A stallion who is listed as a Master of the Breed, better known as a Chef-de-Race, is one who has shown his ability to consistently pass along certain distance capabilities as shown in the Average Winning Distance of that particular sire’s offspring. Common sense would dictate that the closer this type of sire appears within the first four generations, the higher the probability of his tendency to be more influential.
Dr. Roman’s numbers system deals only with the chefs. This is one half of the puzzle. Understanding the make-up of both sides of this puzzle is imperative in order to make a more sound judgement on a horse’s distance capability. The first step in making this determination deals with a colt’s five digit profile. The entire exercise revolves around the cast of characters who sets the stage for each and every colt that you wager on. Whether or not you chose to consult these numbers along with your past performance sheets is strictly a matter of your own taste and style, but having extra ammunition on the battlefield boils down to just three words – Being More Informed.
With that in mind and starting with one half of the puzzle, the Chef Side, the compilation of the designated chefs within the first four generations begins the theme of the new colt. This is the starting point with which one begins to sculpt out the potential of a new runner based on what he is made of against what he is displaying in his early performances. The five digit chef’s profile hands you half of a set of “raw” ingredients from the most time-tested and prolific sires who reside in the colt’s chart.
The word “raw” was chosen purposefully in order to bring to your attention the fact that how I read numbers (and combine numbers) is NOT what Dr. Roman’s theories taught or depict. His incredible work stands on its own and without it none of this would be possible. For me, his work is the stepping stone which everything is built upon. That stepping stone begins with the five digit Chefs dosage profile which is a perfect and distinct snapshot of the MAIN ingredients that make up a new colt.
Dr. Roman’s theories, as taught and widely spread, begin and end with the chefs. They also stand uninterrupted and straight forward. As taught in his books and writings, they are read in a specific and certain way. I would urge all to read and digest every single word in order to get a better understanding of his magnificent theories, which will lead to a greater understanding of where my ideas and study evolved from. They are built from his work. They are the stepping stone and without his great contribution and the ongoing research conducted by Stephen Miller, it would be impossible to gauge the potential of any given colt when it comes to handicapping and cashing in on the efforts.
Simply stated, based on the history of the outcomes and order of finish of a vast amount of graded stakes races run throughout the decades (and at different distances), I have taken Dr. Roman’s magnificent theories and turned them up several notches in order to do one thing, and that is to cash winning wagers. In order to do so, it all begins with the chef’s 5 digit profile as handed to us by Dr. Roman himself. After that, it takes a carpet ride on an entirely different journey. The mare’s 5 digit profile is yet another set of ingredients that compliments the first and takes the theory to a separate stratosphere and AFFECTS the outcome of the distance potential of the new young horse.
In keeping true to the ideas of one of the greatest horse breeders of all time, Federico Tesio, who stated that a horse is made up of 60% from his sires and 40% from his mares.
Combining the thoughts of both Dr. Roman and Federico Tesio -
How can you go wrong?
The Five Digit Profile
The first four generations of elite sires are what we concentrate on in Dr. Roman’s Dosage System. The idea being that the closer the elite sire falls to the new colt, the more influence he will have. Common sense would agree with this idea. There are 232 listed chefs. Each one of the chefs will pass down certain optimum distance capability as depicted in the average winning distances of their previous offspring. Each of these chefs have been designated their title within that specific distance range. In some cases, the sire will have two specific distances and in those cases, their points will be split between the two.
If a sire falls within the first generation of the colts chart, he will be responsible for passing along 16 points to the said colt and these points will be shown in the corresponding category that the sire is responsible for. If the sire is responsible for 2 categories, those 16 points will be split and 8 points will be designated to each. A first generation chef is very rare.
The designation of points is as follows:
First Generation = 16 points
Second Generation = 8 points
Third Generation = 4 points
Fourth Generation = 2 points
The categories depicted in the order placement within the colts profile is as follows:
BRILLIANT – INTERMEDIATE – CLASSIC – SOLID – PROFESSIONAL
Brilliant – approx. 4f to 6f
Intermediate – approx. 7f to 9f
Classic – approx. 10f to 12f
Solid – approx. 13f to 15f
Professional – approx. 16f+
The above categories depict the Average Winning Distances of the chef’s previous offspring, documented as being the most prolific and consistent range of distance success. If one of the chefs falls within the 3rd generation and he consistently passed down winning attributes in the Classic distance, he will contribute 4 points to the new colt’s third slot in his profile. If he falls in the fourth generation on that chart, he will contribute only 2 points to that third slot.
Let’s look at this new shooter Anneau D’or. First we will look at where the numbers come from and why they are arranged the way they stand for the chefs. The outcome will depict a certain optimum distance as passed down from these chefs. This alone will give you the exact spot that this colt falls within the speed/stamina spectrum. If you end it there, there is no doubt that you will come away with what the colt inherited from his elite sires but it will not pinpoint what the colt is actually holding from both sides of the aisle. The first set (the chefs) is the foundation. The second set (the mares) affects the horse’s distance potential drastically and alters that balance. Without consideration of the mare’s influence, the story is left unfinished and truly has an adverse effect in the ability to gauge the potential of the new colt with any sort of accuracy.
His 5 digit chef’s dosage profile is 7-11-8-2-0. In order to understand where these numbers are compiled from, you must consult the chart. Each block will list the sire in his corresponding generation. If you look closely at the statistics within that block you will see information such as the name of the sire, originating country, race record, dollar take-in, etc. You may also see chef designation letters which will appear on the second line and look similar to this: [CS] or [BI] or [P]. This will tell you within a second of looking at the individual block if said sire is a [CS] Classic and Solid Chef, or if he is a [BI] Brilliant and Intermediate Chef and so on. Where that block falls on the chart will tell you how to assign his points. This area is already done for you but it is important to understand what the numbers represent.
The chefs responsible for the greatest influence to Anneau D’or (leading to the eventual layout of his unique profile) are as follows:
First Generation: 16 Points
Second Generation: 8 Points
El Prado – Brilliant and Intermediate Chef - The 8 points will then be split to 4 points in each category.
Third Generation: 4 Points
Sadlers Wells – Classic and Solid Chef – The 4 points will then be split to 2 points in each category.
Pulpit – Intermediate and Classic Chef - Split to 2 points each category.
Fourth Generation: 2 Points
Northern Dancer – Brilliant and Classic Chef – The 2 points will then be split to 1 point in each category.
Sir Ivor – Intermediate and Classic Chef – Split 1 point each category.
Damascus – Intermediate and Classic Chef – Split 1 point each category.
AP Indy – Intermediate and Classic Chef – Split 1 point each category.
Unbridled – Brilliant and Intermediate Chef – Split 1 point each category.
Carson City – Brilliant and Intermediate Chef – Split 1 point each category.
Now each category gets tallied: Annaeu D’Or - Chefs Dosage Profile: 7-11-8-2-0
BRILLIANT (4f to 6f):
El Prado = 4
Northern Dancer = 1
Unbridled = 1
Carson City = 1
TOTAL = 7 points in the first slot of the profile
INTERMEDIATE (7f to 9f):
El Prado = 4
Pulpit = 2 points
Sir Ivor = 1 point
Damascus = 1 point
AP Indy = 1 point
Unbridled = 1 point
Carson City = 1 point
TOTAL = 11 points in the second slot of the profile
CLASSIC (10f to 12f)
Sadlers Wells = 2 points
Pulpit = 2 points
Northern Dancer = 1 point
Sir Ivor = 1 point
Damascus = 1 point
AP Indy = 1 point
TOTAL = 8 points in the third slot of the profile.
SOLID (13f to 15f)
Sadlers Wells = 2 points
TOTAL = 2 points in the fourth slot of the profile
Total = 0 points in the fifth slot of the profile.
The “ingredients” passed down to Anneau from his chefs read 7-11-8-2-0. Much can be garnered from this profile. First, the 7 and 11 as shown in the speed wing of his profile is a very high and substantial amount of points and the dominance is easily read in that Intermediate slot. The 2 found in the Solid slot adds some much needed additional stamina butted against the Classic slot. When these numbers are blended together they offer an index of 3.67. That index falls in the speedier end of the spectrum which of course is easily understood when considering those first two slots. His CD (Center of Distribution) is .82 which is actually somewhat lower than norm with a colt who has a 3.50 or over index. It is in the placement of those points within his profile that dictates his balance. This CD is offering him the extra stamina from the Classic and Solid inheritance passed down from those sires in his chart. If one were to rely strictly on the chefs numbers, they might conclude that Anneau is a speed demon with a lower center of distribution which may ultimately allow him the potential of success of 10f in the Kentucky Derby (by the skin of his teeth). The lower a CD falls (below 1.00 for the Chefs) the longer the horse can sustain his speed. High index (more speed) coupled with an apparent lower CD than norm (more endurance) is a recipe for success in the Kentucky Derby (especially in the rain) and based on the chefs profile of Anneau, he appears right on point to be a possible superfecta player given his chefs balance for that particular race.
But not so fast…
Again, Dr. Roman’s numbers are spectacular photographs of the potential of a new colt and the gratitude for his work is immeasurable. But, herein lies the reason why I consider the work to be a stepping stone and where my theories come into play. I do not believe that a colt is made up of strictly the males and in only the elite sires within a chart. When consulting the mare’s numbers, Anneau’s potential takes a strong and drastic turn. As the history of winning configurations in the Kentucky Derby depict, Anneau’s fate in the Derby itself looks completely different and amazingly bleak when adding in his mares contributions.
The mare’s profile is taken from the elite females who reside along tested and documented bloodlines going back approximately 120 years. These mares will also have an impact on the colt. With documented history to consult as far as winners vs losers in graded stakes races at different distances, their “indexes” are read a bit differently on the scale from their male counterparts.
Anneau D’or Mare Profile: 13-4-1-5-6
A quick glance at that profile and the 13 points in the first slot stands out like a sore thumb. The absolute dominance of inheritance is found in that 4f to 6f category. The elite mares found in this colt’s chart were overtly dominant in passing along sprinters speed. This overtakes the entire profile and forces everything on the speed side to water down the stamina side. This profile configuration results in a mare index of 1.72.
That 1.72 mare index is greatly lower than his chefs 3.67 number but these two separate indexes are NOT read in the same manner. Not even close. After much research and documentation, a mare index over .90 will lend itself to the speed side. The higher it goes above .90, the greater the speed influence, however, it deteriorates the stamina side. Every point it rises above .90 unloads even more speed influence and it shifts that balance affecting his endurance capability. This will have a great effect on the sire’s contribution as well because a colt is made up from both sides. 60% - 40%.
The speed wing (brilliant + intermediate) of his mares offers him 17 points.
The stamina wing (solid + professional) of his mares offers him 11 points.
That is a large 6 point negative difference and tilts that balance to the speed extreme.
1st slot: (B+I+C) 13+4+1=18 → Speed dominate, short and/or early quick speed
2nd slot = (I+C+S) 4+1+5=10 → Nosedives at the Classic distance
3rd slot = (C+S+P) 1+5+6=12 → Stays below Derby par in extreme stamina inheritance
In Anneau’s case, the chef’s ultimate index and CD alone would look promising for a shot at the title in the 10f Kentucky Derby. They depict a colt who has a very nice amount of inherited chef speed which is an advantage in any Graded stakes dirt race (especially the Derby) because it takes speed to get to the wire first. His lower .82 CD is nicely matched up which could allow him to carry that speed closer to that 10f. If you looked strictly at these numbers and take them at face value, you will be hardheartedly deceived.
The addition of the mare’s numbers to those chef’s numbers tip the balance in the opposite direction for the Kentucky Derby. There is barely a drop of additional stamina and the extreme amount of speed inherited from those mares combine to a horse who has absolutely no chance of navigating the 10f in Kentucky. When the numbers are combined and the CD's are blended, this colt drops to an optimum of approx 8.4f. (How we get there will be saved for a future article.)
Anneau D'or has an extreme inheritance of speed from both sides. Additionally, the closest chef to him in his chart is El Prado in his second generation. El Prado is a Brilliant and Intermediate Chef which also points to a greater chance of stronger influence there. Anneau's inheritance displays high Speed inheritance that wins races consistently in the 7f to 8.5f range. The addition of the mares contribution tells a completely different story from reliance on the chefs alone and abruptly cuts this colt’s winning distance capability substantially.
If those triads were reversed, this colt would be a serious Derby contender. He would have gained his substantial amount of speed from his chefs (3.67) and he would have gained a ton of stamina power from his mares in order to sustain all of that speed. Speed on top, stamina on the bottom - perfectly balanced. Unfortunately this is not the case. He gained speed from both the top and the bottom which historically does not work in the 10f Derby. These numbers are spectacular for a miler but nowhere near a Classic distance runner. His speedy mare pedigree dramatically puts a damper on his Kentucky Derby dreams.
This colt may not have the proper inheritance to navigate the 10f of the Derby and sometimes a horse is not built for one race but sure is built for another. Anneau D'or has one of the best combined sets of winning numbers that I have seen in a very long time for the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. He would be basically alone in that gate with the strongest inheritance of 8f speed garnered from the combination of chefs and mares in his chart. His advantage over the rest of those competing (as far as breeding goes) in that particular race over the Keeneland track would be beyond magnificent. This guy should be geared and pointed directly to that race immediately.