2016 Derby Analysis

<Originally posted at HRF-Online April 2016>


OUTWORK – 11.00 Chefs Profile: 2-3-1-0-0/ Points: 6 / Index: 11.00 / CD: 1.17 Reines: 5-3-7-12-3/ Triads: 15-22-22 Best Projected Adj 10f – (126.79) Best PF – (-32) Last Speed – 96 Sloppy Track – His last race at AQU – 1st by a head. Speed - 96

He will need to rely heavily on his prominent mares who consistently passed down some serious stamina through their bloodlines. The high amount of sprinter Chefs in his chart may be too much to see this happen. He is in the top 4 as far as mare stamina inheritance within this group. His low points from the chefs may allow other sires in his chart to take a stand and he may actually have a bit more in the tank than his 11.00 index suggests.

Comparisons: DERBY – Strike The Gold PREAKNESS – Master Derby BELMONT - None

NYQUIST – 7.00 Chefs Profile: 1-2-1-0-0/ Points: 4 / Index: 7.00 / CD: 1.00 Reines: 7-1-7-7-6 / Triads: 15-15-20 Best Projected adj 10f – (122.58) Best PF – (-41) Last Speed – 97 Sloppy Track – Never.

Points and Index from the Chefs would cause one to look the other way for the Triple Crown races. Not the case here. The only chefs in consideration are Pleasant Colony (Intermediate) and Mr. Prospector (Brilliant and Classic) which leads his index to raise so high. Love low points because other prominent figures come into play and his main contributors do not get watered down. Standout line from the bottom of his chart is Flower Bowl and Ribot. Top of the heap in that line producing consistent top performers in the Derby. Five star stamina, quality, speed and class. Hard to beat this guy even on an off track. Needs to be in top form and not let his speed get away from him. He has the stamina for the Derby. Top contender.

Comparisons: DERBY - Strike The Gold, Real Quiet, Charismatic, Mine That Bird PREAKNESS – Damascus, Aloma's Ruler, Snow Chief, Louis Quatorze, Real Quiet, Charismatic BELMONT - Damascus SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS – 4.20 Chefs Profile: 9-7-10-0-0 / Points: 26 / Index: 4.20 / CD: .96 Reines: 9-2-3-6-8 / Triads: 14-11-17 Best Projected adj 10f –(122.20) Best PF – (-52) Last Speed - 99 Sloppy Track –at RP, came in 2nd by a nose. Speed - 86

Pharoah did it across the board and Thunder Gulch had a huge shot at it too. Differnce between this guy and Pharoah was that Pharoah had a very sparse profile, low points, unlike SBN. His mares did pass down much more stamina than speed which is imperative here. He does have Ribot, however, he does not have Flower Bowl. Also, Ribot appears on the top of his chart where the line going through the mares is much more substantial. The 11 in his Classic Triads from the Mares is very low but it jumps to 17 in longest distances. His last race he was coming on strong and would have passed the eventual winner, Creator, if given the extra 1/8. This is one to look into.

Comparisons: DERBY - Thunder Gulch, Giacomo PREAKNESS - Greek Money, Prairie Bayou, Curlin BELMONT - Thunder Gulch, Commendable, Sarava DANZING CANDY – 3.80 Chefs Profile: 4-4-3-1-0 / Points: 12 / Index: 3.80 / CD: .96 Reines: 2-8-3-10-7 / Triads: 14-11-17 Best Projected adj10f – (127.80) Last PF – (+9) Last Speed – 87 Sloppy Track – His last race at SA going 1 1/8th. Came in 4th. Speed - 87

He has what is needed to get the 10f by a hair. Not producing the speed numbers that his index is saying he should. Last race is showing the worst projected time at Churchill.

Comparisons: DERBY – Spectacular Bid, Alysheba PREAKNESS – Spectacular Bid, Alysheba BELMONT - None

CHERRY WINE – 3.80 Chefs Profile: 7-9-6-2-0 / Points: 24 / Index: 3.80 / CD: .80 Reines: 5-6-5-7-5 / Triads: 16-18-17 Best Projected adj10f – (123.03) Last PF (-25) Last Speed – 92 Sloppy Track – At CD. 1-1/16th. Came in First by 9+ lengths. Speed - 89

He has the same index as Danzing Candy and he has inherited a bit more stamina from his chefs, which also means, that he inherited less speed. It is his chefs profile that is lacking and this causes his numbers to not compare to any previous winners. The speed/stamina spread is even which is also a slight detriment.

Comparisons: DERBY – None PREAKNES – None BELMONT - NONE

SHAGAF – 3.80 Chefs Profile: 4-10-10-0-0 / Points: 24 / Index: 3.80 / CD: .75 Reines: 2-4-4-6-10 / Triads: 10-14-20 Best Projected adj. 10f – (127.02) Last PF – (-16) Last Speed – 92 Sloppy Track – His last at AQU. Came in 5th. Speed - 92

Fantastic numbers across the board. High Speed inheritance from the chefs, coupled with serious stamina inheritance from the mares sets him apart from others within this group. The .75 index from his chefs is spectacular next to that 3.80 index. That being said, He does not seem to be running to those numbers. He will have track bias on his side but he will need a miracle to compete with the other Early pressers, Mohaymen - Nyquist - Destin.

Comparisons: DERBY – Spectacular Bid, Alysheba, Venetian Way PREAKNESS - Spectacular Bid, Candy Spots, Alysheba, Shackleford BELMONT – None TROJAN NATION – 3.44 Chefs Profile: 7-4-9-0-0 / Points: 20 / Index: 3.44 / CD: .90 Reines: 4-7-3-11-6 / Triads: 14-21-20 Best Projected adj10f – (126.01) Last PF – (-32) Last Speed – 96 Sloppy Track – His last at AQU. Came in 2nd by a head. Speed - 96

Trojan Nation and Exaggerator share a similar inheritance. Exaggerator gained more stamina from his Chefs, but Trojan Nation counteracts that with more stamina from the mares. It comes down to past performances between these two. Both have the goods to shine.

Comparisons: DERBY - War Emblem, Smarty Jones, California Chrome PREAKNESS - War Emblem, Smarty Jones, California Chrome, Lookin At Lucky BELMONT - Summing

EXAGGERATOR – 3.40 Chefs Profile: 6-6-10-0-0 / Points: 22 / Index: 3.40 / CD: .82 Reines: 5-4-2-9-8 / Triads: 11-15-19 Best Projected adj10f – (123.48) Last PF – (-44) Highest Speed – 102 Sloppy track – Last race, won easily. No questions here.

Exaggerator has the highest and most consistent speed figures out of the group. He has one the better historical dosage pattern on the field, especially recent history. It is imperative for him to rely on that 19 in his triads for the distance. Sometimes speed on a speedy track can actually hurt a great colt in the Derby, this is why his mares profile, particularly in the solid and professional categories is so important. That profile leans HEAVILY to stamina and when you have a very speedy horse, nothing else comes into play but that. I believe he has it to use. Of course, there is no secret that Exaggerator would be heavily favored in the mud.

Comparisons: DERBY - War Emblem, Smarty Jones, California Chrome PREAKNESS - War Emblem, Smarty Jones, California Chrome, Lookin At Lucky BELMONT - Summing

FELLOWSHIP – 3.00 Chefs Profile: 8-6-14-0-0 / Points: 28 / Index: 3.00 / CD: .79 Reines: 7-5-3-11-7 / Triads: 15-19-21 Best Projected adj10f – (123.24) Last PF – (-24) Last Speed – 92 Sloppy Track – GP – 7f. Came in 7th. Speed – 80

Very even with Tom's Ready as far as inheritance. Gained a bit more in the speed department from the Chefs and he gained a bit more stamina from his Mares. But basically fall fairly close. Stamina is fantastic and it would seem by his numbers and past winners that he may like Belmont a bit more.

Comparisons: DERBY – Lil E. Tee, Supersaver PREAKNESS – Summer Squall BELMONT – Caveat, Victory Gallop, Jazil, Rags to Riches

TOM’S READY – 3.00 Chefs Profile: 5-7-12-0-0 / Points: 24 / Index: 3.00 / CD: .71 Reines: 6-4-6-7-7 / Triads: 16-17-20 Best Projected adj10f – (122.86) Last PF – (-11) Last Speed – 99 Sloppy Track – CD – Came in 8th. Speed - 81

It does seem fit that a Dallas Stewart entry would be hoarding some great stamina along with a nice amount of speed from his chefs. He's had 12 starts already and has hit the board 7 times. 50% statistic. His dam sire, Broad Brush, had basically the same stats. 27 Starts, hit the board 14 times. That's also a 50% stat. One of Broad Brush's In the Money performances was in the 1986 Kentucky Derby. He also took Third in the Preakness. Look out... Dallas Stewart is coming with guns blazing! Tom's Ready could be a major spoiler to this years Superfecta.

DERBY – Lil E. Tee, Supersaver PREAKNESS – Summer Squall BELMONT – Caveat, Victory Gallop, Jazil, Rags to Riches

MATT KING COAL – 3.00 Chefs Profile: 4-6-10-0-0 / Points: 20 / Index: 3.00 / CD: .70 Reines: 12-5-2-2-8 / Triads: 19-9-12 Best Projected adj10f – (127.33) Last PF – (-22) Sloppy Track – AQU. 1-1/8th. Came in 4th.

There is absolutely nothing as far as stamina coming from the mares, so that is shot. There is no history on his side, so that is shot. For this field, his chefs are fairly average, so there goes that as well. He is an 8 to 8.5f horse. He inherited great early speed and has a bit of endurance. His best bet would be to train heavily for the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. He is going nowhere here.


MOHAYMEN – 3.00 Chefs Profile: 5-9-11-1-0 / Points: 26 / Index: 3.00 / CD: .69 Reines: 9-5-2-6-7 / Triads: 16-13-15 Last Projected adj10f (FLA Derby) – (124.23) Last PF – (-8) Prior Projected adj10f (FOY) – (122.28) PF – (-44) Last Speed (FLA Der) – 87 Prior Speed (FOY) - 102 Sloppy – Never.

Mohaymen is 95% who he is because of his Chefs. He has great speed up to 9.3f. He can sustain his speed to 10f with the slight help from the mares but it is very iffy. His profile leans to the right but he does have an apparent will to win which can not be overlooked. He needs the perfect post and he needs every bit of luck he can muster because his numbers are that tight. There is zero history on his side as far as configuration but what he does have is an undefeated record up until his clunker on his home turf. Read what you can out of that. Do you let him slide for that and consider an unblemished record, or do you take it for what it is? After all, he did win at Aqueduct going 1 1/8th, so it wasn't the distance that day. I would say, toss his last. No question here.

DERBY - None PREAKNESS - None BELMONT - None CREATOR – 3.00 Chefs Profile: 4-10-11-1-0 / Points: 26 / Index: 3.00 / CD: .65 Reines: 8-6-3-7-6 / Triads: 17-16-16 Last Projected adj10f – (121.47) Last PF – (-57) Last Speed – 100 Sloppy Track – His Maiden at Churchill. Came in 2nd. Speed - 91

Creator reminds me of Firing Line from last year. His Chefs profile is very nice, Mares are so-so. He is one of the hardest ones to read out of the entire field. His speed outweighs his stamina and he showed to have enough endurance going 1 1/8th to win his last race at OP. The extra 1/8th is iffy on paper, but he seems to have really liked that extra track going from the Rebel to the Arkansas. Will he like the jump going to Churchill. Again, its iffy.

DERBY - None PREAKNESS - None BELMONT –Danzig Connection LAOBAN – 3.00 Chefs Profile: 1-3-4-0-0 / Points: 8 / Index: 3.00 / CD: .63 Reines: 11-1-5-5-6 / Triads: 17-11-16 Last Projected adj10f – (124.21) Last PF – (-13) Last Speed – 88 Sloppy Track – Never

The high 11 in the Brilliant category from his Mares is killing any comparisons to past winners. The low 8 points from his Chefs is also a detriment, as other winners had much higher points (like Cupid). He is even, average and seems to be better suited at a shorter distance than the Derby. A mile is his optimum.

DERBY - None PREAKNESS - None BELMONT - None MY MAN SAM – 3.00 Chefs Profile: 2-8-10-0-0 / Points: 20 / Index: 3.00 / CD: .63 Reines: 7-5-4-6-7 / Triads: 16-15-17 Last Projected adj10f – (122.96) Last PF – (-25) Last Speed – 92 Sloppy Track – Never.

His profile lacks in enough Chefs and points to compare him with Tonalist and Coastal in the Belmont race. The configuration and distribution of those points is also too low in the Brilliant and Intermediate Categories. Probably a main reason why his 6f maiden was a disaster. He definitely needs more track to run his race. His adjusted time for Churchill rivals the hotshots in the field. He is on the cusp but history is not on his side.


CUPID – 3.00 Chefs Profile: 5-12-14-1-0/ Points: 32 / Index: 2.73 / CD: .60 Reines: 7-6-1-7-8 / Triads: 14-14-16 Last Projected adj10f – (124.84) Last PF – (-12) Sloppy Track – Never. Along the same lines as Creator. DERBY - None PREAKNESS - None BELMONT – Coastal, Tonalist OSCAR NOMINATED – 2.53 Chefs Profile: 10-5-13-2-0 / Points: 30 / Index: 2.53 / CD: .77 Reines: 7-7-3-8-6 / Triads: 17-18-17 Last Projected adj10f – (122.69) Last PF – (-11) (AWS) Last Speed – 91 Sloppy Track – Never.

He has the exact same profile, points, index and CD across the board with the Chefs as Elocutionist who won the Preakness in 1976. His high speed points from both his Chefs and his mares separate him in this 2.50 range. Turf and AWS Runner.

DERBY - None PREAKNESS – Elocutionist, Gate Dancer BELMONT – High Echelon, Lemon Drop Kid ZULU – 2.38 Chefs Profile: 3-7-11-0-1 / Points: 22 / Index: 2.38 / CD: .50 Last Projected adj10F – (128.29) Last PF – (+63)

Only words here… look to the Belmont Stakes, not the Kentucky Derby. Much better chance at success.

DERBY - None PREAKNESS – Hansel BELMONT - Bold Forbes, Seattle Slew, Hansel, Editors Note, Da'Tara, Palace Malice, Sherluck

WHITMORE – 2.38 Chefs Profile: 2-8-11-0-1 / Points: 22 / Index: 2.38 / CD: .45 Reines: 10-1-1-6-10 / Triads: 12-8-17 Last Projected adj10F- (122.29) Last PF – (46) Last Speed – 97 Sloppy Track – At DED. Going 1-1/16th. Came in 5th. Speed - 86.

Same as Zulu, however, Whitmore’s mares are giving him some extra speed to compete at Churchill. His numbers are not that bad at all but maybe not enough to make the board though. Better shot in Belmont.

DERBY - None PREAKNESS – Hansel BELMONT - Bold Forbes, Seattle Slew, Hansel, Editors Note, Da'Tara, Palace Malice, Sherluck

MAJESTO – 2.33 Chefs Profile: 3-1-6-0-0/ Points: 10 / Index: 2.33 / CD: .70 Reines: 11-4-3-8-4 / Triads: 18-15-15 Last Projected adj10F- (123.16) Last PF – (-28) Last Speed –93 Sloppy Track – Never

He can not and will not win the Derby. He is backwards for the Belmont and using Da'Tara as a comparison is stretching it. He has the greatest shot in the Preakness, and even that is iffy. Not this year.


LANI - 1.92 Chefs Profile: 7-9-18-3-1 / Points: 38 / Index: 1.92 / CD: .47 Reines: 9-5-1-6-9 / Triads: 15-12-16 Best Projected 10F- (124.51) (adj is N/A) Best PF – (-47ish) Sloppy Track – Two times. Both in JPN - 2nd at 1 1/8th AND 5TH AT 8F.

If this guy likes USA, his numbers work well across the board. Only thing lacking here is inheritance from the mares, but most of the winners in this category also lacked there as well. There were other winners who won past TC races in this category but they were overloaded in mare stamina, so I could not use them for comparisons. I believe that this guy is lucky to find himself in this position based on the injury to Blue Creek in his 2nd race. He certainly has the goods to shine if he has that special spark to win. Out of all of the entrants, Lani has the highest amount of past winners across all three of the Triple Crown Races. This configuration/index/CD produces the most, so he does have history on his side.

DERBY – Affirmed, Sunnys Halo, Swale, Barbaro, Assault, Kauai King PREAKNESS – Assault, Royal Orbit, Personality, Affirmed, Risen Star, Red Bullet BELMONT – Swale, Risen Star, Touch Gold, Empire Maker, Birdstone

MOR SPIRIT – 1.57 Chefs Profile: 4-0-14-0-0 / Points: 18 / Index: 1.57 / CD: .44 Reines: 2-8-5-11-4 / Triads: 15-24-20 Last Projected adj10f – (125.94) Last PF – (-19) Last Speed – 94 Sloppy Track – His last race at SA. 1-1/8th. Came in 2nd. Speed- 94.

He has the numbers, especially from his Chefs. He is 100% Classic distance and has the greatest opportunity to surpass what he has shown us so far. This guy needs to be looked at over and over and then finally kept if you play supers. He could make some noise at the finish line. His Mares Triads in the Stamina end are Very Very nice, where he lacks just a bit is in the speed end. It's that .44 CD that is affecting his speed. His adjusted time for 10f from his last race is slow against this field. I would not be surprised if he went all the way though in the Belmont even though this particular profile configuration has never produced a winner. There is just something in his way that is saying 12f is not out of his realm. He's a keeper. Just not sure for which race!!

DERBY - Animal Kingdom, Funny Cide, Count Turf PREAKNESS – Fabius, Rachel Alexandra BELMONT – None MO TOM – 1.55 Chefs Profile: 1-4-7-2-0 / Points: 14 / Index: 1.55 / CD: .29 Reines: 9-3-5-8-6 / Triads: 17-16-19 Last Projected adj10F- (122.81) Last PF – (-5) Last Speed – 98 Sloppy Track – At CD going 1-1/16th. Came in 3rd. Speed - 94

Mo Tom, Destin, Brody's Cause and Gun Runner have very similar inheritance. Out of the 4, it is Mo Tom who lacks a bit with his Index. Above 1.50 is the cut off for competing with the high stamina horses and jumping up into that average inheritance. Even history shows ZERO winners with his configuration. Best suited underneath if you feel like spending on a "just in case" horse.


DESTIN – 1.43 Chefs Profile: 3-2-23-0-0 / Points: 28 / Index: 1.43 / CD: .29 Reines: 8-5-4-7-5 / Triads: 17-16-16 Last Projected adj10F- (121.67) Last PF – (-40) Last Speed – 97 Sloppy Track – Never.

In with the pack of stamina horses, his .29 CD is what causes history to show a few winners in Kentucky. Between him and the two contenders below, its more about past performances than anything. He has high points, (Brody has more) and his Classic number is great. (Again, Brody has more there as well). Destin needs to be highly considered because out of the three powerhouse stamina horses, Destin has the best projected adjusted 10f time. With all of that speed, coupled with an optimum classic+ distance, he has everything. The long lay-off may be the only detrimental factor.

DERBY - Spend a Buck, Grindstone, Monarchos PREAKNESS - None BELMONT – Bet Twice BRODY’S CAUSE – 1.38 Chefs Profile: 6-1-30-1-0 / Points: 38 / Index: 1.38 / CD: .32 Reines: 4-6-4-7-8 / Triads: 14-17-19 Last Projected adj10f – (122.56) Last PF – (-32) Last Speed- 94 Sloppy Track – At KEENELAND going 1 1/16th. Came in 1st. Speed - 95.

Brody's Cause is 100% Classic Distance - 10,11,12f and he had the will to win going shorter. Excellent standout horse. If Derby pace is grueling, it is all about Brody's Cause, Gun Runner and Destin. Gun Runner has history on his side, Brody has the guts, Destin has the Speed. Tough call. With all of that stamina inheritance, Brody still gained enough in the speed dept from both sides to compete. There were many many more past winners in his configuration, however, they had very low points, Brody has a whopping 38, so I could not use them. His pedigree is over loaded in the Classic Distance and it would be surprising if he doesn't shine. This is his optimum, no doubt about that at all.

DERBY - Spend a Buck, Grindstone, Monarchos PREAKNESS - None BELMONT – Bet Twice

GUN RUNNER – 1.25 Chefs Profile: 1-2-14-1-0 / Points: 18 / Index: 1.25 / CD: .17 Reines: 1-5-5-8-7/ Triads: 11-18-20 Last Projected adj10F- (122.07) Last PF – (-29) Last Speed - 104 Sloppy Track – At CD going 1/16th. Came in 4th. Speed - 92.

Gun Runners configuration; Points Total, Index and CD are the cream of the crop this year in the stamina end. He has everything necessary to win this race. If he finds himself with a strong post position and he is lucky enough to find a safe clean trip, he goes head to head with the speed in this race...Nyquist and/or Exaggerator. Between Gun Runner and Brody's Cause on the highest end of the Stamina Spectrum, it is Gun Runner who has the clearest pedigree for 10f at Churchill. The greatest aspect of Gun Runner is that he inherited just a small tiny drop of sprinters blood and has shown his natural speed is not compromised. Worth the extra money to hold on to both of them (and Destin too).

DERBY – Needles, Carry Back, Canonero II, Pleasant Colony, Unbridled, Sea Hero, Silver Charm PREAKNESS - Canonero II, Bee Bee Bee, Codex, Pleasant Colony, Silver Charm BELMONT - Needles


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