park 1 1/16 Beyer: 97 MAGNUM MOON DP = 8-9-15-0-0 (32) DI = 3.27 CD = 0.78 Mare Profile = 5-4-3-7-9 Speed = 9 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.61 Triads = 12-14-19 Now we have another Speed Contender on board. Very closely in line with Good Magic. High Classic Dominance from Chefs with a nice speed index. Good CD. Mares slammed him with stamina. And the loaded 32 points is the cherry on top. Great for the Derby. (And possibly the Belmont as well because of that mare index) This guy has the numbers for the sun and the rain at 10f at Churchill. He also has the right triads and mare index to compete at Belmont which makes him the only contender on the field so far to possibly take the entire Triple Crown. This guy is an extremely serious contender. The only thing he will need to overcome in the Derby is his triad configuration. That first number hurts but the 8 and 9 in his chefs profile may make up for the speed he lacks from the mares. His performance in this prep race looks like he is using that chef speed to the fullest. Most important from the mares is the crazy amount of stamina he inherited. That will help him handle the 3 races much easier than most of the rest of these guys.

3-17-2018 JEFF RUBY STAKES Turfway Park 1 1/8 Beyer: 83 BLENDED CITIZEN DP = 5-7-12-0-0 (24) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.71 Mare Profile = 6-6-5-7-7 Speed = 12 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.88 Triads = 17-18-19 And yet another Exact 3.00 guy. I believe we are up to 5 now (not including Justify or Mourinho) I will reserve a huge assessment here - But I will note that his mare triads are configured much better than the rest of them and his chefs gave him more stamina to go with that 3.00 index.

3-24-2018 LOUISIANA - 1 1/8 - FAIRGROUNDS - Beyer - 95 NOBLE INDY DP = 4-5-9-0-0 (18) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.72 Mare Profile = 10-4-3-4-6 Speed = 14 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.42 Triads = 17-11-13 Three more winners with exact 3.00 chef indexes in the past 3 preps. Its all filled up. But there is no comparison between the mares with the three of them. This guy inherited too much speed to compete at 10f along side all of the stamina that will be in the gate with him. He looks like he will be a player all the way through up until about the top of the stretch. His triads are backwards for 10f. Blended Citizen has great numbers, but he appears slow. And then there is Runaway Ghost from Sunland who also won going a bit slow too:

3-25-2018 SUNLAND - 1 1/8 - SUNLAND - Beyer - 85 RUNAWAY GHOST DP = 4-6-10-0-0 (20) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.70 Mare Profile = 5-8-3-11-4 Speed = 13 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.95 Triads = 16-22-18 Another 3.00 guy, with a huge difference. Really spectacular Mare numbers to go along with it. Excellent set-up. Lower numbers in the early speed categories hurt a little. Even though the chef numbers are a bit different, this guy reminds me very much of Hence from last year. Really nice set up with the numbers but the performances, although good, are a bit off. He must up his game on the speed side to compete alongside some of the others, but it doesn't appear that his inheritance handed him too much of that. He has the 10f just fine, it is now a matter of being as fast as the others who also have the 10f. Great numbers, but is he up to par speed-wise with some of those other 3.00 guys? Doesn't appear so but those numbers are really nice. The irony of this... In this 3.00 category we have a few superstars that appear to be real threats. Those superstars have horrendous mare numbers. The few who aren't getting (and will not get) much attention in this category are Runaway Ghost, Blended Citizen and Quip. And those 3 guys have much better mare inheritance for Churchill day. The bigger this 3.00 category gets with each passing prep, the harder it will be to distinguish any type of advantage. What wins at Churchill for the Derby leans to Quip, Blended and Runaway Ghost but the performances to date lean towards Bolt, Enticed and Flameaway. This 3.00 category is out of control this year.

3-31-2018 UAE DERBY - 1 3/16th (Track Record) Mendelssohn - DP = 5-0-8-1-0 (14) DI = 1.80 CD = 0.64 Mare Profile = 7-6-4-8-5 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.09 Triads = 17-18-17 Writing this 10 minutes after seeing his performance in this race and will try to just concentrate on the numbers as it pertains to the Kentucky Derby without the wow factor. That was so spectacular so it will be difficult. The #1 thing that stands out is that DP, the Profile. 5-0-8-1-0. This is the type of configuration the totally stands on its own. I referred to this in the first analysis from his Patton win but must be addressed again. When there are zeros positioned within the profile, this is a sign that the inheritance from the chefs will stand exactly as shown with no wondering if it gets watered down. It is concrete. The low points just add complete confidence in what is shown there is exact. Mendelssohn gained perfect pure speed with the ability to carry that speed @ approx 11.3f from his chefs alone. Most times all horses need the mares numbers to back-up their inheritance. In this guys case, the mares contribution is icing on the cake and that icing is spectacular for a stamina horse. Evenly spread across and that shot of speed from the mares to go along with the high stamina from the chefs is killer. His ability to tackle different surfaces shows that he is utilizing the high quality styles and preferences from across the board of his chefs and his reines. For the Derby, on a clean clear day, speed dominates the superfecta and a stamina guy will find himself within that top 4 as a rule in the history of this race. When the stamina participants are finally grouped together, Mendelssohn will surely stand out as the top pick within that group. If it rains, as a general rule, stamina will suffer. However, since this guy has tackled a variety of surfaces with complete dominance, there is that possibility that the slop will not have a negative impact on him. This guy is the only stamina horse that should still be considered if it rains come Derby Day based on his ability to tackle it all. Major contender for not only the Derby, but the rest of the Triple Crown, the Breeders Classic and the Pegasus. These "types" of thoroughbreds, high stamina inheritance who carry their speed as long as they want to run are not a dime a dozen. These are rare gems that represent top quality that never ends.

First analysis from 3-2-2018 PATTON - 1 mi. SYNTH - IRELAND MENDELSSOHN DP = 5-0-8-1-0 (14) DI = 1.80 CD = 0.64 Mare Profile = 7-6-4-8-5 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.09 Triads = 17-18-17 Can't go wrong with Aiden O'Brien. He knows how to get the best out of his horses. So far this guy has won a huge race against a field of 14 on Breeders Weekend on turf. He wins another huge race after a bit of a layoff on Synthetic. He's got that Animal Kingdom/Mubtaahij/Toast of New York thing going on. That chefs Profile: 5-0-8-1-0 is gorgeous. That is exactly the type of stamina profile that stands on its own. No questions, no messing around, no trying to dissect and read between the lines. His important sires had speed AND they had the classic distance AND that is exactly what they passed down. He also has Ribot and Flower Bowl at the bottom of his chart which is always an added bonus. So when a colt has a low CD (0.64) it is always nice to see a shot of real speed from the mares. He received it. 17 beautiful points in that first slot of the triads coupled with a mare index above 1.00. What is also very nice is that the triads are spread evenly so that speed (nor that stamina) gets watered down. It is there. Can he tackle all surfaces? We shall see. Can he beat Saxon Warrior in Dubai? We shall see. If Le Vent Se Leve shows up in Dubai can he beat him? I highly doubt that, however, I highly doubt any of them could beat Le Vent. But that guy probably won't be participating so there is always that. Mendelssohn has a spectacular stamina dosage set up, he can travel and he is winning on different surfaces. He just may be a monster. Stamina is dominating this years road to the Derby. And the only thing that truly makes this year so exciting is handicapping the Kentucky Derby with the thought of the possibility of rain. Can you imagine being able to cross off 3/4's of the field without hesitation! I don't believe we have ever had the pleasure of that! But if it doesn't rain, we have yet another guy who can not be crossed off. If its a sunny day in Kentucky on the first Saturday in May, this is gonna be excruciating to handicap.


4-7-2018 - Santa Anita Derby - 1 1/8 - Santa Anita

JUSTIFY - DP = 5-6-8-1-0 (20) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 9-4-4-7-8   Speed = 13   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.96   Triads = 17-15-19

Yes, he looks good. And his numbers are good too. He is in that exact 3.00 category with Flameaway, Bolt, Quip and Enticed. The difference with him and his immediate peers is his mare triad numbers couple with his Chef CD:

Enticed: Triads = 18-8-16 Chefs CD = .77 (Even) Bolt: Triads = 15-8-16 Chefs CD = .72 (more Stamina) Flameaway: Triads = 16-13-18 Chefs CD = 1.00 (more speed) Quip: Triads = 16-16-17 Chefs CD = .88 (Even) Justify: Triads = 17-15-19 Chefs CD = .75 (More Stamina)

Enticed and Bolt are really split with their triads and USUALLY not good for the Derby. But, as noted before, maybe the Medaglia factor will be a boost there. With triads and the Derby, every single point matters. The top configuration of course would be 20's across all slots. Very rare but very lethal for the Derby. Every point that it drops away from 20 in EACH SLOT really affects most all horses who are entered in that particular race. The first number depicts speed inherited from 4f to about 7.5f. Of course speed is a main ingredient to winning any race. High inheritance here above 16 points is extremely important because being on the lowest end of the speed spectrum, these 3.00 guys need to get a big shot of speed in order to compete with those big guys above them. (Example Audible with a chef index of 5.00 and triads 22-23-19.) Audible gained 5x more speed than stamina whereas these 5 guys gained 3x. Audible gained a huge 22 points worth of EXTRA speed from his mares, whereas these 5 guys only range between 15 to 18. May not seem like a huge difference in points, but it is a huge difference on the track. Justify has 17 points in that spot which is better than norm. 15 and 16 is fairly normal, 17-18 is good. 19-20+ is fantastic.

Moving on to the Classic distance - Enticed and Bolt have absolutely horrible numbers here. Both have only 8 points. This shows the split in all its glory between the mare speed and the mare stamina. This may not have as great as an effect on Bolt mainly because he gained a very large amount of points in his profile from his chefs. 7-11-12-2-0 (32). When a Derby colt is loaded from their chefs, sometimes the mares inheritance does not play as big of a factor with a horse bred like this. With Justify his 15 is a slight dip which is something that you don't want to see, but it is only 2 points so its not horrible. Again, comparing to Audible with a whopping 23 in his Classic spot is shining a large light on him with that 5.00 index.

Moving to the Stamina slot - It is important that the 3.00 colt gains extra speed to compete with the advantaged guys above them but it is even more important to have gained enough stamina to carry that speed the 10f distance. A 20 in the last slot is the goal. None of the 3.00 guys hit that mark, however, Justify has a 19. He has the stamina to run 10f because of two things, that 19 in his last slot coupled with his .75 CD from his chefs. The lower the CD with a 3.00 indexed colt the better for stamina. Under .75 is the key there IF THE TRIADS ARE LACKING A BIT. If the triads hit 20's, then the mares inheritance is ample enough for that 10f. If the triads are are significantly under the 20 mark then they need to be about .75 or under. Bolt and Justify hit that mark BUT Justify hits the mark much better across the board with his mares.

Justify's profile from his chefs is gorgeous. Perfectly configured progression across the 5 distances. He gained a nice shot of speed from his mares (9) but the most important numbers, the last 2 numbers in his mares profile are perfect. The profile leans to stamina. It is not split. He has the distance and he has the speed. These are good numbers for a 3.00 guy. He gained some extra needed speed to compete with the big guys above him (and fortunate for him there aren't alot) AND he gained enough stamina from the mares and with that lower CD. I believe that the .75 index is a huge advantage with his triads set up against the other 3.00 guys. Since there are really only 2 horses at this point who have inherited SERIOUS speed and really beautiful dosage set-ups, one or two of these 3.00 guys will have to be part of that top category mix because of a lack of contenders there. Out of the 5, it is Justify who seems to have the best set up as far as inheritance. Having the will to run past their numbers is an entirely different thing though. In that regard, Bolt D'Oro seems to be the player there. His mare numbers are so stinkin bad but they have not overtaken his loaded 32 points from his chefs - and I don't think they will. When the preps are over and if Justify has a gate, the handicapping of the match-up between Bolt and Justify will be at the top of the list. A 3.00 guy hits the board in the Derby more often than not, especially when there is a lack of speed horses entered.


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