UAE DERBY
 

The History of the Past 15 Years of the UAE Derby.

 

Colts with a chef index OVER 2.70 suffer in the UAE Derby. Quite the opposite of our preps and the Derby itself. As with most all Graded Stakes races both here and abroad, there is always at least one exception to the rule. Over the past 15 years, only ONE colt hit that Win spot in the UAE with an index over 2.70 - Daddy Long Legs (3.00) in 2012. All others were under 2.70 with most well below that. This translates to 5% of the time a horse with a 2.70 or over chef index has won the UAE Derby.

 

95% of the time, a chef index under 2.70 takes the trophy. With most well below that.

 

In addition, the mares side is equally telling. Speed total points from the mares do not exceed 14, with most well below that. Additionally, the triads are generally lacking in the first slot with dominance in the 3rd high stamina slot.

2021  Rebels Romance

Chef Index: 1.10

Mare Speed = 9  Stamina = 17

Triads:  11-13-19

Did not run in the Derby.

Stamina Driven from chefs. Major dominance of stamina from mares side with an 8 point spread.

2020 -  Did Not Run

2019 Plus Que Parfait

Chef Index: 2.47

Mare Speed = 6 Stamina = 15

Triads: 12-16-21

Finished 8th in the Derby.

The high amount of stamina came directly from the mares. 9 point spread between the speed/stamina balance and the triads lean all the way over to the stamina end. This guy had 10f in his back pocket but at Churchill Downs with these numbers, especially on a sloppy track, are no match for our speed guys.

 

2018 Mendelssohn

Chef Index: 1.80

Mare Speed = 13

Triads: 17-18-17

Finished 20th in the Derby.

The stamina came directly from his chefs. He had a perfectly even balance of speed and stamina from his mares. He did not lean one way or the other there, it was equally balanced. Excess speed (17 points in the first slot) probably was the reason for that magnificent track record finish. Mendelssohn being the only exception to the criteria as far as triads not leaning to the right. Configured even.

 

2017 Thunder Snow

Chef Index: .89

Mare Speed = 12

Triads: 15-24-19

Did Not Finish in the Derby. Bucked at the Mud.

Magnificent set-up and complete stand out with less than 1x the amount of inherited speed over stamina from his chefs. Equally impressive stamina inheritance from his mares.

 

2016 Lani

Chef Index: 2.50

Mare Speed = 14

Triads: 15-12-16

Finished 9th in the Derby

Stamina from Chefs, and even though the triads are lacking, they still lean right dominance. Horrible numbers for the Derby.

Outdid himself in the UAE Derby, as there were a few others competing who far outweighed these numbers. Still, he beat the speed guys and his index under 2.70.

 

2015 Mubtaahij

Chef Index: 1.00

Mare Speed = 12

Triads: 16-20-18

Finished 8th in the Derby.

Major chef inbred stamina with mares dominate in Classic distance.

 

2014 Toast of New York

Chef Index: 1.21

Mare Speed = 14

Triads: 18-26-19

Did not Run in The Derby

Major Stamina Top and Bottom

 

2013 Lines of Battle

Chef Index: 1.95

Mare Speed = 12

Triads: 13-25-19

Finished 7th in the Derby

Major Stamina Top and Bottom

 

2012 Daddy Long Legs

Chef Index: 3.00

Mare Speed = 14

Triads = 16-11-17

Did Not Finish in the Derby.

The Exception with that 3.00 Chef Index and Subpar Mare Triads. Of course he didnt finish. No clue how he pulled off the win in this race.

 

2011 Khawlah

Chef Index: 1.40

Speed = 11

Triads = 13-18-18

Did not Compete in the Derby.

Intense Stamina top and Bottom. Inbred speed very low.

 

2010 Musir

Chef Index: 1.40

Mare Speed = 14

Triads = 16-28-18

Did not compete in the Derby.

Major Stamina top and Bottom. The 28 points in the 10f to 12f range is overloaded and spectacular.

 

The following years were run at a shorter distance, (1800 meters as opposed to 1900) which do not correlate to today, however, the criteria and outcomes still remains the same. This reconfirms that the Meydan track caters to stamina and favors that stamina from either side with a chef index below 2.70. Note how the chef index does rise a bit from the lower under 2.00 spot here, mainly due to the shorter distance.

 

2009 Regal Ransom

Chef Index: 2.00

Mare Speed = 11

Triads = 14-19-21

Came in 8th in the Derby.

Stamina guy top and Bottom, this year was even run at a shorted distance and still the bias caters to high stamina that overtakes the necessary needed speed for the Derby.

 

2008 Honour Devil

Chef Index = 2.50

Mare Speed = 7

Triads: 10-15-17

Did not run in the Derby.

Serious mare stamina inheritance and lack of high speed from both the top and bottom.

 

2007 Asiatic Boy

Chef Index: 2.56

Speed = 12

Triads = 14-15-16

Did not run in the Derby.

Favored stamina inheritance, he had a CD of .50, lack of speed inheritance, lucky this edition was run shorter. Still, hits criteria and beats the speed on the field.

 

2006 Discreet Cat

Chef Index: 2.67

Speed: 12

Triads: 15-14-18

Stamina leaning to Mares. Same luck in running 1800 meters instead of 1900. Still hits criteria though.

 

2005 Blues and Royals

Chef Index: 1.00

Mare Speed = 12

Triads = 13-13-14

Did not Run in the Derby

All stamina from the Chefs.

 

The point here is that the winner of the UAE Derby will most likely have an index below 2.70. He will have mare speed points total under 14. He will have a greater chance of leaning to stamina in his triads. He will favor the stamina from one side or the other or both. He will not be a speed demon. He will not lean to speed on either top or bottom. He will find no advantage in the Kentucky Derby because of this lack of speed inheritance. Best to stay away from a super bet and concentrate on a Win ticket in this particular race. The superfecta does not comprise of only the advantaged. The superfecta bet in this race is a fools bet and it provides us with no advantage at all. The only advantage we have as gamblers is to consult the numbers and toss from consideration for that top spot any horse who leans to speed as opposed to stamina. If a speed horse wins this race, he might be considered the second coming of Secretariat! The nominations of this race are showing quite a few speed guys, so taking the time to consult Equineline to gather your numbers is definitely advised.

 

Also of major note, the players in the UAE Derby take back that advantage if they are entered into the Belmont Stakes. Obvious statement for obvious reasons. They love the distance!